Fantasy Football Advice

Let’s remind ourselves of the formula:

Sleeper Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Let the bye weeks begin! This is where we start to separate the men/women from the boys/girls. Depth finally starts to pay off or punish depending on how savvy you’ve been.   Again all the players I’m going to talk about here I look at within a “buy low” framework.

Tier I

Calvin Johnson 19 (10+9) – Still hasn’t put up the big digits. It’s going to happen, people. In case you haven’t noticed the Lions offense is better than it was last season and while Stafford is no world-beater he’s a lot better than the chump-fest they were rocking at QB in ’08.

Steve Slaton 17 (9+8) – Leading off the same way I did last week. I’ll stop singing the same tune once these players start to deliver and then you won’t be able to get them any more. How can Slaton not produce this season? I’m not even sure if that’s a rhetorical question.

Roddy White 17 (9+8) – Come on Roddy this was supposed to be your huge breakout season! He hasn’t delivered the way anyone anticipated yet but the offense has looked really good so far in Atlanta. Expect him to start turning it on. Unless there’s something I don’t know. I hate secrets.

Wes Welker 16 (7+9) – Another guy I had last week. He didn’t play again so his value’s still got to be depressed. The injury concerns might be enough to scare his owner. In PPR he is going to be an absolute monster from here on out. I really believe that.

Brandon Marshall 16 (9+7) – Eddie Royal has been awful. Marshall is looking better and better. This might be the last week you have a chance to buy somewhat low on him.

Donovan McNabb 16 (8+8) – That Offense is explosive, Kevin Kolb proved that. After this bye week he’s got Tampa Bay then Oakland, two cupcakes. Then the schedule gets tougher. But right now I feel like you can get him cheap and he will put up solid numbers if he stays healthy.

Jericho Cotchery 16 (7+9) – I thought Stuckey would be vulturing more targets than he has been. It is still too early to tell but Cotchery may really be emerging as a 2^nd Tier receiver.

Tier II

Eli Manning 16 (8+8) – I want to say something crazy, like that Eli Manning will have more fantasy points than Tom Brady this season. As an Eagles fan I hate to say it but I think he’s starting to come in to his own. He’s got the best O-Line in football, a great running game, and better receivers than we thought. He is a game manager so I don’t see his ceiling being as high as some other QB’s but I’m starting to respect Eli more and more.

Percy Harvin 15 (8+7) – You’re probably getting sick of Percy. I’m going to keep singing his praises until he gets too expensive.

Ahmad Bradshaw 15 (8+7) Another player I won’t shut up about. Jacobs looks like a young Jamal Lewis except Jacobs refuses to keep his feet moving. I don’t know where his explosiveness relative to size went but he just looks like he’s moving in slow-motion out there. Meanwhile Ahmad Bradshaw looks like a total stud and will be huge if/when he becomes the primary back.

Jerome Harrison 15 (8+7) – He played really well in his first start with Lewis out. He’ll be relegated to backup duty but with how washed up Jamal looks don’t be surprised to see Harrison there by the end of the season. James Davis has been everyone’s favorite Sleeper, so much so that I think he’s getting over-valued.

Glen Coffee 15 (7+8) – This Gore injury might turn out to be nagging. Obviously we all know that Coffee is the starter for the next few weeks but he might be worth “over-paying” for because there’s a chance he’ll be the #1 there long term.

Tashard Choice 14 (8+6) – A really difficult call here. Both the backs in Dallas he’s competing with have injury concerns and histories of not staying healthy. There is a chance that Choice could end up getting some games in as the #1 guy and as he showed last week he can be a playmaker.

Tier III

Donnie Avery 14 (7+7) – Laurent Robinson looked so studly. St. Louis is such a train wreck. Last year Avery was a relatively productive young player who looked like he could have potential. I don’t know what to think of him now, especially since Kyle Boller is the field general. But I guess every team has to have a #1 receiver even when it doesn’t look like they do.

Jamaal Charles 14 (8+6) – If LJ stays healthy all year I’ll be surprised. Charles was a little dinged up early in the season but he looks healthy and is playing some good football. He is another very popular stash of mine.

Bryant Johnson 13 (7+6) — He’s getting a lot of looks on the other side of Megatron.  The Lions’ D will get them in some deep holes and Stafford will have to try to throw them out of them.

Andre Caldwell 13 (7+6) — Palmer equated Caldwell’s role in the offense to what T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s used to be.  That is good news for Mr. Caldwell.

You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew

We are three weeks into the season and the target numbers are piling up so it’s time to sift through them for some gems or cubic zirconium.

Wide Receivers

Johnny Knox: In the first 3 weeks his targets have gone 4, 10, 3.  Hmmm, not the consistency you want to see.  Hester isn’t going anywhere and Bennett is a possession receiver. Knox might end up being a Devery Henderson home run type and this isn’t the Saints. Ok, he’s above Randy Moss because I liked the title, sue me.

Randy Moss: He still leads the world with 47 targets while bringing in 26 of those.  With Welker hurting, his targets have been many, but it’s not like he’ll start getting snubbed for Dubya Dubya when he returns.

Nate Burleson: He has 34 targets and is the only receiver with 10 or over for each game.  That consistency is nice to have.  These numbers give me a little more confidence in recommending him, especially for bye-week fodder.

Percy Harvin: His targets have gone up each week from 6 to 7 to 10 which is understandable and encouraging.  He was riding the hype machine this preseason and it looks like for good reason.

Jericho Cotchery: Sanchez and Cotchery, by day a blossoming QB/WR duo, by night, masked crime fighters prowling New York City streets saving babies from fires and old ladies from hoodlums.  Oh and Cotchery has seen an uptick in targets, not by the mafia, but from Sanchez.  This duo should continue to connect. (more…)

The men on the wire jump off tonight.  Get out your big, soft, trampoliney things with the bright red bullseyes on them.

Glen Coffee: I know this is a no-brainer, but just in case you were on the fence or lost your brain in some kind of farming accident, pick him up if you still can.  Gore is out for 3 weeks and even though Coffee hasn’t looked great the Niners are a run first team and Coffee will be the main back.

Brent Celek: I might have mentioned how much I hate TEs, but I’ll do it again.  I hate them.  There.  Celek is worth dropping most of your crap-filled TEs like  Shiancoe, Fasona, Miller, etc…  I might even drop Zach Miller who I like a lot, but who has Kurt Russell at QB.

Vernon Davis: Ugh, another TE.  Same thing with him.  He has the skills, but can he keep it together?  It’s a TE, take a shot.

Tashard Choice: With Jones out for a couple weeks and Barber not 100% you have to grab him.  Right now he seems like the most stable back on a good rushing team.

Mike Sims-Walker: He’s the numero uno wide receiver in Jacksonville.  They won’t be great, but with a bad defense and a good MJD, MSW should continue to get targets and do something with them. (more…)

Eradicator: “Dude, it’s OVER!”

Me: “What are you talking about? What’s over?”

Eradicator: “Everything men have been talking about for centuries; it’s all been washed away by keystrokes. This woman wrote abook about how guys act toward girls and is telling them to dump their man if he doesn’t put her first all the time. She is the “Deepthroat” of the modern male method of womanizing and it’s all going to come to a crashing halt.”

Me: “Dude what are you talking about? It’s probably just some Cosmo article. Relax.”

Eradicator: “I’m not kidding man, it’s a book and a lot of women are reading it and they are going to probably make a movie about it. So now we are all going to have to be Stu’s or girls will just ignore us.”

Me: “You can’t undo millions of years of evolution man. Girls will always like guys who have better things to do than hang out with them 24 hours a day and wait upon their every beck and call. “

There are players each season that disappoint the Fantasy Football Community and wreck our teams, leaving us left to pick up the pieces. Much like the loser/dependent slug of a boyfriend. So we have compiled a list of players, thus far that are slackers like Brian Spicoli. They had the world at their fingertips and yet they have disappointed us. There can only be one conclusion- “He’s just not that into you.” (more…)

No this isn’t a chain letter or cheesy personality test that someone dumps on you on Facebook. Actually it sort of is the latter. There is a lot of psychology involved in Fantasy Football and the sooner we acknowledge it and start paying attention the better.

I admit this is a bit simplistic. However:

A) I was obsessed with the Ninja Turtles for about 6 years (still have the Technodrome & Sewer packed away)

B) Talking about personality types is useful.

Think about how other people perceive you; that matters infinitely more than what you’re actually like (even though it shouldn’t).  Most of us know the other people in our Fantasy League at least a little bit and have an idea of what they are like. I try to figure out everyone’s personality type and consider that most when I’m trying to put deals together. Putting trades together is a lot more art than science and perception matters more than reality. One player might scoff at a trade while another player might gladly accept the same trade and often it just comes down to his/her values and ideology about life. So here’s a fun way for us to start exploring this concept.

Michelangelo:

The “Party Dude.” This person is notorious for missing drafts, not checking their team, and not paying their league dues. Loves to pick dudes with “cool names” or outrageous personalities. Probably owns Chad Ochocinco, T.O., Favre, Cadillac Williams, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall and probably picked Crabtree in the 8^th round or something. Not a threat unless he gets outrageously lucky. It’s extremely easy to fleece him on trades. In fact he’d probably give you his three best players for a case of Beast Ice and a PBR Sweatshirt.

If you are Michelangelo: everyone in your league makes fun of you. But you’re too cool for Fantasy Football to begin with (probably only participate for the party at the end) so that shouldn’t matter.

Do this to the Michelangelo in your league: rip him off in uneven trades, hope they pass through your league without getting voted down. Other people will be doing it so if you don’t you’re going to be at a disadvantage. (more…)