Fantasy Football Advice

Throughout the 2012 offseason, we will be taking a look at each NFL team from a keeper/dynasty perspective. Keeper leagues are very unique, with widely varying formats, but the following are observations based on reasonable draft positions in 2011. Further discussion of different keeper/dynasty decisions and trades is welcome in the comments below. We start by taking a look at the Offseason Odyssey of the Denver Broncos…

Finish: 8-8 (1^st AFC West)

2012 Draft Order: 25^th overall pick

2011 Leaders: QB- Tim Tebow- 1729 pass yds,  12/6 td/int, 660 rush yds, 6 td RB- Willis McGahee- 1199 rush yds, 4 td WR- Eric Decker-44 rec,  612 rec yds, 8td TE- Daniel Fells- 19 rec, 256 rec yds, 3 td

On the Fence? KEEP him: Tim Tebow- All cheap jokes aside, Tebow will be a usable fantasy quarterback in 2012, no matter how many lame jokes your buddies make when you draft him. Timmy’s value is in his legs and the fact that he loves mowing over defenders in order to pick up extra yardage. Second to only Killa Cam in QB rushing yards (in fewer games, no less), Tebow can keep chucking ducks all over the field and he will still keep fantasy teams from floundering. Assuming Elway can hide his disgust this offseason and help the throwing mechanics of the young quarterback, a top 10 fantasy quarterback performance could easily happen in Denver…the sunshine state. Gorgeous!

On the Fence? CUT him: Eric Decker- Decker salvaged some decent point totals in 2011 due to catching 8 touchdowns, but don’t get suckered into keeping Decker on your squad. A quick peek at the Denver passing game in 2011 shows a drastic fall in Decker’s production as Demaryius Thomas grabbed a larger share of Tebow’s attention. Remember week 8? October 30^th? While you were busy working on your Snooki Halloween costume, Decker was registering his very last game of the 2011 season with more than 3 catches. Thomas is the Bronco receiver to own, so cut Decker loose.

Dynasty Vault: Demaryius Thomas- As Thomas became Tim Tebow’s favorite target over the latter stages of the 2011 season, dynasty owners finally got to see what they had in the monster wide out. The results were nice, very nice. Thomas was huge down the stretch, averaging 106.4 yards per game over his last seven contests (including the playoffs). Tebow loves himself some Demaryius, and whether Thomas is catching darts or ducks, they all count for fantasy points. Plus, the guy is a moose and has wheels as well…just ask Ike Taylor.

Dynasty Dump: Knowshon Moreno- The 12^th overall pick in the 2009 draft was showing promise in Denver’s backfield, as he eclipsed 1,000 total yards in each of his first two seasons. Then 2011 rolled in, along with John Fox and Willis McGahee. You said, “Fox likes to run the ball…McGahee is ancient…Moreno is dynasty gold!” Amigo, you only hit the first two horses in that trifecta. That pays zilch. Moreno is still young, but appears to be nothing more than a 3^rd down back under Fox’s watch.

Dynasty Target: Tim Tebow- Few players polarize football fans as much as Tebow, and this is probably the case in your fantasy league. There is a good chance that the owner of Tebow in your league already has a #15 Denver Broncos jersey and sleeps with a Tebow Fathead poster on their ceiling. However, there is also a chance that the owner of Tebow doesn’t buy into the media circus around the Denver quarterback and isn’t sold on the talent of the scrambling QB (wait, do you play in a league with John Elway?). Either way, it’s worth checking into, as Tebow will be a fantasy factor whether he can throw a spiral or not.

Offseason Interest: Running back- It will be tough to find news out of Denver this offseason that doesn’t deal with their quarterback, but keep an eye on the Bronco backfield. Knowshon Moreno will spend his offseason rehabbing a torn ACL, and 2011 surprise Willis McGahee waived goodbye to his 20’s last October. With Willis aging and the John Fox regime not sold on Moreno as more than a third down back, another running back may enter the fold in 2012. Watch out for the Broncos in free agency and in the NFL draft, as the lead back in this offense will be very valuable in the 2012 fantasy season.

Good day Razzballers! Only three games left until the long cold off season. Don’t cry Doc. Don’t you do it! Ok, let’s do this thing. I like both these matchups quite a bit and even though I’ve been wrong on my predictions this postseason each game has gone about as I expected. The only one that really was just a huge surprise was the Denver/Pittsburgh game. Even though I picked against the 49ers and Giants I wasn’t surprised that they won. And now they face each other in what looks to be the closest matchup of the day. The weather at Candlestick looks like it will be rainy and windy which at first I thought would benefit the 49ers hard hitting style but I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of the Giants defense and they don’t have to rely on the pass so if the wind is a huge factor they aren’t dead in the water.

Both teams defensive lines can put pressure on the quarterback so that is somewhat of a wash. The Giants passing game is the big advantage here and that’s where I do think the rain and wind could hurt them a little. They should still be able to throw the ball but it will make each passing play just a little more risky and when you couple that with the way the Niners attack the ball, turnovers are bound to happen.

To me the two running games are a bit of a wash as well. Frank Gore can’t seem to run two consecutive plays so even though he is the best back on the field he is somewhat limited. The biggest factor will be how well the Niners can stop Nicks and Cruz and with the rain and wind giving them an extra hand I think they’ll be able to stop them enough while getting a few turnovers to come out on top in this one.

49ers 20 – Giants 17

The early game pits the Ravens versus the Patriots. The weather in Foxboro looks to be clear and calm, perfect for the passing game. We just saw the Pats dismantle the Broncos in what could barely be called a tune up while the Ravens struggled against the Yates led Texans. The Patriots pass defense is still craptastic and weren’t tested by Tim Tebow at all. I can say one thing for Joe Flacco, he isn’t as bad as Tebow.  Flacco has a cannon for an arm but has trouble consistently making the right decisions and against the Patriots he will need to get his team into the end zone more often than not.

The Ravens defense is still elite and will give Brady fits but trying to stop him completely is futile. Flacco will have to elevate his game which I have trouble believing will happen enough to win. But I also didn’t think Alex Smith could do what he did.

New England 34 – Baltimore 20

Carl sings.

So what I did here was extrapolate how many fantasy points running backs would have if they started all 16 games. You can see that I did a similar disservice in the previous post with quarterbacks. The asterisks are for players who didn’t have 8 full starts so their numbers are iffier than the others. This table will make you feel crappy if you had Darren McFadden and Fred Jackson so go watch Home Movies instead. You should have it on DVD if you are cool.

Arian Foster would have been the #1 running back if it weren’t for his hamstring and he’s my number one running back going into next season. There will be a ton of debate on where to take Darren McFadden next season and I’m sure he’ll go too high for his risk but I’m sold on his talent so I’ll take his fragileness early.  Of course Michael Bush is too good to sit on the bench and who knows what will be up with him this off season.  Hopefully he’ll go to the Bengals because it is time for Cedric Benson to hit the proverbial and literal bricks.  The Toby Gerhart/Adrian Peterson and Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller conundrums will be a couple to keep your eye on as well.

So take a look at this and tell me what you think. Or not. It’s a free friggin internet people!

So what I did here was extrapolate how many fantasy points quarterbacks would have if they started all 16 games. To make this list you either have to have played 8+ games or have been drafted in fantasy leagues in the top 24 QBs which really is only Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. So unfortunately I didn’t add Matt Flynn but if I had he would have averaged 44 fantasy points a game for a hefty total of 704 fantasy points! He also would have had over 8,000 yards and 90 touchdowns which may have broken a record or two. It’s blatantly obvious that he should have played against the Giants in the playoffs!

So that 49ers/Saints bout was amazing! I haven’t seen a game that good in a opossums’ age. I was wrong on the outcome but I was right that it would be a good one. The Niners brought the hard hitting and the Saints brought the high flying but in the end it was Alex Smith and Vernon Davis that made the difference. I didn’t think Smith had it in him but he certainly did yesterday.

The Patriots/Broncos game went about as I thought but the Patriots defense came to play and completely shut down Tim Tebow even more than I expected they would. And of course Tom Brady went all Y.A. Tittle with 6 touchdown passes, 5 in the first half and 3 of those to Rob Gronkowski. Belichick and Brady were tired of Tebowmania and just tore the bandwagon apart, set it on fire and then pissed on the ashes.

The first game brings Flacco vs. Yates which isn’t exactly a matchup of monumental proportions, but these two defenses are in the top of the rankings and we should see some hard hitting football. The Ravens are set up to win this one at home but I do think it will be a close one. In the end this will most likely come down to which quarterback can make the most plays because the running games and defenses are close to a wash. I’m going to take the Ravens at home with Flacco’s experience trumping Yates.

Ravens 17 – Texans 16

The main event pits the Giants vs the Packers. These two met earlier this season in what was a close fought game with the Packers edging them out. This should be a high scoring affair and the Giants are playing very well right now. It wouldn’t be a total shock if they pull this one out up in Lambeau but I don’t see any real reason the odds shouldn’t be in the Packers favor at home. Aaron Rodgers is much more consistent than Eli Manning and if I’m betting on one or the other it will always be Rodgers. That’s not to say that Eli isn’t able to beat Rodgers but I’m not going to put my hard earned nickel on it. When you look at the talent at the skill positions it’s close to a wash. Lambeau and Rodgers tip the scales for me in this one.

Packers 37 – Giants 27

Carl of course is a die hard Giants fan and is not a fan of the “belt move.” I can’t say I disagree.

Good morning Razzballers. It looks like we are in line for some decent games today. Well, one for sure and Tebow.

First up the Saints travel to San Francisco which is truly a clash of styles. Drew Brees throws until the Mayans tell him to quit and the Niners are conservative and defensive minded because they have to be and because it has worked. If this game were in New Orleans it would be a no brainer call for me but it isn’t and I ain’t. The 49ers are good at home having lost 2 of their 3 games away and their only loss at home was a crazy game against the Cowboys in week 2. And the Saints aren’t so good on the road having lost all 3 of their games away and two of those to the Rams and the Buccaneers. Of course they haven’t lost since week 8 and Brees has been going bat crap crazy so it’s not like they are limping into the playoffs. I think this game could be great but I’m going to lean with Brees in this one because he is just too good.

Saints 23 – 49ers 20

The late game pits the Broncos against the Patriots which we’ve already seen once. Of course last week I thought the Steelers would wipe their behinds with the Broncos but that wasn’t the case. If the Steelers were at home and weren’t without Clark, Hampton and Keisel I do think it would have been a different story but it wasn’t and it isn’t. With this game being played in Foxboro and the Patriots already having faced the Tebow I just don’t see how the Broncos can pull this one out.  The Patriots defense is suspect at best but the Broncos are going to need to score 40 to win this one and Tebow only has so much he can give. I could be wrong of course and a lot depends on if we get the Tim Tebow that was absolutely pathetic against the Bills and Chiefs or the one that beat the Steelers. The thing that gives me little hope for the Broncos is that Tebow was actually good against the Patriots and they still got pummeled by 18 points at Mile High.

Patriots 37 – Broncos 17

Here are my rankings for this week. Nothing too crazy. Lot’s of good QBs to choose from of course. Tebow against New England is a nice matchup and he’s all the way at 5th. You just can’t go wrong with the Packers passing game of course. Running backs are always tough to choose in the playoffs for some reason but we’ve got some studs that are studly. Oh and the 2 best tight ends in the game are playing this weekend.

Quarterback

1.     Aaron Rodgers – GB vs NYG
2.     Tom Brady – NE vs DEN
3.     Drew Brees – NO at SF
4.     Eli Manning – NYG at GB
5.     Tim Tebow – DEN at NE
6.     Alex Smith – SF vs NO
7.     Joe Flacco – BAL vs HOU
8.     T.J. Yates – HOU at BAL

Running Back

1.     Ray Rice – BAL vs HOU
2.     Arian Foster – HOU at BAL
3.     Frank Gore – SF vs NO
4.     Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG at GB
5.     Willis McGahee – DEN at NE
6.     Darren Sproles – NO at SF
7.     Ryan Grant – GB vs NYG
8.     Stevan Ridley – NE vs DEN
9.     Pierre Thomas – NO at SF
10.     James Starks – GB vs NYG
11.     Brandon Jacobs – NYG at GB
12.     BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NE vs DEN
13.     Ricky Williams – BAL vs HOU
14.     Kendall Hunter – SF vs NO
15.     Ben Tate – HOU at BAL
16.     Chris Ivory – NO at SF
17.     Danny Woodhead – NE vs DEN
18.     Lance Ball – DEN at NE
19.     Jeremiah Johnson – DEN at NE
20.     John Kuhn – GB vs NYG
21.     Danny Ware – NYG at GB

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