What to Expect from Rookie Running Backs

Running backs have the shortest lifespan of all footballers so when you draft one in dynasty, you’re hoping for immediate output. Likewise, when risking an early round redraft pick on this year’s crop of runners, you’d like to know what to expect. Well lucky for you, that’s exactly what we’re looking at today! We’ll be breaking this year’s rookie runners into groups based on their draft position to predict their year one fantasy finish. We’ll also look at when we expect these runners to hit a significant workload (defined as 15 touches in a game) to assess how long it takes for rookies to take on a major role. We’ll also look at their fantasy finish after that time and for players who had major injuries, their output until that point.

Mid-Late 2^nd round rookies (eg. Jonathon Brooks):

It’s very hard to project late second rounders for big workloads in the NFL, as most slide into a backup or committee role. There have been notable exceptions though, with Eddie Lacy and Miles Sanders moving into a vacant backfields and Jeremy Hill replacing the veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis. That’s also the hope for Jonathon Brooks, who admittedly was drafted on the high end of this range but comes in with a lot of concerns. The biggest knock is his recovery from an ACL injury, which will likely keep him out for the first month of the season. It’s also unlikely he’ll inherit an immediate every-down role when he does make his debut. Brooks will likely be most productive late in the season, but is he worth the mid-round pick he’s costing at the moment? History says no.

3^rd round rookies (eg. Trey Benson, Blake Corum, MarShawn Lloyd):

Late Day 2 running backs are a bit of a lottery but the top 5 success of Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt in their rookie seasons has led to a very ambitious view of 3^rd round runners. In the six years since that epic season, De’Von Achane is just the second 3^rd round rookie to have finished in the top 24 behind Antonio Gibson. Realistically, Trey Benson and Blake Corum will need an injury ahead of them to be a true fantasy asset this season, while a Tyjae Spears-like season seems far more likely. Meanwhile, MarShawn Lloyd could struggle to even perform at that level; he needs a Josh Jacobs injury and even then, he could end up in a committee.

4^th round rookies (eg. Jaylen Wright, Bucky Irving, Will Shipley, Ray Davis, Braelon Allen)

As the massive table of 4th round rookie running backs shows, this is a very common running back draft spot. While Dameon Pierce bucked the trend of disappointment in 2021 and Jamaal Williams and Michael Carter were fantasy relevant at times in their rookie seasons, there’s plenty of talent below who did nothing out of the gate. It’s just such a low probability proposition to draft one of these guys. But with an injury ahead of them, I could imagine any of Ray Davis, Braelon Allen and Will Shipley playing a big role this season. Meanwhile Jaylen Wright goes into a high-powered running back room and arguably cost the most actual draft capital, as the Dolphins traded away a 2025 3^rd rounder to get him. I expect at least one of these rookies to surprise this season.

Other Notable Day 3 rookies (eg. Audric Estime, Rasheen Ali, Tyrone Tracy, Kimani Vidal, Dylan Laube)

In the last seven years, 58 running backs have been drafted in the final three rounds. Below are the 11 who have had 15 or more touches in a game as a rookie. Interestingly, only 6 others ever had a fantasy-relevant role in a later season. That’s an extremely low conversion rate with Chris Carson and Aaron Jones the only players who have turned into the kind of player you’d really want on your fantasy team. So what’s the message? In redraft, these guys are absolute no-goes. At best, Tracy and Estime are handcuffs while Vidal will definitely disappoint and Laube will be a passing-down specialist. Avoid them all.

Running backs are often at their best in their rookie year but finding the right one can be a real challenge. This year, I’d be avoiding them all until the later rounds of the draft as there’s a real lack of top-end quality in this class. My targets will be Davis and Allen as I believe they have the most upside for a very low cost. I also like Corum if he falls far enough too. If you need help valuing players in your specific situation, message me on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown or on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn, plus you can find my full positional and rookie rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com If you need IDP rankings you can find them on my website while I also do paid personalised rankings, as advertised on Razzball last year. Contact me if interested.