We’re back for another weekend of NFL football. Can you believe it’s already week three? The buildup to the season seems so long but the season itself flies by. Blink and it’ll be gone, so get yourself ready.
How did you do last week? If you started players like Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Malik Nabers, you probably did fairly well. In fact, here is the lineup for last week’s DraftKings millionaire contest.
- Daniel Jones
- Alvin Kamara
- Jordan Mason
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris Godwin
- Malik Nabers
- Trey McBride
- K. Dobbins
- Arizona Cardinals
A blend of chalk and contrarian plays won that contest. What I noted most was the lucky winner also chose the QB I recommended in this column last week. You’re welcome!
Seriously though, congratulations. Let’s see if we can find a few more hidden gems for this week’s games, regardless of your preferences – DFS or props.
As a reminder, there’s no secret to how I come up with my recommendations. Here at Razzball, we have both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props. Below you’ll find my high-end and low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups. Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.
One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE or just visit our site at football.razzball.com.
Paying Up
- Player: Derek Carr
- Game: Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
- DK: $5,800 / FD: $7,900
Fantasy football’s #2 QB is underpriced in my opinion. Derek Carr comes into Week 3 with 5 TDs in his pocket, an 11.5 yards per pass average and the league’s highest scoring offense. The struggling Eagles defense travels to the Bayou after allowing 240+ and 2 TDs to Kirk Cousins. Also, if you want to stack him with Rashid Shaheed (DK: $5,300, FD: $6,300), I don’t hate it. See the Razzball Defensive Slot vs Wide PPG Allowed tool to see why you should like slot WRs against the Eagles.
- Player: Travis Etienne
- Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
- DK: $7,000 / FD: $7,000
Travis Etienne is not churning out the yards at the clip we want but he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games. He’s also being targeted 3-4 times a game. Why is that important? Buffalo gave up a total of 83 yards and a score to James Conner in Week 1 and 165 total yards and a receiving TD to De’von Achane last Monday night. We like trends and if you’re opting to pay up for RB this week, Etienne is a good buy.
- Player: Davante Adams
- Game: Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders
- DK: $7,600 / FD: $7,800
Davante Adams is set up for a huge game against the Panthers. The Panthers utilize a single-high formation almost three quarters of the dime, second highest rate in the NFL. Against those coverages, Adams has a 48% target share and 65% air-yard share. Expect 10+ targets and yards over the century mark once again.
- Player: Kyle Pitts
- Game: Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs
- DK: $5,000 / FD: $6,200
Here’s an interesting stat for you. In their first two games, the Chiefs opponents were led in receiving by their TE. Likely went for 9-111-1 in Week one and Gesicki led the way for the Bengals with 7-91. Will this trend continue? We’re finally seeing the Pitts we hoped for, as he’s currently the TE8 in fantasy. This one comes down to protecting Kirk Cousins. If the Falcons can give him some time, Pitts has a decent chance of leading the Falcons in receiving.
Bargain Shopping
- Player: Sam Darnold
- Game: Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings
- DK: $5,500 / FD: $7,100
Sam Darnold has thrown for 475+ yards, 4 TDs and “only” 2 INTs in his first two games. Houston currently ranks in the bottom quarter of the league vs QBs, even after reminding everyone that Caleb Williams is a rookie. So, it’s safe to say Darnold is in line for much of the same as his first two games. The news of Justin Jefferson expecting to play helps fortify the potential. Take the discount.
- Player: Jaylen Warren
- Team: Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- DK: $5,300 / FD: $5,500
Jaylen Warren took a back seat to Najee Harris (DK: $5,600, FD: $6,400) in Week 1, and we all wondered what was going on. In Denver last week, we saw a more equally shared workload (snaps), including a 2:1 snap share in the red zone. Harris is still taking the bulk of the carries, but they are both active in the passing game. This is the third week in a row where the Chargers face a 1-2 RB punch, each of the previous duos finding moderate success. The difference here, these two are much more talented and Warren is trending up at a cheaper cost (on FD, specifically). I highlight Warren as the cheaper buy if you have depleted funds, but feel free to considering either one of the Steelers backs.
- Player: Jahan Dotson
- Team: Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
- DK: $4,500 / FD: $5,500
Yes, this is a super-deep, super-cheap WR play. Besides the price, here’s why I’m suggesting this low-cost option: A.J. Brown is going to be out again. The Eagles are reeling and need to find a new path. DeVonta Smith (DK: $6,900, FD: $8,000) needs help. Dallas Goedert (DK: $4,600, FD: $5,800) has a total of 7 receptions for 69 yards. The Saints defense is 10th worst in allowing WR points per game, with 63% out wide (see the Razzball Defensive Slot vs Wide PPG Allowed tool). Dotson is the only other Eagles WR playing a majority of the team snaps and runs most of his routes out wide (Smith is more evenly split). The Saints have the #1 offense in the NFL so the Eagles need to score points. Did I say the Eagles are reeling and are desperate for a win? This all points to Dotson having an expanded role.
- Player: Pat Freiermuth
- Team: Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- DK: $4,000 / FD: $5,200
TE has been a disaster for the most part this season. Case in point, Pat Freiermuth has yet to top 50 receiving yards or score a TD but is amongst the top 10 in fantasy circles. Crazy. So, why the recommendation here? He’s drawing an 19% target share, has a 100% catch rate, and draws a plus matchup against the Chargers who allow the 12th most receiving yards to TE.
Prop Plays
Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.
Baker Mayfield (Yards, 2+ TDs): I’m going back to the well with the fantasy QB1 as he faces an 0-2 Broncos team which hasn’t yet faced a high-volume passing attack.
D’Andre Swift (Yards, Anytime TD): Swift has yet to impress in his new colors but that’s about to change. The Colts’ run defense is getting man-handled and allowed the third-highest yards before contact per attempt. The Bears O-line isn’t in the same league as the Packers or Texans but expect a “get right” game for Swift here.
Tony Pollard (Rush + Receiving, Anytime TD): Pollard is averaging two-thirds of snaps, over 20 touches and almost 100 yards per game. The Packers defense ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game.
George Pickens (Yards, Anytime TD): The Jaguars defense allows almost 38 points per game to WRs, almost 75% to wideouts. Pickens is the team’s leading passing target and running over two-thirds out wide.
Jerry Jeudy (Receptions, Yards): The Giants defense is one of the league leaders in utilizing the two-high safety formation. Against such defenses, Jeudy has a 20% target share and a 50+ air-yard share.
Greg Dortch (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): He’s averaging 5 receptions per game and running 75%+ of his routes from the slot (slot WRs are scoring the 5th most points against the Lions).
Dalton Kincaid (Yards, Anytime TD): Dalton Kincaid is yet another TE that’s gotten off to a slow start. To his credit though, his lack of production has been more about the game and not the player. The Bills started to get him more involved early against the Dolphins but between a strong run game and the score getting out of hand, there wasn’t a need. The Jaguars have been pretty good against TEs so far but this one feels prime for a Kincaid breakout.
That’s All Folks
Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
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Until next time, my friends!
