Fantasy Football Advice

Archive for July, 2009

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Value Based Drafting

July 31, 2009 By: Cheese Category: 2009 Fantasy Football Draft 10 Comments →

Hello, Razzballers!  So, it’s almost draft day, and you’re drafting 10th overall.  You’ve spent the last 3 weeks debating who you want to take, and you’ve finally made up your mind to take Drew Brees, the number 1 fantasy QB in the game today.  You feel great about your pick, because he will most likely finish the season atop the list in fantasy points, and you got that at 10th overall!  What a steal!

WRONG.

This is where value based drafting comes into play.  Let’s talk strategy!  What is value based drafting?  Well, it’s quite simple actually.  Rather than drafting the best name on the board, you draft what positional player will give you the best value at that point in your draft.  That’s all.  Thanks for reading, and enjoy winning your league with that simple advice.  Take care!

Okay.  Obviously I’m not going to leave you Razzers hanging with many questions unanswered.  So, let’s cut to it.  How do you determine what position will provide the best value?

First.  Rank your players by position.  Not just your top 10, but enough that you think will get drafted.  “But I don’t know anything about football, this is my first season!”  Oh, of course it is!  Well, Razzball has put the best projections together for you, so let’s just use those.

Second.  Use your leagues settings to calculate how many fantasy points each player will put up based on your projections.  “But I don’t know anything about football, this is my first season!”  I get it… but thanks to Razzball, along with their rankings, are projections!  Let’s use those as well!

Third.  Determine how many players at each position will be drafted to fill up a starting line up in your league.  The Razzball Commenter Leagues use 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, and 1 RB/WR.  (We’ll ignore DEF and K because frankly, I hope none of you are drafting DEF or K until the late rounds.  I’m talking very late.  Like last 2 rounds late.)  Therefore, 12 QBs must be drafted, 12 TE, 30RB and 30WR (let’s assume that half of the WR/RB positions are split equally).

Fourth.  Now that all projections have been calculated, let’s determine the value of each player at each position.  To do this, what you have to calculate is the percentage of points each ranked player is above the last ranked player.  For example, for QBs, you calculate by percentage, how much bigger QBs ranked #1-11 are than QB ranked #12.  For RB, you do the same, except with RBs ranked #1-29 over RB ranked #30.

Sure, this is definitely time consuming to enter the players, their projections, and their values, so, to make life easy here at Razzball, I have done all that for you!  Let’s take a look at how things shape up (involving all positions).  Let’s check out how the first round would shape up using value based drafting…

RANK PLAYER POS VBD
1 Peterson, Adrian RB 121.30%
2 Jones-Drew, Maurice RB 115.52%
3 Turner, Michael RB 99.28%
4 Jackson, Steven RB 98.92%
5 Forte, Matt RB 94.95%
6 Johnson, Chris RB 90.25%
7 Tomlinson, LaDanian RB 87.51%
8 Moss, Randy WR 80.31%
9 Johnson, Andre WR 70.87%
10 Williams, DeAngelo RB 68.23%
11 Slaton, Steve RB 64.98%
12 Fitzgerald, Larry WR 62.99%

So, going back to what was mentioned earlier about drafting 10th, is it really worth it to be drafting Drew Brees, despite him being the best quarterback?  Probably not.  DeAngelo Williams will provide more value for you.  So by drafting Drew Brees early, you’re giving up better value, or, better put, you are giving better value to your opponents.  This makes it much more difficult for you to catch up when you’re scrambling later on to fill in your starting lineup.  “But, maybe Brees was ranked 13th, which makes taking him 10th overall not such a bad idea.”  Okay, let’s look at the next round.

13 Johnson, Calvin WR 59.06%
14 Brown, Ronnie RB 58.84%
15 Gore, Frank RB 58.12%
16 Gates, Antonio TE 55.06%
17 Witten, Jason TE 50.00%
18 White, Roddy WR 49.61%
19 Westbrook, Brian RB 45.85%
20 Jennings, Greg WR 44.88%
21 Wayne, Reggie WR 41.73%
22 Portis, Clinton RB 41.52%
23 Colston, Marques WR 40.94%
24 Jacobs, Brandon RB 36.46%

Hmmm… no Drew Brees.  But there are a couple of tight ends in there!  Does that make drafting Antonio Gates in the second round okay?  Probably not.  But this does show you that drafting him in the fourth or fifth round provides great value for where you get him.  Let’s look at the third round.

25 Daniels, Owen TE 35.96%
26 Olsen, Greg TE 35.96%
27 Barber, Marion RB 35.74%
28 Smith, Kevin RB 33.57%
29 Brees, Drew QB 33.33%
30 Smith, Steve WR 33.07%
31 Grant, Ryan RB 32.49%
32 Brady, Tom QB 30.63%
33 Clark, Dallas TE 30.34%
34 Gonzalez, Tony TE 29.21%
35 Winslow, Kellen TE 26.40%
36 Boldin, Anquan WR 25.20%

Ahh, Drew Brees.  Finally.  By taking him 10th overall, you would be giving up 19 spots of better value.  Is that something you really want to do?  I’m guessing no.

So, to sum things up, should you be using value based drafting as a guide on draft day?  No, definitely not.  Use ADP as your guide.  BUT, use value based drafting to help you determine the value of the player you are about to draft.  Use your knowledge of draft trends to find value.  So, let’s say in this example I am debating to draft a QB or a WR.  According to ADP and my previous knowledge, I am expecting 2 QBs and 6 WRs to be drafted before my next pick.  Let’s assume that the drop off in the next 2 QBs is only 5%, while the 6 WR drop off is 15%.  It makes much more sense to draft the WR because otherwise you will be losing a lot more value.

As the key to building your starting line up with the most overall value, there are times (usually around the 3rd round on) where you will take a lesser overall value player because the expected drop off in value to your next pick is so great at another position.  Anyways, I hope this wasn’t too much information, and if you have any questions, feel free to ask!

P.S. Since we at razzball love our readers so much, we have provided you all with a free downloadable value based drafting kit.  It’s a basic kit, and nothing too extreme.  They have razzball’s player rankings, but no projections!  Oh no!  However, the percentages given in the kit are based on razzballs projections.  But, those projections will be revealed slowly, so you’ll have to keep coming back to get the latest player news, projections and more!

2009 Bears Fantasy Preview

July 30, 2009 By: Doc Category: 2009 Fantasy Football Team Preview 8 Comments →

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy football questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).  The 2009 Bears  Fantasy Football Preview comes courtesy of Windy City Gridiron.

1. No matter what anyone says about Jay Cutler’s character, he is a steep upgrade over Kyle Orton.   What kind of difference will he make?  Will the line hold up for him?  Will the receivers get open?  How does it feel to finally have an elite QB in Chicago?

The only question is how can he not help.  There is no argument that Cutler is three times the QB that Orton was. Orton played well minus a few games after an injury.  His receivers were either raw or too old to be good anymore.   We’ve shed the vets.  Hester has another full camp under his belt.  Bennett and Know are tearing up OTAs.  Greg Olsen is a stud and him and Cutler should hook up often this year.  Orton had a horrible line.  Cutler has a line that is now experienced and has a good deal of depth.

If Pace makes it this season, this line is solid.  We are good with good depth everywhere except left.  If we have to replace Pace, we go back to Chris Williams and I’m not sure he is ready for that.

Cutler has everything that Orton did not.  Arm strength, accuracy and mobility.  Those three things in our system are key.  With a deep threat like Hester.  Getting the ball to him in stride or in open space in a timely manner are key.  Hester toward the end of last year had 3 steps on almost every CB he played, but Orton could never get the ball to him.To answer you last question, I’ll say I got goose bumps just reading it.  It is something that as a life long Bears fan is almost hard for me to know how to react or what to expect.

2. Devin Hester showed that he can play wide receiver last year, but can he break out as an elite receiver with Cutler throwing to him?  What kind of numbers are you projecting for him?

I don’t know if he can be elite, but there is no way his numbers are not drastically improved.  If Orton had hit him every time he had a step on the CB, he would have 300 more yards and at least 5 more TDs last year.  I think a 1000 yard season with double digit TDs are very possible.  I’m not sure he breaks 100 receptions, since the Bears rely heavily on their TEs and RBs as receivers as well.

3. There is a lot of speculation about the Bears going out to get a receiver to compliment Hester and Olsen.   Out of all the possibilities out there (Boldin, Marshall, Burress, etc . . .) who would you love to see them get and what do you expect Angelo will end up doing?

Of the three you mentioned Boldin is the pick.  The Bears have not tolerated off the field issue in the past and it would be hypocritical for them to bring in Marshall or Burress.  They have shown no ability to make good decisions thus far, what makes anybody think they will change?  The option that I am excited about is if AZ signs Boldin, they cannot afford Steve Breaston when he becomes a UFA next season.  We now have a QB that make us a destination for a player like that.  I’d like to see the Bears make a heavy run at him.  I think Angelo holds.  He needs to see what he has.

4. Matt Forte exceeded all expectations last year.  Between carries and receptions he ended up with 379 touches.  Do you see a similar workload this year?  Do you see Kevin Jones getting more carries than last year?

There is no way Forte gets near 400 again.  Cutler being there already means they will throw more.  Also Cutler protects Forte from 8 man fronts.  He should get beat on less by the front line of the other team.  He should see significantly more time in the secondary this year.  Kevin Jones is now 2 years removed from his surgery. Anybody who expected a ton from him last year was fooling themselves.  This is his year.  When he is healthy, he can be a feature back.

5. How much stock do you put into the rave reviews you hear coming from OTA’s?  I’d like to some day hear somebody say, “well, so and so is pretty slow and he constantly eats Cheetos in the huddle.” What are you hearing that gets you excited and do you feel that it is legit?

The way I see it, somebody raving about somebody is good from the stand point that they aren’t saying bad things about him.  So, do I expect Johnny Know to destroy the league?  No.  But hearing what they have to say about him, suggests that he is picking up the system and has good chemistry with Cutler and could do some things for us.  As long as bad things don’t come out, I’m content whatever they say.

Most of the excitement over Know is from the standpoint of him replacing Davis.

To illustrate my point, we’ve heard nothing about Iglesias.  Then the other day, a paper suggest that Know could see more playing time than Iglesias.  That has to worry you a little bit.   It doesn’t mean with training camp, he won’t be ready, but you have to wonder about that.

2009 Vikings Fantasy Preview

July 29, 2009 By: Doc Category: 2009 Fantasy Football Team Preview No Comments →

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy football questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).  The 2009 Vikings Fantasy Football Preview comes courtesy of Daily Norseman.

1. It now “seems” that Favre won’t be playing for the Vikings this year.  How do you think  Favreageddon has impacted the Vikings?  And are you relieved, angry, disappointed, or all of the above?

I would like to think that it hasn’t impacted them that much.  Right around draft time this year, Viking fans were anticipating an open competition for the starting QB job between Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson.  Rosenfels and Jackson have gone through all the camps anticipating as much, I presume, because Favre wasn’t there.  Now he’s not going to be there, but I don’t think things have changed that much for T-Jack and the Spicerack.  (Pretty catchy, eh?)  But the Vikings have a solid veteran core, and I don’t think they’re going to allow this to allow this to affect the team in any meaningful way.

As far as my personal reaction, the only thing that really miffs me is that the mainstream media. . .as well as our site. . .made this THE story of the Vikings’ off-season.  We spent so much time covering this that there were a lot of other aspects of the Vikings that went ignored this off-season.  Both the national media and our site (on a smaller scale, obviously) did a disservice to the fans of the Vikings by allowing this story to absorb so much of our thought process.

2. Adrian Peterson is a beast and number one on every fantasy top ten I’ve seen.  Barring injury what could possibly hold him back from another huge season? Do you foresee any change in Chester Taylor’s 3rd down status?

Outside of injury, the only thing that can stop Adrian Peterson is Adrian Peterson.  More specifically, his ability to hold on to the football.  Peterson did fumble the ball 9 times in 2008, and some folks are under the impression that that signals some sort of “fumbilitis” that’s going to haunt him forever and ruin his career.  While fumbles are potentially devestating, obviously, they’re not necessarily a killer.  A prime example of that is a guy that Peterson has been compared favorably too, former Ram/Colt/Raider/Falcon running back Eric Dickerson.  The year Dickerson set the single-season rushing mark, he put the ball on the ground fourteen times.  Heck, in the first four years of his career, Dickerson averaged over 12 fumbles a season.  He also averaged about 1750 yards and 14 TDs a year during that time.  Peterson only had four fumbles as a rookie, so I think that calling him “butterfingers” or anything like that is premature at best.

As much as we’d like to see Peterson out there on the field for more third downs, Chester Taylor has established himself as one of the league’s better third down backs, and I would be surprised if he didn’t retain that role this season.  Taylor is a good change of pace runner and a great pass catcher when called upon, and utilizing him also gives Brad Childress the ability to keep Peterson fresher through the course of a game.  The Peterson/Taylor tandem is right up there with the best 1-2 running back punches in the NFL, and will continue to be in 2009.

3. The wide receiver situation hasn’t been great in Minnesota for a while now.  Percy Harvin is getting some praise early on.  Who do you see starting behind Berrian?

Ideally, if he can stay healthy and start learning how to run decent routes, Sidney Rice would line up across from Berrian with Harvin in some sort of slot/wild card role and Bobby Wade slipping in as the #4 guy from time to time.  I pimped Sidney Rice last year to pretty much anybody that would listen, and he repaid me by going out, getting hurt, and generally being awful.  However, he’s got a ton of physical ability, outstanding hands, and great body control.  He’s got all the tools to be a very good NFL wide receiver. . .he simply needs to show the desire to ascend to that level.  If he doesn’t, the Vikings should put a moratorium on receivers from South Carolina for the next couple of decades (see also: Williamson, Troy).

4. You’ve taken a detailed look at the Vikings schedule on your blog.  What does it look like?  Do you see a high scoring season fulfilling all our fake football dreams or will it be a grind it out kind of schedule?

Honestly, and this is going to make me sound like a complete homer, but I think this team would have to try very hard to not win at least ten games in 2009.  The first five weeks of the schedule are relatively soft. . .which is good, considering that that’s when we might lose Pat and Kevin Williams. . .followed up by what should be a couple of bloodbaths against Baltimore and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.  The stretch run of the Vikings’ schedule is a bit tricky in spots, too, but I really think that the Vikings should win anywhere between ten and twelve games in 2009 and be celebrating their second straight NFC North division title.

5. Who do you feel will win the starting quarterback job?   Who do you hope wins the job?

I honestly don’t know who will win the starting QB job.  Well, I do know it won’t be John David Booty, anyway.  But it’s interesting. . .the Vikings traded away a fourth-round pick for Rosenfels and gave him a three-year contract worth about $9 million, and you generally don’t do that for somebody that’s going to sit on the bench.  On the other hand, Jackson did look like he had improved at the end of last season, and he might be able to carry that momentum forward into 2009.

If you put a gun to my head right now, I’d probably pick Rosenfels to get the first snap of the year.  Of course, if you asked me tomorrow, you might get a different answer.  I can tell you one thing, though. . .we know what the most intriguing story line in Vikings’ camp this year will be.

6. The NFC North has quickly become a quarterback’s heaven with Cutler going to the Bears, Rodgers playing well for the Packers and Stafford going to the Lions.  Do you see the Norris Division turning into the AFC West?

I’m sure that quarterback will be a primary concern of the Vikings over the next couple of seasons, as it should be.  Sage Rosenfels has never been a starter on a regular basis, and Tarvaris Jackson is still a pretty unproven commodity.  Having said that, though, people need to be reminded sometimes that the 2008 Vikings won ten games and the NFC North with a combination of “bad” Tarvaris Jackson (his first two starts of the year), Gus Frerotte, and “good’ Tarvaris Jackson (his play from the time he relieved Frerotte in Detroit to the end of the regular season).  Yes, the Vikings might be deficient at quarterback compared to their other divisional counterparts. . .but they have the best running back in the NFL and arguably the best defense in the NFC, neither of which is something any other team in the NFC North can lay claim to.

7. Of course there is now some speculation of Michael Vick going to Minnesota.  Would you be for or against this?

Holy good lord, no, we don’t need Michael Vick anywhere near Minnesota.  We have enough talent at running back the way it is.

I’ve always been of the opinion that Michael Vick has never, ever been a good NFL quarterback, and him spending two seasons playing in the Virginia Penal League hasn’t done anything to sway me in that regard.  I’d much rather go into battle in 2009 with what we have than risk bringing in a circus like Vick.  And that doesn’t even begin to get into the character issue, but in the interest if brevity, I won’t get into that part of things.

Brett and Michael’s Charm School

July 27, 2009 By: Doc Category: Fantasy Football Daily Notes 6 Comments →

Michael Vick: He could be reinstated by the 6th week of the season or even earlier if he plays nice with others.  There is no doubt the guy is an amazing athlete, but there is little chance that Vick will become a fantasy asset this season if he signs with a NFL team at all. (Insert humorous dog fighting/strip club/Ron Mexico joke here.)

Brett Favre: He is still unsure about attending his unretirement party. While “deciding” he made a “funny” commercial about choosing between some poorly crafted consumer items.  So this guy is making money on his lack of decision making skills?  I should be rolling in cash every time I’m in the cereal isle.  In other news ESPN has unleashed the Brett and Michael’s QB Media Monster and I doubt I’ll be charmed.

LaMont Jordan: His agent is saying Jordan is in the best shape of his life.  I just don’t understand why an agent would talk his client up?  Any guesses?  Well, it’s a mystery, just like the Bronco backfield.  Moreno should end up being the starter, but don’t be too surprised if Jordan gets some goalline carries especially early on and Buckhalter could easily get 3rd down work.  And if Moreno holds out for an extended period of time he’ll have to play catch up which will hurt his value even more.

Derrick Ward: Word out of Tampa is that Ward and Earnest Graham may split carries.  This is starting to look like a situation to run far away from for now.  If one of them becomes the clear starter we can return to this conversation.

Derrick Mason: This is old news, but it’s looking more and more likely that Mason wasn’t blowing smoke when he announced his retirement.  In other news Drew Bennett signs with the Ravens. Wait, this just in, Bennett has retired!  Joe Flacco may be on the verge of retirement as well.

Peanut Tillman: He had arthroscopic surgery on his back to have a disc scraped on and George Washington Carver rose from the dead to see what he could invent.

RCL: The Razzball Commenter Leagues are up and running and Razzball readers are gathering into small tribes to test their knowledge of football against each other. There can only be one!!! It could be you!

Top 10 List: Due to a tweaking of our position value percentages we have taken Brees and Brady out of the 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings, Top 10.  These growing pains won’t keep us from talking about how badass we are though.

Top 10 Quarterbacks for 2009 Fantasy Football

July 27, 2009 By: Doc Category: 2009 Fantasy Football Draft 9 Comments →

1. Drew Brees: Interesting fact about Drew Brees, he was a member of the Sigma Chi fraternity.  Now, if that is a frat that brews warm tea and milk drinks I am there!  This guy almost threw for 2.9 miles last season!  And that was without Colston and Bush for part of the year.  I could play right guard and Hank could play slot and Brees would still throw for 4,000 yds.

Brees’ average draft position is 15 right now.  Can you wait until the second round?  Do you want Matt Forte more than Brandon Jacobs?  Will Rivers or Rodgers give you comparable numbers in the 3rd or early 4th round?  Maybe, possibly, and could be, but will Brees give you top 5 overall fantasy numbers?  I think so. ADP: 15 Projection: 4650/36/14

2. Tom Brady: September 7th 2008, you just sank down into your barcalounger, NFL Sunday Ticket is reflecting off your fine premium pilsner, and your fantasy QB, who threw 50 TD’s just the season before is playing against the hapless Kansas City Chiefs.  What could go wrong?

Well, you know what could and did go wrong.  Tom Brady knocked up his girlfriend and then dumped her for Giselle and then Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard tore Brady’s ACL, MCL, and if we would have had Razzball Commenter Leagues back then, whoever owned him in the RCL.

Will he return to his 2007 form?  It isn’t like he’s the most nimble QB in the league so he doesn’t need to run.  The guy can’t even navigate a kayak.  He hardly gets sacked and he has Moss, Welker and now Galloway.  And who is going to take away yards on the ground?  No one, that’s who.  It really is a toss up on who should be the #1 QB in fantasy drafts this year.  If you get stuck with Brady, I think you’ll be able to enjoy that beer this September.  ADP: 19 Projection: 4550/35/13

3. Peyton Manning: The new coach of the Indianapolis Colts should have yet another Hall of Fame season.  What? He’s not the new coach?  I must be out of the loop.  Anyway, Manning had a “down” year last year due to his knee getting all gross and infected, but with a little Bactine he got back to his old self and had a masterful second half.  Now with Harrison out of the picture he has the great trio of Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark to throw to and he will get his numbers back into elite territory.  ADP 27  Projection: 4300/32/9

4. Philip Rivers: Rivers was a perfect QB last season.  Very few interceptions, tied for the league lead in passing TD’s, led the league in yards per pass while still being near the top in completion percentage, and somehow still looked red-faced and irritable through it all.  He is an elite QB and should stay that way.  I see no reason to really reach for the top 3 QB’s if you can grab Rivers near the end of the 4th or beginning of the 5th round. ADP 46  Projection: 4150/34/13

5. Aaron Rodgers: Life in the shadow of Brett Favre must have been full of miracle grow and Moo-Nure because Rodgers sprouted and flourished and probably smelled a little after games.  He finished last year only behind Brees in fantasy points.  This can be attributed to his 4 TD’s on the ground.  I don’t think you can bank on those kinds of rushing numbers, but Greg Jennings and Donald Driver will continue their excellent play and Rodgers will only improve.  ADP 37  Projection: 4000/29/13 – 2/125

6. Donovan McNabb: How this guy continues to do well with his weak receivers is a mystery to me.  He has Westbrook who will be injured off and on, but should play enough to still be his safety valve most of the season and DeSean Jackson will continue to improve in the wide open offense.  If you draft McNabb you have to know he might have those disastrous games that will get him benched, like last year against the Ravens, but he’ll also come back and throw four TD’s, like he did against the Cardinals the next week. ADP 61  Projection: 3750/25/12 – 1/125

7. Tony Romo: One of the most loved and most hated players since Billy Joe Tolliver, Romo has been on TMZ more than the Wheaties box (do they still do that?).  This is his year to prove himself.  With no TO or Jessica, he should be able to focus on winning games.  He has his BFF Witten, a good receiver in Roy (I play offense) Williams, a deep threat in Miles Austin and good running backs, with good hands.  A great season in Big D isn’t a lock, but Romo has the skill and the team to shut up his detractors. ADP 60  Projection: 4000/26/14 – 1/50

8. Kurt Warner: The former bag boy for Jesus is still kickin’ and fumblin’ and chuckin’ interceptions, but he’s also racking up yardage and TD’s and has arguably the best wide receiver corp in the NFL.  There is always a chance Warner’s hip will snap in a bath tub tumble, but if you’re willing to risk that, he can give you top 5 numbers.  ADP 50, 4000/30/15

9. Matt Schaub: I think I had my whole stock portfolio with this guy when the bubble burst.  But I’m willing to give him another chance.  With arguably the best receiver in the game and a top 10 RB who can catch passes out of the backfield Schaub has the tools to do well.  But often his tools get all worn and cracked and he can’t use them; tools like his knees and shoulder and other various parts he needs to play football.  So Schaub carries a bit of risk, but a lot of reward. ADP 75  Projection: 3550/26/12

10. Matt Ryan: Ryan was lucky to have Michael Turner crashing into lineman and linebackers and taking the heat off.  Of course Ryan was no slouch and showed a poise most rookie quarterbacks or even veteran quarterbacks don’t usually have.  It is hard to project much of a regression in his sophomore season with Tony Gonzalez coming in to block and catch.  He’s about as solid as any second year QB you’ll ever see. ADP 70  Projection: 3350/23/11/ – 1/175

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