What’s going on everyone, and welcome to the final post of my Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts series, where today I’ll be taking a look at the WR position.

Let’s get to it!

Sleepers

Jamison Crowder (ADP: 10.08)

While Kirk Cousins once again finished inside of the Top-12 in fantasy last season, it didn’t really translate too well for his receivers, especially Jamison Crowder. Crowder finished the 2017 season with only 789 receiving yards and 3 TD’s (granted he was battling some hamstring issues). However, most of his production came in the second half of the season, after the injuries of both Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson, and the inefficiency of Terrelle Pryor.

A lot has changed in Washington over the course of one offseason. First off, Kirk Cousins left town, and was replaced by Alex Smith. Second, the Redskins also brought in Paul Richardson, who should be Smith’s primary deep threat. And even though Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are still in this offense, they don’t seem to remain healthy for a full 16 games. With 25% of the Redskins targets available this season, Crowder should be one of Smith’s favorite targets to count in the middle of the field, and should easily pay off his ADP with his sheer PPR volume.

Michael Gallup (ADP: 15.10)

At the start of the summer, it wasn’t looking great for Gallup’s fantasy stock. With the addition of Allen Hurns to complement Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams, it didn’t seem like Gallup would make a lot of noise in his rookie season. However, things started to change in June and July.

Not only have there been reports that Gallup has built some chemistry with Dak Prescott, but he’s also taken some first-team reps in Training Camp, especially in the redzone, where the Cowboys seem to be very confident he’ll active in. Gallup was a very successful receiver at Colorado State, and could find his way in an offense that has a whopping 272 targets available thanks to the departures of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. With an ADP in the 15th round, Gallup is a great low-risk, high-reward lottery ticket as your 5th or 6th receiver.

Cameron Meredith (ADP: 16.08)

In 2016, Meredith was a fantasy lottery ticket as he came from absolutely nowhere to finish the season with 66 catches for 888 yards and 4 TD’s. Unfortunately, he didn’t play a single snap in 2017 after he tore both his ACL and MCL in the 3rd preseason game.

Despite not playing in a year, Meredith is still just 25 years old, and out to prove that 2016 wasn’t a fluke. He can’t do that with Chicago however, as the Bears elected to sign Allen Robinson instead of Meredith. With the departure of Willie Snead, the Saints decided to snag Meredith, and will likely use him as Drew Brees’ primary slot wideout. He should beat out Brandon Coleman easily, and settle in as the Saints’ WR2 opposite of Michael Thomas. After a season with Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley and Jay Cutler, Meredith should be even more productive in the Saints offense, and has a bunch of late-round upside with an ADP in the 16th round.

Breakouts

Corey Davis (ADP: 7.10)

You know it was a rough year when your most productive game came in the playoffs, and it was exactly like that for Corey Davis in his rookie year last season. While he was highly targeted, some tough hamstring issues led him to only finishing with 34 receptions for 375 yards and no TD’s.

However, with the coaching change to Mike Vrabel and Matt LaFleur, it’s looking like Davis could be in for a great 2018 season. Besides from the veteran presences of Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews, there isn’t anyone else for Mariota to turn to. There’s huge potential for Davis to prove why he was drafted, and comes in with a solid price in the later stages of the 7th round.

Cooper Kupp (ADP: 9.10)

As the primary slot receiver for L.A. in 2017, Kupp did quite well for himself in his rookie season, catching 62 passes for 869 yards and 5 TD’s, with a whopping 14.02 yards/target, consistenly become a WR3/Flex option most weeks.

While the Rams were pretty loaded, Kupp finished with a nice 19% target share. While I believed it could go up with the departure of Sammy Watkins, I was immediately disappointed when the Rams then grabbed Brandin Cooks. While his target share probably won’t go up that much, it’s great that there is room to grow in his overall efficiency and TD-rate. Besides, even if he plays exactly like he did last year, I’d gladly take that production in the late-9th round.

Busts

Tyreek Hill (ADP: 3.10)

I’ve talked a lot about Hill and Cooper, so I’ll keep this section short, but for both of these players, I’m not in love with their current prices. For Hill, while I do like the idea of his upside playing with Patrick Mahomes, he’s still very raw, and also building some nice chemistry with Sammy Watkins. With an ADP in the middle to late 3rd round in most drafts, I don’t see myself actively targeting him as my #2 WR.

Amari Cooper (ADP: 4.07)

It’s really hard to trust Amari Cooper after the seasons he’s had in the NFL, and with the addition of Jordy Nelson, who has been getting some rave reviews all offseason, Cooper’s red-zone share could be even smaller than it already was. I don’t have too much confidence in the Raiders passing offense in 2018, and I don’t think I’m going to target Cooper.

Alright guys, that is all my time for today. Thank you for reading my work all offseason, and especially this past series. I can’t wait for the NFL regular season, which you can find my content here on Wednesday’s (rankings post) and Saturday’s (Start/Sit column). And as always, if you have a question or comment, don’t hesitate to leave one below!

You Can Find Zach on Twitter @razzball_zach

  1. Allan says:
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    Hey Zach we just switched our dynasty league to idp. Our draft was last night and since I’m new to this I was hoping you could tell me how I did. Danny Trevathan, Alec Ogletree, Keanu Neal, Harrison Smith, Aaron Donald, Linval Joseph, Backups Donta Hightower and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Thanks

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Allan: hey Allan! You’ve got a great group of dudes! I especially like the Trevathan, Ogletree, Donald, Hightower and Fitzpatrick picks.

  2. Brian says:
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    CJ Anderson or Bilal Powell .5 ppr ? Also would you drop Agolar or DJ Moore for Chris Goodwin ?

    Thanks

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Brian: I would go with Anderson. I would keep onto Agholor, but you can drop D.J. Moore for Godwin.

  3. Rocket Ismail says:
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    Any idea when Razzball will be putting up your suggested Auction $ values? They’ve always been helpful in the past, and next week’s drafts are coming up!

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Rocket Ismail: Hey there, I believe Jay released it with the rest of his rankings either earlier this week or last week. Let me know if you can find them, thanks!

  4. Justin says:
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    Hey, just drafted my team. 2 QB half PPR.

    Ben roth, Alex smith, Julio Jones, ty hilton, Melvin Gordon, devonta freeman, Kyle rudolph, juju smith, Sammy Watkins, Burkhead, Peyton barber, Robby Anderson., Tarik Cohen, jordy Nelson.

    What you think?

    • Justin says:
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      @Justin: should I drop any of them to grab keelan Cole.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Justin: Really like it! Got some great depth with Burkhead, Barber, and Cohen to complement your starters, got a Top-5 TE, and some great starting receivers. I would stay put, you don’t need Keelan Cole just yet. Let’s wait and see what happens to Marqise Lee first, but even if he’s out for the year officially, I think you’re probably fine.

  5. Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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    20 team dynasty full IDP keep up to 30th, i’ve won this thing 3 years in a row, need at least 10 WAS players at all times (IR slots count, can stash 1 or more to make this min). rushing yards 10 per point, receiving 15, PPR. IDP’s DO score more here than in some leagues. my LB depth is no small part of why i’ve won all those years. i will very likely be able to grab guice at 1.20 and will. have 8 right now.

    QB (1) goff, cousins (so i’m set really good here other than losing a WAS guy)
    RB (1) perine, kelley, thompson, and can fit 2 out of these 3: lat murray, blount, ekeler
    WR (2) k.benjamin, doctson, m.will (LAC) and 1 of r.grant (appears to be the IND #2 now), pryor (he seems blocked by 3 better WR at NYJ)
    TE (1) reed, VD, RSJ (ARI) i really would rather have an extra WR or RB here, but VD is a need with reed and they have an early bye (4)
    K (1) WAS kicker
    LB (3) burfict, kwon A, l.david, e.kendricks (MIN), bucannon
    DT (2) j.allen (WAS’s 1st rounder last year, long term value probably), donald
    DE (2) cam heyward (has DT now too), c.campbell
    S (2) mathieu, baker, k.joseph (i will likely be able to trade mathieu for swearinger to add a WAS player)
    CB (2) none right now, but these are the easiest to replace, some rookie often scores the best since they get targeted, also some good ones aren’t being kept

    1. what’s best order in this league of keeping these: blount, ekeler, lat murray?
    2. should i hold RSJ over keeping all 3 of those RB’s above?
    3. grant has to be over pryor now right, due to the depth on NYJ vs IND?
    my draft plan here is to grab guice, then probably best WR in draft, a CB, stash guice, post draft grab 2nd CB.

  6. Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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    20 team dynasty full IDP keep up to 30th, i’ve won this thing 3 years in a row, need at least 10 WAS players at all times (IR slots count, can stash 1 or more to make this min). rushing yards 10 per point, receiving 15, PPR. IDP’s DO score more here than in some leagues. my LB depth is no small part of why i’ve won all those years. i will very likely be able to grab guice at 1.20 and will. have 8 right now.

    QB (1) goff, cousins (so i’m set really good here other than losing a WAS guy)
    RB (1) perine, kelley, thompson, and can fit 2 out of these 3: lat murray, blount, ekeler
    WR (2) k.benjamin, doctson, m.will (LAC) and 1 of r.grant (appears to be the IND #2 now), pryor (he seems blocked by 3 better WR at NYJ)
    TE (1) reed, VD, RSJ (ARI) i really would rather have an extra WR or RB here, but VD is a need with reed and they have an early bye (4)
    K (1) WAS kicker
    LB (3) burfict, kwon A, l.david, e.kendricks (MIN), bucannon
    DT (2) j.allen (WAS’s 1st rounder last year, long term value probably), donald
    DE (2) cam heyward (has DT now too), c.campbell
    S (2) mathieu, baker, k.joseph (i will likely be able to trade mathieu for swearinger to add a WAS player)
    CB (2) none right now, but these are the easiest to replace, some rookie often scores the best since they get targeted, also some good ones aren’t being kept

    1. what’s best order in this league of keeping these: blount, ekeler, lat murray?
    2. should i hold RSJ over keeping all 3 of those RB’s above?
    3. grant has to be over pryor now right, due to the depth on NYJ vs IND?
    my draft plan here is to grab guice, then probably best WR in draft, a CB, stash guice, post draft grab 2nd CB.

    beep boop

    • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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      @Yr Never Too Old For Balloons: for reference these will be available, plus all rookies:
      RB: yeldon, austin (WR), j.hill, sproles, ivory, prosise, j.rodgers, stewart, gallman, gillislee, c.grant
      WR: j.brown (BAL), t.will (LAC), snead, j.brown (SEA), t.benjamin, gabriel, hardy, k.wright, b.butler
      TE: dickson, mcdonald, l.willson, celek, s.anderson

      so maybe i could throw back grant and pryor and RSJ, keep all three RB’s, grab 2 WR (+ guice and CB) if that works.

      • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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        @Yr Never Too Old For Balloons: 1 offensive flex spot too, with scoring having rushing worth more using 2 RB is the way to go usually.

        • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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          @Yr Never Too Old For Balloons: i’d think the blount vs ekeler vs lat murray would be much easier if we didn’t have rush yards be worth 50% more as here. the dynasty guy(s) say cut blount (DET isn’t a good rush team, and now it’s red dick and KJ fighting for usage). lat murray probably has highest upside since d.cook could get injured and that MIN offense looks pretty damn good. ekeler is in the middle, probably safest floor (PPR value nearly 3 times that of the other 2), but probably lowest ceiling, but age he’s youngest too.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Yr Never Too Old For Balloons: I would keep Blount first, then Ekeler, then Murray. No, I would keep your RB’s. Don’t want to get too thin than you already are at RB, and you’ve got Reed anyway who should at least start the year healthy. And yes, Grant over Pryor

      • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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        @Zach: yeah lat murray or ekeler could blow up big time if cook/melgor got hurt. ekeler already with PPR stand alone value as is too. murray might have SOME standalone value, but big value if cook injury. there’s some others similar to mine not kept by others, but it’s not a good idea to drop some and HOPE once every 20 picks i get one of them.

          • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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            @Zach: got guice at 20th (stashed), ty williams LAC at 40th (all the top rookies were gone and having m.will helps this, if one of them gets hurt it helps the other), my top of the board CB at 60th (nobody ranks CB’s the same at all, and many just go by the site’s rankings). this level of CB’s wouldn’t EVER start in anything but a super deep have to start CB league anyway. a lot of the time midseason you just find that rookie who’s playing the opposite side of a GOOD CB and he kills it in tackles just from volume. t.waynes MIN is a good example, and now he’s actually pretty good too (x.rhodes other side). but often you want guys on bad teams, their D is simply out there longer (OAK, CLE, TB guys)

            funny, nobody still owns j.hill or j.brown (BAL) at all. most teams don’t hoard RB/LB like i do, interesting few others do considering how well i’ve done in this league for 3 years straight.

  7. Chucky says:
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    Jonathan Williams have any chance to make his mark during Ingram’s suspension?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Chucky: I doubt it. Might make a small impact in the real-life NFL, but it’s not going to be enough for us to start him the first four weeks in fantasy.

  8. Oliver says:
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    Not that I pay much heed to Yahoo’s Draft Report Cards, but I am hoping for a second opinion on my draft result.

    I am in a 10-team, standard scoring, keeper league. Yahoo gave me a C. Here are my picks, round-by-round.

    Rds 1-3: Julio Jones, Kareem Hunt, AJ Green (my keepers)
    Rd 4: Jordan Howard
    Rd 5: TY Hilton
    Rd 6: Ajayi
    Rd 7: Sammy Watkins
    Rd 8: Luck
    Rd 9: Trey Burton
    Rd 10: Crowell
    Rd 11: Jordy Nelson
    Rd 12: Derek Carr
    Rd 13: OJ Howard
    Rd 14: Adrian Peterson
    Rd 15: Baltimore
    Rd 16: Corey Clement (Ajayi handcuff)
    Rd 17: Kicker

    I would appreciate your overall feedback. Any glaring mistakes I should rectify with the waiver wire? Thanks in advance!

    • jason batteiger says:
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      @Oliver: literally don’t even look at that “yahoo draft b.s.” it means NOTHING at all. this is the same database that if you miss say a dynasty draft, even IF you say predraft ranked like 50 players since all your picks where within 50 picks, it would draft you a backup kicker over a top RB if you already had multiple RB’s. this actually happened to me once, i had the 7th overall in a dynasty league, it drafted a backup kicker and backup TE over my rankings (i missed gurley do to this. story does end well i later traded AP when he had about 5 good games left in his body + draft pick for gurley).

      all this to say, do not EVER miss a dynasty draft in yahoo and don’t trust anything yahoo “evaluates”.

      • Oliver says:
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        @jason batteiger: HAHA, I know. Its algorithm for determining when to draft Ks and DSTs is a disgrace. I only mention Yahoo’s report card as context for seeking affirmation of my team’s awesomeness (or lack of it).

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Oliver: Yeah, screw whatever Yahoo says, you’ve got a pretty good team. Love your starting WR’s of Julio, A.J, and Hilton, and some great starting RB options in Hunt and Howard, and some depth options in Crowell, AP and Clement. The only thing I would say is that I would drop either Carr (you’ve got Luck, you don’t need a backup for now, especially because if Luck were to go down, Carr isn’t going to be the solution) or O.J. Howard (same with Burton for now) to pick up another back to solidify your depth.

      Thanks!

  9. Paul Zone says:
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    I feel I’m weak at wr. Do you think Keelan Cole offers more upside than any of these dudes?

    Current wrs: baldwin, cobb, crowder, edelman, mike williams
    Current rbs: DJ, davonte freeman, miller, jamaal williams, montgomery, peterson, ware
    Te: Gronk

    • Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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      @Paul Zone: i’d argue cole has more upside AND floor over peterson or ware easily.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Paul Zone: Honestly, I would stay put, but if you want to grab Cole, I would drop either Peterson or Ware, yeah.

      • Paul Zone says:
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        @Zach: thanks for the input guys. I may sit tight for now since I will have to drop someone to pick up a defense at some point.

        I am beginning to lean towards dumping Monty or my backup QB (Stafford). Wilson is my QB1.

        I think we really need to consider the guys on our bench and who actually has potential to win us our league if they hit. I don’t think Monty fits the bill and there are so many quarterbacks to stream in a 10 team league.

        I know AP is old but if he rattles off a couple good games like he did in AZ last year, he has some trade value. And well if Hunt goes down, Ware is a rb1.

        Agree or disagree?

        • Zach

          Zach says:
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          @Paul Zone: Agree

  10. Sal says:
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    Should FF payers pay attention to Mock Draft Grades, results, standings or adjust to projections and ADP?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Sal: I would only pay attention to Projections and ADP. Almost everyone is wrong about something in the preseason, so don’t put too much stock into Mock Draft Grades or results, and many real drafts differ a ton from mocks.

  11. Sal says:
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    Do Mock Draft grades, rankings and such have any meaning or just go with projections and ADP?

  12. Anne Crudup says:
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    I have McKinnon in my dynasty ppr league. Do you think he is a sell high candidate, or would you hang on to him? We can start 3RBs, and I have Fournette and Gordon. Weak at every other position though. Thanks for any advice :) Sorry if I posted in the wrong place!

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Anne Crudup: No, you got it in the right place! I think you’ve already got a very solid 3-RB core, so I wouldn’t look to trade. You’re already sitting pretty, let’s see how the regular season unfolds.

  13. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    August 28, 2018 at 9:34 pm (link)
    12 team half PPR 2 QB dynasty. slow draft, missed cole by ONE pick (and i have m.lee so it REALLY hurts)
    QB: rodgers, mahomes, tyrod, rosen, foles
    RB: (2): burkhead, michel, ingram, kamara, perine
    WR (3): edleman, k.allen, jordy, d-jax, thielen
    TE (1): ertz
    2 flex (R/W/T)
    DL m.lee
    so i need WR (and perine losing value too, but these WR left are better now than the RB’s left)

    after checking with tons of sources, these are all (in different spots) the highest ranked guys left: t.williams (LAC, but having k.allen might complicate this), grant (#2 at IND), allison (dynasty guys say him here), j.brown (this almost can’t be the answer), ross, a.wilson (he got that glowing post earlier, but is the #3 at MIA), enunwa.

    RB’s: or would you grab a RB #5 here in one of : kelley, ekeler, wilkins, ware, blount, clement. i don’t need to drop anybody for this pick either.

    most sources say t.will

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: or t.smith NO, sounding like he might possibly be the #2 at NO, that would be huge.

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: or t.smith NO, sounding like he might possibly be the #2 at NO.
      beep boop

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: Yeah I’d take T Will or Ross actually from Cincy. I’m high on the Bengals offense this year

  14. Mak says:
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    half PPR league. heres my team

    antonio brown, michael thomas, mckinnon, alex collins, delanie walker, ben roth, kenyan drake, golden tate, corey davis, peyton barber, tarik cohen, andrew luck , chris thompson.

    what you think?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Mak: Did a fine job in the draft, I love it! Good luck this season homie!

  15. Justin says:
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    hey man. half PPR league with 1 QB. can you check my team out.

    QB: Ben roth, jared goff.

    WR:golden tate, corey davis, marquise goodwin, brandin cooks, jamison crowder, keelan cole, kelvin benjamin

    RB: zeke, melvin gordon, tevin coleman, chris thompson, james white

    TE: Gronk

    • Justin says:
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      @Justin: also, whats your opinion on drafting two QB’s in a 1 QB league. also i took gronk around pick #23. not sure where to draft that guy to be honest.

      • Zach

        Zach says:
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        @Justin: For Big Ben, it’s smart that you grabbed a backup. It usually depends in general on the strength of your QB1 if you need a backup or not

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Justin: Really great. Love the RB core, Gronk, Big Ben and Goff, and you’ve got some great high-upside receivers with Tate, Davis, Goodwin and Crowder.

      Job well done!

      • Justin says:
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        @Zach: cheers! also, did i draft gronk too early? took him as my third pick. always been curious to hear where is a good spot to draft gronk since hes a TE.

        • Zach

          Zach says:
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          @Justin: 3rd overall? That’s a little steep. I would usually like to have him in the 2nd or 3rd round

  16. Joel

    Joel says:
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    Kupp or Aaron Williams flex week 1? Ppr

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Joel: Haven’t done too much research on Week 1 so far but I think I’d go with Kupp for now

Comments are closed.