Fantasy Football Advice

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Tier I

Larry Fitzgerald 20 (10+10) – I have been harping on this for a few weeks. I discussed the situation extensively in Game Day Companion on Sunday. Get Larry Fitzgerald. Period.

Steven Jackson 18 (9+9) – Can somebody get this guy a touchdown, please? Look the Rams are horrible but Steven Jackson is easily having the best fantasy season in history without getting in the end zone. He will score eventually.

Calvin Johnson 18 (9+9) – This guy is a warrior. I think that him, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald should form some crime fighting super hero group. He is going to come back from this injury and be effective. If you have to take chances, take chances on guys with determination and a strong work ethic. (more…)

A broken fibula seems like it might not be that bad.  I mean fibula, it’s like a tiny lie or something, right?  Well, whatever it is, Leon Washington is done for the season.   I had high hopes for Washington and it’s sad to see him go, but life goes on so drop his ass for the guy that follows or the guy that follows that guy.

Shonn Greene: Greene went off for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Raiders. He showed promise in preseason, but wasn’t used at all during the season in the crowded backfield with Leon Washington and Thomas Jones. Now that Washington has taken his leave Greene gets a shot to split time with Tom Jones. Jones will continue to be the lead act so don’t expect games like this to come along often, but he is a must add.

Beanie Wells: Beanie has slowly been getting more responsibilities and last night he earned his allowance by compiling 67 yards and a TD while getting ten more carries than Hightower. Hightower isn’t going to sail off into the sunset since he is still needed for blocking and pass catching, but expect Whisenhunt to go to the Wells more and more.  If he was dropped in your league pick him up and laugh at whoever dropped him (even if it is you). (more…)

Sunday’s finally here! To start things off we have our “Matchup Savers,” players that you can start today if you’re in a pinch due to the bye week, injuries, etc. I do all of this within the context of 12 team leagues that are competitive. Often there will be more talented/valuable players than these available- take them unless you are really enamored with a certain matchup.

Week 5 Matchup Savers

Quarterback:

Shaun Hill- The 49’ers are facing a relatively soft Houston defense. Hopefully Frank Gore will come back healthy and take some pressure off Hill. It will be interesting to see how Crabtree plays. Hill had a few really solid games early on in the season and I think he has some more left in him.

Chad Henne- The Dolphins are going to have their hands full with New Orleans this week. If they get behind they will be forced to throw the football and that bodes well for Henne’s fantasy numbers. He has looked surprisingly good out there.

This is it for guys that are probably on your waiver wire with favorable matchups for the week. Usually there are a few more but if one of these two isn’t available you’re not going to like what else is out there!

Running Back:

Justin Fargas- He shouldn’t be available in your league since he’s a starter but he might be. The matchup against the Jets isn’t too bad either. They just lost Jenkins for the season and that is going to wreak havoc on their ability to stop the run.

Kevin Faulk- (for PPR) Sammy Morris has been ruled out for this game so maybe Faulk will get a few more touches in there. He is basically a lock for 5 points with upside to get you 15.

Jamaal Charles- The Chiefs are playing the Chargers, a team that has a prolific offense but a suspect run defense. If the Chiefs are smart they’ll run the ball heavily which bodes well for Charles getting some carries. I would expect 10-15 total touches from him.

Brandon Jackson- As Doc alluded to in his column the Packers appear to be weighing their options at RB. Not good if you own Ryan Grant. Jackson might get an opportunity to showcase his skills.

Wide Receiver

Austin Collie- He’s probably not available in your league, but if he is, grab him and throw him in there against St. Louis; you have to love the entire Colts offense in this game.

Michael Jenkins- Should be available in most leagues. He has solid projections for this week.

Davone Bess- I really like him going forward. The Dolphins are going to have to throw the football in this game and he should benefit from that.

Greg Camarillo- See Davone Bess above.

David Clowney- With Cotchery out Clowney is the default #2. Edwards should get blanketed all game, freeing Clowney up for some opportunities.

Mark Bradley- It’s not that I love him or his matchup that much but he’s a #2 Wide Receiver and the Chargers will definitely be keying in on Dwayne Bowe.

Tight End

Anthony Fasano- I like the Dolphins wide receivers because I think they’ll have to throw the football and I’m going with the same logic for Fasano this week.

Benjamin Watson- You have to love anyone on the offensive side of the football for New England this week with the cupcake matchup against the Buccaneers looming.

Kevin Boss- I am not totally crazy about KB necessarily but we’re talking about spot starting tight ends here.

Randy McMichael- Going along the same theme of “his team will be getting slaughtered and will have to throw the football.”

D/ST

Indianapolis- I wish instead of picking a team defense you could pick against a certain teams offense for the season. I would have taken “any defense playing against St. Louis” in like the 3^rd round.

Buffalo- The Bills are not a very good defense so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers lit them up. That being said Carolina is a turnover factory and that’s the big thing I look for in matchups.

Dallas- I’m not excited about this matchup against Atlanta but in every fantasy league there are idiots who hoard defenses, leaving very undesirable ones on the wire.

Alright so now it’s time for our watch list of players to either trade and get or look to unload from our teams depending on what happens this weekend.

Buy High

Adrian Peterson- Sometimes you have to state the obvious. Purple Jesus is a beast, flat out. If his owner is struggling with depth you might be able to get in him in a 2 for 1, 3 for 2, or some other multi-player deal. I am not a big advocate of trading for stud running backs in general because of the injury factor but there are exceptions to every rule.

Ronnie Brown- He has a very good chance of finishing in the top 5 in Fantasy this season. I would rather own him than any of the backs that were first round choices this year except AP. Doc predicted that he would be huge this season but I wasn’t as bullish; I didn’t draft him on any of my teams and now I wish I had listened.

Larry Fitzgerald- I called ESPN out a few weeks ago when they ran this column about how Larry Fitz isn’t the stud he was before because there are too many other guys in Arizona and blah, blah, blah. This is the guy, right here that is going to carry you in the playoffs this season. This is the Cardinals schedule:  @Detroit in week 15 then home against St. Louis in week 16! Are you kidding me?

Philip Rivers- Such a stud. I know there’s not a lot of trading that takes place involving the elite quarterbacks unless you’re in a 2 QB league but if you need to shore yourself up there I would definitely take a look at Rivers.

Brandon Marshall- He is going to put up super-elite WR digits from here on out and his acquisition cost is substantially less than the other guys on this level like Fitz and Andre Johnson.

Reggie Wayne- I loves me some Reggie Wayne. Week in and week out he’s going to give you double digits or more. Defenses know they can’t just load up to try and shut down Wayne because Manning will gauge them elsewhere.

Sell High

Thomas Jones- His production has been so big that everyone is starting to overlook the mileage on him. There’s no reason why you shouldn’t be able to get something really valuable in trade and I would take it just to eliminate risk.

Steve Smith (NYG) – I would only trade him if someone’s willing to give you good value. He is obviously way better than his preseason ranking but I just don’t believe that he’ll finish the season leading the league in receptions and yards. In a keeper league with retention costs you have to hold on to him though.

Aaron Rodgers- The offensive line issue is just too scary in Green Bay. It’s too bad because this is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The odds of him getting injured are huge unless they are able to protect him better. He also has a very, very tough fantasy playoff schedule.

Hines Ward- He has been a steady, productive fantasy receiver for years. He has been so huge this season, benefiting from the pass happy Steelers offense. The problem is Mike Tomlin may seek to balance things out more and they also have two other really good young receivers in Pittsburgh.

Buy Low

Anquan Boldin- It looks like he won’t  play this week. Above, I discussed the ridiculously easy schedule for the Cardinals during the fantasy playoffs. Boldin always seems to be battling injuries but he is a warrior- he will fight through it and be productive.

Jerome Harrison- It is only a matter of time before Jamal Lewis gets hurt again or is completely useless. Harrison is the guy in Cleveland; maybe I’ll turn out to be wrong on this one but I’m taking a stand.

Calvin Johnson- He’s on a bye week, and that’s after missing last week’s game due to injury. Both he and Stafford should be back after this. There are no guarantees that he will deliver like he did last year but you have to take chances to win and if you’re going to take a chance this is the guy to do it on.

Jerricho Cotchery- He is going to miss this Sunday’s game. I still love him relative to value right now because of the “Braylon Edwards Effect” that I have talked about in previous columns. Mark Sanchez will improve over the course of the season and I see Cotchery posting several double-digit games.

Sell Low

Ryan Grant- I talked about this situation above when I touted Brandon Jackson. Grant’s days as the feature back in Green Bay might be numbered. He could turn it around and hold on to his job but I would trade him now while you can still get good value for him.

Larry Johnson- He’ll be on here all season just to remind all of his owners that you’re playing with fire by not dealing him. The production has been decent this season- don’t get greedy!

Clinton Portis- see Larry Johnson

Willis McGahee- For non-PPR this is a little bit different since touchdown vultures are a lot more valuable. But in PPR get rid of him and get whatever you can out of the deal.

Marion Barber- Injured running backs are terrifying to me. His value has plummeted significantly but if he stays relatively healthy there might be a good game in his future. Once that happens you’d better ship him out.

Terrell Owens- I may just have him in this category until the trade deadline!

We are on the cusp of week 7. Before we know it the Colts will be 14-0 and we’ll be talking about if they should sit Manning or go for an undefeated season and blah friggin blah.  I don’t want to be there yet! I want to stay in the heart of the season forever! I know it won’t happen, but that idea of cutting down preseason and adding a couple games to regular season sounds ok with me.  Anyway, I’ll complain about the season being too short later as well, so be prepared!  Here are a few thoughts before this weekends matchups:

Jerricho Cotchery: The Cotch Rocket is still hurting and won’t play in Oakland.  I still feel like Cotchery can be a useful fantasy player and the fact that they are resting him instead of throwing him out there to reinjure his hamstring is good for his owners.

Michael Crabtree: Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan will split time equally with Crabtree. There really is no need to start him this week. If you need a bye week filler think Mike Wallace or Morley Safer.

Anquan Boldin: Boldin is a game-time decision, which isn’t good since his game time comes around later than most other game times. If you have Steve Breaston and Quan, and are sitting one of them, I wouldn’t worry about it, but otherwise get to worryin’ or get to losin’.

Anthony Gonzalez: The toast of Preseason Razzball Town should start to practice next week. I’ve held him because I am just that crazy. He will probably take Garcon’s place and Collie will still see work out of the slot. I would drop Garcon as soon as AGonz comes back, but hang onto Collie until he breaks his leash and heads off into the sunset.

Percy Harvin: He reinjured his shoulder during last week’s game and is questionable for this week’s.  With Sidney Rice getting a lot of special attention from Old Man Favre I don’t see Harvin doing much if he plays at all. If I owned Harvin I’d hope he would sit out this week and take the extra time to change his last name to Farvin.

Clinton Portis: He has yet to practice this week, but I’m not sure he has practiced at all this season.  The man has like 4 broken bones and the Bird Flu.  They will wheel him out and line him up and he’ll get your team some yards and may fall into the endzone, but don’t expect much.

Chad Ochocinco: Eight five does not need the ability to say shizz to the world at any moment it pops into his addled mind.  Unfortunately Twitter has give him this ability.  Each week there is a “story” about what eight five tweeted and I can’t repeat what it was this week since I didn’t pay enough attention, but I can assure you it was nothing important.  But no matter how irrelevant his voice is, his legs and hands are relevant on the football field. He is a solid #2.  And I mean that.

Miles Austin: With Roy Williams not 100% I think Austin will break the curse of one and done wide receivers we’ve seen this season.  Will he gain 250 yards again?  I know I’m going to shock you when I say this, but, no.  But that doesn’t mean he won’t get his targets and Atlanta’s pass D is hurting, especially with Williams out.

Jonathan Stewart: The Daily Show finally stopped showing crappy reruns and gave us a good episode. He has been gimpy this week, but his matchup is too favorable to sit him. The Panthers are going to run and run and then have someone in the stands draw up some more running plays when they run out so they can run some more.

Ahman Green: He signed with his old team and is already injured. He must have hurt his hand while signing. Or maybe when the owner slapped him on the back to congratulate him his shoulder dislocated.

Ryan Grant: It’s been reported that the Packers were trying hard to trade for a running back before the deadline since Ryan Grant looks like a slug on valium. But instead they got Green. This doesn’t bode well for Grant. He could have a decent game against the pitiful Browns’ run D and then you should stick him with a hook and toss him into the trade waters.

Here it is Ladies and Gents, the Ground Game Preview for Week 7. One thing I would like to reinforce about our “rating system,” which I have blatantly stolen from Mark, is that when we upgrade or downgrade a player we’re always doing so within the context of their value. Our goal is to give you the best possible tools to make decisions with.

Let’s recap how the system works here: start with your basic ranking of players, and then consider -1 and +1 ratings to move the player to the bottom or top of their current tier. A -2 and +2 rating bumps them into the tier below or above their normal position. A new addition from last week is the team’s ranking in rush defense (measured in prushing yards allowed per game) in parentheses.

1 PM games

Green Bay (16^th) @ Cleveland (30^th)

I have been down on Ryan Grant for some time but it’s tough not to love him in this game. The Packers offense should have their way with the Browns and light up the scoreboard. Even if he doesn’t rack up huge yards Grant should get some goal line opportunities. I’m not sure how many carries Brandon Jackson will get but he’s one of my top stashes right now.

Packers: Grant: +3, Jackson: +2

Now that Jamal Lewis is in there ruining everything I have no reason to get excited about Cleveland. Odds are they will fall behind in this game quickly and be forced to put it in the air. Jamal Lewis should be a start by force only. Unfortunately you can’t throw Jerome Harrison out there either but I still love his upside

Browns: Lewis: -2, Harrison: -1

San Diego (27^th) @ Kansas City (25^th)

The Chargers should have no problems moving the football and putting up points against the Chiefs. Tomlinson actually looked really good on Monday Night Football. I see Sproles as a serviceable flex start right now.

Chargers: Tomlinson +2, Sproles +2

Their defense has been a colossal disappointment this season. They did lose their stud nose tackle but still there’s no excuse for how bad they’ve been. Look for the Chiefs to try and pound the ground game to keep Philip Rivers and company off the field. Relative to value I love both Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles in this one.

KC: Johnson +3, Charles +3

Indianapolis (14^th) @ St. Louis (26^th)

The Colts are the one team in the NFL that don’t seem to adjust their game plan all that much based on their opponent. Basically whatever you try to do, Peyton Manning will exploit you the other way. There’s no reason the Colts shouldn’t put up a lot of points against this team which is good for both Addai and Brown.

Colts: Addai +2, Brown +2

The only chance the Rams have of winning this game is by shortening it. Expect a heavy dose of Steven Jackson in this one. I see no reason why he won’t be able to put up respectable fantasy numbers. The nice thing about Jackson is even if they go to the passing game he stays in there and catches balls.

Rams: Jackson +2

Minnesota (9^th) @ Pittsburgh (2^nd)

This is going to be a great game. If anyone will be able to have success against Pittsburgh it’s going to be Adrian Peterson. This is a matchup you’re not looking forward to if you own him but there is no way you can sit him and respect yourself. Chester Taylor is a definite no-start.

MIN: Peterson: -3, Taylor: -5

The Steelers passing game is so dynamic right now that its forcing teams to game plan them differently. This is great news for Rashard Mendenhall. The Vikings aren’t a great matchup for him necessarily but I think he should have a decent game. I would be very hesitant about putting Parker or Mewelde Moore in there.

PIT: Mendenhall -1, Parker -3, Moore -3

New England (20^th) @ Tampa Bay (31^st)

The Patriots should treat this as a scrimmage, much like their game last week against the Titans. So far Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris have gotten injured, leaving Laurence Maroney as the only horse in the stable. He should rack up some yards again this week. Kevin Faulk is nothing more than a pass receiver (see- Keith Byars) and he never will be.

Patriots: Mauroney +5, Faulk +2

The Buccaneers can’t run the ball or pass it. The Patriots have given up some yards on the ground this season but I foresee them keying in on Cadillac Williams. There’s really nothing to like in this game about the Bucs backs. I’m done with Derrick Ward at this point, he’s dead to me.

Buccaneers: Williams -1, Ward -3

San Francisco (7^th) @ Houston (24^th)

Frank Gore is returning this week which makes Glen Coffee bench material. Gore is a must start here, especially against this soft defense. If you still own him now hopefully he has a few good games and you can get something for him in a trade. I think you’re crazy if you hold on to him the whole season.

49’ers: Gore +2, Coffee -3

The Texans offense is a lot of fun to watch. They will finish the season as one of the top scoring teams in the NFL. Steve Slaton was on my list of players who are due to break and he did this past Sunday. I view him as must-start in every format regardless of opponent. Ryan Moats at this point is just someone to hang on to unless Slaton gets hurt.

Texans: Slaton -1, Moats -3

4 PM games

Buffalo (32^nd) @ Carolina (29^th)

You have to love this matchup for the Bills rushing attack. The controversy all season has been what would happen once Marshawn Lynch came back from injury. Fred Jackson has taken over the kick and punt return duties as of last week so that means you can expect Lynch’s touches to increase more. I see Lynch as a must start for the week and Jackson as a flex start if you need someone.

Bills: Lynch +3, Jackson +1

Well the Bills have taken over the crown of “worst rushing defense in football” despite their victory against the Jets. DeAngelo Williams should be able to let loose and finally have a big game; he’s due.

Carolina: DeAngelo Williams +2, Stewart +2

New York Jets (21^st) @ Oakland (28^th)

The formula for beating the Raiders is pretty simple- run it down their throats. The Eagles decided instead to throw the football all over the field which was the reason they lost. Expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington with a little bit of Shonn Greene sprinkled in during 4^th quarter junk time.

Jets: Jones +2, Washington +2, Greene +3

You actually own Raiders players? Must be you’re in a 20 team league. It is difficult for me to have anything positive to say about Justin Fargas or the rest of their “alleged” running game. One HUGE impact on the Jets was the announcement that they have lost Kris Jenkins for the season. Why is this so important? Because in the 3-4 scheme that they run the nose tackle is far and away the most important player. Kris Jenkins is one of the top nose tackles in the NFL and without him it’s difficult to predict how much their defense will regress. Listen I hate the Raiders as much as you do but I would probably start Justin Fargas this week and Michael Bush if you’re desperate.

Raiders: Fargas +1, Bush 0

Atlanta (23^rd) @ Dallas (17^th)

Michael Turner is on his way to being such a bust this season. He has been disappointing so far but I think he’ll ultimately be even worse. I am telling everyone to sell and him now while people still think he was worth a first round pick. Jerious Norwood has also been an enormous disappointment for me this year. For this game you have to start Turner but beyond that I wouldn’t even consider it in the deepest of leagues.

Falcons: Turner 0, Norwood -2, Snelling 0

A lot of people were drafting Tashard Choice in the later rounds and I thought it was such a reach at the time to give up anything for a #3 back. Barber and Jones just can’t get/stay healthy and Choice just keeps running strong. I love him in this game to give you a solid start against a mediocre defense.

Cowboys: Choice +2, Barber -1 (not sure what his health status will be)

Chicago (6^th) @ Cincinnati (11^th)

Matt Forte hasn’t delivered on his first round status either. I do like the Bears offense though and if he can run effectively in the red zone there might be some opportunities for him. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t anything special although they are better than they get credit for. Keep an eye on Garrett Wolfe going forward; he continues to play more and more and will be a big scorer if Forte gets hurt.

Bears: Forte 0, Wolfe 0

“Runnin’ for money!!!!!!!” Keeps those legs churnin’ Cedric Benson! I predicted that he would have a slightly down week after ripping up the Ravens. I’m going to go double or nothing on the predictions with him- he is going to light the Bears up like a unity candle; 2 touchdowns, 120+ total yards (rushing and receiving). Our regular readers know I’m not the predicting type but I’m on a roll with “runnin’ for $” and there’s no reason to stop now. Keep your eyes on Bernard Scott in case Benson gets hurt.

Bengals: Benson +1, Scott -1

New Orleans (5^th) @ Miami (3^rd)

Is there anything the New Orleans offense can’t do? The only thing that kills their running backs is that there are three of them, they are all good, and they all specialize. Pierre Thomas is your straight up runner so he tends to get most of the raw yards. Bell comes in and vultures his touchdowns. Reggie Bush snakes most of the receptions (and subsequently, yards) out of the backfield. So it is difficult to say which of them is poised for a big day. Against Miami’s stout defense Thomas and Bush are flex starts if you need them to be and Bell should stay on the bench for this matchup.

Saints: Thomas -1, Bush -1, Bell -3

I think there’s a conspiracy at ESPN. See, Sean Salisbury used to make outrageous statements, declaring a new team “the best in the NFL, a sure bet to win the Super Bowl” every single week. What I think happened is they fired him so they could all do that. I’m not saying the Saints aren’t the real deal, I’m not saying they aren’t a great team. What I am saying is that it’s mid-season. Remember how “unbeatable” the Cowboys have been early on in recent memory? So when I see that the Saints defense is 5^th against the run I don’t buy that they’re that good. I think the Dolphins can run the football on this defense. I’m not sure if their defense will be able to reign in Drew Brees and his minions but I just think this is sort of a trap game for the Saints.

Dolphins: Brown 0, Williams 0

8 PM game

Arizona (1^st) @ New York Giants (18^th)

The Cardinals don’t see much reason to run the football unless it’s 3^rd and 1. They actually do try to stay a lot more balanced than you would think but they are a pass-oriented team and will be all season. I love what Tim Hightower does for you, receiving out of the backfield and getting all the goal line touches. Beanie Wells I’m not so enthused by and without opportunities to get in the end zone I can’t justify him as anything more than a stash at this point. Considering how the Saints were able to carve up the Giants D last week you have to think the Arizona will be able to move the football and score points. That bodes well for Hightower.

Cardinals: Hightower +1, Wells -1

The Cardinals shouldn’t be ranked 1^st overall against the run for long. Expect a heavy dose of Jacobs and Bradshaw this week as they try and keep the ball out of Kurt Warners hands and give their defense time to rest. I can’t give the dynamic duo a positive rating for this game- in fact I have to downgrade them slightly. But I have this sneaking suspicion that the G-men are going to try and ram it down their throats all game and might be successful.

Giants: Jacobs -1, Bradshaw -1

Monday game

Philadelphia (15^th) @ Washington (22^nd)

As a die hard Eagles fan last Sunday was one of the saddest days of my football life. But you get what you deserve. That’s what happens when you don’t run the football, that’s what you get when you overlook a team no matter how bad they are. I like the Eagles to come out in this contest inspired and motivated. Look for Brian Westbrook, in particular, to have one of his patented 150+ all purpose yard performances. I think LeSean McCoy warrants a flex start in all leagues 12 team or deeper.

Eagles: Westbrook +2, McCoy +1

Clinton Portis is about the only thing the Redskins have going for them right now. He continues to defy all logic and post solid performance after solid performance. That offense is a disaster right now but he’s an obvious must start. I have been touting Ladell Betts as a stash in case Portis gets injured due to the excessive workload but in this game he’s not an option to start.

Redskins: Portis -1, Betts -3