faab-davante

FAAB waiver wire acquisitions time. These recommendations are ghoulish. Ghastly even. I hope you read my post from last week, because it was funny. I hope you did NOT follow the advice I was giving regarding Jay Ajayi because it was terrible. You might even say it was a disaster (believe me). It’s like a skeleton in my closet. I was lukewarm on Ajayi and I basically told a reader not to drop Isaiah Crowell for him, because it would be a “lateral move”. Yeah not so much. Well, we know he won’t continue to be that good. I’ve been led to believe 200 yard rushing games are rare. This week we  will consider Davante Adams, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Thompson and Alfred Blue, among others…

General FAAB advice:  The more players of a given position that are available in a certain week, the less you have to spend on them. This is particularly true if you view them all as roughly equal, there’s just no point in putting in a very high bid on any particular player in that case.

Davante Adams ($5) – He hath risen from the dead after a brutally inefficient 2015, just in time for Halloween. He’s actually been good this year and maybe, somehow, (but almost certainly not) he is the Packers best receiver. I mean, that’d be just plain backwards. But Randall Cobb hasn’t been particularly good and as far as Jordy Nelson, I’m not sure if it’s the change in scheme or what but the production we are used to seeing just hasn’t been there. His game logs look like James Jones’ game logs.

Chris Thompson ($4) – Matt Jones’ fumbling woes have come back and Thompson and Robert Kelley will benefit. Thompson was already worth owning, he gets a slight uptick while Robert Kelley might get a try at the 1st and 2nd down role next week and he has the bigger upside in standard. Right now I only consider him a deep league add.

Darren Sproles ($3) – Ryan Mathews has not had a good year and now, just in time for the beginning of cold and flu season he’s caught a case of the fumbles. (Insert sad trombone sound for this terrible joke). Sproles will always be limited to about 10 carries or less so his upside is capped. Smallwood would be the biggest beneficiary if they moved away from Mathews, so basically this is the same as the Washington running back situation.

Alfred Blue ($2) – There’s some Lamar Miller worry as I have on the Monday Night Football program as I write this. Alfred Blue is his clear handcuff.

Cordarrelle Patterson ($2) – It’s finally time to consider him in 12-team leagues. His usage and production the past three weeks have both been solid. I think in standard leagues he’s still somewhat borderline but in 12-team PPR formats he’s an add for a team in need of help. He has a higher than average catch percentage because of the types of routes he runs.

Breshad Perriman ($1) – Steve Smith Sr. is banged up, Mike Wallace isn’t very good. There were reports last Sunday saying basically that Joe Flacco’s arm was just barely hanging on, but hey, he played anyway. Sure would be nice for Mr. Perriman if Flacco could get healthy.

10-team League FAAB…

Ty Montgomery ($10) – I don’t know how many carries he will receive from now on but even if it’s only 5 per game that’s some pretty significant extra value.

Knile Davis ($9) – Did nothing last week but they basically have nothing else at running back right now. I mean, I think if they were serious about using Don Jackson they would have. Ty Montogmery has been good in his role but unless they are modifying the offense (possible) they will need to make use of a traditional running back. I also think he may be a better running back than James Starks (currently injured), because that’s not very hard.

Devontae Booker ($8) – Seems like he’s been in this post 9 times already this year.

Quincy Enunwa ($4) – If he was dropped in your league, pick him up. It’s simple!

Deep League FAAB…

J.J. Nelson ($6) – Michael Floyd has been terrible, John Brown and Jaron Brown are injured. So maybe J.J. Nelson should have made an appearance in the 12-team section.

Peyton Barber ($5) – Doug Martin will be out.. oh who the hell knows how long.

And do me a favor a keep your fingers crossed for some positive news on the “Dion Lewis returns to practice front”.

You’re in luck, here’s this bonus, Halloween edition, image:

riversteethghastly

 

 

Follow Lance on Twitter @Rotolance.

  1. John says:
    (link)

    Would you drop T Benjamin and pick up G Tate, T Williams, or D Adams from waivers? I’m leaning toward Williams because of his schedule. Thanks.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @John: Tyrell Williams? Terrance Williams? Am I forgetting any T Williams?

      • John says:
        (link)

        @RotoLance: tyrell, sorry

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
          (link)

          @John: Yeah I figured Tyrell, Terrance would be a strange player to put in, he’s not in the class of the others.

          So this is a very close one. Davante Adams has averaged the most points among them but I’d probably rank them Tyrell, Davante, Tate. I expect Tate to do a little bit better so it’s very close. I actually like Davante’s schedule best. He’s already had his bye so that helps.

  2. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
    (link)

    On second thought it almost certainly takes a higher bid to acquire Davante in a 12 team league. $10, maybe, depending on your league.

  3. JimmyJackJames says:
    (link)

    In a bye week pinch in a 14 team PPR league – do you offer Howard for Edelman (still have Ware, McKinnon, McCoy, Gillisie and Booker at RB) or drop Dion Lewis for someone like Coradelle Patterson?

    Thanks man

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @JimmyJackJames: This is where it really helps to have a plan and vision for your team. Like, what do you want it to be going forward.

      Jordan Howard for Julian Edelman is an amazing deal for you in PPR. Howard is in a time share. Carey out snapped him. Try that first, I guess, if you think it has a chance to succeed.

      I don’t like the idea of dropping Dion Lewis, but in the pinch you are in, sure. Mike Gillislee might be the player to drop instead, or at least to consider dropping. He and Reggie Bush were in a pretty even time share so Gillislee is not the handcuff we thought he might be. Or at least he wasn’t the that game. I mean, who knows.

      Patterson has a great matchup so I like what you are thinking here. If you have to make the claim tonight that’s tough because we might know more about the BUF RB situation later this week, although probably not. We might no more about Lewis by Wednesday though. I’m looking at it like this:: Is Gillislee any better than Booker, even if McCoy were to miss more time?

      I don’t have an answer for you.

      I did find this on Bush v Gillislee, from Twitter “@ChrisRaybon 4h4 hours ago
      With LeSean McCoy bowing out after 40% of #Bills snaps, Mike Gillislee finished with 37%, Reggie Bush 32%.” Obviously you can easily look up touches for yourself.

      • JimmyJackJames says:
        (link)

        @RotoLance: Thanks, great and detailed answer. I’m throwing the Howard for Edelman offer out there – 50/50 shot b/c the guy who has Edelman also has Langford.

        If that doesn’t work, the issue I have is my league has 2 FLEX spots with no kicker – so technically, I can start 4 of Ware, Booker, Howard, McKinnon and McCoy or Gillisie this week and will need to b/c of timing of byes for my other players.

        I drafted Dion Lewis and have held onto him this long but I’m not sure if it’s worth counting on his coming back 100% over someone who is actually playing. If the Pats keep winning, I feel like they don’t even have any reason to rush him back.

        Another option is to drop Eli and roll with Dak for as long as he starts and maybe try to pickup Romo next week.

        Again, I appreciate your feedback – thanks!

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
          (link)

          @JimmyJackJames: If you have a chance to make the playoffs it’s hard to drop Lewis. I’m 100% with what you said about him / the Patriots.

          I think maybe I agree with dropping Eli instead. It’s easier if most teams are only rostering 1 QB and, yeah it’s easier with Romo out there on the wire.

          • JimmyJackJames says:
            (link)

            @RotoLance: Thanks, really appreciate your feedback – agree with you on Lewis, would be a nice piece to have come playoff time…

        • CMUTimmah says:
          (link)

          @JimmyJackJames: I wouldn’t be too sure of the Romo pheonix. As long as Dak goes .500 from here on out, I think he holds that job.

          As for Eli, he’s been terrible. I figured with Cruz actually providing something this year and Sheppard replacing Rueben Randle that Eli would be very good. Truth is, Eli needs to true pass catching tight end to be good. Donnell and Tye don’t fit that bill very well, so I’m not so high on him the rest of the year. Depending of who is on the wire, I’d cut him loose to add talent.

          • JimmyJackJames says:
            (link)

            @CMUTimmah: Thanks – I expected a lot from Eli and the fact that I’m a Giants fan I think further inflates his value to me. I’m dumping him in a 12 team league I’m in and frankly, I’m thinking Dak and/or Romo could be just as good if not better than Eli from here on out.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
            (link)

            @CMUTimmah: Thanks for reading and chiming in. Dak is my QB2 in my OP(SuperFlex) home league. I’m _really_ hoping he holds that job. I’m 4-3 in that league after Geno Smith let me down during Dak’s bye, well only because of the injury, otherwise I probably win my matchup. I’ve been reading the 3M threat of McCoy, (D) Murray and (C) Michael.

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
              (link)

              @RotoLance: *riding

              • JimmyJackJames says:
                (link)

                @RotoLance: Dion Lewis back to practice this week – glad you talked me into holding onto him!

                • RotoLance

                  RotoLance says:
                  (link)

                  @JimmyJackJames: Uh oh

                  “The ACL healed fine for Lewis after surgery was performed by renowned sports orthopedist, Dr. James Andrews. But knee pain that developed during the summer was found to be a patella stress fracture. That kind of injury is rare but not unheard of after ACL repairs as quadriceps flexion can put stress on a grafted area (and Lewis has giant quads). The remedy is inserting screws in the patella which was done in Lewis’ case. ”

                  :(

                  http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/expect-patriots-tread-carefully-lewis-nears-return-knee-surgery

                  This, to me, makes it almost worse than if he weren’t going to return to practice this week because we have reason to suspect he’ll be brought along very slowly.

                  Maybe we are looking at week 12 before he’s ready to contribute, wild, wild guess.

  4. What's a Drexl? says:
    (link)

    don jackson got hurt, so it’s by no means clear he would or wouldn’t have been used over montgomery/kniles etc.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @What’s a Drexl?: Yeah, I hear ya. Good point. I don’t know what the Packers intentions are with Knile Davis. It _should_ be to use him. Don’t give up a draft pick, even a late one, for a running back that you aren’t planning on using quite a bit. If you are planning on going without a true running back on most plays, then don’t give up a draft pick for a running back. But teams make bad decisions almost constantly.

      • What's a Drexl? says:
        (link)

        @RotoLance: also there was an article by somebody here at razz showing how GB in particular is partial to trusting guys who have been in their system for a bit much more than most teams, and that this applies even to practice squad guys. starks over the years exemplifies this.

  5. omar says:
    (link)

    12 team 1pt PPR

    Which side would you prefer ROS?

    A-Rob
    Ajayi
    Gronk

    Or

    Antonio Brown
    Carlos Hyde
    Eifert

    Thanks

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @omar: First ranking all the players in order will help. Brown > Gronk > Ajayi > Hyde > Eifert. Robinson could be slotted in before Ajayi or after Hyde. This really all depends on Robinson. I’m quite wary of him at this point. I wouldn’t have been 3 weeks ago. Also realize that ranking Ajayi ahead of Hyde is at least as much about my dislike of Hyde. I just fear he can’t/won’t stay healthy. It’s been an issue for him, it’s one I hope he can get past.

      Another way to look at this would be, is Ajayi better or equal to Hyde + Eifert? Because A-Rob + Gronk are better than Brown.

      So I guess I like A-Rob and Ajayi just enough to take the Gronk side.

  6. Nick says:
    (link)

    who would you drop first in a 10-team standard, Coates or John Brown?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @Nick: I see the reports are saying that John Brown will be back this week and he’s the clear #2 if he can get back to his old self, so I’d drop Coates first. But with this bit of news on Eli Rogers “the Louisville product appears to have fallen out of favor with the Pittsburgh coaching staff.” I really don’t want to drop Coates when his best competition for the role as 2nd best fantasy receiver is Darrius Heyward-Bey. But I guess do what you have to do and chop Coates.

      • Nick says:
        (link)

        @RotoLance: Interesting…here is my roster for further discussion;

        QB-Have Dalton (targeting Carr on waivers to replace him)
        RB-D Johnson/D Freeman
        WR-Marshall/Snead/Maclin
        Flex-L Murray
        TE-Graham
        Bench-Big Ben, R Jennings, D Booker, T Benjamin, Coates, J Brown
        Santos Kicking & AZ D

        Thoughts? Its a 10team standard & I’m somehow 5-2. Waivers include options like D Adams, Lafell, Asiata, Thompson, Goodwin, Zenner, Crowder…I was targeting the first 2 WRs (dropping J Brown or Coates) as I’d like to bench Maclin this upcoming week…

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
          (link)

          @Nick: Yeah I think what you are doing here is fine. I’m not sure how much of an upgrade Davante or LaFell are vs the others, I just don’t feel strongly about it one way or the other.

  7. Brian says:
    (link)

    Would you be trying to trade James White and CMIKE since Lewis and Rawls will be back soon and their value would most likely take a hit ? Ty

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @Brian: No, not really. It depends on what you can get for them. I’ll handle James White first, I mentioned some things last week so I’ll be like Grey here, this is me, quoting myself: “Thanks for reading. James White is good, but he’s no (healthy) Dion Lewis. However, there is a chance Lewis won’t get back his old form this year, then White remains a decent play not just now but for the rest of the season.” White had 0 rushes, 2 receptions last week and because he had a TD he still had a decent fantasy day. Dion Lewis was always used quite a bit more than that last year. So basically what I’m saying is that’s evidence of what I said in quotes to a commenter last week, that’s evidence that they think more highly of Lewis than White. A healthy Lewis is just plain better.

      C-Mike is my favorite for the most carries even with a “healthy” Rawls. I put that in quotes because, I don’t know, I’m just concerned about how healthy he’ll every be this year.

      It’s fine to trade them as long as you value them for what they are and in my opinion C-Mike stays a top 20RB. James White could stay the RB30 or so that he is now or take a drastic hit once Lewis comes back. I suspect that you’ll get less for White, but more for White relative to White’s value. C-Mike’s value could value greatly from owner to owner, so that’s just tough to say.

  8. David says:
    (link)

    Looking to add Adams, Thompson, and Fitzpatrick this week. I think they are must grabs. I have $54 left in FAAB and I think I should consider going for broke. My reasons:

    Adams – this week looking at starting Cameron Meredith in place of my starter Sterling Shepard in my #2 flex spot. Definite improvement talking upside with CHI QB in limbo. I’m budgeting $25 (close to 50% of remaining FAAB). May have to consider going up to $34 since the lowest competitors budget is $33.

    Thompson – simply because I own inconsistent Matt Jones as my RB2 and being in a PPR league I think right now Thomp is a better option ongoing with potential increased touches. I’m thin at running back depth (Powell, Rainey, Perkins). Zeke is my #1 though. My team is built on WR so I don’t need a lot of production at this position. Budgeting $15.

    Fitzpatrick – in a 2 QB league, waiting on ben to come back, I need to improve on Wentz as my current backup. Fitz has a plus matchup and decent ones after until ben comes back. My other QB is Cam BTW. I’m budgeting $5, but can go up to $14 for either of them.

    That would break the bank. I don’t foresee any big time acquisitions left out there for remainder of season. If i sustain any injuries I can then look to trades.

    Current week 8 lineup:
    QB’s: Cam, Wentz (looking to improve w/ Fitz)
    RB’s: Zeke, Jones
    WR’s: Jones, Cooper, Demaryious
    TE: Rudolph
    Flex: Kelvin Benji, Meredith

    Bench: Kessler (dropping of course), Ben, Morris, Perkins, Powell, Rainey (will be dropping), Shepard

    BTW, this is also a keeper league. I can retain Wentz ownership off the active roster (practice squad) since I won him in auction. He’s my 3rd drop.

    Thoughts?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @David: I think you have a great plan. At the very least you have a well defined thought process.

      I have heard that Jay Cutler will play this week and for one thing we don’t know what that means for Meredith but even if it’s a good thing, starting Meredith against the Vikings will certainly make for a frightful night on Halloween!

      Didn’t you already ask me about picking up Thompson for one of those other guys? Sorry if I gave you the wrong answer. Maybe I’m thinking of someone else. Anyway, good luck.

      • David says:
        (link)

        always have a plan. didn’t ask about Thompson before. I actually had Adams week 2 for $0 and dropped him week 4 for Bobby Rainey. Sometimes you wonder.

        I think this week more than others (in my league at least), these are 2 quality depth players that will be worth the money long term in Adams & Thompason. Last week was Ty, week 6 was Jaquizz (I picked up Cameron who was looking at being high impact), week 5 white, and week 4 to 1, nobody. Again this is in my league. Every other big pick-up this year was already owned.

        I can win without Adams of course but Thompson may be of bigger importance for me. In my league though, WR just have more value which is why the high price tag.

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
          (link)

          @David: Yeah you asked me about dropping either Rainey, Perkins or Langford earlier but not in the context of Thompson. I sort of mashed up your comment and someone else’s. Looks like your bid on Duke Johnson was too weak so you still own Rainey hehe. My home league allows $0 claims as well, I like to encourage, not discourage activity in my league and the $0 bid helps with that.

          • David says:
            (link)

            yes, that duke bid was too low. I should of bid on Ty last week, that was a big mistake for me. I let him pass.

            Would you go for broke at this point being in my shoes? Should I up the Adams bid to at least outbid the lowest contender? Or at least do that for Thompson?

            The way I have it planned, it’d leave $14 left for remainder of season. I figure that if there is any major injuries, the waiver won’t help me at this point over resorting to trade.

            • David says:
              (link)

              also funny thing with the rules in our league. Very carefully crafted, I think. We put a heavy onus on points scored indicating a stronger team over W-L record. We have the league split into 2 conferences (5 & 5). Playoffs is 6 teams. 1-4 is based on 1 & 2 seeds from each conference. Tie breaker being points. The wild card slots are based on points only (not record). Right now, 5th place is occupied by a 1-6 team (just won 1st game last week). I just think its very interesting thing happening here. W-L is luck. 35 points separates him and 7th place who has 4 wins. Interesting, no? Right now I’m 5-2 and in 2nd place for playoffs. I can remain patient with my squad to get healthy. But always looking to improve my depth. Thanks for the great work.

              • RotoLance

                RotoLance says:
                (link)

                @David: “great work”, that’s a good one! Thank you. I’m highly interested in various formats that are more “fair” so I find this idea intriguing. I’m 4-3 in my home league as the top scoring team, having scored 70 more points than the 2nd highest scoring team. One team is 7-0 and is a median scoring team, I’ve outscored that team by 180 points, also 24% more points. A whopping margin.

                • David says:
                  (link)

                  See? You deserve something for being amongst points leaders. The record is somewhat luck. Not taking away (7-0 would be awesome). Building a team that scores a lot of points is the skill which should be rewarded. I try and push that agenda in other leagues.

                  Just to update I lost Adams by $1. Fitz was bid very heavy at $30 so I had no shot there. Ended up with Thompson for $20, LaFell at $6, and Kelley for nothing on my contingency picks.

                  Now McCown is available and looks to be starting. Gonna chase him as a start over Wentz. I’ll have to drop someone. Will look at that later.

                  • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
                    (link)

                    @David: when we’re dealing with the very small sample that FF is (16 max weeks and that includes playoffs) a record isn’t really “somewhat” luck, it’s quite a lot. other than instances of a team with the most points being either VERY good (like 80 pts more than 2nd place that week) and other weeks fairly bad (bottom 4 in points) i.e. a high standard deviation, a team with the most points by a decent margin (like you are here) should most definitely have a better record if luck wasn’t a very large factor. there’d be an exact formula for just how lucky a team is or isn’t (which is really another way of saying how far off of expected results a team’s record is by probability), but i’m not as versed on this as i used to be. there’d probably be some table in Wong’s “sharp sports betting” approximating it though.

                    • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
                      (link)

                      @Eli Man Penguin Boy: in fact , now that i’m in fantrax i’ll next year set up at least 1 or 2 leagues that “get rid of luck” meaning EVERY team plays EACH OTHER every week. so the luck is attempted to be cut in 1/11th. in baseball speak it’s effectively 13 separate roto seasons before the playoffs. playoffs itself could either repeat this or go one on one in playoffs.

                    • RotoLance

                      RotoLance says:
                      (link)

                      @Eli Man Penguin Boy: In reference to your other nearby post, which it won’t let me reply to (too many indentations?, I don’t know, there is simply no reply button below that post).

                      When applied to a regular H2H season, my name for what you are referring to is Expected Wins. Sort of a nod to how in probability E(x) is the expected (or average) value of x.

                      I’ll have to check out fantrax.

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
              (link)

              @David: This gets somewhat complex and I’m too tired to properly analyze it right now. Maybe I’ll take a stab at it tomorrow. If your waivers haven’t cleared already.

  9. Nick says:
    (link)

    Would you pivot from streaming Mariota (has Thur night game-makes me nervous), to a plus matchup for Palmer (albeit with thin WRs), Osweiler or Dak?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
      (link)

      @Nick: I’d go Palmer there, regardless of Thursday night.

Comments are closed.