Week 9 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss Players Splits

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This week, I speak about my last week.

WOW, did I have a bad week. I picked a Packers receiver the week Jordan Love had his worst game of the season then got hurt in what could have been a smash matchup.

I got the narrative inverted in the Arizona-Miami matchup, which scotched a start (Jaylen Waddle) and a sit (Marvin Harrison Jr.).

My sit sub, Chris Olave, got the focus on offense he deserved once Jake Haener came in and Olave finished with season-highs in targets, receptions, and yardage.

My one relative hit, Alexander Mattison, had only 44 scrimmage yards but five receptions in PPR is noteworthy.

But I can and will show my face again in Week 9, even if I’m concerned another 1-for-6 may get me sent to AAA. I’m not above using a baseball metaphor in a football column.

Bye weeks return from now until Week 13: this week Pittsburgh and San Francisco get a week off to heal up, and next week we’ll be without Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas, and Seattle.

Let’s look at some players for Week 9.

 

STARTS

Player: Brian Robinson Jr.

Team: Washington Commanders

Spread: -3.5 at New York Giants

Win/Loss: +2.3, W/L Index 119

Brian Robinson Jr. has been a good investment if we drafted him, as he’s currently the RB 22 in PPR leagues and a profit. Week 9 brings a familiar opponent in the New York Giants, who Robinson had 136 scrimmage yards against in Week 2. The Giants are allowing 141.8 rushing yards per game and have the 27^th-ranked rushing defense in yardage but 15^th in fantasy due to allowing only 6 touchdowns.

The Commanders are favored here and Robinson has been averaging 14.4 PPR points per game in wins since the beginning of the 2023 season. I see him eclipsing the 11.7-point projection per Rudy Gamble’s rankings.                                                                          

Player: Courtland Sutton

Team: Denver Broncos

Spread: +9.5 at Baltimore Ravens

Win-Loss: +1.6, W/L Index 117

The W/L index of 117 is fairly neutral here and Sutton averages about 10.3 PPR PPG in losses over the last 25 games the Broncos have played. There are green lights for me: after a rough start, Bo Nix has only turned the ball over once in his last six starts. The game script here shapes up to be negative for Denver and the Ravens give up 291.4 passing yards per game while surrendering 17 TDs in 8 games, which is the second friendliest to wide receivers and 26.6 PPR PPG to wideouts, where Sutton lines up 88% of the time.

Sometimes I do recommend Broncos.

Player: Jakobi Meyers

Team: Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: +7.0 at Cincinnati Bengals

Win/Loss: +2.2, W/L Index 117

The Raiders are significant underdogs this week and even though the W/L index favors a winning scenario since the beginning of 2023, Meyers’ best 2024 games have come in 7+ point losses and he’s averaging 15.25 PPR PPG in those. Meyers has done a credible job as the Raiders’ de-facto WR1 and they move him all over the formation.

The Bengals are fairly better against the pass than the run, but if this game plays out as the books expect, the Raiders will have to throw to keep up. I’m confident flexing Meyers this week.

 

SITS

 Player: Javonte Williams

Team: Denver Broncos

Spread: +9.5 at Baltimore Ravens

Win-Loss: +4.7, W/L Index 154

 The flip side of the Ravens coin: while they have one of the league’s friendliest pass defenses to fantasy players, they have one of the stingiest run defenses, in part because their opponents usually find themselves in a negative game script early in games. Javonte is a capable pass catcher and it’s possible he’ll get a bunch of dump-offs from Bo Nix, but the Ravens are facing fewer than 6 running back targets per game in 2024. Add in that Javonte tends significantly better in wins, and I’ll sit him if I can this week.

Player: Jaylen Waddle

Team: Miami Dolphins

Spread: +6.0 at Buffalo Bills

Win-Loss: +6.5, W/L Index 177

 This is the week I get my revenge on Jaylen Waddle. Yes, I am THAT petty.

Not really. The Dolphins haven’t won against the Bills in over two years, and most of those games have not been close. In the 21 games he’s played in since the beginning of 2023, Waddle is averaging 8.5 PPR PPG in losses. He hasn’t had double-digit PPR points in a game since Week 1 and the Bills secondary is only allowing 26.9 PPR PPG to receivers, sixth-best for 2024.

Waddle’s due, but I’m betting it’s not this week.

Player: Nick Chubb

Team: Cleveland Browns

Spread: +1.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers

Win-Loss: +2.7, W/L Index 132

 This one hurts because I love Nick Chubb and I love the Nick Chubb story. I hope I’ll be able to recommend him as a start sometime.

But not this week. He still doesn’t seem to have his legs back as he’s averaging less than three yards a carry since returning, and the Browns’ offensive line seems to be perpetually banged up this season. I’m not betting he gets right against the third-best fantasy run defense that has only given up three touchdowns on the season. I believe I can find a better option in the wide receivers available in this domain for Week 9.

That’s a wrap for this week. Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 9!