Let me start by saying I am not a bookmaker. I enjoy sports betting, like most of you, but I won’t pretend to be as sharp as someone like our own Rudy Gamble (have you tried Rudy’s NFL Tools?). What I lack in efficiency I make up for in creativity and a willingness to put a line on almost anything. In that spirit, I give you the first propageddon post. Each week I will mash up some of my favorite storylines into a dozen prop bets. To help me out I’ve asked a handful of fellow touts to give their input. You can see all the responses in chart form here. I’ve also created a version for readers to fill out, and I’ll publish the top performer next week! Without further ado, the props…
How many total TDs will Melvin Gordon score?
- 1 {69.2%}
- 2 {15.4%}
- Any other number (includes 0) {15.4%}
I was surprised at how few folks took the bait on this one. Gordon has scored 0, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3 touchdowns through six games. One is certainly the most probable number of TDs.
Which will be higher?
- Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods combined receiving yards. {69.2%}
- Todd Gurley total yards or tie. {30.8%}
Another somewhat failed attempt to bait my analyst friends. Gurley does much of his fantasy damage through touchdowns. Not that he doesn’t have great yardage totals most games. It’s just a tall order to exceed the number that two guys putting up about 190 yards per game will when combined.
Who will throw the most INTs?
- Brock Osweiler {23.1%}
- Marcus Mariota {7.7%}
- Jameis Winston {42.3%}
- Mitch Trubinsky {7.7%}
- Derek Anderson {19.2%}
I’m not surprised that Winston was the top vote-getter. I thought Brock and Anderson would have grabbed a few more nods, though. Maybe I split the replacement hater vote.
Will the FanDuel price of the top QB be O/U $8,100?
- Over {26.9%}
- Under {73.1%}
This one surprised me. There are plenty of nice QBs $8K and below, but the big names are still at the top of the pricing tier. My guess is that Jameis Winston drew in some bettors at $7800.
Who will score more FanDuel points (.5 PPR)?
- A.J. Green {84.6%}
- Tyler Boyd or tie {15.4%}
That this was even a question tells you just how big of a breakout Boyd is having.
Who will score more rushing TDs?
- Cam Newton {72%}
- Eagles backfield or none. {28%}
I pooched the wording of this bet. The way I’ll score it is a push for all ties besides zero, which will go to Philly. My intention was to see how confident folks were that Cam will run one in on Sunday. I think that’s likely.
Which will be higher?
- Alex Smith passing yards. {76.9%}
- Ezekiel Elliott total yards or tie. {23.1%}
I put more personal bias into this prop than any bookmaker should. It’s still one of my favorite bets. I think Zeke gets his usual double-XL amount of work and Washington will be content to play a boring game, reducing Smith yardage. Any QB should smash a yardage prop, but you have to think about this one.
Which will be higher?
- The total points in the Houston-Jacksonville game. {30.8%}
- Points scored by Kansas City or tie. {69.2%}
It’s a crazy bet that one team would outscore two combined, but Pat Mahomes has brought us here.
Hit me with any feedback on the props or the process. Check back next week for more prop bet madness.