You may have heard that Raheem Mostert’s agent logged onto twitter and publicly demanded a trade after failing to reach an agreement for a new contract over the offseason. I’m not going to tell an agent how to do his job because I, myself, am not an agent. But this move was so telegraphed and desperate. But I totally get it and Raheem Mostert is 150% justified to demand more money. Mostert is 28 years old and making special teams money while he outperforms every other back on the team. A running back’s shelf life is the shortest of any position in football so Mostert has to get it while he can. The one thing that he has going for him is that he doesn’t have a ton of mileage. Raheem Mostert has a little over 200 career touches compared to Le’Veon Bell who also is 28-years old but also has over 1,800 career touches.
Anyways, I think that there is about an 80% chance that Mostert isn’t leaving San Francisco. There isn’t a trade market for running backs. Nobody is going to offer substantial draft capital to pay a running back more for a season that might not even happen. If John Lynch can even get a day 3 draft pick I would be very surprised. I also don’t think Raheem Mostert is in a financial position to stage a hold out and I’m simply basing that on career earnings. That didn’t stop the speculation from the hungry twitter crowd that isn’t being fed the sports content that it is used to. Let’s break down what you should do with the San Francisco backfield in fantasy drafts. There are a few different ways to go about this.
Take the Raheem Mostert Discount
Do you like gambling? I certainly do. There isn’t going to be good ADP data on Raheem Mostert because the drama is so new. But, I’m guessing that Mostert will be available a few rounds later if you are doing drafts right now. If Mostert is available after pick 100 I’m going to grab all of him that I can. You have an opportunity to grab a player with a ton of volume potential assuming this situation plays out realistically.
On the off chance that Mostert does get traded, he’ll likely be picked up by a team that could immediately use his services. Maybe he would end up with the Bears, Buccaneers, or the Steelers. He would likely get the workload necessary to still leave plenty of room for profit. And if he doesn’t there isn’t much harm in leaving a 9th or 10th round pick on your bench.
Fade Tevin Coleman
Take it or leave it, it’s your team. Tevin Coleman is being way overvalued in my opinion. Tevin Coleman had two big games last year. One was in a blow out against the Cleveland Browns and the other was in a blow out against the Carolina Panthers. Coleman averaged less than 5 touches per game from week 13 on. He lost his work load because he got outperformed by Mostert down the stretch. Credit where credit is due, Coleman did have a great game with a heavy workload against the Vikings in the playoffs last season. Even if Mostert isn’t back with the 49ers who is to say that the same thing won’t happen again with Jerick McKinnon and/or Jeff Wilson? Coleman also often failed to seize his opportunity in Atlanta in 2018 after Devonta Freeman got hurt. He was often underwhelming and lost a lot of touches in the process.
Jerick McKinnon Insurance
The best draft value as of today in the 49ers’ backfield is Jerick McKinnon. He restructured his contract to a one-year prove it deal after not being able to touch the field in his first two seasons with the squad. Mckinnon was brought in as a pass catching specialist who can also run it between the tackles. McKinnon is a Shanahan back through and through. If the 49ers are a “system backfield” McKinnon will fit the system like a glove. McKinnon is 3rd back off of the board and could be a huge fantasy asset especially if Mostert moves on. So if you are buying into the narrative that Mostert and the 49ers will part ways, he’s your guy.