Fantasy Football Advice

Ahmad Bradshaw has been running on a split hoof and it could crack wide open at any moment.  Do you think this means he’ll get more work? Me neither.  I can’t say he’ll get less work, but Jacobs has been running better than earlier in the season and they’ll want to be careful with Bradshaw.  If I had to make a wild guess, uh, prognostication, I’d say Jacobs is the one to own. He could get hurt at anytime, which would then end up getting Bradshaw hurt, and then we’ll all be scrounging around for Danny Ware; which, if you have room you could start scrounging now.

Calvin Johnson: We finally may get to see our old pal Megatron back on the field this Sunday.  Nothing is for sure, and I’ve heard good and bad things about his status.  He’s a game time decision, but if he goes you have to get him in there.  A gimpy Megatron against the Rams is like a one testicled Lance Armstrong against my cousin in, well, just about any sport.  He’s 6.

Andre Johnson: Kubiak pronounced AJ ready to go and AJ also said they’d have to amputate his leg to keep him out of the game. I bet Ronnie Lott would have played without his leg, come on AJ, suck it up! He’s facing a decent Buffalo secondary, but nobody puts AJ in a corner, unless of course they’ve amputated his legs and arms and needed to prop him up somewhere. (more…)

1 O’Clock Games

Houston (21^st) @ Buffalo (32^nd)

Steve Slaton is an automatic start regardless of matchup. The Bills defense isn’t as bad as you would assume. The offense makes their job a lot more difficult because they don’t stay on the field long enough. Earlier in the season I thought that Moats might usurp Slaton if he struggled but that’s not going to be the case now that Slaton has turned it around in a big way. Chris Brown continues to vulture some of Slaton’s carries, even in short yardage situations but that doesn’t make him a viable option either.

Texans: Slaton +1

Runnin’ for money!!! Marshawn Lynch is fighting for every inch right now and you have to love it. The Texans defense isn’t the stoutest so you know Lynch has a bulls eye on this game to put up big numbers. The nice thing about Lynch is that he is a complete back and will get work in the passing game as well. Unfortunately Fred Jackson’s role in the offense continues to diminish. My theory is that since Lynch is going to be a free agent the Bills are piling the carries on him; I believe they want to keep Jackson, who was effective during Lynch’s suspension, fresh for next season.

Bills: Lynch +2, Jackson -1 (more…)

The name of the game this week is injury management. Three members of the top tier of wide receivers (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Wayne) are all dinged up heading into Week 8. Chris Cooley is out for at least a month, possibly the entire season. Jermichael Finley won’t be back for at least a couple of weeks. You may even be struggling with the loss of Trent Edwards.

If you’ve built some depth into your roster, and find yourself near the middle of the pack in your league, don’t panic. You don’t want to toss away future strength just to give yourself a marginally better chance at winning this week. If, however, you find yourself near the bottom of the standings, you can’t afford to give away any games and still expect to have a shot at the playoffs. Fortunately, this is a fantastic week for waiver pickups. Injuries to top-flight players results in more looks for lower ranked players. Additionally, four of the worst teams (and worst defenses) are facing off on Sunday, meaning you can grab some of the overlooked players from those normally undesirable offenses.

Just lost Jermichael Finley? Take a shot with Marcedes Lewis (@TEN) or Brandon Pettigrew (STL). Wondering how you’re going to fill in for Reggie Wayne or Andre Johnson? Try Donnie Avery (@DET) or Torry Holt (@TEN). If Wayne and Calvin Johnson can’t play on Sunday, don’t overlook Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie (both SF), or Dennis Northcutt (STL). You’ll get more detailed injury information and last minute waiver savers from Razzball as we approach the weekend, so make your plans and be ready to take advantage of the matchups. (more…)

So this week’s strategery has a new format to completely disorient and befuddle you! The first change is that I have added DVOA, which is a system developed by Football Outsiders to measure the true value of a defense.  I like it to help offset the fantasy football points allowed to QBs/RBs which is easily skewed.  As a whole I believe these four statistics; yards allowed per game, fantasy points allowed, yards given up per attempt, and DVOA help average these defenses into a ranking I feel comfortable with.  The good thing with this chart is you can see each individual statistic and ranking if you like one more than another.

I have also changed it so the top of the chart has the worst defenses and the bottom the best.  So as you can see in the first row of the passing defensive chart Tennessee ranks 32nd in yards per game, 32nd in fantasy points, and so on and on.  And then you take a look at their opponent, Jacksonville, and you can feel pretty good about playing Sims-Walker and Garrard.  So the teams on the far left column are the defenses and then just right of them are the offenses with your fantasy players hidden in there somewhere.

Take a look and if you have any questions be sure to ask! (more…)

Mohamed Massaquoi: in addition to having the majority of all vowels in his name (except for that elusive “Y”) Massaquoi also gets the majority of targets.  This past week he was targeted 9 times (4 more than Robiskie, the next closest receiver) and had two targets inside the five yard line.  By now it’s clear that Massaquoi is the stud of the Brown’s offense though unfortunately that’s like being the toughest guy in France or having the best looking goiter in the nursing home.   Either way, Massaquoi’s production potential makes him a must snag off the waiver wire or you could try to sneak him in with a multi-player trade.  Through this point in the season, Massaquoi has accounted for 11% of his offensive targets, this despite being nearly invisible until his monster week 4 performance against Cincinnati.

Greg Jennings: for now Donald’s still in the driver’s seat with 5 more targets than Jennings to date.  However, despite having a fairly quiet game this past Sunday (5 catches for 52 yards) Jennings was actually targeted 9 times (six more than Driver) including a pass inside the five yard line.  Though Jennings continues to get looks, he is an increasingly problematic start considering the fact that the Packers have gone to a shorter passing game in an effort to keep Rodger’s on his feet.  This, coupled with the fact that it is going to get pretty damn cold in Green Bay, leads me to believe that short route Driver will continue to be the more logical start.   Though many experts will tell you to have patience with Jennings, it may not be a bad idea to trade him as he still commands 2^nd to 3^rd round value (but won’t for long). (more…)