Fantasy Football Advice

Who is that, who is that, who is that who is going to outscore the New Orleans Saints?  Nobody, that is who or whom or dat; I dunno.  In between commercials and The CSI Players, Drew Brees picked apart the Indianapolis Colts secondary while Peyton Manning did the same except for one errant throw that went the other way for a Saints touchdown.  And that was the game. Good night, or morning, or grief.

I was fairly confident Manning would gut it out, and when he didn’t my whole world view crumbled and I spiraled into a depression of Steven Wright proportions. Well, not really.  I was surprised though.  All the talk about Manning possibly being the greatest ever will have to be put on hold.  This game doesn’t mean he can’t work his way back into that conversation, but what this game really did was shoot Drew Brees right into the middle of that great quarterback debate.  His numbers are right up there with Kurt Warner’s and after winning a Super Bowl he is assured Hall of Fame talk unless he takes the Tiger Woods/Mark McGwire path to Grandma’s house (which is also the name of a brothel/HGH bar.

This game didn’t make any huge splashes fantasy-wise, but it’s hard to believe both teams won’t be scoring points next season.  Yes, the year after a team wins, loses, or chokes away a Super Bowl they have trouble not sucking, but Manning and Brees will keep their teams competitive at the very least.  Reggie Bush will be discussed a lot this off season.  He is getting paid way too much for the numbers he puts up.  He helps the team, but not enough when that money could go elsewhere. He could land with a team that might use him more, but that would be a mistake since he’s made of peanut brittle.  Pierre Thomas is the best back in New Orleans and will continue to get the bulk of the carries and if he can stay relatively healthy, will be the guy to own.  Of course Sean Payton could use Ron Dayne on the goal line.  Joseph Addai really showed something to his detractors this year and it will be hard for Donald Brown to supplant him, but if Brown stays healthy there is no way he doesn’t dip into Addai’s numbers enough to hurt his fantasy value.  Anthony Gonzalez can’t be happy with what developed at wide receiver while he was hurting.  Pierre Garcon really developed and has earned the right to be the #2 receiver.  And with Gonzalez out of the game for so long I don’t see him taking that job back very quickly.  Brees and Manning of course are atop the fantasy heap, but I doubt I’ll own either one once again next season.  Top QB’s are around later in the draft and I’ll take a RB or three please.

The game was good, but not classic.  We might be getting a little too used to games like the Patriots/Giants and Cardinals/Steelers.  Remember when Super Bowls had the suspense of a Ashton Kutcher movie plot line?  Yes, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman hook up in the end!

So this brings us to a close of the 2009-2010 NFL season, which means we are at the beginning of the 2010-2011 season!! Tonight we are hosting our first mock draft to kick off the breaking down and over-thinking of the season to come.  So stay tuned and remember, the NFL season is never over, it just gets slightly less violent.

The day is here.  The day where football snobs like us have to listen to friends of friends or spouses of neighbors or uncles of any sort (they’re the worst) who are eating your guacamole and clogging up your toilet, pontificate on the genius of Bill Belichick and tell you that Peyton Manning’s older brother was the “good” Manning.

After two weeks of non-stop talking heads telling me absolutely nothing of any interest I still believe the Colts will win.  As do my Razzball brethren when we went over our picks in the olden days (Wednesday).

The Gresham household will have a few gallons of chili simmering on the stove a little after noon and many Goose Island IPA’s disappearing soon after.  Have a fun and unproductive Super Sunday all you crazy Razzballers!!

Here are some links about the game.  I’m sure you need a refresher on who’s playing.

The Indianapolis Star and New Orleans Times-Picayune for some reason are interested in the game today.

NBC has a nice interactive matchup thingamawhozit for today’s game.  I highly recommend checking it out.

The Top 10 Super Bowl ads according to NFL fanhouse.

The Bleacher Report gives us their top 5 biggest Super Bowl upsets.

Football Outsiders breaks down the game and I mean BREAKS down the game. They are predicting a close one.

Do you know who was just inducted into Canton?  Well, crack a book!  Or, click here, whatever.

The Shutdown Corner ranks the top 5 quarterback combos in Super Bowl history.

Carl from Aqua Teen Hunger Force gives us his Stone Cold Lock Of The Week.

Cold Hard Football Facts debunks the old saying that “Defense wins championships.”

Vinnie Iyer of the Sporting News breaks down his Super Bowl day of TV viewing.

Mike Lupica’s take on The Game.

Hello football starved readers.  Yes, we are ooohh so close to actually seeing a real NFL game.  Try to savor it, because your next official one won’t be until September 9th and if my math is correct that is exactly 14 years away.  I don’t think I can stand for such egregious and blatant disregard to my football needs.

I’m linking you up today to some Razzballistic stories that you better check out or I’ll be sad:

My favorite picture of the day has to be of Ron Jaworski giving a kid a forearm shiver via Midwest Sports Fans.

My favorite picture of the week is of Rex Ryan giving some Dolphin fans the one-fingered salute, which cost him 50 grand.  Can’t say I wouldn’t have done the same if someone spit on me, but I also wouldn’t have gone to a MMA event.

Stache Mouth Football brings us some early footage of the Mannings playing football and edits some “whinelights” of Peyton.

Rotoworld gives us 13 reasons the Colts should win and 13 reasons the Saints should win.  Can’t they make up their minds!?

Cold Hard Football Facts ranks all 43 Super Bowls.  I’ll cut to the chase and tell you they went with the Giants and Patriots at number 1 and I can’t really disagree.

Joe Theismann doesn’t seem to think too highly of Tim Tebow.  Me either for what it’s worth.

Coach Billick goes on NPR to plug his book “More Than A Game” and talk Super Bowl.  I love me some NPR so check it out.

Advanced NFL Stats discusses the overtime rules.  I think I agree that the team with home field advantage should get the ball first in OT.  Check it out and tell me what you think.

Jack Del Rio forgets he’s a coach and tells the truth about David Garrard.

USA Today takes a look back over the 2009 fantasy season and agrees with Razzball that the end of the running back is here.

CBS Sports takes a look at possible bounce back candidates for 2010 fantasy football.

The impending uncapped year will probably push many NFL players to demand trades according to the National Football Post’s Jack Bechta.

Sleeper Disclaimer: Although these are players that ought to be undervalued due to poor performance or injury in 2009, there might be a lot of hype swarming around them preseason. In this case the player has been “de-sleepered” and we don’t want them because our whole objective is to get undervalued players. Here at Razzball we will have extensive pre-draft coverage and go over all this.

Ryan was one of the most colossal disappointments from 2009. He was drafted in the 5^th-8^th rounds in most leagues and didn’t deliver anything close to that value. There were some injury issues but his final line was: 2,916 yards, 22 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, and an 80.9 quarterback rating. His touchdown to interception ratio wasn’t really worse than in his rookie year but all the other peripherals were down. His ADP in 2009 was based on the assumption that he’d improve not regress slightly.

So, why did Matt Ryan suck so bad in 2009? Part of his problem was playing so well in his rookie campaign. Teams respected his ability and game planned to try and stop the passing game. The Falcons didn’t run the ball nearly as effectively and Michael Turner had a few huge games but other than that he was not very productive or injured. Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood filled in but they did not bring enough to the table to force teams to load up the box and open up the field for Ryan and his receivers.

I am stoked about Matt Ryan for Fantasy in 2010 and you should be too. Based on his performance he should fall to the mid rounds (around the 10^th) in 12 team leagues. If that’s how things are shaping up in preseason mocks he should be your target even if you draft a better QB earlier. Why would you want to do that?

We all love a “comeback story.” The whole Fantasy world will have their eye on Ryan, paying close attention to how his season goes. If he does play well you could really score huge by trading him, particularly in Keeper Leagues. Now, you may want to hang on to him yourself and that’s fine too but it’s nice to know you’ll have that option. As I mentioned above, if Ryan is falling far enough I’m going to recommend drafting him even if you pick a solid QB earlier. The reason being you will be able to trade him for significantly more value if he starts out strong.

Do I believe that Matt Ryan will turn it around? Yes, I do. Emphatically in fact. The touchdown to interception ratio will improve. He should be a 2 to 1 ratio guy; 26 TD’s and 13 INT’s sounds about right. The yards should be in the mid to high 3,000’s (we’ll say 3,750). These are the type of numbers we expected of him in 2009 that made people pick him in the 4^th and 5^th rounds. If we can get the same potential several rounds later, why not?

The Super Bowl is near and as usual I’m ready for it way before it starts.  I’ve tried my best to stay away from the hype, but it will be hard come the weekend.  I really want to hear more about how Hank Baskett thinks his wife is hotter than Reggie Bush’s girlfriend.  And how many times Dwight Freeney was asked about his ankle at one setting (96 if you were wondering).  And I’m really glad that TMZ is there so I can know exactly what time players leave clubs.  So I’m hoping to catch up on It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia and maybe buy a fish tank instead of hearing more about Reggie Wayne’s neglected snake (no this isn’t going to be a Greg Oden post).

Here are some tasty morsels from around the league:

Brett Favre: After the Favre lost in the NFC championship game he made sure someone took a picture of his grotesque ankle so he could frame it, and I guess, place it over his mantle.  I am of two minds when it comes to these photos.  Yes, it’s amazing that he could play effectively with that deformed ankle, but at the same time, why do we need photos of it?  To prove how tough you are?  To show that if you hadn’t been hurting the outcome might have been different?  To elevate the Favrestique to God-like proportions?  Get over yourself Brett, you are great, but until you cut a finger off so you can play, keep your injury-porn to yourself.

Jay Cutler: It’s hard not to like Jay Cutler next season with Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator.  Cutler had a horrific year on many levels, but still ended up as the 12th best fantasy quarterback, ahead of the likes of future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.  I don’t have faith in Cutler as a leader and I’m not betting on him to be the Bears’ savior, but Martz’s track record for making quarterbacks fantasy studs is too good.  He took a 34 year old Jon Kitna of the Detroit Lions and made him a 4,000 yard quarterback which gave Roy Williams over 1300 yards receiving and defensive back Mike Furrey over a thousand yards!  This bodes well for Hester, Aromashodu, Knox, and even Forte who will be catching a lot of passes, but it doesn’t bode well for young Mr. Greg Olsen.  Martz must have been diddled by a tight end in his formative years, because his offense is where TE’s go to die.

Dwight Freeney: He probably won’t practice all week and then he’ll test his ankle on Sunday to see if he can go.  I reckon we’ll see him play on third downs for as long as he can and then come out as his ankle slowly expands to Favre proportions.

Jerome Harrison: The Browns GM doesn’t think Harrison has the size to be the main back in Cleveland, but didn’t have any trouble with him being overused in the last few games because he was the Browns only decent player.  Maybe they should worry about getting a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and an upgrade at every position on the team before worrying about Harrison.  They could go out looking for a larger back or give James Davis more work to offset the toll on Harrison.  But I still think it’s Harrison’s job to lose and as long as he stays healthy he should get the bulk of the carries.

Jeremy Shockey: He practiced yesterday and looks like he will play and most probably injure himself again while celebrating a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 15.

Michael Vick: He says he is a top 10 quarterback and the Eagles say they want to keep him for next season.  Both lies.  Vick should believe he’s that good, but no way do the Eagles plan on keeping him as a high paid third string QB.  The Rams are looking like the front runner in the Mike Vick sweepst . . . uh, baby shower bingo.  Vick would have to be an upgrade over the craptastic law firm of Bulger, Boller and Null.  Even if he retains his erratic QB’ing skills his legs and ability to air it out will help free up Steven Jackson.

Brandon Marshall: Josh McDaniels tipped his hand when he sat Marshall down for the last game of the season.  Everybody and their dog knows that Marshall is out of there.  Couple that with his history of ass-like attitude, or assitude, they will have to give away a player who just had 101 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: He just had surgery on his knee because the swelling had to go down before plunging the scalpel in. All realistic timetables for his full recovery have him coming back mid-season even though he seems to think he’ll jump off the operating table and do cartwheels all the way home.  Trying to project next season’s playing time for Julian Edelman and Wes Welker will be tough.  If the team and Edelman are doing well, they will probably make sure Welker is 110% before letting him play, which would probably involve a time machine of sorts.

Matt Leinart: It doesn’t look like the Cardinals will look for another QB to compete for the starting job this off season.  Ken Whisenhunt has given Leinart the thumbs up and they will live and die with him.  Leinart flashed some ability in preseason and there is no way they will give him the same responsibilities as Warner.  With Wells showing signs of running back goodness and Boldin possibly being traded, we will see a much more balanced offense out of Arizona.  Whiz took a young quarterback in Roethlisberger far and could do the same with Leinart, but don’t expect huge numbers from him just because he plays for the Cardinals.

Clinton Portis: He still hasn’t been cleared to think too hard due to his last concussion.  Even if the Redskins keep him they will have to find some insurance because there is no way he plays a whole season.  Willis McGahee is probably looking pretty good to them about now.