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We talked last week about how the role of the every-down workhorse running back in today’s NFL has pretty much disappeared. After your Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry, who are top tier backs that carry the bulk of their backfield’s workload, most of the other backs have some shared workload. After you get through the first few rounds in your draft, you land in that questionable territory at running back. This is the point where there are many backs who are going to be in a split backfield situation of some sort. This two-part series is made to look at some of those backfields and make heads or tails of them. In Part 1, we looked at Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Las Vegas. Today, we will examine a few more muddy situations and I will answer the question of “Which back are you backing?”
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos backfield is a situation that we haven’t gotten much clarity on this offseason. The focus in Denver has been on the quarterback competition and now, with Teddy Bridgewater being named the starter, the focus should shift to the backfield. Melvin Gordon returns after leading the backfield last season with 9 rushing touchdowns and 986 rushing yards, which was good for 9th most at the running back position in the league. Phillip Lindsay was the other relevant back last season in Denver, but he is no longer with the team. Instead, the Broncos traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams in the second round. Williams had a successful collegiate career and is familiar with sharing the workload in a backfield, which he did successfully at North Carolina with Michael Carter. Gordon is in his 28-year-old season and in the final year of his contract, so Denver clearly views Williams as their back of the future. That said, they didn’t trade up and select Williams in the second round for him to not have a role this year.
So JB, which back are you backing? Current NFFC ADP (average draft position) has Williams being taken first out of this backfield duo with an ADP of 55. Gordon is being drafted later and has a current ADP of 80. That means Williams is usually going around the 4th or 5th round while you can get Gordon in the 6th or 7th. I do think this is going to be a true split backfield but there are a couple of factors I am considering. Melvin Gordon had a DUI incident last year that the NFL still could potentially suspend him for. Playing in a tough division with the Chiefs and Chargers, I don’t believe the Broncos are a playoff-caliber team this season. I believe the backs share the workload early, but Javonte Williams takes over by the end of the season. The Broncos are going to want to see what they have in the rookie and make sure he can carry the workload next season. If I can get Javonte in the 5th round, I will look to draft him as a guy who could be a league winner down the stretch in your fantasy playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
One of the favorites in the AFC, after a spectacular season from Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs last year, Buffalo looks to cement themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The backfield, however, is still a major question mark. Both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary return after both being mediocre at best last year. In 2020, Moss rushed 112 times for 481 yards and 4 touchdowns in 13 games, while Singletary managed 156 rushes for 687 yards and 2 touchdowns in 16 games. This was a fairly even split and a lot of the rushing touchdowns were vulture by Josh Allen who ran in 8 himself. Moss is the bigger back, who I would expect to get more red-zone opportunity, but he has also dealt with a couple of injuries. He finished last season injuring his ankle in the playoffs and had surgery on it in the offseason. He also has been dealing with a hamstring injury already this offseason. Singletary has been listed as the lead back on the team’s preliminary depth chart.
So JB, which back are you backing? Both backs are inexpensive when looking at their current ADP. Moss has an ADP of 102 and Singletary’s is 128. Moss has been going around the 8th round and Singletary in the 10th in recent drafts. Most fantasy managers will be looking to avoid this backfield completely, but I do think that Allen will be vulture fewer touchdowns this year than he did last year. After the Bills gave Allen a 6-year contract with $150 million guaranteed, I expect them to want to protect their investment a bit and dial back on the designed runs to keep him out of harm’s way as much as they can. Moss should be the goal-line back, but Singletary could lead the team in carries and is also the better pass catcher. I don’t particularly love either back but given the injury concerns with Moss, and Singletary having the slight edge coming into the season, I would lean towards Singletary with the discounted ADP if I’m taking either.
Houston Texans
Yuck. Everything about the Houston Texans this season makes you say Yuck. Houston has put together a backfield that looks like something that Shawn Siegele or Kevin Tompkins would put together in one of their hideous ZeroRB drafts. They return David Johnson who led the team last season, but also brought in Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram. Early camp reports and what we have seen in the preseason games seem to tell us that this is a true 3-headed dusty backfield. Preseason usage has hinted at Johnson being the3rd down, pass-catching back, and Lindsay looks to be the one with the slight edge to lead in early-down work.
So JB, which back are you backing? None of them. That said though, they are all going super late in drafts. Current ADP has Johnson at 108, Lindsay at 152, and Ingram at 288 and undrafted in most leagues. This team is going to be very bad, and I don’t believe any of these backs will carry much fantasy relevance. If I am going to take a stab at any of them, I would take a flyer on Lindsay in the 13th round or later.
New York Jets
This is a backfield I touched on earlier this offseason in my “Trust the Dish You Know” article. Check that out to see which back I’m backing in New York.
I hope that this series has helped you make some sense of these tricky running back rooms. Getting a better read on these muddy backfields could help you strike some fantasy gold in your upcoming drafts. As always, you are welcome to follow me on Twitter @FantasyCoachJB and ask me any questions you may have on draft strategies, draft preparation, or anything else for that matter. Good luck in your drafts and don’t forget to check out Rudy Gamble’s projections for some more help in preparing for those drafts!
