Fantasy Football Advice

Most who follow Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com on Twitter seethe at each “IDP” tag and wonder how he can make light of internally displaced persons. In this case, however, we’re talking individual defensive players, who add realism to your fake football leagues and gripes for the whiny leaguemate who always finishes last anyway. Schauf will be stopping by once a week to help you beat ol’ whiny even worse.

In leagues that do it right, IDPs should act more or less like their offensive counterparts in fantasy. However, just like with hitting a golf ball and dental hygiene (yeah, I’m talking about you), a whole lot of folks don’t do it right.

In my experience, the typical IDP league often includes something like three or four starting slots. That’s understandable if you’re just getting into the whole defensive player thing. It’s scary to jump all the way in the first time. Water wings are comforting.

Once you learn to dogpaddle, though, you should realize that only using that many defenders is akin to crafting a fantasy lineup with three or four starters from the entire pool of running backs, receivers and tight ends. Actually, the defensive pool is even deeper because it includes all defensive starters for every team.

If you do fall into that group that starts fewer IDPs, however, it’s important to realize the advantages. The primary focus for today is that the deep pool makes it easier to draft risky players. You might shy away from investing in Laurent Robinson because his injury history could leave you in whatever a lurch is (OK, and because he’s a Ram). If/when Bob Sanders gets hurt, though, you probably won’t have to search nearly as hard to find a replacement. Bernard Pollard finished last year averaging more points per game than any other defensive back in most fantasy outfits (that’ll confuse the Google bots), but he started the year on the waiver wire.

With that in mind, here are some other defenders you can take a chance on in your shallower-lineup IDP leagues …

Bob Sanders, SS, Colts – You know he’ll get hurt at some point, but you should also know that he reached 90 tackles (that’s good for his position) each of the two years he made it to double-digit games. The last time he stayed around for most of the year, Sanders was the defensive player of the year. Go ahead and draft him. Melvin Bullitt will be around if he gets hurt.

Nick Barnett, ILB, Packers — He tore up a knee two years ago and started last year slowly as a result. Some swelling in that knee and resultant downtime this summer has led to recent worry, but Barnett’s expected to be ready to go for the regular season. If we find out in the first few weeks there was reason to worry, we’ll adjust. For now, take the guy with top-10 potential at his position.

Jonathan Vilma, MLB, Saints — Two opinions told Vilma he doesn’t need groin surgery, and at least one even came from a doctor. He should start Week 1 and has top-five scoring potential.

DeAndre Levy, MLB, Lions — This second-year guy has been one of those sleepers who might not really be a sleeper because so many folks call him a sleeper. (That make him a napper?) Either way, the fact that he missed a lot of camp practices with a back injury and then a more recent groin injury hurts his draft status, which makes him a much better value. Levy might miss Week 1, but as long as you’re ready for that possibility, you can get yourself a prime breakout candidate.

Kenny Phillips, S, Giants — Last year at this time, those around the Giants (who must look tiny by comparison) were excited about Phillips. The off-season brought worries that his career could be in jeopardy (or was that Ken Jennings?) because of a deteriorating knee condition. He now appears on track to start the season, though, and has star potential.

D’Qwell Jackson, ILB, Browns — When a guy finishes one season on IR with a torn muscle and then suffers an injury to the same area (chest) the following year, it can be worrisome. No tear this time around, so Jackson should be back soon. He has been a favorite of Eric Mangini and a tackling machine (seems unfair) when in there, so Jackson should be drafted at the later stage he’s likely available.

A few others with camp injuries about whom you should be confident

Trent Cole, DE, Eagles

Lance Briggs, OLB, Bears

Gary Brackett, MLB, Colts

Clay Matthews, OLB, Packers

Two others to roster if you have a backup spot but who won’t start right away

Shaun Rogers, DL, Browns

Calvin Pace, OLB, Jets

Five injured players to ignore

Darren Sharper, S, Saints — The knee on which he had microfracture surgery appears likely to sideline him early this year. The inflated fantasy numbers from nine INTs and three TDs last year were reason to look away from him in the first place.

Jairus Byrd, S, Bills — He made a name for himself last year (which probably insulted his parents) by picking off a lot of passes as a rookie, but Byrd didn’t tally too terribly many tackles. Look at the overall numbers (plus as many groin injuries as he’s had pro seasons) and you’ll understand why to not draft him.

Elvis Dumervil, OLB, Broncos — Denver is holding out hope that he’ll play in December. You’ll be charged as a hostage taker if you keep him on your redraft-league roster under the same hope.

Thomas Davis, OLB, Panthers — If you could kindly take that previous paragraph and insert Carolina in place of Denver, I’d appreciate it.

Channing Crowder, ILB, Dolphins — You women out there who like your men mysterious might be fans of Crowder and his “undisclosed” leg injury, but I want no part of it. He doesn’t produce consistently enough to be worth the wait.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com and the brains behind (or would that be inside?) the “Suit” character in their free fantasy football game. Challenge him and 10 other fantasy Pros for a guaranteed $100,000 grand prize.

So we’ve gone through picks 1-4 and 5-8 and now we tackle 9-12.  I’ve always liked being able to grab two players close to back to back in the first and second rounds and we’ll see how that turns out here.  Sadly our ADP is going all bat poo crazy so our guide is a little askew from the last two (yeah, I should have taken a screen shot).  Anyway, we are using FFC again.  Let’s see what we have.

1st round 9-12 ADP has Moss, Jackson, Wayne, Calvin Johnson while I have a bunch of running backs in that range, Mendy, JC Superstar, Greene, and Mathews, but Steven Jackson falling to this area is a boon.  His TD totals kept him from being a top tier RB last season, but I see that number rising.  Some people are worried about his back which is why his ADP seems to be slipping a little.  He played through the back problems last season and he worked extra hard to strengthen it during the off season. I like him here.

2nd round picks are 13-16, Brees, Austin, Mathews, and Mendy.  The upside of Mendy, JC, Greene and Matthews  (all still on the board) is easily top 10. I usually go into this draft slot with an idea that I could possibly grab two top tier wide receivers or at least a RB/WR, but even though many ‘perts lament the plight of the second tier running back, I actually feel pretty good about them.  Yes, they do have question marks, but running backs inherently have question marks.  If we go RB/RB our #1 receiver won’t come until picks 33-36.  What to do? What to do? I’m going with Rashard Mendenhall.  I believe he is the safest/highest upside back available and I love him as a #2 pick.

The 3rd round gives us picks 33-36, Schaub, Romo, McCoy, and The Steve Smiths.  I NEED a wide receiver!  And I’m going with Steve Smith, no, Steve Smith, not Steve Smith!  The Panthers are a run first and second team, but Smith is the guy and Matt Moore knows where his passing bread and butter is served.  Smith was hurt by Delhomme’s bad play last season and can be a top tier receiver again.

The 4th round 37-40 has a bunch of players I am interested in like Best, Wells, Foster, Clark, Forte, Crabtree, Gates, Rivers, Finley, Stewart, Bowe, Addai, Brown, Moreno, VD, Nicks and MSW that all probably won’t get back to me again at 57-60.  I have 2 RBs and 1 WR.  I want another high upside receiver, but I can pick anyone and fill in a starter slot.  Are you kidding me?!  Too many choices!  If this was PPR I would be looking really hard at Best, but in non-PPR I’m looking hard at Beanie and Arian.  My rankings have Beanie ahead of Arian right now, but it is very close.  This is where I have 90 seconds to make a choice and I go with my gut, Arian Foster.  I may write a post on this, but the draft is going! Onto the next round!

Round 5, picks 57-60, Witten, Garcon, Harvin, and Ward are there.  My starting RBs are secured and now I really need a WR.  I’m going with the old reliable, Hines Ward. He was the 16th overall fantasy receiver last season and now he doesn’t have Holmes on the other side.  I like Wallace a lot, but he is still young and Ward will get his.

Round 6 and picks 61-64 with a whole lotta picks between now and our next turn.  But I’m not going to list them all because I know who I have to choose from.  Kevin Kolb, Jay Cutler, and Joe Flacco are all in this next round and are all on my QB Christmas list.  Even with their poor preseasons I have faith in both Kolb and Cutler.  Should I?  Sure.  This is preseason.  Don’t read too much into it.  I have taken Cutler in each of my draft position posts and I’m not going to change things now.  He looks like a prick and he’s dating a girl from The Hills, what’s not to love? (eye rolling emoticon).

Round 7 and picks 81-84 are Daniels, Favre, Dez Bryant, and Housh.  Bryant’s stock is rising since Roy Williams has an injury and Bryant is back to practicing, but I’m not fully on board in the 7th round.  Housh in non-ppr is non-good.  So we are going to have to take a look further down the ADP scale.  I have been targeting Robert Meachem around these parts, but he is limited by a toe injury and it’s giving a lot more looks to Henderson and Moore.  I need a WR to fill out my starters, but the upside guys are pretty much gone. What I’m seeing isn’t awe inspiring.  I am a big fan of Derick Mason for his stability, but I already have the extra-stable Ward.  Bernard Berrian is available, but do I really want him starting? Jacoby Jones and Zach Miller, two of “my guys,” are far enough down that I can wait on them.  So I’m going to bite the bullet and go with Bernard Berrian.  Favre has some weird magic Vicodin he is slipping himself and his receivers.  We’ll see if he can keep scoring some.

Round 8 has picks 85-88 and pretty much the same shituation as last round.  Cadillac and Portis are here and I do not want either.  I would rather have their craptastic backups in the last round than them here. So I’m going to make sure I get my man Zach Miller.  Yes, his ADP goes into round 9, but I’ve seen him go earlier.  I think I’ll  play it safe.

Round 9 and we are at picks 105-108.  It’s time to start looking at backup RBs and there are a few right here, including, Hightower, McFadden, F. Jackson, and Hardesty.  In non-PPR these guys aren’t quite as tempting as in PPR so I’m going with the highest risk, highest reward guy in Hardesty.  If I felt RBs were a weakness I would go with someone with a better track record, but I feel pretty good with my guys and Hardesty is still an unknown.  Jerome Harrison had a shot to really take a hold on the RB spot, but he didn’t and now Hardesty will get his shot at the job.  If he wins it, I get good value here.

The 10th Round looks like a good spot to look for a backup QB with picks 109-112.  Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger are both here.  I love McNabb’s ability to avoid interceptions and I’m not as down on him as some.  Yes, the Indigenous Peoples of Washington DC have pretty poor receivers, but Moss and Cooley aren’t the dregs of society and McNabb has done well with less than good receivers before (albeit in a pass first offense).  But Big Ben does look like an elite QB, or at least close to being one.  And he will be on a mission to make up for lost ground.  In this battle I am a little worried about Big Ben raping and pillaging the Indigenous People, so I’ll grab him before he does any damage.

The 11th round and picks 129-132 have Jacoby Jones, Rice, Gaffney, and McGahee.  I think Rice will help you in the playoffs, but with such a small bench I just don’t want to clog up a spot with an injured player.  If you have an IR position I’d grab him, but I’m going with Jacoby Jones here.

The 12th round and picks 133-136 are here.  Like I’ve said before, at this point in the draft you grab guys you like.  You will probably drop these guys for more stable production at some point, but upside is what you want here. And when you think of upside, you think of Larry Johnson!  Well, upside doesn’t have to be in the ability of the player, it can be in the probability of opportunity, or as I like to call it for short, POO.

The 13th round and picks 153-156 usher Legedu Naanee onto my team. He has found his way onto my teams often.  I really like Malcolm Floyd, but I also haven’t been finding him on my draft radar for some reason.  Naanee has a shot at being a decent late round flier.

The 14th round and picks 157-160 will be Kareem Huggins again.  Derick Ward is officially a ward of the state, unless I don’t understand the meaning of that phrase.  But Ward was cut and Huggins is the backup.  I don’t trust Caddy’s engineer.

The 15/16th rounds — Kicker and Defense, You fill in the blanks ___________/____________

1. Steven Jackson

2. Rashard Mendenhall

3. Steve Smith (CAR)

4. Arian Foster

5. Hines Ward

6. Jay Cutler

7. Bernard Berrian

8. Zach Miller

9. Montario Hardesty

10. Ben Roethlisberger

11. Jacoby Jones

12. Larry Johnson

13. Legedu Naanee

14. Kareem Huggins

15. ____________

16. ____________

Well, this is my least favorite team.  In retrospect I probably should have grabbed a WR in the 2nd round (Yeah, I know I could go back and delete that part, but I want you to see it as is).  I love my two RBs, but my WRs are very weak.  I am really amazed at how poor my options were.  It seemed like all the players I wanted were in one round!  If I learned anything from this, it is to hope some of the guys I like fall in the 7th-9th rounds.

I have gone back and forth on how I feel about PPR leagues, but I believe I am finally on board completely.  My aversion to them was mainly because I was just so used to playing in non-PPR.  But this season I am really moving toward league set ups that allow for a more balanced playing field and a somewhat truer to “life” fake football game.  Auctions and 2 QB leagues are also high on my list this season.  And I plan on campaigning for 2 TE leagues when my schedule allows.  To me the closest to a perfect league is Auction draft, 12-14 teams, 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 1 R/W/T, K, D/ST (Yes, I know, IDP, Hey, I only have so much time in my day!), and then a somewhat basic scoring with 1 PPR.

PPR takes those versatile running backs and gives them a leg up on those plodding, run up the gut for half a foot and accumulate touchdowns specialists.  It awards the players we are paying to see make spectacular catch and runs, but who are also able to get those tough yards.  And it also spreads out the number or running backs that may hold value, so you have to expand your knowledge base a little more.  (This is also true with return yardage leagues, but that is another story)

And besides running backs it gives receivers more value.  Elite wide receivers don’t really come close to the elite running backs in non-PPR scoring, but in PPR it narrows that lead dramatically.  It also gives a nice boost to all those scrappers that go over the middle scrappy-like and into the concussion scrap-zone.

So, with that said, how do you go about drafting in a Points Per Receptions league?  First off, don’t go crazy.  For the most part PPR and non-PPR follow many of the same guidelines.  You still only need 1 QB and 1 TE so go for value, just as you would in non PPR.  And a good player in non-ppr is still a good player in ppr, how much their ranking changes depends completely on how many receptions they have.  Yes, that is a Joe Theisman statement if he knew anything about fantasy football, but remember that is the only difference.  Receiving yards count for the same amount of points as before.

The biggest change in strategy is where you pick wide receivers.  There are those elite few that you can count on grabbing 80+ receptions and you want them on your team.  Running backs have higher ceilings than wide receivers even in PPR, but they are not nearly as reliable.  When you are playing in a non-PPR league you can take the risk of grabbing a running back with a lot of upside because you know that the risk is not as bad as the reward.  But in PPR the chance that you get this seasons Chris Johnson is slim because the odds of there even being a Chris Johnson: Dos Mil are low.

So you are going with wide receivers early.  Good for you! But where do you draw the line?  Last season the top 3 RBs won out over the wide receivers, but then it was a wide receiver orgy.  Let’s take a look see at the top ten in ESPN PPR leagues last season.

1. Chris Johnson 379

2. Maurice Jones-Drew 308

3. Adrian Peterson 308

4. Andre Johnson 306

5. Ray Rice 306

6. Randy Moss 279

7. Wes Welker 278

8. Reggie Wayne 277

9. Larry Fitzgerald 277

10. Miles Austin 275

So that’s 6 of the top 10 players in PPR being wide receivers.  And if you keep moving down the list you keep running into receivers.  In 10-20 there are only 3 running backs.  So in many ways this becomes a reverse situation to non ppr.  The chances of getting a top 20 receiver later in the draft are pretty good.   Two ways of thinking can crop up.  The leading receivers are very stable and they score a whole bucket full of points.  The top 10 running backs don’t score as many points and they aren’t all that stable, so I need to start my draft with 2 WRs, especially if I don’t have one of the top 3-4 slots.  For the most part this is sound, but it also can turn around on you.

The drop off from the top running backs in PPR to the 10-12 running back is steeper than the drop off from the top WR and the 10-12 WR.  So grabbing a top RB is a good idea, but when do you start getting diminishing returns? Well, usually when the running backs stop catching passes.  Wide receivers just catch balls, that’s their thing.  Running backs don’t have to, and as soon as we hit those RBs that don’t, it’s time to make sure you are grabbing receivers.  10 of the top 13 RBs had 40 receptions or more.  The only backs who can buck the trend are ones who get into the endzone an inordinate amount of times, which you cannot always count on happening.  But you can count on receptions.

So my plan going into a PPR draft is to take the top 4 RBs, AJ, then Frank Gore and SJax, then go wide receiver crazy, until the ADP’s of Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Jahvid Best come around.  I do not want two running backs to start a PPR draft though.  Receivers will be going off the board quickly and I very much want at least on of the top tier guys.

If I grab 2 elite receivers and then start my running backs with McCoy or Best, I am happy.  Your PPR team should be lean and mean with hands of stickeem (or stickum).  I am more than willing to draft Michael Turner, but I rather have Jamaal Charles.  Receptions just happen for the guys that are good at catching the ball.  Your player could have 50 yards rushing and 6 receptions for 45 yards and no TDs and you had a good day.  If Michael Turner rushes for 110 yards and doesn’t get into the end zone, your day wasn’t as good.

As you get further into the draft you will want to stock up on receiving backs.  You know the type.  Chester Taylor, Darren Sproles, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, Kevin Faulk and so on.  They are reliable enough receivers to assure you points when someone on your team is on a bye or is hurt.

PPR receivers are fairly easy to pick up off the waiver wire.  If a slot receiver is starting to get a lot of targets, he’s someone to look out for.  A player without a ton of skill, but who is willing to go into the soft under belly of the defense and take a beating after the catch is someone QBs love to sacrifice for first downs.

So there are a few hints and allegations.  Make of them what you will.  Here are our PPR Tiers if you need a little help drafting. And good luck!

There are many fantasy nuggets you can get out of preseason football, but you have to be selective and even then you can’t be 100% sure what you see will translate into the regular season.  Take for instance Victor Cruz.  The man has shown he can compete in the NFL.  It’s been amazing to see him take his shot and run with it.  I am not here to tell you the guy can’t play in this league, but unless you are in a deep dynasty league, there is no reason to even think about drafting him right now.

Take a look at all the receivers in front of him.  He just won’t have the opportunities it takes to be fantasy relevant.  This is usually the problem that pops up.  Can the preseason star find playing time?  Another example of this is Stephen Williams of the Cardinals.  All indications out of training camp were that he was the real deal.  Then he gets into preseason games and just continues to shine.  He even does it with the first team because Larry Fitzgerald has been hurt.  I got to see the guy play live and I believe the hype, but will he play?

Williams outplayed Early Doucet who was poised to take a step this season.  He’s right up there, but we have to look at the bigger picture.  Larry Fitzgerald will be back for opening day.  Steve Breaston may not be the next Jerry Rice, but he is a talented player who is seasoned in the offense and trusted by the coaches.  And the same holds true for Doucet as well.  Add to that the questions surrounding Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson and you just don’t have a recipe for success at this point. Williams has the ability to make an impact this season if everything falls into place, but there is no need to draft him.

Then there are players that show their stuff in preseason and at the same time find their self with an opportunity to win the starting position.  Arian Foster fits that bill to a tee, but he may be a little obvious at this point.  Jabar Gaffney may be a better example of a player having a good preseason that looks like it could translate into regular season production.  Coming into this season the Broncos wide receiver situation has been extremely difficult to decipher.  It’s still pretty muddled, but Gaffney has been targeted by Orton the most out of all his receivers.  When playing time is up for grabs like it is in Denver these preseason numbers can be helpful.  Another Bronco receiver could easily shine and move ahead of Gaffney, but right now the #1 job is his to lose.

So when looking at preseason numbers always look at their context.  Did that player gain all those yards in the 4th quarter against 3rd stringers?  Was the starter out with an injury that they will be healed from by the start of the season?  Preseason is a great time to pick up dynasty league fliers.  If I am in a deep dynasty league I am all over Stephen Williams, Victor Cruz and company! But don’t wast fliers in normal sized redraft teams on guys that wont have much of a chance to break into the starting lineup.

Week three of preseason wasn’t as enlightening as I would like it to be and week 4 will probably be just as snooze worthy, which makes me want to point out something.  And here it is.  No here –> Don’t read too much into preseason.  I’ve gone back and forth on this.  I always hear people make the brilliant argument against preseason by saying that the Lions went 4-0 in preseason and then went 0-16 in the regular season.  Yeah, that just means that wins and losses mean absolutely nothing.  And nobody in their right mind thought they did.  But what about the stats?  If Joe Blow is targeted more than Joe Schmoe does that mean he might be targeted more often during the season?  Well, yes and no.  It all has to be looked at in context and according to sample size.  If an offensive lineman tweaked his ankle, he’s out of that game even if he would gut it out in the regular season.  What does that do to the QB play?  There are just too many variables, with the biggest one being that the coaches do not want to give away their game plans.  They want to evaluate players in game settings, but they don’t want to give opponents any advantage whatsoever.  So I try to take what I can out of these games, but always try to take a step back and realize there is more to it than what meets the eye.

Before we get to the weekend notes I just wanted to tell ya’ll that I’ve updated the PPR Tiers and Non-PPR Tiers.  I will continue tweaking them as we get closer to opening day so keep checking back.  The tiers will be the most up to date, while the top 100′s and individual positions a little more behind the times.  Onto more words about football –

Knowshon Moreno: His hamstring is still hurting.  Looks like he could miss some time early.  No timetable right now of course.  I like him this year, but if he’s not healthy, he’s not healthy.  The Broncos don’t have many other options with Buckhalter also hurting and LenDale White suspended for the first 4 games.  If none of them play, it would probably end up being Lance Ball’s ball.  If you have to play him, you might want to have a fifth of whisky nearby.

Antonio Bryant: He didn’t play one down for the Bengals, but left town 8 million dollars richer.  Good work if you can get it.

Michael Bush: He had a procedure done on his fractured finger and could be available for the first week.  This is good news, but I would wait on inking him into your starting lineup for now.  This could give McFadden some traction, but I believe Bush is going to be the early down/goal line guy while McFadden will be the third down/slot receiver type. PPR = McFad, Non-PPR = Bush

Percy Harvin: He played and had a couple receptions and says he thinks his migraines are controllable.  He has quite a bit of upside with Rice out and Favre favring.  I would feel good about him as a high end WR3 right now and by the time Rice comes back Favre should have built a loving relationship with him.

Arian Foster: He went all fantasy stud on the Cowboys, rushing 18 times for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Steve Slaton got turf toe.  He has gone from late round flier to 4th round pick and I can’t see any reason not to grab him in the 4th even if it feels all icky to think others got him in the 112th (that is a big league).

Jeremiah Johnson: Have you ever killed yerself a Grizz? Well, I doubt he has, but Jeremiah could be taking over the backup RB role in Houston with Slaton getting injured.  He’s a name to keep on your radar.  If Foster were to go down in week 1 or fumble once, you might be better served picking up JJ instead of SS.

Mike Williams (SEA): It looks like Williams has won the #3 receiver position.  The Seattle receivers aren’t really worth mining for fantasy ore, but if he beats out Branch for looks it might be time to take notice in leagues smaller than 20 teams.

Mike Williams (TB): The other Mike Williams continues to play well.  This time with 3 receptions for 83 yards.  He appears to be legit, but he is still a rookie that plays for Tampa Bay.  He is worth drafting, but he will be inconsistent.  Don’t reach.

Stephen Williams: I went to the Cardinals/Bears game and Williams was about the only player worth watching while I drank my 8 dollar beer.  He looked especially good after the catch.  If Fitz or Breaston ever have to miss time Williams will be the guy.  Dynasty leaguers should be on point.

Jacoby Jones: He continues to out play Kevin Walter and I just don’t see any reason he won’t out fantasy play him as well (for the most part they go hand in hand).  He had 5 receptions for 53 yards and a TD.  We are BFF.

Larry Johnson: He had his best game of the preseason and looks like he won the backup RB spot which is a decent spot to be in with Clinton Portis a walking time injury.  LJ still makes for a decent late round flier, but not much more.

Owen Daniels: Coach Kubiak said OD would play 15-20 snaps at the most week 1.  If he is your starter it’s time to start looking for a fill in for the first couple games.

Louis Murphy: he had 87 yards and a TD and looks like the Raiders best shot at a fantasy wide receiver this season.  He showed that he could play last season with a few flashes even with the sad excuse for quarterbacks.  If Campbell can elevate that offense at all, it helps Murphy become a decent late rounder.