Fantasy Football Advice

Throughout the 2012 offseason, we will be taking a look at each NFL team from a keeper/dynasty perspective. Keeper leagues are very unique, with widely varying formats, but the following are observations based on reasonable draft positions in 2011. Further discussion of different keeper/dynasty decisions and trades is welcome in the comments below. We start by taking a look at the Offseason Odyssey of the Arizona Cardinals…

Finish: 8-8 (2^nd NFC West)

2012 Draft Order: 13^th Overall Pick

2011 Leaders: QB- Kevin Kolb- 1955 pass yds,  9/8 td/int RB- Beanie Wells- 1047 rush yds, 10 td WR- Larry Fitzgerald- 80 rec,  1411 rec yds, 8 td TE- Jeff King- 27 rec, 271 rec yds, 3 td

On the Fence? KEEP him: Beanie Wells- Personally, I tended to undervalue Wells a bit during the course of the 2011 season. Non-existent receiving skills (27 career catches) and a brittle reputation made me avoid Beanie like the mangy cat that lives under my porch. Despite the reputation, Wells actually played in 15 games in 2011, and was one of only 15 NFL running backs that eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards, despite his plodding running style. Stick with Wells, as the Arizona coaching staff will continue to lean on this bruiser at the goal line, as they did in 2011 (10 touchdowns).

On the Fence? CUT him: Early Doucet- The battle for the #2 wide receiver spot in Arizona’s offense was seemingly won by Doucet in 2011, as he narrowly edged youngster Andre Roberts in catches, yards, and touchdowns. However, Doucet was outplayed by Roberts over the last 5 games, as he caught only 11 passes compared to 24 for Roberts. In addition, Doucet is a free agent and his status in Arizona is in limbo. Early will most likely be playing elsewhere in 2012, so his value will be tied to the situation in which he resides. Although still young (26), Doucet’s inability to hold off Roberts in 2011 makes it unlikely that he will sign with a new team and immediately break out.

Dynasty Vault: Larry Fitzgerald- The legend of Larry kept on trucking in 2011. Not even the combo of Kevin Kolb and John  Skelton at quarterback could slow Fitzgerald, as he racked up 1,411 receiving yards, good for 4^th in the NFL. Considering the 3 players who finished ahead of Fitzgerald had Eli, Brady and Stafford throwing to them, 2011 reinforced just how special Fitz is, despite crusty QB performance. Also, keep in mind that this beast of a wide out has played in all 16 games in each of the last 4 seasons. Imagine if Peyton Manning ends up in Arizona…

Dynasty Dump: Kevin Kolb- Kolb’s 2011 season was a complete flop, as the highly touted free agent quarterback played in only 9 games with a 9/8 td/int ratio. John Skelton is still an option for the Cardinals, and they have been rumored to be a potential suitor for Peyton Manning. Even if Kolb is starting in Arizona in 2012, stay far away from him. Let’s hope 2012’s super sub Matt Flynn performs a little better after free agency than Kolb.

Dynasty Target: Ryan Williams- Williams was quickly climbing fantasy rankings last summer, only to blow out his knee before the season began. At the time, Williams was expected to get a decent share of the Arizona backfield touches next to Beanie Wells. Perhaps the lost season diminished the value of this young running back, so sniff around this offseason and see if he can be had at a bargain price. Nothing is guaranteed after a knee injury, but the Arizona coaches were huge fans of Williams at one point, so he could still end up being a productive player in the future. Plus, there are worse ways to fill out a dynasty bench than 21 year old running backs….like Chad Ochocinco.

Offseason Interest: Stick with Kolb? Spring will be an interesting time in the Arizona desert, as the Cards will be debating between holding a Kevin Kolb/John Skelton QB battle (barf), or diving head first into pursuit of Peyton Manning. A healthy Manning in town would boost Fitzgerald into the top receiver spot in 2012 (slightly edging out ‘Tron), and could provide an interesting spark in the dynasty development of Andre Roberts. That scenario sounds a lot more fun that watching Kolb throw picks, so let’s just go ahead and root for that!

There has been some news trickling in that could impact our fantasy lives but I’ll skip over that and talk about these guys below:

Dwayne Bowe: It’s looking pretty good for Bowe to return to the Chiefs next season. I’m not a fan of Matt Cassel or anyone named Matt, I’m looking at you Joey, but Cassel is just average enough to get Bowe the ball consistently. In the first 8 games with Cassel, Bowe was the 8^th best fantasy receiver last season and then came the worst game on Dwayne Bowe’s Fantasy Price is Wrong, the dreaded Palko! I’m high on Bowe for next season depending of course on his ADP, but I could see him in my top 10 pretty easily.

Isaac Redman: The news out of Pittsburgh hasn’t been great for Rashard Mendenhall. The team isn’t banking on him returning soon from his torn ACL which puts Isaac Redman at the top of the running back depth chart for now. He isn’t Barry Sanders but he’s also not a pile of rocks. Of course his value will be directly tied to Mendenhall’s recovery but he should be on everybody’s radar right now after averaging 4.4 yards per carry and running well in their playoff loss.

Mike Wallace: The Steelers are over their cap limit by 11 million dollars right now even after restructuring some deals. This leaves Wallace vulnerable to be scooped up by another team. Adam Schefter puts it at a 50/50 chance right now for what that’s worth. If Wallace were to leave, this of course would put Antonio Brown at elite fantasy receiver status and give Emmanuel Sanders a huge bump as well.

Adrian Peterson: His injury was to his ACL, MCL, and meniscus in his left knee. That’s a lot to go wrong in one knee. The good news is that he had his reconstructive surgery just 6 days after his injury on December 30th and is now set to resume running on February 28th. There is a slim chance that he will be ready for week one but a better chance that they will put him on the PUP list to start the season. We’ll have to monitor this closely but he doesn’t turn 27 until March and he is a physical specimen. I’m willing to bet on him.

Kenny Britt: Britt is running but not cutting. Thankfully his ACL injury was early in the season so he should be ready to go for training camp. He may be a bit overvalued by his insane numbers to start the season but he also may bring some value due to his injury and stupidity. His quarterback situation is actually decent. Jake Locker will be pushing Matt Hasselbeck for the starting position and I feel like both can get him the ball well enough to make him a bad ass.

Michael Bush: The latest newspeculation is that Bush won’t be franchised. He wants to be a starter and not a backup to Darren McFadden and the Raiders don’t want to pay him a starter’s salary. There is a good chance that both McFadden and Bush will both get a big boost in value next season.

Randy Moss: Don’t care.

Throughout the 2012 offseason, we will be taking a look at each NFL team from a keeper/dynasty perspective. Keeper leagues are very unique, with widely varying formats, but the following are observations based on reasonable draft positions in 2011. Further discussion of different keeper/dynasty decisions and trades is welcome in the comments below. We start by taking a look at the Offseason Odyssey of the St. Louis Rams…

Finish: 2-14 (4^th NFC West)

2012 Draft Order: 2^nd Overall Pick

2011 Leaders: QB- Sam Bradford- 2164 pass yds, 6/6 td/int RB- Steven Jackson- 1145 rush yds, 5 td, 333 rec yds, 1 td WR- Brandon Lloyd- 70 rec,  966 rec yds, 5td TE- Lance Kendricks- 28 rec, 352 rec yds, 0 td

On the Fence? KEEP him: Steven Jackson- I must admit, I have steered clear of old Steven Jackson the last few seasons, expecting him to slow down as the tread wears off his tires. In 2012, I plan on hopping back on the S-Jax train. This guy is an animal, perfectly illustrated by his SEVEN straight years of 1000+ yards rushing to go along with a boat load of catches out of the St. Louis backfield. You’ve gotta love that production and the new Jeff Fisher offense should feature lots of rushing attempts and short yardage fantasy feasting for the Ram’s main man. It may seem like a stretch, but even if it comes at a high cost, hold onto Jackson.

On the Fence? CUT him: Brandon Lloyd- What will you be doing on July 5^th this year? Nursing a hangover and sweeping fireworks off your roof? Well, while you’re busy with that, our boy Brandon Lloyd will be turning 31 years old. 31 isn’t ancient, but it doesn’t exactly make Brandon Lloyd a spring chicken…or fall chicken, or any type of chicken. Although Lloyd has been solid the past two years and could potentially land in an interesting spot as a 2012 free agent, spend you keeper slot on a younger player with less risk of hitting the old veteran wall.

Dynasty Vault: Lance Kendricks- Kendricks isn’t the type of player to build a dynasty team around, but there is reason to hang onto this youngster. Keep in mind that Kendricks’ 28 grabs for 352 yards and zero touchdowns came in a 2011 Rams passing offense that was horrendous. How bad? Ram QB’s threw a total of nine touchdowns. Nine. Also known as two less than Laurent Robinson caught by himself. Give Kendricks another shot to live up to his potential.

Dynasty Dump: Brandon Gibson- Aside from Brandon Lloyd, the Ram wide outs were a mess in 2011. Gibson led the non-Lloyd wide receivers with a whopping 36 catches last year, so do not catch yourself believing that this guy is a future star. Gibson won’t have nearly the opportunity for work in 2012, as 2011 sleeper special Danny Amendola will be returning, and even if Brandon Lloyd takes off via free agency, the Rams will undoubtedly make a move for another wide receiver. Let another owner view Gibson’s 2012 semi-emergence and age as signs of potential.

Dynasty Target: Sam Bradford- Bradford’s 2011 season was doomed by poor performance and injuries…just like your last game of pick-up hoops. The shine is gone off this young quarterback, but is that really fair? Even if Bradford was completely healthy for the entirety of 2011, what was he supposed to do with a crusty O-line and an even worse crew of wide outs? Even the late arrival of Brandon Lloyd couldn’t pull this batch of offensive weapons above water. Remember that Bradford showed enormous potential as a rookie and even in Jeff Fisher’s run heavy offense, Bradford can still blossom into a helpful fantasy quarterback. Acquire this youngster while he’s cheap.

Offseason Interest: What to do with #2? The second overall pick would be a great spot for the Rams to draft a young franchise quarterback like Robert Griffin III, except for the fact that St. Louis already has one in Bradford. The big debate will be whether to simply draft stud O-lineman Matt Kalil (which would be a big help to their underwhelming offensive line), or attempt to trade the pick to a QB hungry team and receive a huge haul of picks in return. The latter could be a smart move, as this team needs a lot more than one player. This will be interesting to follow as the NFL draft approaches.

Throughout the 2012 offseason, we will be taking a look at each NFL team from a keeper/dynasty perspective. Keeper leagues are very unique, with widely varying formats, but the following are observations based on reasonable draft positions in 2011. Further discussion of different keeper/dynasty decisions and trades is welcome in the comments below. Today, we look at the Offseason Odyssey of the Oakland Raiders…

Finish: 8-8 (3^rd AFC West)

2012 Draft Order: No first round pick (but hey, they have Carson Palmer!)

2011 Leaders: QB- Carson Palmer: 2753 pass yds, 13/16 td/int RB- Michael Bush: 977 rush yds, 7 td, 37 rec, 418 yds, 1 td WR- Darrius Heyward-Bey: 64 rec, 975 yds, 4 td TE- Kevin Boss: 28 rec, 368 yds, 3 td

On the Fence? KEEP him: Denarius Moore- No players are capable of racking up fantasy points in a hurry like big play wide receivers. With a full season with Carson Palmer on the horizon, Denarius Moore has the tools to develop into fantasy football’s next dynamite deep threat. In 2011, Moore’s rookie season, the youngster averaged 18.7 yards per catch, tying him with Victor Cruz for third best in the NFL. A 23 year old receiver with that type of play making ability should not be tossed back into your league’s player pool. The cheap price/draft round that Moore will cost will undoubtedly provide a nice profit in 2012.

On the Fence? CUT him: Jacoby Ford- One of the fantasy world’s favorite 2011 sleepers, Jacoby Ford did not fulfill those expectations due to injuries and the arrival of other Raider wide receivers. At 24, Ford is still young enough to figure things out, but with the emergence of Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, the future does not seem as bright as it once was. Even at a severely discounted price, throw Ford back and use your keeper slot on a player with a clearer path to 2012 production.

Dynasty Vault: Darren McFadden- Yes, I am fully aware that McFaddden has missed nearly five games per season in his four year NFL career. I’m also pretty sure that you aren’t so perfect either! Put down the bottle of Jack, booze hound! There are not many players in the NFL that have a game changing ceiling (or sweet nick name) quite like Run DMC. 2011 was another short year for McFadden, but the six games in which he was at full speed saw the Oakland back rack up an average of 126.8 total yards per game. DMC’s receiving skills and quickness set him apart from other backs in the NFL and a full 16 game slate from this guy would blow your fantasy football mind, not to mention bring you a title. Don’t be tempted to dump McFadden after another frustrating and injury plagued season.

Dynasty Dump: Kevin Boss- After a couple productive years with the Giants, Boss tanked last year in Oakland. Boss tallied just 368 receiving yards in 2011 (good for 28^th among NFL tight ends), and things didn’t improve once the Carson Palmer show debuted in Oakland, as Boss averaged only 21.9 yards per game in the 10 games featuring Palmer at quarterback. Only a philosophical change from the new Raider coaching staff could help salvage production from Boss, but I with the multitude of other options for the silver and black, that is not likely. At this point, Boss is just adding tight end depth on your dynasty roster, but your precious roster spot could be spent in much wiser ways.

Dynasty Target: Taiwan Jones- Cheap targets with high ceilings are what dynasty offseasons are all about. Jones’ rookie season was very unexciting, but the speedy back out of Eastern Washington University could see an increase in touches if free agent running back Michael Bush is not given the franchise tag and leaves town. Passing down back Marcel Reece may also be in the mix for backfield touches, but the backup role to brittle Darren McFadden is of considerable value in the fantasy world (see Michael Bush’s 1,395 total yards in 2011). Jones would make a nice high upside bench filler on a dynasty roster.

Offseason Interest: Michael Bush- The Raiders will have an interesting decision to make this offseason, as the most reliable half of their backfield tandem is a free agent. While it is a significant possibility that Oakland gives Bush the franchise tag, there is still a chance Bush will be allowed to enter the free agent market, which would impact running back needy NFL teams and the Raiders themselves. Bush’s value will not be overlooked by the Raiders, or other teams, as Bush was the 11^th highest scoring fantasy back (in standard scoring systems) in 2011, despite not receiving more than 10 carries in a game until week 6.The landing spot of Bush will be of great interest to fantasy players, so stay tuned.

You’ve heard enough about this game by now that I’m not going to be able to give you much enlightenment. My take on today’s bout is pretty simple. I believe the Giants have the more well rounded team with a strong defense and offense while the Patriots have a stronger offense and a slightly weaker defense. I believe the game will be extremely close and whoever has the ball last will most likely be the winner. I’m going to predict that that team is the Giants. I seriously have never felt that a Super Bowl was this evenly matched. It should be an awesome one so don’t get so drunk that you miss out on what should be an awesome finish!

Giants 24 – Patriots 21

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Our ESPN Playoff League is coming down to the wire. The winner gets this awesome Razzball mug:

Razzball, Where Fantasy Football Happens by cogresha
See more Fantasy Mugs

I’d now like to announce the 2011 Razzball Commenter League Champion – - KJ Is The Man wins! He amazingly won the overall prize while not winning his league with an amazing 13 win season while no other team topped 11 wins. Quite a run KJ! Congrats.

Check out how you finished here and if you won your league send me an email at doc at razzball dot com with your address and league name.

Fantasy Sports Trophies is graciously giving us an overall trophy and individual league trophies. You will someday be able to show your grand kids these trophies and talk about the good old days when fantasy football was a gentleman’s game and everyone wore top hats and kids didn’t have droid helpers and the air didn’t smell of sulphur.

Fantasy Sports Trophies offer a variety of fantasy trophies such as Hockey, Basketball, Baseball, Auto Racing along with fantasy football draft boards for those that like to gather their fantasy clan together for a few brews and some good old fashioned ego depleting put downs. They also carry trophies of the less glorious type. Like, the Biggest Crybaby Award or the Bull Shit Trade Award. So take a look see at their site. There’s something for everyone.

Here is KJ’s trophy in all its glory:

Throughout the 2012 offseason, we will be taking a look at each NFL team from a keeper/dynasty perspective. Keeper leagues are very unique, with widely varying formats, but the following are observations based on reasonable draft positions in 2011. Further discussion of different keeper/dynasty decisions and trades is welcome in the comments below. Today, we look at the Offseason Odyssey of the San Diego Chargers…

Finish: 8-8 (2^nd AFC West)

2012 Draft Order: 18^th overall pick

2011 Leaders: QB- Philip Rivers: 4624 pass yds, 27/20 td/int RB- Ryan Mathews: 1091 rush yds, 6 td, 50 rec, 455 yds WR- Vincent Jackson: 60 rec, 1106 yds, 9 td TE- Antonio Gates: 64 rec, 778 yds, 7 td

On the Fence? KEEP him: Malcom Floyd- A player like Malcom Floyd could become a sneaky keeper this offseason, depending on what happens with teammate Vincent Jackson in free agency (more on that below). Floyd was very productive while on the field last season, as illustrated by averaging 91 receiving yards per game over the Chargers’ last 5 games. If V-Jax leaves San Diego this offseason, Floyd has proven he can excel in the Charger offense and there will be lots of targets to go around. Floyd would be a nice value while costing a very late round pick, or could be nice for depth in leagues that keep a larger number of players.

On the Fence? CUT him: Antonio Gates- Make no mistake, Antonio Gates is a great tight end, and has had a fantastic career. However, Gates’ title of top tight end has been stolen away by Gronk/Graham (depending on preference) and he has arguably slipped behind a few other tight ends as well. Gates will most likely still be a top 5 tight end in 2012 fantasy drafts, but the decision to make an aging player like Gates a keeper needs to be based on the value you can squeeze out of the situation. If your keeper setup requires that you cough up a higher pick than where you selected Gates in 2011, or if you have another player that has a chance to provide a higher return on the keeper slot he is occupying, let Gates go. Plus, the time you save from not slaving over San Diego’s injury reports all season can be spent on something more productive….like playing X-box.

Dynasty Vault: Ryan Mathews- In 2011, Mathews finally showed what he is capable of is he is (mostly) healthy. The second year back from Fresno State finished 10^th in the NFL in rushing yards, and 5^th in receiving yards among running backs. Although the injury risk is a serious threat to Mathews’ production, he will still be only 25 when the 2012 season kicks off and fellow backfield mate (and sniper) Mike Tolbert should be playing elsewhere via free agency. Following a 2011 season at 4.9 yards per carry and with receiving skills on par with Forte/Foster/McCoy type running backs, Mathews is a dynamic back that will carry dynasty teams for years.

Dynasty Dump: Mike Tolbert- The sun has set on Tolbert’s time in San Diego, as the portly running back is currently a free agent. After a solid 2010, Tolbert began 2011 in the same fashion until giving way to the more talented Ryan Mathews over the latter stages of the season. Tolbert is still a nice complimentary back who can be utilized in the passing game (3.6 catches per game in 2011), but the 2012 team/scheme will go a long way in determining Tolbert’s value. Check and see what type of value Tolbert can bring in trade with a team that is shallow at running back.

Dynasty Target: Vincent Brown- Brown didn’t blow up in 2011 like a few of his fellow rookie wide receivers, but that is precisely why this guy is a great player to target this offseason. Similar to Malcom Floyd, Brown would be in line for a huge jump in playing time (and sweet, sweet fantasy points) if Vincent Jackson leaves town. Add that to the fact that Brown just turned 23, while Floyd is 30, and this could be the next big Charger wide receiver. Make your move and acquire Brown before the 2012 destination of V-Jax is revealed. That could be the difference between acquiring Brown cheaply, or paying inflated “sleeper” prices next summer.

Offseason Interest: Vincent Jackson Contract- The biggest weapon among Charger receivers is currently enjoying free agency, which is a big issue for the Chargers as well as fantasy football players. Clearly, fantasy players are the most important, so let’s talk about the potential fake football fallout. The San Diego offense threw for 289 yards per game in 2011 (good for 6^th in the NFL), so the number one receiver in town will be piling up a serious stack of fantasy points in 2012. If V-Jax remains in San Diego, he will continue to be a top flight wide out. If he bounces out of San Diego, the door is open for Malcom Floyd or Vincent Brown to step into the San Diego spotlight alongside Philip Rivers and Ron Burgundy.

Some of us Twitter nerds are doing a way too early mock draft for next season. So far I’m kind of just winging it and seeing how it plays out. I’m not loving my team but I’m starting to learn how things might shake out. So take a look see with my comments for each pick of the first round.

1 – @Chet_G: Arian Foster: After Foster blew up last season I couldn’t quite figure out how much of his success came from his skill versus the Texans’ offensive line and Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme but after spending more time watching him run this season I believe he truly is a special talent. When I watched him earlier it often felt like he could drive a couple trucks through the holes his line burrowed out but his vision and ability to cut and go at top speed is all him. His hamstring injury slowed him down this season or he would have easily been the top back again. I think he’s worth your #1 pick next season.

2 – @WideReceiving: Ray Rice: If I had to pick anyone first other than Foster it would be Rice. His receiving ability and goal line backism made him the #1 running back this year. I will be happy with the #2 pick next season.

3 – @RyanMc23: LeSean McCoy: I truly have no idea how he scored 20 touchdowns this season on an Eagles team that underperformed in almost every area possible. But he did and he’s pretty darn awesome. I don’t believe he’ll have as many touchdowns next season but I do think he’ll up his receptions and receiving yards which in PPR makes him worthy of this spot.

4 – @EyeoftheGator: Maurice Jones-Drew: This is an interesting pick. I have 3 options here in my brain cavity right now and they are Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte and MJD. Yes, many will say Aaron Rodgers but I believe it is still too early for him. Right now I’m leaning Megatron based on his total domination of the position this season. There really is nobody playing at his level right now and on a team that throws as much as Detroit. I am a little worried by MJD’s usage this season (386 touches) and the fact that he has no offense backing him up. He had a miraculous season and it will be hard to duplicate.

5 – @Ftblsickness: Darren McFadden: I could see Run DMC going all over the place in 2012 drafts. This does seem a bit early for him with Megatron and Forte still on the board but he has the upside to be the #1 overall pick so it will be tough to say this is a bad pick. He could go on to never miss another game for the rest of his career for all I know but he’s still a bit risky for me this early.

6 – @Ryan_Boser: Calvin Johnson: Here’s Mr. Big Tron and 6th overall seems like a decent value for him. Hard to say 6th overall is “value” but his domination at the WR position can really push your team out to a nice head start.

7 – @jrnall2: Aaron Rodgers: I’ve seen a lot of people that have always been anti drafting a QB in the first round saying they will change their tune in 2012 with Rodgers and Brees. I agree and disagree at the same time. It’s my right!! Rodgers is about as much of a lock as you can possibly find. He’s durable, puts up great passing numbers and consistently gets around 4 rushing TDs a year. You really can’t say no thanks to that. But I most likely will, at least to a point. The reason I may go with Rodgers in the first round next season is because there are a lot of injury concerns at other positions and the other guys going late in the first round are going to be pretty risky this year.

8 – @RyFo18: Jamaal Charles: J.C. is my home skillet. Or something much less dorky. Of course he lost me a whole boat load of games last season by getting hurt but hey, shizz happens. Thankfully his injury came extremely early in the season and he should be ready to go.

9 – @K_Schwaggs: Ryan Mathews: Mathews will be interesting to see where his ADP falls for next season. I am a huge fan of his but of course he likes to get nicked up often. He was relatively healthy this season but Tolbert and some nagging injuries hurt his overall numbers. The good news is that Tolbert will probably be gone this off season which should help Mathews. I like him in the first round.

10 – @Maury_Morris: Andre Johnson: A.J. is the equal of Calvin Johnson in ability but the Texans tremendous running game and Johnson’s injury woes of late have become troublesome. His potential is too great to pass up but he does have risk and is starting to get up there in NFL age.

11 – @PFF_MikeClay: Matt Forte: Forte was having a great first half of the season but started to trail off and then got hurt. The injury doesn’t seem to be much of a concern since he’s going to play in the Pro Bowl so I’m not worried about that. His upside is right up there with LeSean McCoy so I think Mike got a nice deal here at 11th overall.

12 – @PFF_Alex: Chris Johnson: What to do with Chris Johnson? He stayed healthy so injuries aren’t a concern but of course the fact that he was healthy and sucked for most of the season is disconcerting. I’m not going to risk him in the first round just because I never really saw his old ability on display this season.