I can’t figure it out.  I have spent years defending myself, and staving off attacks from everywhere and everyone, but I can’t, for the life of me, figure out why people like the Beatles.  I know I am in the minority, and am always willing to admit that I am the oddball, but people are always more than happy to tell me that “I am wrong”, and “you don’t know what you are talking about”, and “they’re not really your children.”

Does this ever happen to you?  Going against popular convention can be tricky, but sometimes you have to go with your gut.  And my gut has said one thing very loud and clearly to me for this upcoming fantasy season… avoid LeSean McCoy.

Let’s get the perfunctory ball-fondling out of the way.  The kid is a beast.  As talented a running back as I have ever seen.  He has never averaged less than 4 yards per carry over an entire season, ever!  That’s straight up magical.

Now let’s analyze how things are rounding out this year in Buffalo.  The Bills have traded away their top WR, are having injury and confidence concerns at the QB position, and they have added perennial TD and reception vulture Mike Tolbert.  McCoy’s value has always been buoyed by his receiving skills, but Tolbert is slated to start vulturing away 3rd down snaps with his talented blitz pickup and receiving skills (he had 50 catches in 2011 with Carolina).  He won’t take all of them, but enough of them.

And Shady’s QB situation is even more of a concern.  His QB, Tyrod Taylor, has been in the concussion protocol almost the entire preseason, and is hoping to be ready for week 1.  This sounds like good news, but don’t forget, Taylor has averaged 500 rushing yards, and 5 rushing TD’s per year in Buffalo.  So sure, you want Taylor under center, but at what cost to McCoy?

The Jets have stolen the “what are they doing” headlines in the AFC East, and because of their gross ineptitude, I believe Buffalo has flown under the radar. With Sammie Watkins being dealt away, opposing defenses are going to be keying in on Shady, and making him priorities 1, 2, and 3 on the must-stop list.  While you may be thinking this will give him the lion share of the touches in that offense, I would agree with you.  All signs point to the Bills riding McCoy until the wheels fall off, as they recently released projected backup Jonathan Williams.  And to note, he has only played in all 16 games 3 times during his 8 year career.  All this taken into account, I believe this will result in his first ever sub 4.0 ypc season.  I am not saying I wouldn’t take him, but his perceived value is going to make him impossible to trade for.  According to 3 major Fantasy League Hosting websites, he went, on average, right around the 7th overall pick.  Yikes!  You miss on that pick, and your year could be toast.  Let someone else take the risk.

  1. Chris says:

    Hi Randy,

    Thanks on the McCoy info. I think also all his touches will catch up to him.

    anyways, just complete my draft for 12 team STD League, flex (W/R):

    QB – Matt Ryan
    WR – Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Golden Tate
    RB – Isaiah Crowell, Marshawn Lynch
    TE – Ertz
    W/R – McFadden
    K – Gostkowski
    DEF – Eagles
    BN – RB Perkins, RB Terrance West, WR Beasley, WR Mike Wallace, TE Julius Thomas

    I was picking 4th and by RD 2 not a lot of great RB left, so i preferred to take Cooper and wait for RD 3 for a RB.
    My Rb i believe are the weak link. Hopefully Mcfadden can be productive in the next 6 weeks with Zeke out. Perkins is a wild card.

    Top Waiver: Amendola is available. take a chance on him over any of my guys?

    DEF – i like to stream. i like the eagles this week even though it can be a high scoring game. eagles should have good sacks and the occasional pick to Cousins.

    Thanks for your thoughts!

    • bigbear says:

      @Chris: Meh on Amendola. But I bet you can drop Julius Thomas for some depth elsewhere. Personally, I think Jamaal Charles has some thread on the tires.

      I’m not a fan of the Eagles match up this week. I’m streaming Atlanta against Chicago. Cincy vs Baltimore may be a decent match up too.

    • Randy Leahy

      Randy Leahy says:

      @Chris: Hey Chris, Nasty WR, could def use help at RB. My suggestion, for your team specifically, would be to let a few Bench guys go (Beasley, Thomas) to pickup some RB’s that may be involved backups or in a committee, much like Perkins and West. Hopefully you can hit on one to balance things out. Truthfully though, your strength at WR will mask a lot of your RB troubles. Also, I don’t see Amendola getting the touches necessary to roster him. I bet they split Dorsett out wide, and put Hogan in the slot more often than not. Good Luck!

  2. bigbear says:

    Any idea why Williams was released?

    Just had my last draft Sunday. 12 team H2H with 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE.

    QB – Winston
    WR – D Thomas, Diggs, Garcon, Snead, Moncrief
    RB – Gordon, Freeman, Duke, James White, Jamaal Charles
    TE – Gronk, Fleener
    K – Bryant
    D – Houston

    Feeling a little anxious about Winston, but I do think he has the ability, weapons, and will take a step forward. Not much on the waiver wire… Flacco, Bortles, Glennon, Smith, Hoyer, Goff, Kizer, Siemian… And week 1 isn’t looking good for Winston’s game in Miami.

    I like my WRs.

    Feel good about my top 2 RBs. Would like to get some higher upside guys or maybe a handcuff. Should I grab any of these ahead of White, Duke or Charles? Oliver, Burkhead, Prosise, Perine, Jamaal WIlliams, Matt Jones, West, Gio…

    TE – I never carry two TEs. But think I will for the first week or three. I can see both of them as good trade bait.

    • Randy Leahy

      Randy Leahy says:

      @bigbear: The Williams things blew my mind. The Broncos signed him to the practice squad, and had to pay him more than some active roster members to get him; over $500,000. As far as those QB’s you listed, I would pick Goff: Home team, weak opponent, improved weapons. Good Luck!

  3. BC says:

    Would you trade Thielen for Kupp and Jamal Williams in a standard league? Thanks!

    • Randy Leahy

      Randy Leahy says:

      @BC: All things equal, I would rather have Thielen. He’s a dark horse to lead Vikings in catches this year. Kupp and Williams have no guarantees.

  4. Jeff P says:

    Somehow, I ended up with Ameer Abdullah as my RB2 in two different leagues.
    Week 1 would you start Abdullah or
    1. Mark Ingram (half-ppr)
    2. Mike Gillislee (standard)

    • Randy Leahy

      Randy Leahy says:

      @Jeff P: Until things become clearer, I would go with Abdullah in both.

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