It’s been a ride, folx. Some of you, you’re here because of completionism. You stopped by every other week and ya just gotta finish out the season, even though you’re out of the playoffs now. Others — you’re still fighting for the championship. What can I say — if you show up, I’m here to help. So let’s jump in and see what we can do to help you bring home the trophy.
Friends — this is my last article for the 2021 fantasy football season. For those that are regulars, you know that I’m heading over to Razzball Baseball to talk pitchers, and my first article on Shohei Ohtani is already in the hopper, just ready for that 2nd week in January debut. Razzball Football will continue with off-season content, so please do hang around and chat with us about the players you like and all the stats you want to see in 2022.
Much like last week, I’m going to simply be present here to answer comments. Donkey Teeth will take the last Game Day of the year to help you with those championship teams, and to be honest, that’s probably for the best. I think he’s being kind of mum about it, but DT’s going head-to-head with a legend on NFC right now and — I don’t want to jinx anything — but DT’s in the lead. Hopefully, he can help your teams claim that championship as well.
I suppose it’s time for my own industry league wrap-up: Blah. Most of my teams were destroyed in the first half of the season due to injuries. I’m sitting in 8th place with an outside chance at 6th place in the DataForce Charity League, and I’m hoping to bury Jake Ciely this week if I can somehow summon a massive game from AJ Brown. I checked out of the RazzBowl after the first round of the playoffs thanks to having zero RB remaining on my roster. My FTN team finished about .500 with — again — no healthy RBs remaining on the roster. Another .500 finish in a league comprised mostly of QBList/RotoBaller members. Can you guess what happened there? In an eliminator with Andy Behrens of Yahoo, I managed to hang on until I was the fifth team from the end. Lastly, a bottom-third overall finish in DFS Wars, although I was playing more for big days than playing an overall cash method. I did claim some top weekly finishes in DFS Wars, which is what I wanted. I’d rather claim a victory than finish 4th overall every week but without a win.
Part of my concern for my meh performance in 2021 was that I often resorted to Hero RB builds; I abandoned my own suggestions to focus on Robust RB, and this year that particularly hurt me. Next year — maybe next year — I’ll follow my advice.
Thanks so much for following along this season, and I look forward to chatting with you in 2022!
Thanks for your efforts.
It has been a strange season and my situation has meant that I am now regretting cutting some players through the season because of the bye weeks.
Anyway, I (11-4) am in the championship game against the commish (10-5). And have lost both James Robinson and Henderson.
My roster
Brady
A Jones, Michel
Adams, Moore (Car)
Andrews
Flex – McLaurin
Folk
Dallas
IDP x 3
BN :-Dillon, Edmonds, Scott, D Williams, Valdes-Scantling
FA’s :- Burkhead, Ogunbowale
Mckenzie, Beasley, Boyd
Gould, Crosby
Bears, Dolphins
Would you make any changes to my starting roster or even pick up any FA’s?
Best wishes and thanks again for your help,
Another Dan
Hey AD, thanks for the support! I see you’re thinking about the Ogunbowale train — a couple other sites are finally catching up to Razzball levels of hype for him. Problem is, our hype is ironic — we love him precisely because he’s so ineffective lol. Especially against NE, I can see the Ogunbowale hail mary backfiring; I wouldn’t be surprised if Bevell is tasked with getting Trevor Lawrence a couple TDs under his belt before the off-season. ENYWHEY. DJ Moore ended up with 11ish targets last week and couldn’t convert most of them, which sucks. He’s the smart play, though. Perhaps instead of McLaurin, I’d consider MVS in FLEX because MIN is awful and the game could end up in a frozen shootout.
It’s a bold move, but if you really want to play the numbers, Burkhead in FLEX is the way to go. Does he have the track record? Not really. Does he have momentum? Yup.
So, if you’re feeling good about your lineup, just consider swapping your current flex. If you’re feeling like you need a bold play, then Burkhead comes to your rescue. Good luck!
Thank you for a great column season! Honestly I wish you’d share more here about players and trends.
I’m in two championship games this week. Here are my dilemmas.
0.5 PPR
TE: Gerald Everett, Cole Kmet or Pat Friermuth
D: New Orleans or Indy
RB. (Choose 2): Najee, Ekler, Sony
Other championship
D: Dallas or NE
Thanks for the support! I wish I shared more about trends at this point too lol, but after prepping waiver wire plays for weeks and getting “do I start Josh Palmer” comments in return, I feel the AMA is the best way to spend whatever remaining energy I have.
Other championship D is my easiest: NE is very likely going to thrash JAX and make a point of it. Start NE.
First championship: I take Everett there at TE and take advantage of the Lions DEF that will likely try to stop one of the other WR. Lions *do* want to come out of the year with more than 2 wins so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trying to fight back against SEA, which could open more scoring opportunities.
I probably go with NO at DEF because CAR is doing this ridiculous QB carousel to see what they need to do in the off-season.
I take Ekeler and Sony into battle.
Hope that helps! Good luck!
Thank you!!
See over on the baseball side next year!
I feel your pain EWB, losing RB’s killed me in 4 leagues and Waller killed me in 2. Great effort from you though, top notch!
I have 1 lonely team left in a championship. Give me one last helpful piece of advice and have yourself a Happy New Year!
PPR Gabriel Davis, Zay Jones or Gallup?
May sound crazy but could you see my reasoning for thinking Gronk (with little work) lays an egg again? Bench him at my flex for one of the guys above or Burkhead?
Hey Mike, thanks for the support!
Tough call on WR, but I’d prefer Gallup there in a matchup that could become a shootout. I like Davis conceptually but he’s under contract for a few more years and the Bills don’t need to rush him back out and give him a ton of work with a team that seems healthier this week (seems being the key word).
Yeah Gronk is struggling. In theory he’s a good play but his catch rate is something under 50% over the past month, which is awful. Still, the smart money says Gronk figures it out and will post a big game soon. The risky money is, of course, on the Texans’ running back. That said, the Texans have had a surprisingly useful offense for fantasy recently (Davis Mills has been a top 12 QB 3 weeks straight) so that’s causing a correlated increase in rushing success as defenses have to adjust. So, if you feel like your team needs a kick, go with Burkhead. If you feel strongly about your team, then Gronk it is. Good luck!
At TE , should I start geiski, Noah fant, or Cole Kmet?
When do donkey teeth ratings come out?
,
DT’s rankings posted this morning, so have a look!
I start Gesicki there. Good luck!
Thanks for the work all season. I’ve been ready for baseball for a while, but since I stumbled into the championship game I guess it’s football for 1 more week.
16 team league, 6 pt pass TD -2 INT
Struggling with starting Kyler at QB and Dallas D against each other. I ravaged the wire and added QB and Defense.
QB: Kyler, Taysom, Fields, Wentz
DEF: Dallas, Bears
Which combo will give me the fewest headaches?
As much as the internet criticizes the Short King Kyler, he’s been a top 12 QB 3 out of the last 4 weeks (and that other week was QB 15) with a top 6 and a top overall finish. He gives you the best opportunity for a big game. Don’t second guess yourself in the big game of the season — start your studs.
Go ahead and start CHI against NYG — should be a good matchup.
Good luck and hope to see you on the baseball side!
Here we go… final lineup for all the chips… I have no idea how I made it here with no RBs left on my roster, especially with CMC being useless for most of the year
QB – Stafford
WR – Jefferson, Deebo
RB – Penny, ???
TE – Goedert???
FLEX – Waddle???
K – Prater???
D – Da Bears
So here are my questions:
1. In my 2nd RB spot: Dare Ogunbowale, Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, Rhamondre, or Justin Jackson?
2. Goedert or Knox?
3. Flex spot: Do I go Waddle, Diontae, or my leeg winner Amon St. Brown? I am so tempted to go Amon St. Brown, but if the Dolphins are going to force feed Waddle to break Anquan Bolden’s record, then I gotta go Waddle
4. Any word if Prater will get Andy Lee back as holder? If not, I’m thinking going with McPherson…
Congrats in making it here! Naturally we’re starting Rashaad Penny and Dare Ogunbowale in the championship game, right? lol
As I noted above, Razzballers have always had a soft spot for Dare, mostly because he’s this weird scatback that at one point was supposed to be taking big reps in TB and is now like the least interesting RB in the league. That said, Rudy has him as a flex this week, and I’d be a little more critical about that ranking; NE ain’t gonna let Dare get the best of them.
I’d prefer Scott myself in that 2nd RB. I’d prefer Knox over Goedert.
You know, Rudy has ARSB over Waddle this week, which is surprising, but when we look at the massive targets ASRB has been getting combined with his catch rate, that looks like he’s over-produced recently; regression hits fast and the last thing I want to do is recommend a guy that seems like he’s playing slightly above his pay grade. We expected this performance from Waddle, and you’re right — he’s got a motivation — so I’d personally go Waddle this week.
We were joking about the holder question in Razzball chat — The Joey called it his favorite comment of the year! Definitely made his day. McPherson is a fine swap — CIN offense has been fire and there’s plenty of ammo in a game against KC, so i’d just swap them and put your mind at rest. Rudy has them basically equal for median outcome, and I might even prefer the CIN matchup given how efficient and effective CIN has been recently.
Good luck!
I need some team to give me a Justin Jackson type guy due to Covid protocols to bail me out of that 2nd RB spot
This is an anti-Dare Ogunbowale response.
i’ve been going back and forth for weeks on mcpherson/gould (out on gould with lance in this week, and out if jimmer g plays while hurt), should’ve just stuck with mcpherson for his last 3-4 as CIN’s offense has been running well. i’m starting ogun in many flex spots (mostly deep leagues) but his downsides could be really bad:
1. JAX has almost no offensive output could easily happen (could be said every week really of course, but for sure even j-rob’s had horrible outings even when healthy)
2. JAX gives more snaps to somebody else that doesn’t seem to make any sense or couldn’t have been foreseen in advance that isn’t ogun (could easily happen, and those players wouldn’t even have to be t.austin or somebody who’s gotten reps this year yet, we’ve seen that from other teams, see MIA’s duke johnson blow up week just lately, then back to 3 headed timeshare the week after, that’s just one example)
was about to say i’d think it crazy to have ARSB (if goff doesn’t play for sure) over waddle, but then i just looked up as of now’s top 30 only indexed WR PPR FP rankers (rudy’s for this week not yet input to there) and ARSB is 16th to waddle’s 14th, so they don’t think it’s too crazy. my guess is most of those rankers DO think goff is playing. it’s tricky in these spots, as even if you go back right before sunday’s games start and index only to those top guys that also updated their rankings as of sunday, you can’t be completely sure that all of the rankers updated knowing it’s boyle or goff when they did their final rankings (obviously the farther away from sunday you look this gets worse), nor do we know right now how many of them assumed goff/boyle is playing, nor if/how much they might’ve baked the “is it goff or boyle QB’ing” into that ranking. it’s entirely possible that they did and ARSB gets ahead of waddle by sunday (esp if goff is playing) by their consensus rankings.
If I gotta say one thing as a guy who has input rankings into Fantasy Pros, studied the ECR both under my own tools and under Rudy’s, and has claimed 2 top ten finishes this year in the weekly rankings and developed a method where I’m regularly in the top 25% and have never dropped below the 50% mark (sorry I forgot to upload some weeks so I’m not year-long eligible): I wouldn’t trust ECR lol.
Some of those guys ranking are doing *everything* possible to be conservative and win the ECR rather than win somebody’s league.
Both Waddle and ARSB have about the same median scoring expectation right now, so that’s when I’d turn the choice over to narrative — surrounding QBs, gameplan, and “regression” (or buy low or whatever people want to call it). Dunno if that helps, just wanted to chime in lol
right i do that too, when the median’s come in close it goes to something else subjective, like assumptions of certain game narratives and such. the boring rankers trying to win ECR actually can be FAR less worse than somebody throwing some name +45 or -35 though, trying to be different is great if you are playing against 1000 other people trying to get top 10% (or whatever the % is), but regular h2h (i.e. fantasy football leagues) floor is a real thing. we can use an example here, DT’s great win this year was being highest on JT (if we forgot that we’d hear about it again in 2 weeks or less i’m certain), but what happened to people that took k.johnson over ADP from following that (2 years and 1 year ago pretty sure)? reaches can be great, or horrible. obv mixing upside and floor is the goal the shallower the league is (as in those the replacement player level is much higher).
yeah being 25% a good bit of the time out of 180+ rankers is quite good. being top 50 all the time is good too.
the deeper the league is the more i’m going rudy though, the snaps/metrics hold more sway. if you go just upside in 16-20 teamers with bad playing time you’ll likely sometimes be top 3 and most of the time worse than 10th. i’m in that group that always gets at least say 5th and then it’s all about who’s healthy who goes off, who gets lucky in the playoffs. but like real life (esp baseball with it’s goofy short “series”), anybody that makes the playoffs might win (seriously look at baseball the last 10 years, all it takes is decent or better pitching (esp if it’s great pitching) and bats to get hot for like somewhere around 2 weeks), but obv not making the playoffs you sure can’t. obviously if you are playing 1000+ DFS (or deep field poker tournaments, same thing) getting 15th percentile ain’t worth anything (or close to not worth anything), getting a lot of 855ths (or so) along with a couple top 5 finishes you are winning, huge. the guys that barely cash often (including in some instances those that cash the most) in poker tourneys often lose money overall, but the guys that go out on day 1 most of the time but when they get deep get top finishes are the big winners as the money is all up top.
when i say at least 5th i’m referencing 16-20 teamers, getting 5th in a 12’er if routinely that sucks (but is better than worse). i do my fair share of winning not JUST 5th.
lets get down to it!!!
Survived last weeks 24points combined from Stafford,T HIll,A JOnes, J Robinson
Need 2 rb/2 wr 1 flex
QB -Stafford
RB -A Jones/ R Jones/Sony Michel/R Penny/(lost CEH/J Rob)
WR-Deebo/T hill/Cee Dee/T Mcl/
TE M Andrews
K Fold
D Dallas or Bills
Am I overthinking
thinking r jones/sony /penny playing Crappy McCrappinton Ds
BTW the team im playing is loaded..
burrows/ekeler/najai/k allen/jut jeff/cupp
Woof, I had the Stafford/Robinson combo in my DFS Wars lineup and got rewarded with a solid last place finish. So gross.
I don’t think it’s crazy — Rudy has Jones/Penny tied for median outcome, so we’re likely getting a better result by narrating it ourselves. Do we think Jones has a big game against MIN? MIN is awful, but my suspicion is ARog would love to dagger Mike Zimmer’s career by handing out a big L and throwing it a ton. Meanwhile Penny gets a nice Dome and the Lions…could be big.
If you need a big game, I’m more likely to play contrarian. If you think you’re already going to lose, might as well put out your riskiest plays and go down with a bang. Last thing I’d wanna do is say, “Well, Aaron Jones made sense, but the Vikings fought back and it was a 40-37 game and Jones had 6 carries on the day.”
And ultimately, it’s your team — play with the level of risk and upside that makes you happy. Good luck!
Am I worried about jimmy gs injury, for deebi?
I have both ceedee and t hill also looks like Mike will s out of covid.
They’re all fine; Deebo’s been getting a fair chunk of value from running, which will be QB independent. Trey Lance has also not sucked when we’ve seen him this year, so I’m fine putting Deebo out there. For the championship, I don’t think you can second guess your top players, but as we approach game time, you should be fielding a team that feels comfortable to you. If Deebo isn’t jiving for you, let him sit; there’s about a 40% chance he has a “great” game and another 30-40% that his performance is just “acceptable.” Is “acceptable” enough for your team, or do you need “great”? That’s the question you gotta ask — and if you need a high risk gamble, then you’re looking at sitting Deebo in favor of somebody like Penny. Good luck!
8 Team League so I’m always faced with the issue of WDIS:
QB: Justin Herbert
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Deebo Samuel
WR: Ceedee Lamb
RB: Sony Michel
RB: David Montgomery
TE: George Kittle
FLEX: Tee Higgins
BN: Josh Jacobs
BN: Antonio Gibson
BN: Darrel Williams
I’m worried Tee (or Ceedee) in my flex is a lower floor than one of my bench RBs, but I get the feeling I should gun for higher ceiling (even though I’m projected 25 pts above my opponent….if that even means anything)
Thanks for your insight this season!
Yeah, RBs are always a higher floor/higher ceiling option than most WR, and I think you’re probably right to think about Jacobs or Gibson in your FLEX. I’d prefer Jacobs myself, but it’s up to you who gets the nod. Good luck!
Hello again!
What DEF do you like for this week?
PHI
SF
MIA
CHI
IND
Also… Daulton Schultz vs Gronk… ?
Van Jefferson vs DJ Moore?
Thank you as always!
Nothing better than targeting HOU in a championship week, so I go with SF. Take the smart play there.
I’d be more comfortable with Gronk and stats say that he’ll come back in a big way soon, but I won’t hate you if you want some comfort with Schultz.
I’d prefer Moore there this week. Good luck!
Thanks brother!
Yo Blair first off thanks for all your help this season. Between the articles and responding to all of my questions you played a part of me getting to the chip so thanks again and I will be bothering you next year for sure. Now to the important stuff. Please choose 1 RB and 1FLEX for PPR from Najee Harris, Ronald Jones, Edmonds, Darrel Williams, Eli Mitchell and Jamar Chase. I know a lot can change from now to Sunday so hopefully I can ask you again Saturday night or Sunday morning. But who you got right now?
Thanks for the support! I’d prefer a Najee/RoJo combo. Sounds like you’re in a good spot if Chase is your backup FLEX! Good luck in the championship!
Who should I pick for my WR2
Renfrow, mike Williams, or MVS?
Thanks!
I’d prefer Renfrow there — he’s healthy and we’ve seen him produce wr2 or better value for the better part of the past 2 months. Safest play with a good amount of upside. Good luck!
Thank you!!
1: Half PPR. Pick 2 RB & 2 flex
– Najee Harris
– Aaron Jones
– Sony Michel
– Darrell Williams
– Javonte Williams
– Rashad Penny
– Aiyuk
– St Brown
I’d honestly prefer a week of 4 RBs with Najee, AJones, Michel, and Penny. If that’s too mundane, swap ARSB for Penny. Good luck!
What’s up man? I asked you this question earlier in the week but like I said things have changed with guys being out. Question is PPR. Please choose 1RB and 1 Flex from Najee Harris, Ronald Jones, Chase Edmonds, Eli Mitchell ,Darrel Williams and Jamar Chase?
Still rolling with Najee and RoJo. Good luck!
This is what my lineup up currently looks like would you do anything different with the flex? If Antonio brown doesn’t play Who would you start? Non ppr 10 bonus points at 100 Rushing or receiving or 300 passing yd. Would you do anything different with defense. In this league dolphins are #2 defenseand colts #3. Points allowed only matters For defense if it is 10 or under There are no negatives. So doesn’t really matter how much points your defense gives up Mostly about getting sacks, interceptions, etc. Patriots and saints defense are also available But both of the Defense is that I own are ranked higher in this league I’m leaning Miami because they lead to league in sacks and the titans have allowed 4 sacks in each other last 3 games
Qb-Hurts
Wr- D.Samuel
Wr- A.j. Brown
Rb- Kamara
RB- Michel
TE- Kelce
2 Flex -Swift,Antonio Brown
K-McPherson
D-Miami
Bench- Conner,Scott, Ogunbowale, Burkhead,Pollard, Aiyuk, Taysum hill, Colts Defense
Didn’t mean to put That points allowed only Matter for 10 and under You get 10 points if you’re defense allow 0. 3 if it allows 1-6 and that’s all As far as points allowed
Jordan Howard is also available
I’m totally fine with the lineup — good luck in the championship!
I’d defer to you knowing the scoring settings for Team DEF; DEF often have a lot of parity. If you’re feeling better about MIA than NE going against the Jags, then go for it. Statistically, in normal league scoring, one couldn’t do much better than NE this week, but if sacks are what you need, then go for those. Good luck!
Thanks for all the advise this year greatly appreciated
Which two would you play in flex in half ppr?
Brandon Aiyuk
D’Onta Foreman
Courtland Sutton
Foreman for me. Good luck!