Fantasy Football Advice

1PM Games

Indianapolis (14^th) @ Baltimore (5^th)

Joseph Addai hurt his hand during the Patriots game but they taped it up and he came back in and played (even scored a touchdown) so I wouldn’t be too concerned about him not going this week. Donald Brown did a nice job against New England; expect him to start swiping the goal line carries. The Colts should be able to put up points against this defense but downgrading both these players.

Colts: Addai -1, Brown -2

Willis McGahee touched the football more against Cleveland that he has been lately. I’m not sure if that means anything. Ray Rice continues to be a total stud. He is relatively matchup proof because if his team falls behind they’re going to throw the football but he’s a great receiver as well. I don’t like him any more than usual in this game but I also don’t like him any less.

Ravens: Rice 0, McGahee 0

Washington (24^th) @ Dallas (10^th)

The Redskins love playing mind games with their tortured fan base. I swear they won that Broncos game just so they could go lay an egg in Dallas and destroy all false hope of a turnaround. Ladell Betts was a bright spot for Fantasy owners who were patient and stashed him. It’s almost 100% that he’s going to be the starter and Portis will be out. I’m going to downgrade him for the matchup but you should still start him.

Redskins: Betts -1

Marion Barber is just so unreliable. Even now that he’s healthy I wouldn’t feel fantastic about having him in my lineup on a weekly basis. Listen you’re stuck with him now so you’ve got to start him and hope for the best. The Redskins defense is very soft so Dallas could rebound and put points on the board this Sunday. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice are nothing more than stashes right now unless you’re super desperate. At least they have a good matchup- maybe you’ll get lucky!

Cowboys: Barber +2, Jones +1, Choice +1

Cleveland (30^th) @ Detroit (19^th)

It’s getting boring making fun of the Browns. At some point you just run out of clever analogies and catch phrases. Until and unless Jamal Lewis gets waived (in which case Harrison would become the primary guy) there will be no useful or relevant Fantasy players in Cleveland. I hate to upgrade them for this matchup but keep in mind that it’s relative to value (which, right now, is next to nothing).

Browns: Lewis +1, Harrison +1

Our loyal and astute readers will have noticed that several of my “curses” have come to fruition. The injury bug is infecting multiple backs per week. Kevin Smith was banged up earlier in the season and Maurice Morris has done well with the chances he’s gotten. Don’t be surprised if he usurps Smith at some point on the depth chart. This week there should be plenty of yards and touchdowns available in the Detroit backfield. Smith has to be a must-start on your roster and I can see Morris working his way in to your Flex.

Lions: Smith +3, Morris +4

San Francisco (3^rd) @ Green Bay (4^th)

It doesn’t matter who Frank Gore is facing. Such a beast. Gotta downgrade him for facing the Packers but DO NOT sit him. I used to lust Glen Coffee as a stash; now he’s the one who can’t stay healthy. These are always the most awkward breakups: “Um, yeah, Glen? Look, I have no tolerance for Sleepers who can’t stay healthy. All you’re doing is warming the bench. I’m sorry but you can’t be my back-up back anymore, I have to move on. Don’t cry; I’m sure the future is bright for you in the UFL. Who knows, maybe even the CFL someday!”

49’ers: Gore

First let me say that Troy Aikman is probably my favorite analyst even though I hated his guts because he played for the Cowboys. But this past Sunday he reminded us during the telecast that Ahman Green played for the Packers before and he was pretty good. Really, Troy? Is that a fact? Look we all remember this guy, don’t go on and on about it anymore or I’ll flip out. I’m downgrading Ryan Grant because of the sorta tough defense. No good stashes here- I wouldn’t want to own Ahman Green or Brandon Jackson even if Grant gets injured. I really didn’t believe he’s going to hang on to this job all season but he is.

Packers: Grant -3

Buffalo (32^nd) @ Jacksonville (22^nd)

It’s time for Marshawn to rack up some yards against a sub-standard defense. Gotta put up the numbers if you want that shiny new contract in the offseason! Fred Jackson actually played more on Sunday than he has recently. No idea what that’s supposed to mean but there it is. I’d enthusiastically start Lynch and cautiously Flex Jackson if you have to.

Bills: Lynch +2, Jackson +3

Pocket Hercules should carry a lot of Fantasy owners to glory on Sunday. There’s not really much to say- perhaps the best running back in the NFL going against the absolute worst rush defense in the league. There’s just no insight, it is what it is.

Jaguars: Jones-Drew +10,000,000,000

Pittsburgh (1^st) @ Kansas City (27^th)

Rashard Mendenhall has become the uncontested #1 back in Pittsburgh. Who’s Willie Parker again? Did he retire already? Really? I love Mendenhall to have a 15+ point day with plenty of room for upside. Multiple touchdowns wouldn’t surprise me, nor would a point output in the mid 20’s.

Steelers: Mendenhall +4

Charles Haley you’re a tricky one! Gonna have to watch you in the future. He threw all these ridiculous innuendos out there about how Kolby Smith might start. I like the gamesmanship but unfortunately you’re still the Chiefs and no one cares. Well, some people care. For instance my buddy who Flexed Smith because he believed you. It matters to him and he hates you and everything you love now. Nice work. Depending on your depth it might be tough to sit Jamaal Charles this week. He’s just pretty studly in general, especially for PPR. Smith needs to be on the bench until he gets a real opportunity.

Chiefs: Charles -3, Smith -5

Seattle (11^th) @ Minnesota (6^th)

Don’t be intimidated by the matchup and talk yourself in to sitting Forsett. I really feel like he’s going to win this job for good. I have been man-crushing him for so long. Actually seeing this come to fruition is what ugly girls must feel like when they actually get asked to the Prom. Of course the ugly guy asking them probably feels the same way they do. Where am I going with this? Oh yeah, Play Forsett!

Seahawks: Forsett -2

They should change all the Chuck Norris phrases and replace his name with Adrian Peterson’s. One of the analysts on NFL Network (can’t remember which one), just yells out “HE’S A MAN!!!” every time an A.P. highlight comes on. He’s not “scurred” that the Seahawks defense is decent and you shouldn’t be either.

Vikings: Peterson 0, Taylor -2

Atlanta (26^th) @ NY Giants (13^th)

This is really a defining game for the Giants defense. The Falcons are a middle of the road offense so we should find out whether the G-men are going to turn things around or not. If you were cagey enough to stash/claim Snelling off waivers you have to start him unless you’re super deep. I don’t think you can play Jerious Norwood in any league but in deeper formats I’d try to find room for him because there’s a ton of upside.

Falcons: Snelling -1, Norwood -2

Remember that multiple touchdown game I’ve been calling for? OK maybe this will be the week. He is a must start and Bradshaw’s someone you can Flex if you need to. I don’t foresee any issues with them piling up yards and touchdowns.

Giants: Jacobs +3, Bradshaw +3

New Orleans (20^th) @ Tampa Bay (31^st)

I think we’ve found a game where I can enthusiastically recommend starting all three of these guys. There’s almost always an odd man out and it’s difficult to predict who (last week it was Thomas). The second half, in particular, should be a running back’s wet dream- huge lead, horrible run defense.

Saints: Thomas +3, Bush +2, Bell +4

I wish someone could come up with a formula to predict whether Cadillac Williams is going to fall apart or have a great game. There’s really no logic behind it whatsoever. This should be as good an opportunity as any for him to put up digits. Derrick Ward is dead to me.

Buccaneers: Williams +2, Ward +1

4 PM Games

Arizona (8^th) @ St. Louis (28^th)

Ken Whisenhut said that he has no plans to change the current splitting situation. It should be a great time to own both Wells and Hightower down the stretch run. Here’s an example of a great matchup that makes both these players must starts.

Cardinals: Hightower +4, Wells +4,

Who’s doing more with less out there? Nobody. Steven Jackson is just the man, flat out. I’m not sure there are any worthwhile stashes in St. Louis because none of them would be effective.

Rams: Jackson 0

San Diego (23^rd) @ Denver (12^th)

LaDanian Tomlinson has really turned it on the past few weeks. Darren Sproles is becoming less and less attractive as a flex option. San Diego’s offense continues to put up points regardless of the defense they’re facing. The Broncos haven’t been nearly as stout as of late but they’re at home in this contest and really need a win. I’m going to downgrade Tomlinson slightly and I wouldn’t recommend starting Sproles (not so much because of the matchup but because his role has diminished)

Chargers: Tomlinson -1, Sproles -2

It’s tough to tell how the Broncos are going to divvy up the touches. Correll Buckhalter looked like he was going to be the main guy after coming back from injury. Then he was essentially benched on Sunday after an early fumble and did nothing for Fantasy owners (including myself). Moreno had a great game, getting all the opportunities. I would enthusiastically start him and cautiously put Buckhalter in there as a flex in 12 team if you need him.

Broncos: Moreno +2, Buckhalter +1

New York Jets (18^th) @ New England (17^th)

This is a huge game for both football teams; especially the Jets. Thomas Jones is a no-brainer; he’s been one of the most consistent and productive fantasy players this season. Shonn Greene’s nothing special in this matchup- it’s not horrible for him but don’t expect a double digit outing.

Jets: Jones +1, Greene +1

It looks like Sammy Morris could be back soon but it’s doubtful he’ll return this week. Look for Maroney to get the bulk of the carries. Without Kris Jenkins the Jets have been unable to stop the run consistently (or put pressure on the quarterback, for that matter). Maroney’s a solid start and as always Kevin Faulk can be a respectable fill-in for PPR. As an aside he has the most rushing yards in NFL history without a 100 yard game (he had 79 last week and he might’ve gotten there if they kept feeding him the rock).

Patriots: Mauroney +1, Faulk +1

Cincinnati (2^nd) @ Oakland (29^th)

I’m not putting Benson in because he’s almost certainly not going to play. Bernard Scott is an excellent start in this game if you’re lucky enough to have stashed him. I really don’t know how much Larry Johnson will see the field (my guess is 10 straightforward carries) and I wouldn’t feel fantastic about playing him unless you’re really stuck.

Bengals: Scott +5, Johnson 0

I hope you don’t need a productive week out of any of these players. They should all be riding the bench on your team. This has become akin to the three-headed sloth Tampa Bay trotted out there at the beginning of the season. They have all been rendered useless in my mind.

Raiders: Fargas -3, Bush -3, MacFadden -3

Sunday Night Game

Philadelphia (9^th) @ Chicago (21^st)

Even though Westbrook didn’t play McCoy had an unproductive Sunday. He’ll almost certainly turn it around. The doctors are optimistic about Westbrook’s chances of coming back soon but I doubt we’ll see him out there this week. Unless you hear that he’s going to play and see significant action I’d sit him. McCoy should be an enthusiastic start regardless.

Eagles: McCoy +4

Forte’s the only guy getting touches in the Chicago backfield. I thought at some point that Garrett Wolfe might end up getting a heavy dose of touches but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Forte’s clearly a must-start in this game. Hopefully Cutler doesn’t get pick happy again and relegate the offense to mediocrity.

Bears: Forte -2

Monday Night Game

Tennessee (16^th) @ Houston (14^th)

Chris Johnson could have a field day in this contest. Houston’s defense has gotten better as the season’s progressed but I don’t see them shutting CJ down in this one. Look for LenDale White to continue to be a colossal disappointment. He could be Sleeper next season depending on who he signs with in free agency.

Titans: Johnson +2, White +1

This game should tell us a lot about what’s going to happen going forward in the Houston backfield. Slaton owners are praying that he’s regained Kubiak’s trust enough to be the feature guy and Moats owners are hoping that it becomes a split situation. Slaton should be a respectable flex guy for you; be much more careful with Moats. I wouldn’t play him unless the word on the street is that he’ll see the football a lot on Sunday.

Texans: Slaton 0, Moats -1

Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub have schedules that fantasy footballers would have trouble drawing up for themselves. Matt Ryan and Tony Romo have schedules that only troubled fantasy footballers would draw up for themselves.  If I could get Schaub or even old man Warner for the playoff run I would.  These numbers are against QB’s, but work for WR’s as well.  Let’s just say AJ and Fitz might be ok.

Hopefully this chart will give you a gauge to make some last second trades.  If you have any questions about the numbers toss them in the comments.

After the break you’ll see the same chart, but in order of best playoff schedule for QB’s week 14-16. 

Read the rest of this entry »

So, apart from Belichick’s gamble creating the greatest debate since Wittgenstein vs. Popper, the big news from last week was the slew of running back injuries. “But Razzball,” you say, “this is a passing matchup article — why are you bringing up running backs?”

Here’s why — teams that were either relying heavily on one back (like Atlanta or Cincinnati) or splitting carries between a couple backs (like Philadelphia or Miami) must now shift some offensive emphasis to their passing game. It’s unrealistic to expect these teams to hand the ball of 25-30 to the 2nd string RB (or some combination of the 2nd and 3rd RBs), so naturally, we can expect to see a small but still significant boost in passing attempts. This is especially important in games these teams lead by several touchdowns, as they may continue to throw more than usual in order to save wear and tear on their running backs.

So, yes, be happy that you snagged Jason Snelling or Justin Forsett. But also keep in mind the potential increase in value for the quarterbacks and receivers on these teams, and adjust your player evaluations accordingly.

Thursday game

Miami (27th) @ Carolina (4th)

Go ahead and cross Chad Henne off your “Has fantasy value in 2009″ list. He’s like a poor man’s rookie Matt Ryan — surprisingly competent, but just can’t be counted on for the yardage and TD’s necessary for fantasy success. Even with Ronnie Brown out, I’m not sure that throwing 5-10 more times per game really boosts Henne’s value, especially not against the Panthers’ 4th ranked pass defense. Davone Bess did total 72 yards on 4 catches, so he’s worth a look in better matchups than this.

MIA: Henne -2, Bess -1, Camarillo -2, Hartline -2, Ginn -2

Consider last week’s performance to be the realistic upside for the Carolina pass offense. Not a lot of yardage for Delhomme, but efficient in completions and touchdowns considering just 24 attempts. Miami has a putrid secondary, so look for a similar result this week. Muhammed led in receiving yards but Steve Smith caught both of Delhomme’s touchdowns. Kellen Winslow had a very nice day against the Miami defense so Rosario’s worth a shot in very deep leagues.

CAR: Delhomme +1, Smith +2, Muhammed +1, Rosario +1

Sunday 1 PM games

New Orleans (20th) @ Tampa Bay (15th)

Probably expected a bit more than 223 yards from Drew Brees against STL, didn’t you? I’d be more concerned about the 7 interceptions in the last 2 weeks. Unless you’ve got a straight up deal for Brady or Manning, however, he’s still your best option, and Tampa’s secondary is middling. I still think Colston is the best red zone target for the Saints so ignore the 2 straight supbar weeks. Devery Henderson had a better week than Colston. Meachem caught a touchdown on his only reception, bringing his year totals to 14 receptions and 4 touchdowns. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option. Shockey’s 105 yard game in Week 7 is starting to look like the outlier in his season, but he’s still a safe option for 50ish yards.

NO: Brees +1, Colston +1, Henderson +1, Meachem 0, Shockey +1

Against a terrible Miami secondary, Josh Freeman was….meh. To be fair, he’s severely lacking in downfield weapons, but our purpose here isn’t to be fair in our player evaluations — it’s to brutally dissect why you shouldn’t ever think about starting Freeman on your team. The upside? Well, he’s not scared of throwing to Kellen Winslow. For the second straight week, more than half of Freeman’s completions were to TE’s or RB’s. Stovall’s worth keeping an eye on in very, very deep TD-heavy leagues. It’s too bad there’s not more WR’s of interest here, because the Saints secondary is fubar — they just signed Chris McAlister as a stopgap measure. McAlister was once a good DB, so you know there’s a reason he was available halfway through the season. Darren Sharper will almost certainly return by Week 12 so the Saints secondary should improve a bit.

TB: Freeman +1, Stovall +1, Stroughter 0, Winslow +2

Atlanta (28th) @ New York Giants (2nd)

Matt Ryan at least cracked 200 yards against the Panthers. The Giants defense finally seemed to get back on track against San Diego (Rivers had 209 yards and 2 INT’s, though he did get a couple second half TD’s). I like Roddy White’s chances of a good game here, but I think the Giants defense may force Ryan into at least a couple errors. Assuming Turner doesn’t play, the Falcons may go with a slightly more pass heavy attack, which should boost yardage totals for White and Gonzalez.

ATL: Ryan -1, White +1, Gonzalez 0

After 3 subpar weeks in a row, Eli finally got back on track against…San Diego’s 11th ranked pass defense, surprisingly. 200+ yards, 2 TD’s, and best of all, no INT’s against a couple athletic and talented corners. This week’s matchup is much more favorable, though if it gets cold and windy for Sunday’s game you should probably temper expectations just a little. Steve Smith remains just a notch above Manningham and Nicks who seem to swap control of the #2 spot on a weekly basis. Kevin Boss only had 2 receptions but one was for a touchdown, but Atlanta has been holding TE’s in check so I’m not sure he’s a great option here.

NYG: Manning +2, Smith +2, Nicks +1, Manningham +1, Boss -1

Buffalo (9th) @ Jacksonville (26th)

Yeesh. I’m a big believer in the idea that continuity is more important for the passing game than the rushing game. Put a reasonably talented RB behind some guys who can block and he’ll figure it out. But there’s too many ways for a passing offense to get off track, and switching your QB (again) and head coach (even assuming the playbook remains the same) isn’t generally a recipe for success for a group that wasn’t terribly successful in the first place. So, what’s the status? Well, word is that Fitzpatrick will take over as QB. Earlier in the season, it was Fitzpatrick who seemed to light a fire under Lee Evans, so there’s at least hope that he won’t suffer from the changes. Fitzpatrick and Terrell Owens are not great options at this point, and time is running out on their chances to get it together.

BUF: Fitzpatrick -1, Evans 0, Owens -1

Given how bad Buffalo’s run defense is, I don’t expect a lot of pass attempts out of Garrard. Sims-Walker should get enough looks to make him playable, but you’d have to think that the Jacksonville will see what Chris Johnson did against the Bills and hand off to MJD as many times as they can. I’d avoid anyone beyond Sims-Walker.

JAC: Garrard -1, Sims-Walker 0, Holt -2

San Francisco (29th) @ Green Bay (6th)

Suddenly there’s plenty of open seats on the Alex Smith bandwagon. Go back a few weeks in the archives here and remember what we said about the risk of playing waiver wire QB’s over proven starters. Most concerning was that Vernon Davis, previously immune to poor passing days from the 49ers, totaled just 16 yards and no touchdowns. For now assume it was just a blip on the radar. Crabtree continues to confirm his talent and #1 role in SF — he’s playable as a WR2 even here.

SF: Smith -2, Crabtree -1, Davis -1, Morgan -2

Aaron Rodgers had a competent if not exciting day against Dallas — he didn’t reach 200 yards and threw just 1 TD, but he also didn’t throw any picks, and added a rushing TD to pad his totals. The 49ers don’t bring as much pressure or cover receivers as well as the Cowboys, so I’m expecting a total more in line with Rodgers’ usual production. Driver and Jennings are excellent plays here, but James Jones shot at being the clear 3rd option is gone with Jordy Nelson’s involvement. The TE production remains split between Lee and Havnar making both virtually worthless.

GB: Rodgers +2, Driver +2, Jennings +2, Jones/Nelson 0, Lee/Havnar -1

Seattle (22nd) @ Minnesota (23rd)

The Vikings defense gave up some surprising yardage to the Lions, so there’s no reason to think that the Seahawks won’t be able to throw against them as well. The big question, of course, is what the hell happened to Nate Burleson? He was targeted just 5 times (Housh had 17 targets) and didn’t catch a single pass. It’s worth noting, however, that in the first Seahawks-Cardinals game Burleson was also targeted 5 times, so I have a feeling it has more to do with Arizona rolling pass coverage his way and Hasselbeck hitting the uncovered receivers than it does any hidden injury or change in WR roles. I still think Burleson’s a better producer than Housh from here forward. Carlson should be in line for a nice game as the Lions TE’s combined for 6 catches, 56 yards, and TD against the Vikes.

SEA: Hasselbeck +1, Burleson +1, Houshmandzadeh 0, Carlson +1

So Favre did (more than) double his yardage from the first Lions matchup, but only tossed 1 TD pass, and it didn’t go to Rice, Harvin, Berrian, Shiancoe, or anyone you had any chance of finding on a fantasy roster. Dugan howzat? Chalk it up to the random nature of football and move on. Rice horded over half of Favre’s yardage to himself, but I think you’ll see Favre spread it around a bit more against a (somewhat) better secondary. Berrian had some red zone targets so don’t forget about him.

MIN: Favre +1, Rice +1, Harvin 0, Berrian 0, Shiancoe 0

Indianapolis (16th) @ Baltimore (13th)

The Ravens pass defense is rapidly climbing the rankings but…so what? The Patriots have been ranked near the top all year in pass defense and it just didn’t matter. Yeah, a couple picks, but 300+ yards and 4 TD’s more than makes up for it. I don’t see that kind of shootout here, but Manning, Wayne, and Dallas Clark are all must starts against any D. Collie and Garcon continue to split value; last week, Collie caught more balls but Garcon snagged the TD. I still give the edge to Collie for now, but this may not be the matchup to take a chance on either of them if you can avoid it. Terrell Suggs will be out for BAL so the defense may not be quite as tough as they’ve been in recent weeks.

IND: Manning 0, Wayne +1, Clark +1, Collie 0, Garcon -1

Everyone expected a little more out of Baltimore’s offense against Cleveland, but the Browns defense played them fairly tough, and the Browns offense was so inept that there wasn’t much reason to take chances. I doubt we’ll see the Ravens rush 36 times and pass just 19 times (including Ray Rice’s wounded duck) against the Colts this week. The Colts are probably a little better in pass defense than their current ranking — giving up that much yardage to Brady and Moss is bound to skew the numbers for a little bit. Derrick Mason and Todd Heap both made some nice grabs last week but I’d bet on Mason being the one to continue his success.

BAL: Flacco -1, Mason 0, Heap -1

Washington (1st) @ Dallas (18th)

The Cowboy’s pass defense is another that finds itself improving statistically each week, and if you think Jason Campbell + imposing pass rush = offensive success, that’s just fuzzy math. Campbell did total nearly 200 yards against the Broncos, but he’s returned to (or stuck with?) his habit of dinking and dunking passes to every TE and RB on the roster. This is a terrible matchup for Campbell, and by extension, Santana Moss, who generally is the only pass receiver of note in Washington. Fred Davis isn’t Chris Cooley but he’s playable — however I worry that his questionable pass-blocking skills may mean fewer snaps for him this week.

WAS: Campbell -2, Moss -2, Davis -1

Last week the Redskins furthered Denver’s woes, taking advantage of the loss of Kyle Orton and coming back to win. The total numbers looked pretty good for the Redskins D, but take a closer look — Orton nearly hit 200 yards in just a half game (and Brandon Marshall was absolutely abusing the Washington secondary). It wasn’t until Chris Simms took over the helm that the Redskins “clamped down”. Romo did just fine against a talented Packers secondary and I don’t see him having a problem here. Teams have been gameplanning around shutting down Miles Austin and Jason Witten (thus the upspike in Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton’s production), but I think Austin’s yards-after-catch skills will net him some big gains here.

DAL: Romo 0, Austin +1, Williams 0, Crayton 0, Witten +1

Pittsburgh (12th) @ Kansas City (24th)

No two ways about it — Roethlisberger looked terrible against the Bengals. 40 pass attempts to get 174 yards is not good. But while Cincy’s D looks bad statistically and can be kind of good, the KC defense is just as bad on the field as they are on paper. They looked alright last week against JaMarcus Russell and Bruce Gradkowski but basically every defense looks good against the Raiders. The only risk here is whether the Steelers will shift to a run-heavy attack. As such, you may want to temper expectations in terms of yardage, but I’d still look for the Steelers to take a few shots downfield with Holmes and Wallace, and target Ward and Miller in the redzone.

PIT: Roethlisberger +1, Holmes +1, Ward +1, Miller +1, Wallace 0

There’s the stinker from Cassel: just over 200 yards, no TD’s, and a pick to boot. And to top things off, the Chiefs just lost Bowe for 4 games. Chambers steps into the #1 role. You’ll see lots of recommendations for Lance Long, but I can’t help but wonder if the Chiefs will move Mark Bradley into the #2 WR spot and leave Long in the slot (hey-o!). Still, he should get a few more targets over the next 4 games. Fortunately, you should not be tempted to start any of them against the Steelers, even sans-Polamalu, so you have a week to see how things play out.

KC: Cassel -2, Chambers -1, Bradley -2, Long -1

Cleveland (19th) @ Detroit (32nd)

Holy smokes. Can we just move on? The only pass-involved Brown with a pulse was Josh Cribbs; apparently Brady Quinn found this insufferable and used his final playcall of the Monday night game to sabotage the single remaining interesting player. Who’s looking forward to Derek Anderson in another week or two? Here’s a fun stat — in the last 12 months, no Browns RB or WR has scored a touchdown.

CLE: The Field -10

Signs of life from the Lions pass offense! The Vikings secondary isn’t great, but still, you can’t feel too bad about Stafford spreading the ball around, hitting Calvin Johnson 8 times, Northcutt 6 times, and his TE (Pettigrew and Heller, no sign of FitzSimmons this week) 6 times. The Browns defense was motivated on Monday night against a division rival, but an early game against Detroit that will be televised virtually nowhere? I like it. I think Megatron should have massive success against the Browns secondary, Northcutt’s not a bad low-end option, and I still believe Pettigrew is the TE to have out of the group.

DET: Stafford +1, Johnson +2, Northcutt +1, Pettigrew +1

4 PM games

Arizona (30th) @ St. Louis (25th)

Cake. Walk. Excepting his 5-INT game (and yes, I know that’s one huge exception), Warner has been incredibly reliable, and while you’re always holding your breath when he gets hit, you have to love this matchup. Larry Fitzgerald? Yes please! Anquan Boldin? Don’t mind if I do! Steve Breaston? Go for it! Early Doucet? Just kidding. Go back to the bench, Early. It’s an added bonus if the Rams offense looks as frisky as it did last week against the Saints so the Cardinals keep throwing right to the end.

ARI: Warner +2, Fitzgerald +2, Boldin +2, Breaston +2

Apparently they’ll let just about anybody try to knock off the Saints these days. I know the Cards are ranked 30th in pass defense, but I’m not convinced their secondary is quite as rough as the injury-depleted Saints unit was last week. Still, if you need a stopgap measure, this isn’t a terrible matchup for Bulger and Avery (just remember what we’ve said about managing risk in regards to playing weekly matchups over proven starters). Brandon Gibson played great in place of Keenan Burton (out for the season), but before you consider starting him, just remember that for most of the year there was barely enough pass offense to make Donnie Avery startable.

STL: Bulger +1, Avery +1, Gibson 0

Cincinnati (21st) @ Oakland (14th)

I was right on the money in predicting 180 yards for Palmer last week (though I did figure on a touchdown which he didn’t get) — not great, but completing 60% and not tossing a pick against Pittsburgh is pretty good too. Oakland’s pass defense isn’t as good as their rating; it’s at least partially a product of teams preferring to run on the terrible Raiders run defense, and avoiding Asomugha. The Bengals won’t want to run too much with Benson and risk overworking Bernard Scott, so I’m expecting a nice day from Palmer. Asomugha may suppress Ochocinco’s totals just a bit but he’s still worth playing. Coles has stepped nicely into the #2 role (finally) and is a strong WR2 play here. The Bengals released Ben Utecht, for any of you playing in 5-TE leagues.

CIN: Palmer +1, Ochocinco 0, Coles +1

Russell got benched (again), and the QB who replaced him was arguably worse (at least Russell hadn’t turned the ball over yet). Gradkowski is only marginally interesting, in that he may be able to get the ball more consistently to Zach Miller. Emphasis on “may”. This is a bad situation and it’s not getting any better — treat it like the Raiders all have the H1N1 virus (actually, that would explain a lot).

OAK: Gradkowski -2, Miller -2, Are you really going to make me list the Oakland WR’s?

San Diego (11th) @ Denver (5th)

Rivers was excellent against the Eagles blitz attack, hitting 80% completion and getting sacked just twice. Weirdly, he did it while all but ignoring Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates was the beneficiary and he may be in line for another nice game if Denver can bring pressure on Rivers. Jackson is still too dominant physically to bench but Champ Bailey is as smart as they come so be prepared for another subpar game from V-Jax (hopefully better than last week, anyway). Floyd has yet to put together a game that will make him worth starting in most leagues, and Naanee’s involvement may keep Floyd’s value from increasing much.

SD: Rivers 0, Jackson -1, Floyd 0, Naanee 0, Gates +1

Orton’s status is the issue here. As of Wednesday he was not practicing (Simms was taking first team snaps) but said he intended to play if possible. While it probably won’t be as bad as Simms getting tossed into the middle of a game, you have to figure that whether it’s Orton or Simms, the Denver pass offense is going to suffer. Brandon Marshall is still playable as a WR2 here, but I am a little afraid of the situation and would definitely avoid playing Royal. If you’re desperate, an argument can be made for playing Scheffler as the Chargers have a history of giving up big plays to TE’s.

DEN: Orton/Simms -2, Marshall -1, Royal -2, Scheffler 0

New York Jets (3rd) @ New England (7th)

The Patriots lost the first Jets game, they lost last week to Indy, and all their defense has been hearing on ESPN is how their coach doesn’t trust them. Think they’ll be a little motivated? I do not like this matchup at all for Sanchez, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish with fewer than 200 yards and a couple picks. Cotchery is ok here but I’m not sure you want to bank on a big play from Braylon Edwards to salvage his day. Dustin Keller is getting more and more involved, but NE has a habit of shutting down TE’s so this may not be the week to rely on him.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1

This is not the same Pats offense that couldn’t crack 300 total yards against the Jets in Week 2. New York’s secondary is good (we all know about Revis by now), but other than possibly a yardage hit to Moss, don’t downgrade your Patriot starters much if any. At this point, beyond Moss and Welker, the ball is spread around too much for fantasy relevance. Ben Watson remains a marginal fantasy TE.

NE: Brady 0, Moss -1, Welker 0, Watson 0

8 PM game

Philadelpha (10th) @ Chicago (8th)

The best case for any commitment to the rush in Philly would be a healthy Westbrook and McCoy, splitting carries in order to keep both of them fresh. As it is, with Westbrook still out (and out for the forseeable future), Andy Reid has no qualms about throwing the ball on nearly every down and every situation. This will result in the occasional turnover, but you can’t argue with the yardage. DeSean Jackson actually turned in a normal WR line (8 catches, 91 yards), Maclin remains a nice #2 WR, and Avant stole the show with 156 receiving yards. Avant’s still a clear #3 in that offense though, and probably the 4th option when you include Celek. Chicago “shut down” the 49ers pass offense — big whoop. Play your Eagles here, ignore the 8th place ranking.

PHI: McNabb +1, Jackson +1, Maclin 0, Avant 0, Celek +1

I’m pretty curious about this matchup. I know that Cutler wasn’t responsible for all 5 of his interceptions last week, but it’s not as if he’s known for having the poise of Philip Rivers, and the Eagles will definitely sell out to put pressure on him. Cutler’s success is going to rest heavily on the play of the offensive line and the blitz pickup by the RB’s and TE’s. But if the Eagles get in his face, you know he’s willing to take the risky shots downfield that result in turnovers. Forte and Olsen may end up with a good bit of receiving yardage again if the Bears use the screen and dumpoff to combat the Eagles blitz.

CHI: Cutler -1, Hester -1, Bennett -1, Knox -2, Olsen 0

Monday game

Tennessee (31st) @ Houston (17th)

Can it be said that the Tennessee passing game was effective last week? Does dumping it off to Chris Johnson and letting him run through the defense count? CJ caught 9 balls; nobody else caught more than 2. Houston’s defense is a little more balanced that Buffalo’s, so you’ll likely see some more passes to the WR’s, but other than deep, TD-heavy leagues, I don’t see a lot of value in Nate Washington or Kenny Britt the rest of the year. There will be big pass plays occasionally as defenses sell out against the run, but not frequently enough to count on.

TEN: Young 0, Washington 0, Britt -1, Scaife 0

This ought to be a nice return to action for the Texans after their bye. Andre Johnson should shred the Titans secondary, Kevin Walter is a strong WR2 play especially in PPR leagues, and Jacoby Jones is worth a look in deep leagues or return yardage leagues. Dreessen caught a couple balls in Week 9 but it’s clear they aren’t going to try to make him something he isn’t (namely, Owen Daniels).

HOU: Schaub +2, Johnson +2, Walter +2, Jones +1

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Well, the trade deadline has passed or is very near in your leagues.  I thought I’d give one more schedule breakdown for running backs for those of you looking to wheel and deal.

Matt Forte’s schedule is still shattastic. Even my man Ray Rice gets to face Pittsburgh twice and Green Bay once. Ye ol’ Tom Jones has the best overall schedule to finish up the fantasy season.  I don’t like him, but you can’t knock his schedule or Shonn Greene’s. Cedric Benson has a nice schedule as well and if he’s not hurt I like him more than TJ.  After Kevin Smith’s game against Cleveland it may be time to toss him on the scrap heap, kinda like you did after Chasing Amy.

If you have any questions at all about all these numbers shoot them at me in the comments.  They were derived from the post just below there a bit. I’ll have the passing D chart up this afternoon.

After the break you’ll see the same chart, but in order of best playoff schedule for RB’s week 14-16.  Be prepared to have your mind blown!

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Here are the passing and rushing defensive rankings and matchups for this week. Take a look and if you have any questions be sure to ask!

Passing Defenses Week 10:

Rushing Defenses Week 10: