We are four weeks in, one quarter of the season complete, and there are very few absolutes to date. Outside of injuries plaguing almost every roster out there, this season has been about as unpredictable as any season in recent memory. Seriously, who had the TE position being this upside down? Who had Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, and Baker Mayfield as weekly QB1’s? Not this guy (especially Fields considering my mantra for the past two seasons has been #neverfields.
Do not forget Week 5 is the first bye week for 2024 with the Chargers, Eagles, Lions, and Titans all off. Plan to ensure your roster is covered for Week 5 and consider looking ahead to Week 6 as the next round of byes will be here before you know it (Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings). Best to do prep a week early. Now, onto my Week 5 Start recommendations.
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Starts of The Week
- Position: QB Start of the Week
- Player: Geno Smith
- Week 3 Opponent: home versus the New York Giants
Week 4 was not an anomaly for Geno Smith. His 395 yards and one TD output was just the start of what could turn out to be his best season. Geno is averaging 295.5 yards per game which means we must pay attention. He has played good not great defenses which may slightly skew the numbers in his favor, but we only care about raw results and the eye test. That eye test told me the Seahawks have an offense primed to highlight Smith’s ability to throw the ball.
Also, the Kenneth Walker III outburst last week means the Giants will have to pick their poison; stack the box to stop the run thus allowing Geno to pick them apart or drop into coverage and watch KWIII run all over them. Mark it down now: Smith throws multiple TDs for the first time in 2024. I think he goes for 270+ and three TDs against the junior high Giants defense.
- Position: RB Start of the Week
- Player: Jerome Ford
- Week 3 Opponent: at the Washington Commanders
It is almost Nick Chubb season. The key word there is ‘almost’. Jerome Ford is averaging 72 all-purpose yards per game through three weeks, which is not great, but digging a little deeper into the numbers shows 20 targets and the leading the Browns in carriers. Remember, it is the first bye week, so there are big name RBs sitting this week. You should recognize that lesser players will be started across virtually every lineup. Your goal is to start the right ones, and I think Ford is in a solid spot to produce a decent floor.
- Position: WR Start of the Week
- Player: Tre Tucker
- Week 3 Opponent: at the Denver Broncos
On paper, the Broncos look to be a rough match-up for WRs. That’s fine. I do not really care because what is not reflected in those numbers is the mention of Pittsburgh and the New York Jets who have not proven capable of consistently throwing the ball against any defense. Add in the Davante Adams drama and you will see Jakobi Meyers moving into the WR1 role for Vegas with Tre Tucker probably staying in his current role.
Tucker has seen 15 targets the past two weeks and added 135+ yards and two TDs (one rushing on a jet sweep). I foresee Patrick Surtain covering Meyers thus allowing Tucker to be open early and often. The Raiders have not proven to be able to pound the rock on the ground, so I look for more passing in Week 5 providing just the opportunity we want to see for our WR3 bye week filler(s).
- Position: TE Start of the Week
- Player: Mike Gesicki
- Week 3 Opponent: versus the Baltimore Ravens
Before you shake your head at me as you recall the Ravens beating up the Bills last week, please know that Dalton Kincaid saw seven targets and did not play the 4th quarter (sat because of the blow-out). The Ravens defense is ranked as the second-best option for TEs. Mike Gesicki is coming off a terrible performance that I consider an outlier in an otherwise solid first four weeks. The Bengals will need to score to win, and they will need to throw to score. Look for Gesicki to provide double-digit PPR points for you in Week 5.
Sneaky Plays
QB Sneaky Play: Joe Flacco was electric last year when the opportunity to start presented itself. He made David Njoku a superstar and can do the same for Josh Downs while we have already seen a resurgence from Michael Pittman Jr. with Flacco under center. Keep an eye on Anthony Richardson’s status after Friday practice notes comes out and be prepared and excited to start Flacco, especially in Super Flex formats.
RB Sneaky Play: Fire up Trey Sermon against the 0-4 Jaguars! With the news of Jonathan Taylor’s high ankle sprain (usually 2-4 games missed), Sermon vaults to RB1 for Indy. Do not think that means Sermon becomes a fantasy football RB1 as much as he is a solid RB2/FLEX start during the bye week. My recommendation is even stronger when considering the opponent. I look for the Colts to kick the Jags while they are down especially if Joe Flacco (see above) starts over the ailing Anthony Richardson.
WR Sneaky Play: I have never been a huge fan of Tutu Atwell. I will admit he has been solid filling in while Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have been down with injuries. I wrote a few weeks back about this WR corps being a crap shoot (D. Robinson, T. Johnson, J. Whittington). What I did not see coming was the emergence as Atwell as the leader of this rag-tag group.
Matthew Stafford appears to trust the diminutive WR which is evident in Atwell being the Rams leading pass catcher over the past two weeks. The Rams will need to throw to keep up with Green Bay on Sunday. Look for Atwell to be the beneficiary.
TE Sneaky Play: My guy Tucker Kraft just became the darling TE waiver add for Week 4. Quick quiz: Who did Kraft play against in Week 4? The answer is (you already know this) the Minnesota Vikings. That forebodes a good game script for Tyler Conklin considering the 4-0 will score points leading Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to throw to keep up. A bounce-back game for Conklin comes in Week 5.
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-Stiles-
