Hope that everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Then, each of us suffered through the post Thanksgiving work week. This might be the worst week of the year. Coming off of a short work week after traveling, cooking, cleaning, spending money on ‘deals’ that only make us realize how big of a markup we usually pay, traveling again… But we’ve almost made it everyone! Thursday night football feels like the first sign that the end of this miserable week is almost here.
If football wasn’t enough, hopefully by this time the leftovers are FINALLY gone, or frozen to be ignored until there’s nothing left in the house. No more casseroles and you can get back to your diet other than at the holiday parties, and when eating office baked goods, and the inevitable Christmas meals. If only rosters expanded like waistlines this time of year, but since they don’t, here are some options for you and best of luck in your last week before the playoffs!
Case Keenum – 52%
They don’t sell craft beer in cases, but you can get some “for everyone” Bud Light in a case and that’s what this recommendation feels like to me. Nothing exotic here, but safe and fairly predictable range of outcomes. Keenum only has 1 single digit game on the season, but also hasn’t scored over 26 points in any game this season. Case has gone 3 weeks without tossing an interception and is facing the Hue Jackson cursed Bengals.
The Bungals have fallen apart recently with injuries and also a general lack of execution. They have fallen to the bottom of the league in total points and yards allowed on the season. In the last 3 weeks, the lowest completion percentage they’ve given up is 68% to Lamar Jackson with both Brees and Baker throwing for a higher completion percentage and a few touchdowns each.
Cinci is also allowing the most fantasy points to QBs with the 5th most completions allowed, 2nd most passing yards, 2nd most passing touchdowns, and 4th worst in net yards per attempt. They also haven’t gotten after the quarterback often as they are bottom 10 in sacks. Keenum is no Creature Comforts Athena Paradiso, but in this kind of match-up, maybe he’s a bit more enticing than just a BL.
Derek Carr – 60%
This recommendation is another one that is much more of a safe start than an exciting one. Derek Carr hasn’t quite become the QB that some of us expected by this point in his career, but you certainly can’t lay all the blame at his feet for the Raiders failures either. After losing his #1 WR, Carr and daaaaaaaa Raaaaaiiiiidddders, have been struggling to get much going on either side of the ball losing 3 straight to the Saints, Ravens, and Browns.
I expect another lose to be forthcoming for Oakland, but it’s a good match-up for Derek as the Kansas City secondary has been weak on the season and he should have plenty of attempts in this game given the blow-out potential of this game with the Chiefs. If you doubled the Raiders points on the season, they’d still be short of the Chiefs points total. So, I expect the Raiders to be behind early with Carr throwing plenty.
The Raiders have struggled with passing touchdowns, but do have the 18th most passing yards on the season. Carr shouldn’t be a threat for negative points either as he’s controlled the ball well this season and hasn’t thrown a pick in the last 6 games.
The Chiefs defense has certainly been the weak link of this team. As the offense sits among the best, the defense has allowed the 5th most points and the 3rd most yards. For the sake of the match-up for Carr, the Chiefs have allowed the most completions and the most passing yards. I like Carr as a safer play with upside over many of the other lesser owner streaming options at QB.
Cameron Brate – 75%
Jameis has utilized the tight end going back to his days at Florida St. and with the injury to O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate becomes a tight end that is not only worth streaming, but potentially owning the rest of the season. Outside of the top tier of the position, Brate offers you about as much consistency as you can expect at this point with at least 3 targets in 4 straight weeks, and 7 of the last 9 weeks even with Howard present and all the changes at QB there in Florida.
In addition to the consistent, and potentially climbing, targets, Brate gets a great match-up this week for the tight end position as they face the Panthers who have given up 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends. They are tied for the most TDs allowed to the position, and the 6th most receptions.
The schedule isn’t quite as friendly going forward, but defensive stats versus the tight end are a bit hit and miss. He’s in a tight end friendly offense with 2 tight end leaning QBs with no more real competitors for targets at the position.
Matt LaCosse – 1%
If you’re completely at the end of the waiver wire and looking for a flyer, or if you’re in a deep league with nobody else available to add to your roster, Matt LaCosse has moved to the top of the tight end depth chart in Denver. Jeff Heuerman was the primary tight end, but has gone to the IR. Brian Parker is the other option in Denver, but LaCosse has seen the most time with the team.
While there isn’t much tape on LaCosse, he has flashed some ability to get down the field. In the last 6 games, even with Heuerman getting most of the tight end targets, LaCosse has 17 targets. Over that time, Heuerman had 30, which means that there is potential for a meaningful role in the offense.
The opportunity is there and he faces the same terrible Bengals defense that I opened the article discussing. The defense and passing stats are above so I won’t regurgitate them again, but in addition, Cincinnati is also allowing the most fantasy points to the tight end position. They are tied for the most TDs allowed with the aforementioned Panthers and the Dolphins. Hard to put much confidence in LaCosse, but based on the potential for targets in a plus match-up, it could be worth a shot if you’re desperate.
Tennessee – 51%
A good defense in a good match-up. Sounds like a streaming option to me. The Titans are still under owned as we get ready for week 13, but that’s good news for us D/ST streamers. The Titans have allowed the 6th fewest points and the 10th fewest yards. They haven’t been an amazing fantasy defense due to a mediocre amount of turnovers and sacks, but after a couple of tough match-ups, they get a nice one here against the Jets.
In the last 5 games, the Jets have failed to score more than 17 points in any single game and it’s not just recently, the Jets have been a lackluster offense all season. They have the 7th fewest points (6th worst scoring percentage) and the 4th fewest yards. They are also prone to turnovers with the second most interceptions thrown as a team and the 6th worst turnover percentage. I’m starting the Titans with confidence this week.
Green Bay – 45%
The Packers defense has been mediocre at best on the season coming in as the 17th most points allowed and are 12th in fewest yards allowed. This streaming option is not about a strong defensive unit or changes that they’ve made as the season has gone on, but facing the worst offense in football can cover up a lot of holes.
Here is a quick list of stats that the Cardinals offense is the worst in the league: points scored, total yards, rushing yards, passing yards, yards per play, scoring percentage, net yards per pass attempt, yards per rushing attempt, plays runs. If that’s not enough, they are bottom 5 in turnovers, interceptions, turnover percentage, rushing TDs, and passing TDs. They have 2 weeks with over 20 points scored and that was against the 49ers and the Raiders.
Honorable Mentions: Seattle, Miami
Follow B_Don on Twitter @DitkaSausagePod. Check out his podcast, Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports, for more football talk with @DonkeyTeeth87.