Let me start by saying I am not a bookmaker. I enjoy sports betting, like most of you, but I won’t pretend to be as sharp as someone like our own Rudy Gamble (have you tried Rudy’s NFL Tools?). What I lack in efficiency I make up for in creativity and a willingness to put a line on almost anything. In that spirit, I give you the first propageddon post. Each week I will mash up some of my favorite storylines into a dozen prop bets. To help me out I’ve asked a handful of fellow touts to give their input. You can see all the responses in chart form here. I’ve also created a version for readers to fill out, and I’ll publish the top performer next week! Without further ado, the props…

How many total TDs will Melvin Gordon score?

  • 1 {69.2%}
  • 2 {15.4%}
  • Any other number (includes 0) {15.4%}

I was surprised at how few folks took the bait on this one. Gordon has scored 0, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3 touchdowns through six games. One is certainly the most probable number of TDs.

Which will be higher?

Another somewhat failed attempt to bait my analyst friends. Gurley does much of his fantasy damage through touchdowns. Not that he doesn’t have great yardage totals most games. It’s just a tall order to exceed the number that two guys putting up about 190 yards per game will when combined.

Who will throw the most INTs?

I’m not surprised that Winston was the top vote-getter. I thought Brock and Anderson would have grabbed a few more nods, though. Maybe I split the replacement hater vote.

Will the FanDuel price of the top QB be O/U $8,100?

  • Over {26.9%}
  • Under {73.1%}

This one surprised me. There are plenty of nice QBs $8K and below, but the big names are still at the top of the pricing tier. My guess is that Jameis Winston drew in some bettors at $7800.

Who will score more FanDuel points (.5 PPR)?

That this was even a question tells you just how big of a breakout Boyd is having.

Who will score more rushing TDs?

I pooched the wording of this bet. The way I’ll score it is a push for all ties besides zero, which will go to Philly. My intention was to see how confident folks were that Cam will run one in on Sunday. I think that’s likely.

Which will be higher?

I put more personal bias into this prop than any bookmaker should. It’s still one of my favorite bets. I think Zeke gets his usual double-XL amount of work and Washington will be content to play a boring game, reducing Smith yardage. Any QB should smash a yardage prop, but you have to think about this one.

Which will be higher?

  • The total points in the Houston-Jacksonville game. {30.8%}
  • Points scored by Kansas City or tie. {69.2%}

It’s a crazy bet that one team would outscore two combined, but Pat Mahomes has brought us here.

Hit me with any feedback on the props or the process. Check back next week for more prop bet madness.

  1. clokwerc says:
    (link)

    I need some advice, should I drop MVS from GB for T. Smith from NO, and pick up T. Smith in another league for M. Davis from Sea…

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
      (link)

      @clokwerc: I’m good with both of those. MVS will take a back seat, at least until Cobb’s next injury. Mike Davis is in RB hell, aka Seattle.

  2. Roto-Wan

    Roto-Wan says:
    (link)

    I’m good with both of those. MVS will take a back seat, at least until Cobb’s next injury. Mike Davis is in RB hell, aka Seattle.

  3. clokwerc says:
    (link)

    I just saw a trade go thru should i scratch T. Smith and get Chubb??

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
      (link)

      @clokwerc: Chubb, absolutely.

  4. mike says:
    (link)

    half ppr… i do not own bell…

    give conner for chubb

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
      (link)

      @mike: my personal position on Conner is to hold him until Bell plays. That’s an OK offer if you have any confidence Bell will be starting soon, though.

  5. clokwerc says:
    (link)

    With Hyde being traded who should i start? I picked up Chubb and have TY Hilton for my flex.. Who wins?

  6. clokwerc says:
    (link)

    Who do i start.. Hyde was just traded and i just picked up Chubb… I have TY Hilton on my bench too.. Who di i start Chubb or Hilton?

  7. clokwerc says:
    (link)

    Who do i start.. Hyde was just traded and i just picked up Chubb… I have TY Hilton on my bench too.. Who di i start Chubb or Hilton?

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
      (link)

      @clokwerc: if Hilton plays and sounds reasonably healthy I’d go with him. They have no other WRs and it’s at home.

  8. Ron P says:
    (link)

    Trade offer is on the proverbial table in a standard league.

    Give: Chubb and Crabtree
    Get: Coleman and JuJu

    My other RB are David Johnson, Howard, Mack, Carson and Miller (Need to drop 1 as well for a legal roster – Carson or Miller???)

    My other WR are M. Thomas, D. Adams, Golladay, Baldwin, D. Thomas

    • Ron P says:
      (link)

      @Roto-Wan: Can you help a fellow out with this one?

  9. Jeffrey Gilden says:
    (link)

    Hey!

    Just got two trade offers following the Chubb news – I picked him up.

    Offer 1: I give Chubb for Aaron Jones and Josh Gordon
    Offer 2: I give Ito Smith for Aaron Jones and Josh Gordon.

    Currently 5-1, tied for second.

    Thoughts?

    Thanks,
    Jeff

      • Jeffrey Gilden says:
        (link)

        @Roto-Wan:
        Landry, Marvin Jones, Gabriel, Smith-Schuster, Godwin, Westbrook
        Starting 3 WR, 2 fles
        (RBs: Barkley, Chubb, Mixon, Ito Smith, Hyde, – start 2)

        • Roto-Wan

          Roto-Wan says:
          (link)

          @Nic Romero: I’m excited. @Jeffrey Gilden: I think Chubb is the better hold, so do Ito.

          • Jeffrey Gilden says:
            (link)

            @Roto-Wan:
            Thanks. A Few followup questions: if I do the deal, I have to drop someone. Is it still worth it? Who should I drop? Also, Aaron Jones’s role is unclear, so that makes me pause. It’s essentially Gordon for Ito, or am I seeing it wrong?
            Thanks again!

            • Roto-Wan

              Roto-Wan says:
              (link)

              @Ron P: I don’t think you need a WR. I’d hold Chubb (hehe) since RBs are scarce. @Jeffrey Gilden: Westbrook or Gabriel would be a drop. Jones is a stash in the event a different Packer RB goes down.

              • Jeffrey Gilden says:
                (link)

                @Roto-Wan: That’s great advice, thank you. I’m going to accept the deal for Smith and drop Westbrook. I appreciate the help!

  10. Nic Romero

    Nic Romero says:
    (link)

    Looks like we have some smart contributors. Def against the majority on a couple- I got Zeke, Boyd and the Over! Looking forward to seeing results.

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
      (link)

      @Nic Romero: I’m excited.

Comments are closed.