Unlike last week when I was still licking my wounds from being eliminated in the Razzball Guillotine league, I’m in a good mood this week. I won practically everywhere, including high score in my Scott Fish Bowl league, and top 1 or 2 in my other Guillotine leagues. I was able to watch a pair of Monday Night Football games with no sweat or stress. That’s more like it. I’ll be looking for the same this week.
As it turns out, this week’s Zone vs. Gap data is highlighting some excellent RB plays, which I’ll get to in a minute. We’ve now reached the point in the season where we’re pulling from 6 weeks of data. That is a magical number in terms of fantasy data because it’s both not too old to be out-of-date and current enough to pick up on adjustments. We found that this is the sweet spot in compiling data so I’m excited to share what we have.
As always, you can view the Defensive Zone vs. Gap splits HERE and the RB Zone vs. Gap splits HERE. I’ll add the former table to the bottom of this article. For RB-specific numbers, go to the tool. Remember, it’s FREE!
Also, if you want a short refresher (or tutorial, if you’re new to this tool) on the table, simply go back to my previous article HERE.
Don’t just stop at RBs! We have a whole suite of FREE tools as well as Rudy’s premium tools to provide everything you need, no matter your fantasy taste. Here are links to both:
Be sure to check out Razzball Football’s updated rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
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Review of Week 6 Analysis
Zone Matchups:
- Atlanta Falcons (vs. Buffalo Bills)
- Analysis: “The numeral uno Zone matchups this week is the Falcons (#2 ranked Zone Offense) versus the Bills (#23 ranked Zone Defense). On the flip side, the Gap matchup for ATL vs. BUF is ranked #30. That shouldn’t be a problem because both Bijan Robinson (70% Zone, 28% Gap) and Tyler Allgeier (67% Zone, 30% Gap) excel in the former. If you’re hurting at RB, starting Allgeier in a deep league may not be the worst play.”
- Result: Well, I don’t have to say much here. Bijan Robinson rushed 19 times for 170 yards and a Tuddy, plus adding 6 receptions for 68 yards! I could go on-and-on here but what we’re concerned about most is his Zone vs. Gap splits, which ended up being 79% Zone and 21% Gap. Atlanta took advantage of the matchup…and came away with a W. Nice work!
- Seattle Seahawks (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Analysis: “Next on the Zone matchup, coming in at #1A for the week, is Seattle (#4 ranked Zone Offense) versus Jacksonville (#25 ranked Zone Defense). Once again, the Gap matchup is flopped, coming in at #28. Have no fear, Kenneth Walker III (54% Zone, 44 Gap) and especially Zach Charbonnet (75% Zone, 21% Gap) should feast under the proper game plan.”
- Result: The Seahawks traveled across county to beat the upstart Jaguars, but it wasn’t on the backs of their RBs. Kenneth Walker III (80% Zone) and Zach Charbonnet (58% Zone) combined for just 22 carries and 58 yards. Gross! Good thing for Seahawks fans that Sam Darnold came through.
Gap Matchups:
- Tampa Bay Bucanneers (vs. San Francisco 49ers):
- Analysis: “Tampa Bay (#3 ranked Gap Offense) draws the best matchup of the week against the 49ers (#30 ranked Gap Defense). The only question is, will Bucky Irving (68% Gap) return or will it be another Rachaad White (57% Gap) week?”
- Result: White (94% Gap) had a decent day for his fantasy owners with 65 yards rushing (3.8 yards per carry) and a TD. He also added 3 Rec for 21 yards in the air. As we all know and love, especially in PPR leagues, those reception yards are a bonus. A total of 17.6 fantasy points for your #2 RB is always welcomed.
- Los Angeles Rams (vs. Baltimore Ravens):
- Analysis: “Another one I really like is the Los Angeles Rams (#6 ranked Gap Offense) versus the floundering Baltimore (#19 ranked Zone Defense). Since the Rams perform much better on the ground behind Gap blocking, perhaps they should bump up Kyren Williams (54% Gap) usage accordingly.”
- Result: Williams (only 38% Gap) had a pedestrian day on the ground with just 50 yards but got into the end zone and added a pair of receptions to produce for his fantasy owners. Perhaps the Rams should have run more behind Gap blocking schemes.
- Baltimore Ravens (vs. Los Angeles Rams):
- Analysis: “In the same game, Baltimore (#14 ranked Gap Offense) limps in versus a stout Rams squad (#5 ranked Gap Defense). If the Ravens continue to split Henry’s runs evenly (48% Gap, 52% Zone), it may be another long afternoon for his fantasy owners.”
- Result: Baltimore leaned heavy on the run and Henry ran primarily behind Zone blocking (79% Zone) rather than Gap blocking (21% Gap) for 122 yards. As you can see, the Ravens DID NOT split Henry’s runs evenly and he found success on the ground. Unfortunately for the team, it wasn’t enough to break the losing streak.
So again, not a perfect prediction week but the tool was on point for a vast majority of them. I’ll take it. On to Week 7.
Week 7 Matchups
Zone Matchups
There are a bunch of real nice Zone matchups to go after this week. Let’s take a look:
- The top Zone matchups this week is the Raiders, yes, the Raiders Offense, coming in with the 3rd highest Zone rushing scheme versus the Chiefs with the lowest ranked Zone defense (that means they’re VERY GOOD against Gap rushing). What does this mean for Ashton Jeanty? Well, he’s still taking on a heavy workload (23 rushing attempts last week) and if he sticks to his ratios (65% Zone, 33% Gap), there should be some room to run.
- The Saints have a nice matchup as well versus the Bears. The problem here is how much do we trust Alvin Kamara (54% Zone) to take on a full workload or will Kendre Miller (67% Zone) continue to cut into the carries. This one isn’t a slam dunk with the Saints (11th ranked Zone offense) vs the Bears (24th ranked Zone defense), but there’s enough here to start Kamara as a RB#2 and consider Miller as a Flex option in deeper leagues.
- Other Zone matchups that stand out in the data are fantasy no-brainers, despite what look like tough matchups on paper:
- Saquon Barkley (68% Zone) and the Eagles (12th ranked Zone offense) versus the Vikings (31st ranked Zone defense).
- De’vone Achane (63% Zone) and the Dolphins (8th ranked Zone offense) versus the Browns (20th ranked Zone defense).
- A couple Zone matchups that don’t look so great:
- Chase Brown (42% Zone) has a decent Zone matchup versus the Steelers (28th ranked Zone defense) but between the O-line issues and the fact they primarily run Gap, it doesn’t feel like a good play.
- Jordan Mason (73% Zone) doesn’t have a great matchup against the Eagles (8th ranked Zone defense) front seven.
Gap Matchups
- Arizona (#2 Gap rushing offense) nabs the best Gap matchup against Green Bay (25th Gap rushing defense). Bam Knight (73% Gap) and Michael Carter (68% Gap) lead the way for the Cardinals, but this looks like a true timeshare. It doesn’t pass the smell test to me, I’m going to proceed with caution here despite the data suggesting otherwise.
- A Gap matchup I do like is Washington (#3 Gap rushing offense) versus Dallas (#14 Gap rushing defense).Jacory Croskey-Merritt (72% Gap) is the clear lead back and should be a good play this week.
- Rachaad White (69% Gap) and the #1 Gap rushing offense faces a good Lions (#12 Gap rushing defense) squad. As usual, we should expect White’s contributions in the passing game to be icing on the cake, especially if he takes advantage of the Gap matchup and lands in the end zone again.
- The lowly Jets (sorry, J-E-T-S) and their 30th Gap rushing offense draws a Panthers (#16 Gap rushing defense) team that comes off a game where they limited the Cowboys to a total of 31 rushing yards. That doesn’t bode well for Breece Hall (23% Gap).
That’s All Folks
Do you take advantage of all our free tools? If you don’t, why not? All of the RazzballNFL staff is here to help so get on the ball. Be sure to read our daily articles and especially join us on gameday morning for the Razzball Sunday Start/Sit show. We had another great turnout last Sunday with excellent (i.e., tough) lineup questions to talk through. Keep bringing it!
As always, the show airs LIVE on the Razzball YouTube channel this Sunday from 11:00 am EDT (8:00 PDT) right up right up to gametime. Sky – @SkyGuasco, Matt – @Stiles08, Dave – @Crewser128, Jeff – @Jefferson__21 and I will be there to answer all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
As always, look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m also on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Team | Def_Designed Rush Yds/Gm | Def Zone Yds/Gm | Def Gap Yds/Gm | Def Zone% | Def Gap% | Def Undesigned Scr Yds/Gm | Next Opponent | Off Rush Yds/Gm | Off Zone% | Off Gap% | Off Scr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 103 | 57.8 | 37.6 | 54% | 36% | 0 | LA | 118 | 43% | 52% | 3% | |
| ATL | 107 | 30.4 | 72.5 | 38% | 57% | 0 | SEA | 117 | 58% | 37% | 1% | |
| BLT | 77 | 34.1 | 39.1 | 47% | 48% | 0 | PIT | 86 | 62% | 34% | 1% | |
| BUF | 111 | 56.0 | 45.1 | 53% | 38% | 0 | CIN | 115 | 49% | 41% | 1% | |
| CAR | 142 | 85.3 | 51.2 | 61% | 36% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| CHI | 101 | 58.6 | 35.3 | 63% | 31% | 0 | GB | 98 | 55% | 43% | 0% | |
| CIN | 139 | 77.3 | 45.7 | 59% | 33% | 0 | BUF | 137 | 51% | 44% | 1% | |
| CLV | 94 | 46.3 | 34.5 | 51% | 35% | 0 | TEN | 56 | 41% | 42% | 2% | |
| DAL | 81 | 25.0 | 47.3 | 36% | 50% | 0 | DET | 141 | 57% | 40% | 1% | |
| DEN | 78 | 32.5 | 37.2 | 43% | 46% | 0 | LV | 39 | 55% | 30% | 2% | |
| DET | 92 | 48.8 | 34.4 | 52% | 40% | 0 | DAL | 107 | 58% | 31% | 6% | |
| GB | 107 | 58.0 | 44.3 | 55% | 41% | 0 | CHI | 137 | 60% | 34% | 4% | |
| HST | 67 | 31.6 | 29.3 | 43% | 43% | 0 | KC | 90 | 65% | 24% | 4% | |
| IND | 87 | 50.1 | 28.0 | 54% | 32% | 0 | JAX | 101 | 50% | 38% | 3% | |
| JAX | 60 | 21.5 | 33.7 | 36% | 55% | 0 | IND | 119 | 41% | 50% | 3% | |
| KC | 70 | 36.0 | 28.8 | 54% | 38% | 0 | HST | 92 | 32% | 56% | 3% | |
| LV | 118 | 61.3 | 43.4 | 52% | 37% | 0 | DEN | 93 | 32% | 58% | 1% | |
| LA | 85 | 51.4 | 29.1 | 61% | 33% | 0 | ARZ | 72 | 26% | 68% | 3% | |
| LAC | 87 | 44.3 | 34.1 | 55% | 37% | 0 | PHI | 98 | 49% | 41% | 1% | |
| MIA | 84 | 45.7 | 31.6 | 57% | 36% | 0 | NYJ | 93 | 58% | 34% | 5% | |
| MIN | 112 | 63.1 | 41.9 | 58% | 37% | 0 | WAS | 90 | 40% | 50% | 8% | |
| NE | 75 | 45.2 | 26.6 | 57% | 38% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NO | 137 | 73.2 | 54.4 | 53% | 42% | 0 | TB | 89 | 44% | 51% | 0% | |
| NYG | 159 | 68.2 | 73.5 | 45% | 46% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NYJ | 110 | 59.0 | 40.9 | 51% | 41% | 0 | MIA | 137 | 49% | 44% | 2% | |
| PHI | 105 | 69.0 | 32.5 | 58% | 37% | 0 | LAC | 93 | 43% | 40% | 6% | |
| PIT | 103 | 55.3 | 40.7 | 53% | 38% | 0 | BLT | 114 | 61% | 30% | 2% | |
| SEA | 71 | 28.7 | 37.3 | 43% | 51% | 0 | ATL | 105 | 76% | 18% | 2% | |
| SF | 91 | 36.9 | 39.8 | 37% | 49% | 0 | BYE | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| TB | 91 | 41.2 | 45.7 | 44% | 48% | 0 | NO | 53 | 67% | 24% | 6% | |
| TEN | 95 | 42.6 | 35.4 | 42% | 42% | 0 | CLV | 74 | 45% | 48% | 3% | |
| WAS | 129 | 58.0 | 60.2 | 44% | 48% | 0 | MIN | 81 | 49% | 45% | 1% | |
| NFL | 99 | 49.8 | 41.0 | 50% | 41% | 0 | NFL | 98 | 51% | 41% | 3% |
