Zach is Buried So Far in the Rankings that it Ertz

As with most rookie tight ends, it took a few years for Zach Ertz to get comfortable in the league but once he got comfortable, he got COMFORTABLE. From 2015 to 2019, he garnered at least 100 targets in each season, caught at least 74 passes, racked up at least 800 yards, and had a yards-per-target of at least 7.5 in all but one season. In 2018, he caught 116 of 153 targets for 1163 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished as the number 11, 8, 3, 3, and 5 fantasy tight end over that span. Then 2020 happened: 36 catches on 72 targets for 335 yards and one touchdown in 11 games. Writing that Ertz me. Do you know what Ertz me even more, though? Before the start of last season, he was being drafted as the number 55 overall player in NFFC drafts. This season? Number 177. Here’s why he’s a value:

For much of the offseason, it was assumed that Ertz was not going to be playing for the Eagles this upcoming season. There were trade rumors galore. As a result, the ADP for Ertz started in the 140 range and slowly decreased as the days progressed. Or is it increased? As with most things in life, I guess it depends on the perspective. At the same time, the Dallas Goedert spaceship fueled up, lifted off, and began its ascent into the heavens. 

Then a funny thing happened. Ertz didn’t get traded. But the ADP kept going lower. And lower. And lower. 

He out-targeted Goedert 3-to-1 and out-snapped him 7-to-5 in the first preseason game. The snap count in the second preseason game was four for Goedert and three for Ertz. I wasn’t able to find the data for the third preseason game. If the first two games are any indication, though, Ertz is going to be involved in the offense. That said, it was only preseason so we don’t know if that’s how things are going to play out in the regular season. Let’s look at last season then. 

Since Goedert was drafted by the Eagles, his usage and snap counts have steadily increased, so I get the decrease in the market price for Ertz and increase for Goedert. Last year, both played 11 games but all the games didn’t overlap since each missed games at different times. I’m most interested in the three games that Jalen Hurts started, which were in weeks 14 to 16. The snap counts and targets were:

The Eagles and Titans led the league in 12 personnel last season at 35%. The market has been pricing in most of the snaps and usage going to Goedert but it doesn’t look like that’s going to be the case. I think there’s a chance it’s split down the middle.

Rudy has Goedert with 766 snaps and 88 targets while Ertz is at 545 snaps and 67 targets. I hate going against Rudy and his bot but I think the snap counts could be a little low for Ertz. As for the target distribution, say it’s more 50/50 with both getting 75 targets. There are 15 tight ends projected for at least 75 targets this season by Rudy. Now let’s add in the fact that Ertz garnered 72 targets in only 11 games last season. That pace would have had him above 100 targets.

Part of the reason Ertz struggled last season was due to an injury. He suffered a high ankle sprain and was placed on the IR for four weeks. In the offseason, he had ankle surgery and is now “in the best shape of his life!” It’s usually prudent to be skeptical of talk like that but an injury hampered his season last year, he addressed the problem, and is now healthy. That shouldn’t be dismissed. 

At his draft cost, it’s all reward and very little risk. I think the market is off here and didn’t correct after news of good health and no trade.