Week 3 Starts and Sits: Home/Road and Win/Loss Players Splits

“Mommy, Bo Nix bit me!”

I am not a fan of starting a column with an apology, so this week I’ll offer two. 1) apparently, Mr. Nix takes great offense at being told to sit down, and 2) I didn’t read the memo that I would use TWO of RazzballNFL’s fabulous FREE data points to do my analyses.

Welcome to my first column for the 2025 season using the Razzball Home/Road AND the Win/Loss Players Splits tools available for free on RazzballNFL. If at first I don’t succeed…

Last season, we established that this tool won’t necessarily be useful for deciding to start the top 24 running backs or top 24 wide receivers in a given week’s rankings, but could be useful to point out a player for further consideration when deciding to sit him. This tool won’t be a decision point as much as a compass. The start recommendations will be deeper players outside the top 24 of the RB/WR pools. If I recommend a tight end, it would likely be someone outside the top 12 of those week’s rankings.

For the numbers below for Home/Road and Win/Loss: positive numbers mean a player scores more at home or in wins, and negative numbers mean a player scores more on the road or in losses. The H/R Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in home games divided by those scored in road games and the W/L Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in wins divided by those scored in losses: an index of 100 means the numbers are equal, more than 100 means the player scores more at home or in wins, and less than 100 means the player scores more on the road or in losses.

How I approach this: First, I need rankings: I choose FantasyPros as they’re free and they use several analysts to amalgamate. Second, I look at the H/R and W/L databases for an edge. Third, I look at spreads and over/under for how the public sees the games (I use ESPNBET). Those are candidates. The work after would consume too much of this column, but I will say PFF is a great ally.

Let’s look at some players for Week 3.

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool

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Player: D’Andre Swift

Team: Chicago Bears

FantasyPros PPR Rank: RB 26, 12.2 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: RB 22, 11.7 points/game

Spread: +1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys, O/U 50.5

Home/Road: +2.9, H/R Index 126

Win/Loss: +6.7, W/L Index 163

Swift got in hot water after fumbling against Detroit. He also hurt his calf and has been limited in practice this week. And something’s going on with the left side of the offensive line: while the rest of the starters stayed on the field for the end of the blowout, left tackle Braxton Jones did not. It’s possible Jones is not fully recovered from the ankle surgery he had after the 2024 season, but he had a rough go of it Sunday, allowing 7 pressures, 5 hurries, and 2 sacks. Second-stringer Theo Benedet finished the game.

That’s the bad news; the good? Swift ceded carries to Kyle Monangai, but he was still called on to punch in the Bears’ final touchdown. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, but I’m still looking at Swift as the RB1 in Chicago.

Since coming to Chicago, Swift has been averaging more points at home, especially against poorer run defenses. Dallas has yet to show that they’re not one of them this year. And his three biggest games of 2024 were during the three-game win streak they had before collapsing. I think the Bears will pull this one out at home, so I’m taking the points.

Tony Pollard, J.K. Dobbins, and Omarion Hampton are ranked ahead of him this week. I’ll take Swift over them.

Recommendation: START                                                                                                                                                       

 

Player: Courtland Sutton

Team: Denver Broncos

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 25, 12.9 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 47, 9.9 points/game

Spread: +2.5 at Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 45.5

Home/Road: +0.1, H/R Index 101

Win/Loss: +0.5, W/L Index 104

I do this fully knowing the Broncos nearly always make me eat my words. If this were easy, I’d…well, let’s face it: I’d do it anyway.

The indices show that over time, Sutton is about as consistent as they come. He had a beautiful game at home against Tennessee in Week 1, but a dud against the Colts in Indianapolis, where he only had 4 targets and 1 reception for 6 yards. That was partly due to CB Xavien Howard giving up 8 receptions on 8 targets, while the combination of CB Mekhi Blackmon, FS Camryn Bynum, and SS Nick Cross teamed up to help shut down Sutton.

I’d argue the Chargers’ secondary is better, and so is their pass rush: they got 6 hits and 11 hurries on Patrick Mahomes and 2 hits and 16 hurries on Geno Smith. And most of the chasing they did in Las Vegas was without Khalil Mack. We’ll find out how much Bo Nix likes to run.

Jakobi Meyers, George Pickens, and Terry McLaurin are ranked below Sutton this week. I like them all better, even if Jayden Daniels doesn’t play.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Player: Marquise Brown

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 32, 12.7 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 20, 14.0 points/game

Spread: -6.5 at New York Giants, O/U 45.5

Home/Road: -5.5, H/R Index 61

Win/Loss: -4.9, W/L Index 65

The indices are split here. There is also not a lot of data to work with: Brown has only played in four regular-season games since the beginning of the 2024 season, and the data is skewed toward the Week 1 road loss, where Brown was targeted 16 times and had 10 receptions for 99 yards – 19.9 PPR points. He hasn’t had as many as 10 points in any of the other three games.

But I was led here by the data points.

The Chiefs have not shown any acumen for running the football this season outside of Patrick Mahomes. They could get well against the Giants: the Giants are dead last in yards allowed vs. the run. They’re also 29^th in yards allowed vs. the pass, and the upshot of Brown’s small four-game sample is that, even when he played less than 50% of the snaps, he commanded 5+ targets.

I suppose it’s hopeful to think the first home game of the season, in prime time, the close game in Dallas, and the potential return of LT Andrew Thomas will fire up the Giants. These are intangibles.

But the 0-2 Chiefs may have more at stake. The Giants’ secondary did not grade well in either of the first two games. They’re certainly not the Eagles’ secondary.

Contrarian that I am, I like Brown more if Xavier Worthy returns. The Giants would have to focus more on Worthy than on Tyquan Thornton.

I like Brown this week over Devonta Smith and D.J. Moore.

Recommendation: START

 

Player: Jameson Williams

Team: Detroit Lions

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 31, 12.7 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 27, 12.7 points/game

Spread: +4.5 at Baltimore Ravens, O/U 53.5

Home/Road: +4.7, H/R Index 146

Win/Loss: +2.5, W/L Index 123

Williams is a hand grenade that can explode on any play. The Packers held to 26 yards on 5 touches, then Williams only had 2 touches against the Bears: a 64-yard reception down the seam and a post where Williams blew away the defender for a 44-yard touchdown. 18.8 PPR points on 2 touches.

The Lions are transitioning to John Morton running the offense: there are commonalities to the offense Ben Johnson ran, and there are also new elements.

The Ravens had a lot of trouble down the stretch in Buffalo, and a lot of that was shooting themselves in the foot in the fourth quarter: three missed tackles on a 51-yard James Cook reception, a DPI on 3^rd-and-3 from the Baltimore 37 two possessions later, a Derrick Henry fumble on the next Ravens’ possession caused by an Ed Oliver punch-out, a three-and-out after Buffalo trimmed the lead to 2.

They looked better at home against the Browns, but still gave up 323 yards.

At CB, Chidobe Awuzie has been solid both games, and Nate Wiggins rebounded nicely at home against the Browns, but they’ve been soft in the middle, and that’s where Williams burned the Bears for the 44-yard TD. You may say, “That’s where Amon-Ra EATS,” which is true, but Amon-Ra lines up outside nearly half the time, and Williams lines up nearly equally in all zones across the field. I also think Goff rebounds on the road this week and will play better than he was able to in Green Bay.

I’m bucking the indices. The Lions have only had three losses in the regular season covered by our DB and two of those were at home; Williams’ two highest PPR point games of 2024 came in their last two road games. I’m betting the Green Bay game was an aberration.

I like Williams this week over George Pickens, Jakobi Meyers, and Courtland Sutton.

Recommendation: START

 

Player: T.J. Hockenson

Team: Minnesota Vikings

FantasyPros PPR Rank: TE 10, 9.6 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: TE 43, 3.4 points/game

Spread: -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 41.5

Home/Road: -2.1, H/R Index 78

Win/Loss: +6.3, W/L Index 345

This is low-hanging fruit. I won’t go on and on here.

Hockenson’s two best games since coming back from surgery in 2024 came against the Jaguars and the Bears on the road. He’s averaged 7.4 PPR points in 6 home games.

With J.J. McCarthy under center, he had 4 receptions for 27 yards on 7 targets in two games combined. He blocked on 30 of 79 snaps in which he participated.

Carson Wentz has more experience than McCarthy, and he may actually be a better short-term option for the Vikings’ passing game through the lens of fantasy football.

But while the Bengals can be prone to giving up PPR points to tight ends, the Vikings’ offensive line has gotten no better with McCarthy’s injury, and the Bengals put enough pressure on Trevor Lawrence that Brenton Strange was needed to block on 26 of the 64 plays he was on the field.

This is easy for me. I like Kyle Pitts or either of the Cleveland tight ends more than Hock.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Player: Keenan Allen

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 35, 12.5 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 12, 18.5 points/game

Spread: -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos, O/U 45.5

Home/Road: +1.6, H/R Index 113

Win/Loss: -2.8, W/L Index 80

I throw the indices out here as Keenan was with Chicago for most of the games in the database. The Chargers haven’t played a true home game nor had a loss in 2025.

I’ll say this qualitatively: Keenan Allen produces when he’s healthy. He’s not as good as he was as recently as 2023, and he hasn’t played a full season since 2021, but he had 121 targets in a messed-up offense in 15 games in 2024 and could eclipse that number this year with a better quarterback on a much better team.

I’m not sure how FantasyPros ranks him 35^th for Week 3, but then again, I look at the names ahead of him and the fact that the 23^rd-ranked receiver is only forecasted to have 0.4 more PPR points than Allen, and it’s hard to argue.

As good as the Broncos’ defense is, they gave up 306 net passing yards to the Colts last week on the road. CBs Pat Surtain and Riley Moss did not grade very well and gave up 13 receptions on 17 targets for 153 yards. I worry when they face Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston, although they won’t have to deal with Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren.

I still like Allen ahead of everyone this week until we get to Tee Higgins, ranked 23^rd on FantasyPros. That includes Tyreek Hill, who had 15.9 PPR points tonight.

Recommendation: START

 

That’s four starts and two sits after I talked myself into starting Jamo through my analysis.

Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X  and BlueSky @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy, and don’t forget to join us on Sunday mornings of the fantasy football season at 11:00 a.m. EDT for the RazzballNFL Start/Sit show. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 3!