Fantasy Football Advice

So I just finished up a 12 Team PPR Mock and thought I’d let you take a look at the raw data.  No auction draft follows the same pattern of your last auction.  There are always players that go for way too much and players that end up going for a dollar that you would have paid 10 dollars for at a different point of the draft.  That is why giving cash values for players isn’t always that helpful.  A lot depends on who needs what at the time.  Patience and knowing when to strike is the biggest key in auctions.  Check out my auction strategy post from back in the day.  We were all given 200 fake dollars to make a fake team through a fake auction. I don’t love my team, but don’t despise it either.  I’ll break this draft and my team down soon, but what do you guys and gal think?  Who is the big winner of the draft?

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You know how you are supposed to visualize yourself doing great things and through the magic of positive thinking you do those things?  Well, that’s crap, but let’s take that crap and compost it and grow a fantasy football team.  Below is an attempt to draft the perfect team.  We’ll only be able to take players that are at or above the ADP from pick #4. So following Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP I can’t pick ADP 1 through 3 when I pick 4th, and then can’t pick ADP 4 through 20 when I pick 21st and so on and on.  Clear as the Gulf of Mexico?

This is an interesting exercise because you would think with time and a large group of players to choose from you wouldn’t have much trouble putting together a beastly team, but it’s not the case. I recruited Andy Miley and Mike Clay to join me in this exercise.

We’ll be  going with QB/RB/RB/Flex/WR/WR/WR/TE/K/DST/7 Bench slots, and non-ppr, just like our Razzball Commenter Leagues.  I plan on doing this for a later draft slot as well.  I’d also love to see what teams ya’ll Razzballers can scrape together doing the same thing. Check here for a spreadsheet to help you pick your team. Post them in the comments.

If you aren’t following me on Twitter, you should click here. Here is my team:

1.4 Maurice Jones-Drew — I’m guessing my compatriots will grab MJD here as well.  This is why I like the #4 pick.  I think they are all very close in the top 4 and having the fourth pick makes it easy to grab the leftovers.

2.21 Jamaal Charles — I came pretty close to grabbing Jennings here.  I’m starting to lean toward trying very hard to have an elite receiver on all my teams and I think Jennings will be right up there, especially with a favorable passing schedule, but ya’ll know my JC love and I couldn’t pass on him with the 21st pick.

3.28 Beanie Wells — I came close to going with Sidney Rice here, but the questions surrounding him are many.  This has me at 3 running backs to start the draft, which I’ve never been that worried about, but this season it worries me more.  But Wells is another one of my guys and I see him having a breakout year. (more…)

The guys over at Fantasy Phenoms invited me to do a 12 team non-ppr mock draft the other day and here is how my team came out.  It had all its fingers and toes thankfully.

Out of all of my mocks so far I feel like this is one of my strongest, or at least most stable.  I had the #4 slot for the first time this season and I believe that had a lot to do with how my team turned out (yet another reason for auction drafts).  With the #4 you automatically get one of the Fab 4 and you don’t have to wait as long as you would with the #1 pick for your next player. And with one of the top 4 your options for the next pick seem better because no matter who you go with you can say, “well, at least I have so and so anchoring my team.”  And so and so is awesome!

So yeah, with my first pick Ray Rice was sitting there just waiting for me.  In non-ppr he’s probably who will be there at #4 and I feel completely fine with that, especially with the Ravens improving their offense.  He might not get quite as many touches, but he should stay a little fresher and have more scoring opportunities.

With my second pick I went with Roddy White.  With Rice in my pocket I felt like I was the best man at a wedding and Jessica Alba was the maid of honor with a drinking problem and a bit of resentment.  So I was feeling pretty good and didn’t want to miss out on a top receiver.  White is easily a top 10 receiver with top 5 upside as long as Ryan has a bit of a comeback season.

With my third pick I was glad to have Knowshon Moreno available.  I would be scared to have him as my #1 back, but at #2 I am happy.  He is the main back in what should be a more run oriented offense while they work at forgetting Brandon Marshall.

My fourth pick was Hakeem Nicks which sets me at two good backs and two good receivers, which is where I like to be at this point.  Nicks is getting a lot of hype, but I am on the hype machine.  Which probably means I should up Eli’s numbers bit.

Steve Smith fell to me with my fifth pick.  The Panther that is.  With his broken arm and down season he can be had at great value with season.  Just make sure you mention his arm in your draft chat in case your league mates aren’t up on current events.  Delhomme put a damper on his numbers last season and Moore put the opposite of damper on his numbers late in the season.

With my sixth pick I went with Mr. Jay Cutler.  I’m grabbing Cutler in most of my drafts and I think he’ll be worth it, but of course he’s not Peyton Manning, so I’m making sure I have a decent backup.

Number seven went to Ahmad Bradshaw.  You’ve seen why I like him and I think he makes a good flex option.  This is a 2 RB league with a flex so my 3rd RB doesn’t have to be an every down starter since I can throw a WR in there if Bradshaw just isn’t getting the carries I think he will/should.

The eighth pick went to another RB I like a lot, Donald Brown.  I believe Bradshaw and Brown make a great flex pair.  They can be interchanged based on matchup and projected use.

Johnny Knox was my ninth pick and my 3rd starter.  Yes, I took a backup RB before I grabbed my starting WR or TE.  I felt like it was more important to have an upside RB than an upside WR.  And Knox is an extreme upside WR.  Right now the whole fantasy world is trying to decide who will be the top receivers under Martz, and Knox is currently the #2, with a chance at being #1 (just like all three of the Bears’ receivers).  I think he is safe for a few deep TDs no matter how he is used.

With upside Knox as my third receiver I wanted a little more stability backing him up.  So with my tenth pick I went with Lee Evans.  The Bills passing game isn’t stable, but Evans is.  He is the best receiver by a wide margin on the team and with TO gone, he will get the bulk of the targets.

With Cutler leading my team I needed a stable backup, and Donovan McNabb is that.  The Redskins’ receivers leave a lot to be desired so I don’t see McNabb having huge games, but he doesn’t throw picks like Cutler and will have Cooley and Moss to make sure he doesn’t get shut out.

My main TE Zach Miller went off the board quicker than usual so I missed out and decided to just grab the best upside pick in round 13 and that was John Carlson.  He was used more as a blocker last season which was the worst way to use a pass catching TE.  This year there will be more 2 TE sets in Seattle which will allow Carlson to go back to catching passes.

I was happy to get a possible starting RB in the 14th round in Arian Foster.  Yes, Ben Tate and Steve Slaton make Foster risky, but not in round 14.  And if Foster starts out strong he’ll make good trade bait to help fill an early hole in your lineup.

Picks 15 and 16 had to go to a defense and kicker.  What a waste.

We are drawing nearer to the end of the mock road.  Take a look see and tell me what you think. If you want to see rounds 1 & 2, 3 & 4, and 5 & 6 do that clicky thing you do so well.

7.01 @FDC_Mike Clay RB Tim Hightower

7.02 @mschauf63 QB Matt Ryan

7.03 @DanielCondeNY WR Steve Breaston

7.04 @TheTonyCincotta QB Donovan McNabb

7.05 @FFSpin WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

7.06 @RookieBlitz RB Donald Brown

7.07 @FSG_BrianJ QB Carson Palmer

7.08 @Gridironguy RB Marion Barber

7.09 @RedRum26 RB Chester Taylor

7.10 @Chetrazzball TE Zach Miller

7.11 @FatKat52 RB Carnell Williams

7.12 @h2h_Corner TE Chris Cooley

7.13 @realanakin QB Alex Smith

7.14 @fantasysprtsdsh WR Antonio Bryant

7.15 @Fantasytaz TE Kellen Winslow

7.16 Rubberduck WR Santonio Holmes

104 overall is a very good spot to grab Marion Barber.  Even if Felix Jones is healthy all season the Barbarian will still get his work in, plus goal line looks.

I have always been a big fan of Antonio Bryant’s, but he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy or out of trouble.  I always seem to give him the benefit of the doubt based on his ability and if you can get him late, I see no reason not to give him a shot.

Bryant’s season will hinge on Carson Palmer’s, which I think is a slight problem.  Palmer could turn things around, but I don’t want to be the one who banks on it.

Donald Brown at 102 is a bargain.  I see him outperforming Addai as the season progresses.

There’s been a lot of love going around for Fred Davis, but unless Chris Cooley exposes himself to coach Shanahan while on a live web cam he should still be the lead TE.  I do worry a little about Davis cutting into his production, but just a little.  As you can see I picked a TE before Cooley went and that was Mr. Zachary Miller who I am very confident will live up to his hype this season.

8.01 Rubberduck WR Julian Edelman

8.02 @Fantasytaz RB Bernard Scott

8.03 @fantasysprtsdsh WR Brandon Tate

8.04 @realanakin QB Chad Henne

8.05 @h2h_Corner WR Malcom Floyd

8.06 @FatKat52 WR Jabar Gaffney

8.07 @Chetrazzball WR Devin Aromashodu

8.08 @RedRum26 WR Lee Evans

8.09 @Gridironguy RB Steve Slaton

8.10 @FSG_BrianJ RB LaDainian Tomlinson

8.11 @RookieBlitz TE Heath Miller

8.12 @FFSpin TE Visanthe Shiancoe

8.13 @TheTonyCincotta RB Laurence Maroney

8.14 @DanielCondeNY WR Kenny Britt

8.15 @mschauf63 QB Ben Roethlisberger

8.16 @FDC_Mike Clay WR Austin Collie

Bernard Scott was taken about the time the Cedric Benson news was coming out.  It’s hard not to think that was the impetus for the pick.  It now looks like Cedric the Offender won’t be suspended, which I think drops Scott further down the list.

Brandon Tate is a boom or bust pick with a crowded receiving group in New England, but he has a ton of talent.  I just worry that Holt, Edelman, and Welker will keep his production down this season.

I can see the appeal of Tomlinson behind that Jets line, but I just don’t believe he has anything left. I rather go for an upside pick than an over the hill on the downside pick.

I’ve been thinking about writing a post about drafting Big Ben as your backup QB, but I’ve had other things to do like not sexually assault college co-eds and not have greasy douche-hair.  But in reality and fantasy, he can be had cheap and will probably only miss 4 games. So I’ll be looking to grab him; not that way you pervs.

Steve Slaton is a nice flier in PPR leagues.  Last year during his horrible season he was decent out of the backfield receiving. The Texans RB situation is fluid and even if Slaton is just a third down back, Schaub will get him plenty of work.

So my third wide receiver Devin Aromashodu might end up as the third receiver on his own team.  I believe the Bears receivers will all get plenty of work and Aroma should sniff the ball around the endzone more than Knox and Hester.

Here is the next installment of the Twitter DraftMaster Mock.  You will find such names as Braylon, Pierre, Montario, and Brett and some others, 32 to be exact.  If you want to see rounds 1 & 2 and 3 & 4, do that clicky thing.

5.01 @FDC_Mike Clay TE Brent Celek

5.02 @mschauf63 TE Tony Gonzalez

5.03 @DanielCondeNY WR Jeremy Maclin

5.04 @TheTonyCincotta RB Brandon Jacobs

5.05 @FFSpin RB Ahmad Bradshaw

5.06 @RookieBlitz RB Fred Jackson

5.07 @FSG_BrianJ RB Michael Bush

5.08 @Gridironguy QB Jay Cutler

5.09 @RedRum26 RB C.J. Spiller

5.10 @Chetrazzball QB Kevin Kolb

5.11 @FatKat52 QB Eli Manning

5.12 @h2h_Corner QB Joe Flacco

5.13 @realanakin WR Pierre Garcon

5.14 @fantasysprtsdsh RB Ben Tate

5.15 @Fantasytaz WR Robert Meachem

5.16 Rubberduck WR Mike Wallace

Ben Tate is falling on my draft board, but at 78th overall I think he still has value even in PPR.  His upside is huge if he can grab that starting RB position by the neck and hold on while Kubiak berates him, he’ll be golden (Tate).

Michael Bush is rising in mock drafts and that was no exception here.  You might have seen my post on Bush and know that I like him.  That is a good thing. He falls a little in PPR with DMac poised to get a lot of receptions, but I still think this was a good spot for him.

C.J. Spiller could be a PPR stud, but with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to navigate I am losing my interest in the Bills’ backfield. Just not enough offensive production to go around. The same goes for the Fred Jackson pick, but only to a lesser extent.  He should be the starter and will get the most production, just not as much as he would have if Lynch had been traded.

I would rather have Ahmad Bradshaw in PPR than Brandon Jacobs, but that is predicated on my belief that Jacobs will tweak something at some point.

My touchstone for quarterbacks this season is Jay Cutler.  If he goes before I grab him I start to get a little worried about who I’ll get at QB and even though the scoring for this fake fake league isn’t great for QBs there are still 16 starters that dilute the pool and I don’t want a junker.  I see no reason Kolb won’t be a top 10 QB this season, with upside for more.

6.01 Rubberduck TE Owen Daniels

6.02 @Fantasytaz RB Montario Hardesty

6.03 @fantasysprtsdsh WR Santana Moss

6.04 @realanakin WR Johnny Knox

6.05 @h2h_Corner WR Braylon Edwards

6.06 @FatKat52 WR Dexter McCluster

6.07 @Chetrazzball WR Derrick Mason

6.08 @RedRum26 QB Brett Favre

6.09 @Gridironguy WR Eddie Royal

6.10 @FSG_BrianJ WR Dez Bryant

6.11 @RookieBlitz RB Darren Sproles

6.12 @FFSpin WR Donald Driver

6.13 @TheTonyCincotta QB Matthew Stafford

6.14 @DanielCondeNY RB Darren McFadden

6.15 @mschauf63 RB Jerome Harrison

6.16 @FDC_Mike Clay WR Devin Hester

Hardesty is growing on me and I like him at 82d overall.  I wouldn’t think you would need to reach any further than that though.  I have a feeling the RBBC in Cleveland will be Hardesty getting 1st/2nd downs with goal line carries with Harrison as the third down back.

Darren McFadden’s value goes up in PPR if they don’t try to make him run between the tackles.  I think he’s worth the risk here.

Darren Sproles will continue to be the third down back and return kicks so I think he has value here.  He was the 27th best RB in PPR last season and goes off the board as the 36th here.

Braylon Edwards could possibly be undervalued due to his well deserved reputation of dropping the ball, but I am not expecting much more than a handful of good games from him, especially when Santonio Holmes gets into the fold.

I like Matthew Stafford as an upside backup, but not as a starter and not this early.  He has the receivers to put up some big numbers, but I still worry about his greenness and o-line.

Derrick Mason was the 17th best PPR receiver last season and is another consistent player like Hines Ward.  I believe the Ravens will throw more this season and Boldin will help free Mason up for a lot of receptions.  Having waited on wide receivers I wanted to make sure I had two starters that I could count on for consistent points.

We move on to rounds three and four of our 16 team Twitter DraftMaster PPR draft or something.  Take a look-see and tell me what you think (as long as it is high praise for me and everything I do). You can check out rounds 1 and 2 by clicking here, or just scroll down a little bit.  Don’t be so lazy!

3.01 @FDC_Mike Clay RB Knowshon Moreno

3.02 @mschauf63 RB Matt Forte

3.03 @DanielCondeNY RD Chris Wells

3.04 @TheTonyCincotta WR Steve Smith (NYG)

3.05 @FFSpin WR Vincent Jackson

3.06 @RookieBlitz WR Steve Smith (CAR)

3.07 @FSG_BrianJ WR Anquan Boldin

3.08 @Gridironguy WR Mike Sims-Walker

3.09 @RedRum26 WR Chad Ochocinco

3.10 @Chetrazzball RB Jahvid Best

3.11 @FatKat52 RB Cedric Benson

3.12 @h2h_Corner RB Felix Jones

3.13 @realanakin TE Antonio Gates

3.14 @fantasysprtsdsh TE Dallas Clark

3.15 @Fantasytaz WR Dwayne Bowe

3.16 Rubberduck RB Joseph Addai

I have been going back and forth on Matt Forte this season, just like every offensive Bear (and usually they are so courteous).  In PPR Forte could completely blow up in Martz’s system, but of course we have to worry about Chet Taylor, who is also very adept at catching passes thrown in his direction.  I like Forte and will be taking him if he falls.  In PPR I think this a reasonable spot for him.

With all the questions surrounding Vincent Jackson, 37th overall is a bit early for me.  I believe this pick was made before the suspension was handed down, but we knew there was going to be a suspension, and there is also the threat of the holdout.  Add to that VJax isn’t the best PPR receiver, even in a full season, and you have trouble.  There is the chance that things will workout, but with 3 games gone for sure, it will be hard to live up to 37th overall.

I am afraid of Addai this season.  Many were last season as well and he still played stud-like, but I see this year as what many thought last year would be.  There is a very good chance that this is Addai’s last season as a Colt and coaches and the front office will want to see if Donald Brown can be the man, which I think he can.

Cedric Benson may be suspended for a few games, but it is all speculative at this point, so I’m not totally against this pick and it could really pay off (if this wasn’t a fake fake football draft).

Yes, I picked another running back.  Jahvid Best is going to be boom or bust, but his boom in PPR could be atomic.  I felt like I couldn’t pass on him and I wasn’t enamored with any wide receivers left on the board.  So I’m punting on receivers and hoping my team can down it at the one.

4.1 Rubberduck RB Ronnie Brown

4.2 @Fantasytaz QB Tony Romo

4.3 @fantasysprtsdsh QB Tom Brady

4.4 @realanakin RB Jonathan Stewart

4.5 @h2h_Corner RB Reggie Bush

4.6 @FatKat52 WR Wes Welker

4.7 @Chetrazzball WR Hines Ward

4.8 @RedRum26 TE Jason Witten

4.9 @Gridironguy TE Jermichael Finley

4.10 @FSG_BrianJ WR Percy Harvin

4.11 @RookieBlitz QB Matt Schaub

4.12 @FFSpin RB Clinton Portis

4.13 @TheTonyCincotta RB Ricky Williams

4.14 @DanielCondeNY TE Vernon Davis

4.15 @mschauf63 RB Justin Forsett

4.16 @FDC_Mike Clay QB Philip Rivers

I almost took Ronnie Brown with my third round pick so I like him 49th overall.  He is a risk, but I still like his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

I think his counterpart Ricky Williams went way too early.  The only way he has a season like last year is if Ronnie goes down and even if he does become the every-down back I worry about him staying healthy as the main man again.

I think Reggie Bush’s name in PPR keeps people high on him.  The Saints found a balance that seemed to work for Bush and the team last season and he ended up as the 29th overall running back in PPR scoring and I don’t see his workload changing much.  If it does, it will be a lighter workload because Pierre Thomas has a breakout year.

I will not own Clinton Portis this season.

Wes Welker is too much of a risk for me, but he is a PPR monster when healthy.  If he defies the odds and plays well from week one this would be the steal of the century.

Justin Forsett is my favorite pick of this round.  I was worried about Lynch being traded to Seattle, but it doesn’t look like it will happen now.  Leon Washington seems like he’ll be ready to go, but able to play and able to play at a high level are two different things.

With my first wide receiver I went with old reliable Hines Ward.  Last season he was the 12th overall WR in PPR and I don’t see that changing with Santonio Holmes gone.  He is aging, but hasn’t seemed to slow down.  I like him a lot this season and he’s always fairly easy to get at value.

I’m currently in a slow 16 team, PPR mock draft with a whole host of the fantasy football twitteratti.  I’ll post the picks and tell you what I think is completely wrong with each one of them, besides my own of course (which are in bold, because I am bold).

1.1 Rubberduck RB Chris Johnson

1.2 @Fantasytaz RB Adrian Peterson

1.3 @fantasysprtsdsh RB Ray Rice

1.4 @realanakin RB Maurice Jones-Drew

1.5 @h2h_Corner WR Andre Johnson

1.6 @FatKat52 RB Frank Gore

1.7 @Chetrazzball RB Steven Jackson

1.8 @RedRum26 WR Larry Fitzgerald

1.9 @Gridironguy RB Michael Turner

1.10 @FSG_BrianJ RB DeAngelo Williams

1.11 @RookieBlitz RB Jamaal Charles

1.12 @FFSpin QB Aaron Rodgers

1.13 @TheTonyCincotta WR Reggie Wayne

1.14 @DanielCondeNY WR Calvin Johnson

1.15 @mschauf63 WR Randy Moss

1.16 @FDC_Mike Clay WR Brandon Marshall

The first round went about like most first rounds go.  Nothing too crazy happened.  Since this is PPR you are going to see more wide receivers go early.  I like Steven Jackson, but I don’t see his upside being any better than 7th overall, which is of course where I drafted him, but I like to at least believe my picks will do better than where I draft them.

The only pick I really worry about is DeAngelo Williams at 10th overall.  He has the talent, but I just see JStew cutting into his production this season and more importantly, into his goal line carries.

Jamaal Charles went early compared to his ADP, but I doubt he would have gotten back to RookieBlitz.

And you know my stance on Aaron Rodgers in the first round.  I ain’t fir it.

2.01 @FDC_Mike Clay RB Rashard Mendenhall

2.02 @mschauf63 WR Roddy White

2.03 @DanielCondeNY QB Drew Brees

2.04 @TheTonyCincotta WR Austin Miles

2.05 @FFSpin RB Ryan Grant

2.06 @RookieBlitz WR Greg Jennings

2.07 @FSG_BrianJ WR DeSean Jackson

2.08 @Gridironguy RB Ryan Matthews

2.09 @RedRum26 RB Pierre Thomas

2.10 @Chetrazzball Shonn Greene

2.11 @FatKat52 WR Sidney Rice

2.12 @h2h_Corner RB LeSean McCoy

2.13 @realanakin WR Hakeem Nicks

2.14 @fantasysprtsdsh WR Marques Colston

2.15 @Fantasytaz WR Michael Crabtree

2.16 Rubberduck QB Peyton Manning

Hakeem Nicks went early, but quite a few members of this group are high on him and his hype machine is in overdrive.  I am also on board, just not quite so early.

I don’t like DeSean Jackson as much as some other wide receivers this season in ppr, but where he went is still reasonable.  Yes, my stinging put downs of others’ picks is not so stingy.

This round followed this year’s fantasy script very closely.  I really can’t see anything that stands out as a steal or bust. My pick of Greene would be a steal in non-ppr leagues, but as it is I think it’s about right, even though I see Greene as a top 10 back with top 5 potential in any format.

So I’m without a top tier wide receiver in a ppr league.  I believe SJax and Greene will be top 10 RBs, but it is a little worrisome to not have a stud wide receiver.  My love of running backs may have leaked over into ppr, but I’m still happy with my picks so far.