Fantasy Football Advice

Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary.  As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types.  A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson 25 — You know what he can do.

2. Adrian Peterson 25 — Purple Jesus can still raise the dead (he just has trouble holding onto the ball).

3. Maurice Jones Drew 25 — He’s got a nose for the goal line.

4. Ray Rice 23 — I’m not too worried about McGahee and these are Dynasty rankings we are talking bout.

Tier 2

5. Jamaal Charles 23 — Probably deserves Tier 1 status, but needs to perform for a whole year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall 23 — Young and the #1 on a good team.

7. Shonn Greene 25 — With Jones gone he could rush Rex Ryan’s weight in a single game.

8. Frank Gore 27 — Steady and versatile, but aging and injury prone.

9. Beanie Wells 22 — Hightower will be eating his dust.

10. Steven Jackson 27 — Will put up good numbers, but his team is an albatross around his neck.

Tier 3

11. Jonathan Stewart 23 — His age and ability trump his RBBC lot in life.

12. Michael Turner 28 — He can put up TD’s with the best of them.

13. Knowshon Moreno 23 — Didn’t overwhelm in his rookie season, but his situation is ripe for success.

14. DeAngelo Williams 27 –  He’s too good to knock down far even though he’s older than his RBBC pal.

Tier 4

15. Ryan Grant 27 — On a great offense.  Steady production.

16. Donald Brown 23 — RBBC for now, but youth always wins out.

17. Cedric Benson 27 — Bengals have become run first.

18. Pierre Thomas 25 — Just hope Payton gives him some goal line work.

19. Matt Forte 24 — Chester Taylor hurts him, but thankfully Taylor will be 31 this season.

20. Felix Jones 23 — Worried about his health, but see him getting the most numbers in cow town.

Tier 5

21. LeSean McCoy 22 — He’ll move up the ranks if the Eagles don’t grab a veteran.

22. Joseph Addai 27 — Has some productive committee years left.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw 24 — Jacobs and he were both injured, but he outplayed him.

24. Ronnie Brown 28 — He could slip further depending on how his injury looks, but he is an elite talent.

25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season.  If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.

Tier 6

26. Brandon Jacobs 28 — I’m not a fan, but if he’s healthy he can get in the endzone.

27. Marshawn Lynch 24 — His age and past production make him hard to pass on.

28. Jerome Harrison 27 — I wanted to put him higher, but he’ll probably be in a committee.

29. Fred Jackson 29 — There’s a good chance he’ll get the bulk of the carries this season, but he is old (which makes me ancient).

Tier 7

30. Reggie Bush 25 — Reggie Bush type.

31. Darren Sproles 27 — Reggie Bush type, but older.

32. Darren McFadden 23 — Lots of talent, but is on a bad team and might be a Reggie Bush type.

33. Kevin Smith 23 — His injuries and inability to run well are worrisome, but he has time for redemption.

34. Marion Barber 27 — Most Barbarians have short life spans.

Tier 8

35. Michael Bush 26 — Could end up being the starter on a bad team.

36. Thomas Jones 32 — Doesn’t get hurt so should have a year or two left.  Depends on the team he winds up on.

37. Laurence Maroney 25 — Had a great stretch last season.  Still young.

38. Tashard Choice 25 — Barber is declining.  Jones is injury prone.

39. Chester Taylor 31 — Role is undefined now in Chicago, but he could do some things in a Martz offense.

40. Steve Slaton 24 — Had a great rookie season.  Has skills.  Benched. Is hurt. Flier.

Tier 9

41. Leon Washington 28 — Looks like he’ll be ready to go all season in a run first offense.

42. Tim Hightower 24 — Still young, but will be a Beanie back-up.

43. LenDale White 25 — A bit risky, but anywhere other than behind CJ will help him.

44. Willis McGahee 28 — Staying in Baltimore will hurt his value.

45. Ricky Williams 33 — Should get you one more productive year.

46. Carnell Williams 28 — Lasted all last season.  Probably won’t this season.

47. Arian Foster 24 — He showed some awesomeness, but the Texans are looking at RB’s in the draft.

Tier 10

48. James Davis 24 — Young and will compete with Jerome Harrison for the starting job.

49. Bernard Scott 26 — If Benson goes down he would easily take up the slack.

50. Lex Hilliard 26 — Ricky is old. Ronnie is oldish/injuryish.

51. Jerious Norwood 27 — Turner has had a lot of carries.  Norwood should be healthy.

52. LaDainian Tomlinson 31 — Should hook up with a new team.  A lot depends on that team.

53. Glen Coffee 23 — Gore is injury prone.

54. Rashad Jennings 25 — Just has MJD blocking him.

55. Derrick Ward 30 — Will be in the mix, but the recipe is bland.

56. Maurice Morris 30 — Might, might, be a starter if the Lions are dumb.

57. Correl Buckhalter 31 — Should still be the #2 in the mountains, but old.

Tier 11

58. Tyrell Sutton 23 — A good change of pace back that could flourish with an opportunity.

59. Mike Goodson 23 — See above.

60. Mike Bell 27 — Should find a team and his value will depend on that team

61. Chris Jennings 24 — Slim chance to get into the mix after Harrison and Davis.

62. Jason Snelling 26 — Norwood was hurt much of last season so Snelly got the work.

63. Larod Stephens-Howling 23 — Has the ability to be a Reggie Bush type.

64. Javon Ringer 23 — Would probably pick up the reps if CJ goes down as long as White is gone.

65. Brian Westbrook 31 — If he hooks up with the right team and looks healthy I could see moving him up a little, but I’m not taking him.

updated 3/6/10

Before jumping into an analysis of the Lions’ #2 pick, it’s worth noting that as we make our way through the first round of the draft, we’ll get better and more reliable information closer to the draft date. Each team’s report should be considered in terms of when it was written and the information available at that point — and of course, as more information is revealed, we’ll do our best to update or append the earlier reports.

The reason this is on my mind is that just a few days ago when Doc wrote the draft report on the Rams, the best and most reliable NFL sources were saying that while St. Louis might be tempted by Bradford or Clausen, they were likely to still take Suh or Gerald McCoy as they were considered the best overall players available. On Thursday, however, ESPN’s Adam Schefter told a St. Louis radio station that he considers it a lock that the Rams will take Sam Bradford #1 overall. It’s still pretty early, so things can change, but Schefter has been an excellent source and not one to spread unfounded rumors.

Now, this might not seem like it would change the Lions’ draft plan, but I think it’s important for one reason — if the Lions consider either Suh or McCoy to be vastly superior, and the Rams had taken the DT the Lions coveted most, Detroit may have been tempted to trade down. If the Rams really are set on taking Bradford, then the Lions are free to take whichever DT they want most…or, if they consider them essentially equal, they may try to swap picks with the Bucs (at #3) and pick up an extra late round draft pick in the process.

As we saw last year, Matt Stafford, when healthy (and occasionally not), is capable of running the offense. Too often, though, they couldn’t keep pace with opposing teams because of the defense. As with most of the defenses at the bottom of the team defense rankings, there aren’t a lot of positions that couldn’t use an upgrade, but a dominant defensive lineman like Suh or McCoy can immediately make things easier on the linebackers and secondary.

If the Lions do take a defensive player in the 1st round, clearly there won’t be a huge fantasy impact. The biggest fantasy consequence of an improved defense may be more opportunities for the offensive unit, assuming the defense is more successful in getting off the field. Of course, with the number of easy touchdowns the defense gave up last year, anything other than a dramatic improvement may actually result in more prolonged drives for opposing offenses instead of quick-strike big plays. More important for fantasy purposes will be a healthy and more experienced Matt Stafford, and the opportunity to bolster the running back corps through free agency and the later rounds of the draft.

I’m not going to give any long winded diatribes on the greatness or not-so-greatness of each player.  You’ll have to wait on that as we go through our 2010 redraft rankings.  I’m giving you dynasty rankings here.  Always, and I mean always draft J.R. first.

Those numbers after their names are how old they’ll be at the beginning of the season.  Age isn’t nearly as important with quarterbacks as it is running backs, so these rankings will be similar to the redraft rankings, except of course for the ageless one, Brett Favre.  He may play until he is fifty, but if you are starting a dynasty team, Favre just isn’t worth the risk.

Tier 1

1. Aaron Rodgers 26 — Young and just getting better.

2. Drew Brees 31 — Payton and his offense aren’t going anywhere, so Brees isn’t either.

3. Peyton Manning 34 — Getting older, but he’s not slowing down.

4. Philip Rivers 28 — I almost slid him ahead of Peyton.  It scared me.

5. Tom Brady 33 — The Pats are losing some of their shine, but Brady isn’t going to stop throwing.

Tier 2

6. Tony Romo 30 — Tony, Tony, Tony will keep moving up the charts.

7. Matt Schaub 29 — Proved his durability and has a good friend in A.J.

Tier 3

8. Jay Cutler 27 — Interceptions don’t count for a lot in most leagues.

9. Matt Ryan 25 — Should get back on track.

10. Donovan McNabb 33 — Old, but still putting up top ten numbers.

11. Ben Roethlisberger 28 — Keeps improving, but seems to enjoy getting hit often.  Could be addicted to pain killers (and sexual assault investigations).

Tier 4

12. Joe Flacco 25 — Bert’s twin just got his wish, Boldin and Mason.

13. Eli Manning 29 — He looks like he lives in his mom’s basement, but will continue to throw around 4k a year.

14. Alex Smith 26 — Crabtree and Davis should keep Smith from crapping the bed again.

Tier 5

15. Matthew Stafford 22 — Might take a little while, but Megatron will ease his growing pains.

16. Chad Henne 25 — Had some big games last season.  Needs Boldin, Marshall, etc.. to show up at camp.

17. Mark Sanchez 23 — He’s in a good situation to learn and grow and all that shizz.

18. Vince Young 27 — Showed up last season when the Titans needed him.

Tier 6

19. Carson Palmer 30 — He didn’t look right against the Jets.

20. Matt Leinart 27 — Fitz makes any QB better.

21. Matt Cassel 28 — He has to show up this season or he’ll be on his way to dud town.

22. Kyle Orton 27 — Forgetting Brandon Marshall will be tough.

Tier 7

23. Kevin Kolb 26 — He is next in line to lead some very good and young receivers in a throw first offense.

24. Brett Favre 40 — I think he’ll play.  Look for one more good season.

25. Josh Freeman 22 — Has the skills and that upside thing.

26. Matt Hasselbeck 34 — He’s fallen pretty far due to an aging team and aging body.  Hair = Strength.

27. Jason Campbell 28 — Gets one more shot.  Better hope Snyder buys a new offense for Shanny.

Tier 8

28. Matt Moore 26 — He should get a shot over Delhomme.

29. Michael Vick 30 — A lot depends on where he ends up, but he’s not accurate.

30. David Garrard 31 — I don’t think he’ll be the starter for much longer.  Not good for dynasties.

Tier 9

31. Brady Quinn 25 — The Browns are looking to dump him, but still has a slim chance to start.

32. Trent Edwards 26 — Will probably be the starter next season.  Yippee.

33. Tarvaris Jackson 27 — If Favre stays home.

34. Bruce Gradkowski 27 — Was much more productive than the production black hole that is Russell.

Tier 10

35. Seneca Wallace 30 — Stop gap.

36. JaMarcus Russell 25 — Not good, but I suppose he could turn things around.

37. David Carr 31 — Should backup Smith.

updated — 3/11/10

Here at Razzball we’re not going to just throw out a 2010 Mock Draft and be done with it.  We are going to take a look at each team’s needs and look at who they might take, who they should take, and what it will take to make them not as bad as last season.  We are going to get right to the good stuff and look at the number one overall pick.

The St. Louis Rams need everything.  I’m guessing their ball boys are slow and inept.  But what do they need the most?  And who will they end up picking? When we look back on the Rams 2009 season it’s hard not to be struck by the big gaping hole at the head of the roster which was bored out by the triumvirate of crap called Kyle Boller, Marc Bulger and Keith Null.  If the Rams want to keep fans coming to games they’ll have to do more than lower their ticket prices, they’ll need to get a QB.  There is a lot of speculation that QB might be an Eagle of some sort; Michael Vick being the most likely culprit (as he usually is).  Besides through a trade or free agency, the Rams can have any player they want in the draft.  Those are the spoils of winning just one game!

Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are at the top of most scouts’ quarterback lists, with Bradford #1 if his shoulder looks sound.  But at the same time the Rams are in need of more than a quarterback and head coach Steve Spagnola is a defensive minded coach which brings us to the consensus pick by scouts and mock drafters alike, Nebraska’s DT Ndamukong Suh.  Suh could help shore up a defensive line that gave up the most rushing touchdowns in the league last season.  But of course I could make a case for almost every position based on last season’s woeful statistics. Suh’s versatility and of course dominance are what make him the #1 pick on most draft boards.

When you have as many holes to fill as the Rams do, whoever they pick will be a huge upgrade, but unlike Spags I believe you build a team with an offensive line and quarterback.  As we have seen lately, the passing game is the most integral part of a winning team.  Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers didn’t have the best defense backing them up, they had a passing game that kept them in every game they played.  Vick and Suh won’t turn this team around, and yes, I am asking too much from a very bad team, and yes Suh will make them better, but until they start protecting and developing a young quarterback they aren’t going anywhere.  Should they take Bradford or Clausen over Suh or Gerald McCoy?  I believe so.  Will they? No.

If the Rams do end up grabbing a young QB, the fate of Steven Jackson will probably be similar to last year.  Opposing defenses will stack the box and make the rookie beat them while SJax gets beat on (do not insert domestic abuse quip here). If they go ahead with Suh, the team will get better, but SJax won’t see much of a difference based solely on Suh’s presence.  But, if they even were to trade for Vick or any upgrade from the triumvirate, it will help SJax’s numbers a little. Any threat at all from the quarterback is better than those stooges.

As expected Ladainian Tomlinson was released by the Chargers.  The fantasy Gods are pouring out a forty for the old man as we speak.  Money rules and running backs thirty and over drool, and will soon be on Dancing With The Stars or hawking hair dye or male enhancement pills.  L.T. is probably the best fantasy running back of all time, but I’m sure we get to watch him decline some more on another team like so many great running backs before him.  I remember watching Franco Harris in an ugly Seahawks uniform lumbering around.  That was sad.

Now L.T. wants a Super Bowl, so he’ll be looking to go to a team with a chance of going all the way.  But he will have to take a pay cut and a role cut.  If he is ok to just be a third down option, he should be able to hook up with a team eventually, but I don’t see him being much of a fantasy contributor because he is old and averaged 3.3 yards last season.

Tim Tebow: He looks just like a guy I went to grad school with, who was a drug addict and wannabe Johnny Cash poet.  We’ll call him Dave (which is actually his name).  He tried changing.  He decided that coke was just not helping him in his career goals.  Tim Tebow decided something similar.  He had been relying on bad throwing mechanics, but realized they also were not helping him reach his career goals, so he is going to try changing.  I saw Dave the last time I went back home.  He didn’t look too good.

Thomas Jones: Word is, if Leon Washington’s rehab is going well and it looks like he’ll be able to start week 1, Tom Jones might be on the road like Tom Joad.  This is huge news if true.  Shonn Greene would become a 1st round fantasy player with Jones out.  It’s all speculation at this point, but that’s some of the best kind of ulation.

Laurent Robinson: For the first couple games of last season Robinson was easily the Rams best receiver, but he then fractured his fibula ending his season.  Robinson will be back and ready for the off season program, but will now need to battle Brandon Gibson who flashed some talent after Robinson went down.  I like these Rams receivers.  If they can somehow get a QB they could be fantasy worthy.  But that’s a Wilfork sized if.

Brian Westbrook: It’s looking more and more likely that Westy will be released by the Eagles.  He is 31, often injured, concussed twice last season and due over 7 million next year.  I doubt he’ll hook up with a new team unless he really wants to take a pay cut and fight for a job.  This may be the end for yet another great fantasy running back.  I used to hate running backs who held out and wanted to add to their millions, but no longer.  They have a very short shelf life and now that the NFL is a QB centered league, they need to get paid when they can.