Living in a world virtually devoid of all team sports has been excruciating for most of us. If you’re like the majority of ardent sports’ fans, you’re looking forward to the upcoming NFL season with an excitement level akin to a four-year-old Christmas Eve.
Football bettors will be salivating as well, as without regular ballgames on the schedule, the betting options have virtually dried up. Heading into every new season, there is a lot of anticipation for who has the best shot at winning the upcoming Super Bowl.
In sportsbook terms, they’re called team futures. Let’s look at DraftKings Sportsbook team futures for winning the upcoming NFL championship. We’re going to target the top-7 teams on the list, voicing our hunch that someone could be making another curtain call.
The Cast
This has the prospect of being a special season for multiple reasons. Star names have changed addresses. A superstar signed the biggest contract in U.S. sports history. Another star quarterback has hopes of flying his team to new heights, earning him an even bigger payday when his new deal comes due in two years.
Patrick Mahomes inked the wealthiest contract in professional U.S. sports history. The Chiefs’ management most certainly envisions this massive expenditure producing a second title. Kansas City would add their name to a short list of NFL teams to win back-to-back titles.
This is an elite list. Ironically, one player from the team to accomplish this feat most recently is now leading the hopes of another team. Want some more irony? Tom Brady shifting his championship metal south to Tampa Bay has skyrocketed the Buc’s Super Bowl odds.
That would make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the first team in NFL history to play a Super Bowl game on their home turf. Another Brady title would add a seventh ring to his jewelry box. Many think Baltimore made all-the-right-moves during the off-season.
Lamar Jackson shattered records in 2019, and many feel his team is strong enough to displace Mahomes’ Chiefs and win in 2020. That would most assuredly boost Jackson’s bargaining power when he renegotiates his current contract.
The Play
The 2020 NFL season is going to be like a 16 act play. Each week, the plot could change and the actors reshape their roles. When these first 16 acts are finished, 18 members of the cast will exit stage left. Their performance for 2020 will be over.
A first curtain call will begin, one called the NFL Playoffs. In 2020, there will be two additional teams involved, bringing the cast of actors up to 14. Let’s look at how the first part of this drama might play out and how it affects the odds of winning the championship for the seven teams currently boasting the best line.
Of course, this is when the real drama begins in the NFL. We’re going to target the seven best odds on DraftKings to win Super Bowl LV. To hoist the Lombardi Trophy, however, your team has to make it to the first curtain call.
Of the seven teams whose chances of winning the ultimate pro football game, only one has a strange relationship between their odds of making the playoffs and their odds of winning the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay has better odds than New England and Indianapolis of winning the Super Bowl +1,400, but is projected to have a harder time making the playoffs than the Patriots, and even money at +163 with the Colts.
By all indications, oddsmakers seem to think the Bucs will have a more difficult time getting into the NFC playoff bracket than they will have of winning it. New England, with another star QB living at a new address, is the seventh team on our top-7 list.
Indianapolis falls all the way down to a three-horse tie with Minnesota and Pittsburgh at +2,500 to win the big game. Something seems a tad bit off, right? The Buccaneers have also inched their way slowly up the board, creeping ever-closer behind San Francisco and New Orleans.
The 49ers post at +1,000, with the Saints just an eyelash behind them at +1,200. Next, comes the Brady-led pewter and orange. That makes an even split between the four teams currently posting better odds of winning the Super Bowl than the Buccaneers.
Kansas City and Baltimore are the cream of the crop. They are the only two teams with odds of winning the championship better than +1,000. The Chiefs hold a slight edge to repeat over the Ravens. KC is at the top of DraftKings team futures as championship winner at +600.
Baltimore is second at +650. Obviously, only one of these two can even earn the chance to win the title. Ranking third and fourth are two NFC teams. As we mentioned, the odds jump up to 1,000+ for both San Francisco and New Orleans.
Next in line are the Bucs. The Dallas Cowboys have almost been an afterthought in many Super Bowl combinations, but they hold the number six best odds at +1,700. There isn’t the same enthusiasm to bet the Boys to win it all, when some aren’t sure they can beat the Eagles in their own division.
That means four NFC teams plug into the top six candidates to play a leading role in being the NFC representative in the next Super Bowl. If all four do make the playoffs, the reality of attrition will mean one or more of them will be knock one another out of Tampa Bay’s way.
The Patriots round out our top-7. However, even with Cam Newton replacing one star QB with another, New England has the most difficult 16 act path to playoffs. However, there is a hunch that these changes could create cause for the Patriots to focus intently on what they have been doing well.
There could be a shift to a run-heavy play calling mindset supported by one of the best defensive units in the NFL. This might be enough to win games early while Newton acclimates himself to his new team.
The Final Act
As the first 16 parts of this play unfold, we will eliminate 18 teams. Out of the 14 playoff teams, we’ve targeted the best odd for the top-7. Baltimore and Kansas City are targeted as too strong to avoid being on opposite sides of the AFC bracket.
Most think they will match their top odds of winning the championship in one winner-take-all battle for the AFC title. That takes at least one of the top-7 off the board. As we mentioned the next four are NFC teams all bunched together between a +1,000 and +1,700 number.
If you haven’t guessed it by now, there is an angle that makes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a very intriguing bet as the Super Bowl LV Champion. One is Brady and number two is The Gronk. However, more has happened at One-Buc Place to sway that feeling.
A new quarterback in Tampa is welcomed, especially after the roller coaster ride known as Jameis Winston. However, even the proposed greatest-of-all-time has to stay upright to be successful. Tampa Bay produced a woeful performance out of their offensive line.
During the off season, the Bucs added depth and experience across this important part of their offense. Brady now should have the time to find one a talented group of receivers, including his old buddy Rob Gronkowski.
Now, let’s not forget Tampa Bay had the best defense in the NFL against the run last season. The Bucs were more than 200 total yards better the second best New York Jets. They actually got a little stronger in this area.
Nevertheless, their passing defense was an Achilles heel. The Tampa Bay secondary was young and played a less-than-spectacular season. They added more depth and a proven starter at safety, former Green Bay Packer Kentrell Brice.
New head coach Bruce Arians says problem fixed. So, you have a team that ranked fourth in total plays run, tops in defense against the run, and they just added two future Hall-of-Fame offensive stars to the roster.
Tampa Bay will open week number one against NFC South rival New Orleans. The game will be on the Saints’ home turf. A Tampa Bay victory could catapult them up the NFC rankings. Their schedule from there could be a clear path to 5-0 when they host Green Bay week number six.
The Buccaneers get a late bye week. They will come off back-to-home games against the Rams and defending champion Chiefs. They will get a much-needed rest heading into four very winnable games down the homestretch.
Tampa Bay’s schedule is ranked right in the middle for difficulty. The out-of-division road games on the schedule are very winnable. The Giants, Raiders, Bears and Lions are the only away games outside of the three division games on enemy turf.
A Curtain Call for Brady
We’re going to go out on a limb here, but it may be a limb that grows stronger as the season progresses from one act to the next. Tampa Bay’s opener in New Orleans will be huge. However, we still think the Brady-led Bucs welcome Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to town no worse than 4-1.
The four non-divisional road games, we believe are all odds-on marks in the win column. That chalks up an 8-1 record for Tampa Bay. The Bucs play the Vikings, Rams, Chiefs and Chargers all in Tampa. Conservatively we’ll give them two more wins.
After their bye week the first week of December, Tampa will get divisional rival Atlanta two out of their last four games. By that point in the season, we’ll all know how sharp the Buccaneers’ offense really is with Brady calling the shots.
Using traditional math potentially puts Tampa Bay in line to win at least 12 games in 2020. That would give them a possible edge for home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. Yep, you guessed it, which means the Bucs would have home field advantage right through the final game.
By most accounts, it’s going to be hard for any AFC team to get past both Kansas City and Baltimore. That makes a bet on either of these Super Bowl favorites a nice cover. However, don’t be surprised if they have to play their final game on the opposition’s home field.
That would be an NFL first. However, Tom Brady has accomplished more difficult things despite the odds. You have a good team with a good coach, riding an aging but great quarterback. Tampa has a winnable schedule and a huge potential home field edge. At +1,400 to win Super Bowl LV, we wonder if grabbing these odds with our pre-show popcorn isn’t a winning idea.
