Fantasy Football Advice

Good morning, afternoon, evening, witching hour, etc… Here are some links to peruse while you engulf yourself in the madness that is March.  Thankfully April is the cruelest month, unless you are an Ohio fan.  And who isn’t, only Iowa can compete with all those vowels.  I will be off on vacation all next week so postings may be a little sparse, but we’ll get you some nuggets to chew on.  And don’t you just love chewy nuggets? I know I do.

Rotoworld’s Chris Wesseling takes a look at backfields to avoid next season.  I agree with much of what he’s written here.  Of course it’s always harder to stay away from them later in the draft, but if you can, do it.

If you are looking for some other great hubs for fantasy links take a look at The Daily Haze, The Fantasy Football Librarian, and Fantasy Rundown.  They’ll lead you in the right direction.

The Fifth Down takes a look at the proposed overtime rules.

Here are some Ben Roethlisberger pick up lines for your amusement.

NFL Fanhouse takes a look at the Cincinnati Bengals receivers for fantasy.

Fantasy Depth Chart projects the Minnesota Vikings fantasy players for next season. They’ve got other team projections as well.  Check them out.

Advanced NFL Stats gives us a new stat, Yeah!! called yards per target.  I like it and plan on using it in my fantasy deciphering.

Matt Bowen wonders if Derek Anderson is more than a backup plan in Arizona?

The Sporting News takes a look at some wayward NFL players who should find a home soon.

Speaking of The Sporting News, I was sad to see that they have stopped hosting fantasy games.  I played salary cap there for many years and really got to know and like the community.  I even won 10k on their salary cap game.  You can’t go back home again, as Thomas Wolfe told me when we were shooting rabbits off his porch, no the rabbits weren’t on the porch, we were.

We are one day closer to real NFL games!  I won’t tell you how many days that is because it is unbelievably depressing.  Thankfully there are interesting moves made every day (except Grossman going to the Redskins (not interesting).  Here are a few of the goings on in the NFL.

Ladainian Tomlinson: LT’s signing with the Jets sounds bad for Shonn Greene, but it’s not as bad as if Thomas Jones or someone not worn down to the nub, was backing him up.  I see LT taking the touches away from Leon Washington on third down.  He could also see some goal line work, but I don’t see him being as effective as Greene.  I may drop Greene down a spot, but I still think he’s a first rounder.

I believe this signing is more of an indictment of their confidence in Mark Sanchez’s ability to handle a larger load next season and the Jets not being sure Leon Washington will be ready to start the season.  I actually could see Washington taking carries away from LT as the season progresses.

Charlie Whitehurst: After all the hub bub about him possibly being traded I decided to grab him in my deep dynasty league.  Now that he just got paid 10 million for 2 years and is backing up old man Hasselbeck I am kinda happy I did that.  It’s really too early to think about him actually contributing for reals, but if you own Hass in a dynasty it would be worth picking him up.  With that kind of money and supposed potential, Matt might be on a short leash next season and just think if they wrangle Brandon Marshall.

Mike Bell: He should be an Eagle soon, which at first glance is bad news McCoy for, yeah, LeSean McCoy.  There has never been much doubt that Andy Reid didn’t trust McCoy in short yardage situations so for us fantasy footballers to think that McCoy is losing those carries is ludicrous.  He never had them.  But what McCoy does have is youth and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver will be the brawn to McCoy’s scrappiness.

Derek Anderson: He has signed with the Cardinals which puts some doubt in the already extremely doubted Matt Leinart.  It looks like there will be competition for the quarterback position, but Leinart does have the most work in Whisenhunt’s offense and should hold an advantage over Anderson.

Rex Grossman: Faker.

Tight ends are barely above kickers and defenses on my fantasy totem, but that is more because of the need to only start one.  With tight ends becoming more and more offensive, I don’t see any reason not to make 2 TE leagues more prevalent.  That will be my goal next season, to join a 2 TE league, then all my hopes and dreams will have finally come to fruition.

Tier 1

1. Vernon Davis 26 — He’s always had the skills, but now he’s got the stats.

2. Antonio Gates 30 — He’s the second target in a pass first team and is probably the best TE now.

3. Dallas Clark 31 — He’s getting up there in age, but still has Manning.

4. Jermichael Finley 23 — Too young and good to pass up.  I could see gambling on him earlier.

5. Jason Witten 28 — Had a bit of a down year, but he hasn’t lost it.

Tier 2

6. Brent Celek 25 — Looked great last season and is in a great offense for TE.

7. Owen Daniels 27 — He’d be in that top tier if it wasn’t for his injury.

8. Kellen Winslow 27 — He’s the focal point of the Bucs inept offense right now.

9. Chris Cooley 28 — He’s consistent and should rebound from his injury and association with OCNN.

Tier 3

10. Zach Miller (OAK) 24 — On just about any other team he’d be a lot higher.

11. Greg Olsen 25 — Olsen is good, but now has Martz to deal with.

Tier 4

12. Brandon Pettigrew 25 — I grabbed Brandon “Peter” Pettigrew in my dynasty league.

13. Dustin Keller 26 — Keeps showing flashes of brilliance. He goes as Sanhcise goes.

Tier 5

14. Tony Gonzalez 34 — Wow, this guy keeps on going.  Make sure you grab an upside young guy to pair with him.

15. John Carlson 26 — He’s good, but Seattle is bad.  Carroll will be the big factor in how many touches he gets.

16. Heath Miller 27 — Solid and steady sometimes wins the race.

Tier 6

17. Tony Scheffler 27 — Depending on where he ends up, I see him having a comeback.

18. Vinsanthe Shiancoe 30 — Favre really boosted his numbers.  Could do that again, but I believe he needs the old man.

19. Kevin Boss 26 — He will be a good TE #2 for years to come.

Tier 7

20. Zach Miller 25 — The last game of the season saw Zach Millers scoring a bunch of TD’s.  Miller should start to cut into Mercede Lewis’ playing time.

21. Ben Watson 29 — Going to the Browns doesn’t sound like an upgrade, but Watson needed to get out of Belichick’s dog house.

22. Jared Cook 23 — With the resigining of Scaife, Cook will probably need to wait another season, but he has the skills to be good in the long term.

Tier 8

23. Marcedes Lewis 27 — Will have to fight Miller off.

24. Bo Scaife 29 — Still a starter, but (insert Scaife sucking joke).

25. Todd Heap 30 — He’s not even close to the player he once was.

26. Jeremy Shockey 30 — Nagging injuries and grossness keep him in the basement.

27. David Thomas 27 — The founder of Wendy’s will once again be filling in for Shockey.

If dynasty teams subsisted on illegal drugs:

Uppers

Joe Flacco: His stock has risen substantially with the acquisition of Anquan Boldin and the reupping of Derrick “old man” Mason.  Donte Stallworth could prove to be helpful as well, but I’m reserving judgment for now.  Also having one of the top pass catching running backs in Ray Rice also doesn’t hurt.  Flacco had a hip injury last season that slowed him down after a hot start.  The question for dynasty owners is, will the Ravens change their strategy from run first and play hard defense to pass first and play little to no defense?  The way the money is now being funneled it’s hard not to see them throwing more next season.  Cam Cameron knows how to throw the ball, or at least how to tell others to thrown the ball.  It’s hard to imagine the unibrowed one throwing for 4k yards and 25+ TD’s, but it’s looking more and more like a possibility.

Larry Johnson: He was signed by the Redskins which unfortunately means he could become their starter unless they grab somebody, anybody! Clinton Portis will probably go into the season as the starter if he can stay healthy through training camp, which is a monumental if.  Portis of course had the concussion problem last season, but maybe more importantly, he had about 37 injured body parts.  We could see a fairly split backfield to start the season to keep Portis upright, but eventually LJ will probably have to take over.  All this is to say he is a possible starter, which is meaningful in fantasy, but he still ain’t good.

Jamaal Charles: Yes, I pushed him down a few spots in my redraft rankings, but I’m leaving him where he is in the dynasty rankings.  You can see my thoughts on Tom Jones coming to town, but the reason I have him taking uppers is his perceived value has fallen more than his actual value.  It might be a good time to try to trade one of your aging backs for him.  Steven Jackson maybe?

Downers

Derrick Mason: With his age he wasn’t a high dynasty pick, but he is so steady that it was worth the possible 2 more years of 80 receptions and 1,000 yards, but now with Anquan Boldin on board his stock is falling quickly.  He might be had at some value late, but with his age and role shrinking, his upside is going down side.

Wes Welker: It was revealed that Welker also has a torn rotator cuff.  It should heal by the time his knee is healed, but yet another body part that could have a set back.  He should drop a couple slots in the dynasty rankings and even further in the redraft rankings.  Which means Edelman could get a little booster shot.

Chad Henne: His future is still bright, but I was expecting the Dolphins to get Boldin or Bryant and both have signed with teams not named after a water dwelling mammal.  They will once again be run first and second and then bring in Pat White to run the wildcat unless we see a move that doesn’t look to be in the works right now.

Washington, just like all of the high pick teams are in desperate need for big hole fillers.  With the #4 pick in the 2010 NFL draft the Washington Redskins take Jacob Jingleheimerschmidt to fill their big hole! Nah, Jacob will go earlier than that.

The Native Americans offensive line is offensive.  Jason Campbell was harassed often and molested nearly as often.  The draftnicks of the world have been mocking them with QB Jimmy Clausen, DE Jason Pierre Paul, OT Russell Okung, and DT Gerald McCoy.  Much depends on where newly acquired head coach Mike Shanahan envisions the future.  Is Campbell the man?  Will a better defense keep them in games so they can win a few this season? Is Clausen a possible franchise QB or Campbell 2.o?

There is no reason to truly believe Campbell is the QB to lead this team to the promised land. Does he suck? Not always.  Is Clausen any better?  Maybe not.  From the way the offseason has gone it looks like Shanny is thinking long term (even though I’m not sure what he’s thinking with Leisure Suit Larry).  He could easily believe the devil he knows (and the rest of the team knows) is better for the short term than Clausen.  Patience might be the best course when looking at quarterbacks in this years draft.  They could grab one in the late rounds as a project and hope for a trade or to grab a franchise QB in 2011.

Thinking long term usually means doing something boring like saving money by spending your summer vacation drinking cheap scotch while watching American Idol.  Russell Okung is like cheap scotch in this horrible analogy.  As long as you don’t get addicted to offensive lineman you’ll be ok.  The big picture needs some fatty o-lineman in it.  If they stick with Campbell and really want to know if he can elevate his game, they need to give him some protection.  They just paid 14 billion for a Fat Albert so I don’t see them tying a bunch of money up with McCoy.  I believe it’s down to Clausen and Okung with Okung probably being the best choice unless Shanny wants to kick Campbell to the curb.

In the short term, fantasy-wise, it would probably behoove them to stick with Campbell, which they probably will no matter who they pick.  Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and Devin Thomas will need him as their QB, to succeed.  Adding a tackle can only help Campbell and possibly give him a decent shot at #2 QB status.