Heading into Week 4, we can all agree on one thing: Josh Allen looks absolutely amazing in shorts. He is fully trusting the process the Bills and Sean McDermott have been preaching. The Titans currently have zero healthy QB’s, but that won’t stop them from being tied for the division lead in the AFC South. Dallas still stinks at throwing the ball to the point where they should be looking at QB’s in the upcoming draft. Also, the Cowboys have 4 TD’s on the entire season. So there’s that. Let’s get into some of the important games this weekend for fantasy.

Bengals @ Falcons

Starting with the game as a whole, I think you could justify starting 10 different players in this one as it’s sure to be a shootout.

For Cincy, I absolutely love Andy Dalton this week. I have no faith in the Atlanta defense to do anything to slow down his weapons of AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tyler Eifert in the passing game. All three of those should be started. The reason I think all of these guys will get their fair share is because while Green leads the team in target %, he’s only seeing 22% of all targets coming in, which means two things: First is that the ball is being spread around quite a bit. Second is that they are throwing a lot in Cincy. Dalton is averaging around 290 yards and 2.8 TD’s per game. As bullish as I am about the main weapons for Cincy, I’m fading the idea of playing John Ross in this one. He’s just not seen the efficiency in targets over the first three weeks to make me confident enough to start him. Joe Mixon is close to returning, but game script in this one has me believing that they’re gonna be throwing it all the time, so Giovanni Bernard is a risky flex play at best.

Atlanta has been pretty secretive about the health of Devonta Freeman this week, but I’m not expecting him back for this one. It’s another week where Matt Ryan should continue to how top-5 QB numbers, leading Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley to be obvious plays. Julio still is receiving 33% of all targets in Atlanta, but Ridley has seen an uptick in targets the past two weeks, indicating that Matt Ryan is more comfortable throwing the ball his way. You can start Tevin Coleman in this matchup, but keep expectations limited as again, I think this game is going to be an aerial assault across the board.

Browns @ Raiders

So starting in Cleveland, let’s just state right away that Baker Mayfield should absolutely be on the radars for those of you playing DFS. The Raiders rank dead last in QB pressures and sacks this year, so Mayfield should have plenty of time to find his two favorite targets in Jarvis Landry and Antonio Calloway. Landry currently, through 3 weeks, has 40% of all targets in Cleveland. That is the highest in the league. You’re going to be starting Carlos Hyde because he sees a majority of the carries in the backfield. I’m fading David Njoku this week because I want to see how Baker targets him after a week of practice. Cleveland D/ST could be #1 this week with a Jon Gruden Raiders team that can’t seem to do much right on their offensive line.

For the Raiders, yikes. The safest play this week is probably Marshawn Lynch and even then he’s really touchdown dependent. Jordy Nelson had a big beginning of the game last week as Derek Carr clearly trusts him more than Amari Cooper (at this point, you should all know that I think Cooper isn’t even worth rostering in standard or PPR leagues). I’m fading Carr this week as from what was mentioned above, the Raiders do not sport the best OL in the NFL and the Browns have one of the best DL’s in the game. I’m expecting Cleveland to control the line of scrimmage enough to really hinder any fantasy value out of the Raiders. Good luck Chucky!

Dolphins @ Patriots

Now this game has a lot of fantasy tidbits. Let’s start with the seafood where I actually like their chances to pull off an upset here. Ryan Tannehill is 10-1 in his last 11 games that he has played a full 60 minutes. Miami spreads the ball around more than any other team in the NFL Jakeem Grant leads the team in target share with just 18%, meaning that Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson should be excellent plays for you this week. The reason I like Stills and Wilson over Danny Amendola is mostly matchup-related. Adam Gase is no slouch at crafting an offense. He knows that the Pats are hilariously slow on defense and speed guys like Stills and Wilson should thrive in this matchup. Grant is also worth owning in deeper leagues, as his speed is something that is sure to be featured more in the weeks to come. I think Kenyan Drake is still the lead back here, but he has the ceiling this week of a middling RB2.

The Patriots have your big guns going in this one that are worth starting. You’re going to play TB12 Tom Brady just because you can. You are starting Rob Gronkowski because you had to use a second round pick on him and you don’t sit your second round pick just on matchup. So now we get into the only other 3 question marks this offense has. Sony Michel is considered the lead back with Rex Burkhead now on IR, but anyone who has made the deal with the devil and rostered a Patriots RB knows damn well that James White is the back you actually want on a consistent basis, especially in PPR leagues. Michel has RB2 upside, but game script should involve a lot of passing, which is more in the repertoire of White. The biggest wildcard here is whether Josh Gordon looks remotely ok or even dresses. You can play Chris Hogan because he’s by far their best WR, but man I’d be lying if I said I’m confident in Gordon playing.

Bills @ Packers 

Hahaha you knew I was going to bring up the Bills game. Here’s the thing: There’s sneaky value all across this game with high variance. So let’s dive in with the Bills part of this.

Josh Allen (as noted above) looks amazing in shorts and was dynamic in the passing and running game against the Vikings in Week 3. I’ve been calling him to MB and Viz for at least a month now “White Cam Newton” and to be honest, I think it’s only going to get more accurate as time goes on. I obviously don’t know if he has a repeat performance in him (39 rushing yards and 2 TD’s with 196 passing and 1 TD) but I do know that Brian Daboll schemed up one hell of a plan last week. I can see a scenario where Daboll has to keep his foot on the gas for 4 full quarters as Aaron Rodgers is still playing QB on the other side of the ball. LeSean McCoy has said he is ready to play, and I’m curious to see how they will utilize him. I’m guessing that he’ll have more receiving yards than he will have rushing yards, making him a monster in PPR formats. At the WR position, Kelvin Benjamin has looked downright dreadful this year with a multitude of drops on easily catchable balls. That being said, he’s still the target leader for this team and I can see Allen getting a little stubborn and trying to make sure his “WR1” gets his share of touches.

Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers playing quarterback, so you’ll be starting Randall Cobb and Devonte Adams with a sneaky flex start of Geronimo Allison in deeper leagues. Adams leads the team in target share with 23%, so look for him to see 8-10 targets in this one. The Packers have a multitude of RB’s and I frankly don’t think you can confidently start any of them. Jamaal Williams is the safest option for them, Ty Montgomery is more of a WR than he is an RB, and Aaron Jones is the biggest ceiling/lowest floor of the grouping. It should also be noted that Jimmy Graham popped up on the injury report this week (Drink!) and he’ll have Tremaine Edmunds covering him, which is physically not a good matchup for Graham.

That”s it for me this week. Post any questions or concerns you have and I’ll try to get some answers as soon as I can!

  1. Donaldson says:
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    Who do I stream
    Eli vs No
    Joe Flacco vs pit
    Ryan Tannehill vs Ne
    Case vs Kc????

    One of these guys is gonna go off

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Donaldson: I can’t believe i’m going to say this, but for streaming purposes, I’m going with Eli here solely off how bad the NO defense is and I think game script will allow for him to thrive.

  2. steve stevenson says:
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    Ajayi owner. Do I even bother holding Clement as a cuff on my bench, or use that roster spot for something else?

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @steve stevenson: Use that spot for something else

  3. clokwerc says:
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    Got a trade yesterday, Bell for Hyde and Watkins… Any thoughts… Do i take the bait(Bell).. or leave it alone???

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @clokwerc:

      I’m staying away from Bell. People are just desperate to try and trade him at this point and it’s not worth the risk.

  4. clokwerc says:
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    Another ??? Do i start Hyde or D. Thomas flex??

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @clokwerc:

      I’m going to say Thomas solely because of game script. Denver will have to throw often and KC can’t stop anything on defense

  5. Allan says:
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    Made the mistake of starting Cook last night but luckily also started Kupp so I’m about even there. Now I need a flex out of Amari Cooper, Kenyan Drake, and Calvin Ridley. Full PPR. Thanks.

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Allan: Ridley

      They’re gonna throw it and he’s going to be making a lot of plays.

  6. Me says:
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    Reid
    Kupp and Golladay
    Ingram
    Half ppr
    Fair or one-sided?

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Me: You want Kupp and Golladay by a mile.

  7. AA says:
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    Need to choose 2 (1 RB, 1 flex): Drake, Michel, Dede and Callaway. Any suggestions?

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @AA: Drake and Callaway

  8. Teddy says:
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    Trade my DJ to receive either Mark Ingram + kelce . Or Mark Ingram + juju? I’m at my max for WRs I’d have to drop Allison

    My rbs are DJ, Melvin Gordon, Royce Freeman, Kerryon Johnson, brieda , Jamaal Williams, ekeler

    My WRs: Hilton, Keenan Allen, amari Cooper, kupp, Geronimo Allison, Tyler Boyd, Sterling Shepard, Doug Baldwin.

    My TE is Ebron

    Or try DJ + Keenan Allen for Juju + kelce + Aaron Rodgers?

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Teddy:

      If you HAD to make a trade involving DJ, and those were your options, I think I would go Ingram and JuJu.

      That being said, I’m not sold on you even having to make that move. Your WR corps is stacked and I still like Ebron.

      • Teddy says:
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        @Reid:

        Scenario 2, thoughts on my DJ for CMC? Besides that I’m standing pat if Rosen can turn things around that’ll be great Bradford killed DJ & the offense . If Kirk, Fitzgerald can get going that should open things for DJ . I just don’t get how Edmonds was in some drives more than DJ the franchise player

        Even with DJ struggles I’m still happy to have him . The kelce/Ingram/juju owner has virtually no rbs: he has James white , buck Allen , Burkhead, jalen Richard , ivory.

        • Reid

          Reid says:
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          @Teddy: If you can get CMC for DJ, you should be arrested for robbery.

          I’d be very surprised if somebody made the mistake of giving up CMC

  9. rainking99 says:
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    I need help deciding on a Flex player…..standard scoring.

    I have Fournette in RB2 slot for now (haven’t heard if he is OUT again)

    Other players to choose from:

    Phillip Lindsay vs KC (would likely replace Fournette)
    Allen Robinson vs TB
    Aaron Jones vs BUF
    Calvin Ridley vs CIN
    Tyler Boyd @ ATL
    Dion Lewis vs PHI

    I had good performance from Cooks and Cousins so far……

    Thanks!

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @AA: Boyd

  10. Reid

    Reid says:
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    Man I’d lean Boyd right now but if you stick with Fournette, I wouldn’t blame you.

  11. AA says:
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    Standard: Which two would you start this week? Michel, Drake, Aaron Jones, Dede and Callaway?

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @AA: Drake and Callaway

      • AA says:
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        @Reid:
        Thanks!

  12. Jeffrey Gilden says:
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    Hey there –

    Trade question for you. I’m in a one QB league, and I have Cam and Mahomes. I’m thinking of trading one of them. A guy in my league offered me Chris Godwin for Cam. Is that enough? I could use a receiver. I have Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Josh Gordon, and Alshon Jeffry. If Gordon or Jeffry hits, is Godwin enough of an upgrade over what I have? He also has Evans, Adams, Sanders, Allen Robinson in addition to Godwin. Would one of thos ebe a better ask?

    Thanks!

    Jeff

  13. clokwerc says:
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    Thanks Reid… U DA MAN!!! Last 1 for the day, i think… D. Thomas or S. Watkins in that flex position, who looks like the better option??

  14. Chris says:
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    Would you drop Buck Allen for Bilal Powell in a PPR league?

  15. Steve says:
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    Non PPR WR/RB Flex Josh Gordon or Derrick Henry

  16. Tony says:
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    Hi Reid,

    Stay with Collins or take a chance with Aaron Jones? Worried that Steelers with throw a lot at home, take a big lead, then Allen stays on the field more than Collins.

    Thanks!
    tony

  17. The sportsguy says:
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    Eli versus Stafford
    josh Gordon versus Baldwin

    • Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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      @The sportsguy: baldwin if he plays, while it’s possible gordon gets more usage here i doubt it IF baldwin is active.

  18. steve stevenson says:
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    Superflex league and my leaguemates have gone QB crazy. I have Brees w/ a wk 6 bye coming up and the only starters available are Beathard @GB, Dak v Jax, Darnold v Ind and Rosen @Min. Bother with any of them, or just start a WR in that spot? 1/2 PPR.

    • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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      @steve stevenson: that’s a decent amount of QB’s around for a superflex, unless it’s like a 10 teamer (or has small benches and a 12)

  19. Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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    1. 14 team PPR. i’ll list by who i’m thinking of starting, you correct if differing.
    QB (1) luck
    RB: (2) crowell, montgomery (cobb messed up, somebody is getting those short throws), morris, ivory (i guess ivory starts IF doesn’t start AND mccoy doesn’t?)
    WR (3) AB, callaway, goodwin, baldwin, marshall, jeffery, a.wilson
    TE (1) vance, doyle
    1 flex and which of baldwin, jeffery, a.wilson, morris is this?
    IR (2) burkhead, mixon (and drafted mixon/mckinnon as top 2 picks (we keep 2 players))

    2. who’s my drop (if any) for RJ2 (TB), i need any sort of RB depth i can get (thus owning ivory). probably marshall as his value falls to shit with baldwin back.

  20. A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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    1. 14 team PPR. i’ll list by who i’m thinking of starting, you correct if differing.
    QB (1) luck
    RB: (2) crowell, montgomery (cobb messed up, somebody is getting those short throws), morris, ivory (i guess ivory starts IF doesn’t start AND mccoy doesn’t?)
    WR (3) AB, callaway, goodwin, baldwin, marshall, jeffery, a.wilson
    TE (1) vance, doyle
    1 flex and which of baldwin, jeffery, a.wilson, morris is this?
    IR (2) burkhead, mixon (and drafted mixon/mckinnon as top 2 picks (we keep 2 players))

    2. who’s my drop (if any) for RJ2 (TB), i need any sort of RB depth i can get (thus owning ivory). probably marshall as his value falls to shit with baldwin back.

    it’s very obvious morris the RB #2 here IF breida is out. the issue with that is that montgomery plays hours earlier, so morris would be the flex probably for sure in that case. cobb is a gametime, but it’s not a good gametime (no sat practice), pretty sure historically those should %wise count for doubtful.

  21. Tee Not Air Jags says:
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    start which 2 out of cobb (so hurt he couldn’t practice on sat), grant (IND), a.wilson at WR and which of montgomery/cobb at flex (unless mccoy is out then it’s those 2 vs him ivory)

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