Fantasy Football Advice

Tier I

Andre Johnson 20 (10+10) He has been battling some minor injuries and the bi-polar nature of Schaub’s play thus far. Arian Foster doesn’t help much either; I liked the Texans a lot more when they didn’t have a running game. Bottom line is they’re not giving Andre Johnson’s away for free when you open a checking account. They don’t make a lot of “best receiver in the universe” type players.  I’d target him now (offering a high end RB would make a lot of sense) and reap the rewards.

Ray Rice 16 (8+8) The knee contusion is worrisome, as is his mediocre play thus far. It’s hard to quantify what the discount should be on him. Odds are his owner is hurting for production. It’s worth opening up the conversation to see.

DeAngelo Williams 16 (8+8) I know he’s getting older and their offense looks atrocious right now but people need to calm down. The Panthers always run the football effectively and unless I see a long term trend to the contrary, I’m not changing my mind. Like the other players on this list, owners are nervous and scrambling for production to avoid falling out of contention. Make it happen cap’n!

Calvin Johnson 16 (9+7) Stafford’s probably out for a couple more weeks but Calvin doesn’t need an elite QB to produce. Much like Andre Johnson he has been fairly mediocre so far. I love the Fantasy playoff matchups regardless of who’s behind center at that point.

Pierre Thomas 16 (7+9) With Reggie Bush out for the next few weeks minimum, Thomas has the potential to score a boat load of TD’s. His pass catching skills get overlooked and he’s not a player people get pumped up to own. Bottom line is it’s about production and aside from the yardage he’s in as good a position as anyone to put up big digits.

Marques Colston 16 (9+7) Brees’ obsession on spreading the rock around borders on insanity. I have been puzzled by this for the last few seasons. Colston is a player everyone thought could put up the type of numbers that Andre Johnson has the last few seasons. It’s apparent that he’s not going to be a 1,500 yard, 13 TD guy but he still has a high ceiling. Right now he should be pretty easy to acquire.

Tier II

Dez Bryant 16 (9+7) Make no mistake about it- Dez Bryant is a special player. Anyone who watched the Cowboys game on Sunday saw the two near touchdowns that he had in the game. Romo is continuing to target him more and more in the passing game and his opportunities should only improve. The types of plays he makes remind you of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Brandon Marshall. In case you’re not too bright, that’s a good thing. His asking price will clearly be steeper than it was on draft day but if you can swap him for a mid round pick type player I’d make it happen.

Ryan Mathews 15 (8+7) The bigger the hype, the faster they fall. This is exactly why rookies shouldn’t be drafted in the first round. I never valued him there; not even close. I always saw as like a 40-60 ADP type player which is more than fair for someone who’s never played a down in the NFL. If his owner is reasonable, which he ought to be, you should be able to get an enormous discount on him.

Shonn Greene 15 (8+7) This guy I’m actually pretty surprised about. Based on what he did in the playoffs last year and the departure of Thomas Jones, Greene seemed like a sure thing. Somehow LaDanian Tomlinson has risen from the grave but an injury can’t be that far off. Even if he doesn’t get hurt, odds are he’ll wear down (much like Jones did) and Greene should be able to emerge in time for the Fantasy Playoffs. As with Mathews, I’d expect a huge discount on him (that’s why both of these players are in Tier II despite being drafted as first rounders)

Mike Sims-Walker 15 (8+7) David Garrard is more of a factor than anything in Sims-Walker’s disappointing 2010 campaign. He actually had a nice week 2 but was disappointing in weeks 1 and 3. A lot of people are freaked right now about the Jaguars offense (and justifiably so) but remember that MS-W is the unchallenged number one there. He is still capable of putting up big numbers even if Garrard doesn’t get his act together entirely. Buy now while the discounts are deep.

Michael Crabtree 15 (9+6) Regardless of how bad he’s been in the first few games I still believe that Crabtree has a lot of upside. He showed what he was capable of last year when the 49ers went to the spread offense to make Alex Smith more comfortable. They just fired their offensive coordinator who went away from the spread for 2010. It’s hard to tell what will happen from here but the quick and easy solution would be to let Smith go back to the spread where he’s comfortable. That offense fits Crabtree’s skillset perfectly. You have to take chances to win in Fantasy Football.

Kyle Orton 15 (7+8) I can’t imagine he’s still available in your league but if he is, you know what to do. The system in Denver makes him instant Tom Brady lite. Sounds good to me!

Pierre Garcon 14 (8+6) Despite injuries issues and a diminishing role in the offense I like Pierre Garcon down the stretch. He might totally bomb out and be a killer bust the whole season but if you’re looking to buy low he’s a definite player to target. You might even see him out there on Waivers in some leagues.

Ben Roethlisburger 14 (9+5) Ben still has one week of suspension left then a bye in week 5. Most owners that have stashed him thus far are willing to wait; so with each week comes a higher price tag. He should be Tony Romo-ish after returning and you can get him for a lot less than that right now. This will probably be your last opportunity to acquire him at a reasonable price.

Santonio Holmes 14 (9+5) Like Roethlisberger, this will be your last chance to trade for Holmes. The ideal time to strike a deal would have been after Sanchize’s atrocious week 1 performance. Since then he’s played well and the Fantasy world is more optimistic about his potential production. Even so, you should be able to peel him off owners who need immediate production because they are struggling in the standings.

Tier III

Willis McGahee 13 (7+6) Ray Rice’s status for Sunday is still unknown. If his knee contusion keeps him out, McGahee is a great play. Either way he’s a great stash in case Rice gets injured long term.

Peyton Hillis 14 (7+7) There’s too much flux going on in the Cleveland backfield for me to buy in to Peyton Hillis long term. He’s a nice player, a hybrid-type with speed, power, and great hands. I’d grab him wherever you can to start for the near future. Just understand that his production could disappear into the abyss as quickly as it rose from it.

Lance Moore 14 (7+7) The Saints receiving core is a shell game; it’s impossible to predict who is going to do what and when they’re going to do it. Obviously Moore is a must-add coming off such a huge outing but like Hillis, you need to understand that one game doesn’t make a season.

Laurence Maroney 14 (7+7) The fact that Maroney started was a total shocker to me on Sunday. Every indication was that Buckhalter would get the lion’s share of the opportunities. I guess it makes sense when you consider the fact that Josh McDaniel’s likes to think he’s an evil genius just like Belichick. They need to get over themselves and realize that no one cares which mediocre player is starting. From here on out I’m not really sure what Maroney is going to do but he might be a better stash than whatever you’re rolling with currently.

RB stashes in deeper leagues: James Davis, Mike Bell, Rashad Jennings

When we look back on this list I can honestly say there is a decent chance none of these guys make an impact this season.  That is why they are not getting drafted!  But there is also a decent chance a few of them will make some contribution at some point.  These aren’t players I’m targeting in drafts in your normal 10-12 team, 5 bench player type leagues.  These are for you crazies out there in 16 team leagues with 10 bench slots.  You’ve got to fill those slots up and I know looking up no names can be time consuming, so I’ll take a stab at it for you.

Of course not all these guys are no names, especially if you’ve been paying attention in training camp and preseason.  I’m not one to jump on preseason star bandwagons, but I can tell you I rather take a flier on a player who has made a good impression rather than one who took a crap in the coach’s car.   So here are some guys to keep an eye on.

Anthony Dixon, RB, 49ers: After Glen Coffee found his true calling, Dixon saw his chance and took it.  He has looked good in preseason and is backing up Frank Gore who has been known to get nicked up on occasion.

Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins: Back in the olden days Torain was a major sleeper for the Broncos, but was injured and went back to sleep.  Now he’s trying to get that coveted sleeper status back by waiting for all the old and slow and injury prone Indigenous People RBs to fall over, which I can guarantee you, will happen.

Kareem Huggins, RB, Buccaneers: Ok, he may not be a sleeper in fantasy circles now, but to the general schmohawk (I think I served under him in ‘nam) he isn’t well known.  He has played well in preseason and looks like the #2 in Tampa, where Caddy is running on bald tires. I know, I tried that quarter thing on him.

Javon Ringer, RB, Titans: The guy is legitimately good and only needs Dos Mil to turn into Dos Burros for him to have a great season.  He will probably go to CJ’s owner earlier than you want to grab him, but he is worth taking.

Deji Karim, RB, Jaguars: He hurt his thumb, so you have to see how that turns out, but he’s got some loco skills and is worth a bench spot.  He reminds me of a young MJD.  Not MGD, that shizz is nasty.

Jordan Shipley, WR, Bengals: Carson Palmer’s limp noodle arm seems a perfect fit for Shipley’s get open quick skill set.  He’s looked great in preseason and fits the offense well.  He doesn’t play like a rookie or like Snookie.

Sammie Stroughter, WR, Buccaneers: When it comes down to it, he is probably going to be the #2 receiver.  There are a lot of #2′s on that team, but he could be worth it on a deep PPR team.

Eric Decker, WR, Broncos: He’s not much of a sleeper compared to some of these schmos, but he looks like he could be the real deal.  Not the elite #1 WR real deal, but the, get in there, go over the middle, catch anything real deal.  Orton doesn’t have the arm of a goliath, so Decker’s 6’2” long armed frame could come in handy.

Buster Davis, WR, Chargers: Just being a wide receiver on the Chargers makes you a sleeper right now.  Davis is looking like the #3 if he stays healthy.  I’m more of a Legedu Naanee, Naanee, Naanee man myself, but he’s lost the sleeper goo from his eyes.  Davis has the skill if he can stay on the field.

Greg Lewis, WR, Vikings: If he’s remembered for anything it will probably be for making a great catch on a great throw by The Favre to beat the Niners in the waning seconds last season, but as things are in Minnesota he does have the opportunity to step up and contribute.

Stephen Williams, WR, Cardinals: He’s been impressing everyone in camp and outshining Breaston and Doucet.  If the quarterback shituation was a better one I would be higher on him, but as it is, he’s worth a deep look-see.

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: You saw him go all Jerry Rice on the Jets the other night, but of course he’s still just fighting for a roster spot, but sometimes, even in the NFL, lightning can be caught in a bottle, or on the Chargers’ helmets.

Sage Rosenfels, QB, Vikings: He’s not great by any means, but he does have flashes of mean greatness.  If I were pulling all the strings, I would trade Sage to the Cardinals for a Doucet, Williams, Breaston type.  And I do think there is a chance he gets traded to a team where  he could compete for the starting job.  A commenter just asked about a league where you could start 4 QBs and it has a deep bench.  Sage would be worth a flier.

Charlie Whitehurst, QB, Seahawks: His ability is still pretty much unknown, but he is backing up old man Hasselbeck, who has a funky back and a porous line.  You do the sack-back-crack math.

Michael Hoomanawanui, TE, Rams: He should be on the list just because of his awesome name, but he also has a shot at being the Rams starting tight end.  He’s been getting praise from the coaches and doesn’t have much competition.

Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots: He’s being drafted in normal leagues in the 150 range so he’s not unknown, but he has quite a bit of upside in the Patriots offense.  I grabbed him as a backup the other day in a deep league and I was all tingly.

When you’re known as Beanie, it either means most people don’t like you and you spend your days getting wedgies or you’re really good at football and no one knows why the heck they call you Beanie. Either way, the football-playing alter ego of Arizona’s Chris Wells has plenty of fantasy folks excited about his 2010 prospects, including Chet “Doc” Gresham, sheriff of Footballtown at Razzball.com. Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com, however, much prefers Pierre Thomas in point-per-reception leagues. As a result, the two recently took their paces, turned and fired …

Schauf: I hate to be the bearer of bad news here, Doc (if that’s your real name), but it seems as though someone has hacked into your site and swapped out your PPR rankings for a muddled facsimile. At least, that’s all I can assume when I see Chris Wells ranked 12^th among the running backs … five spots ahead of my guy Pierre Thomas. I’ll be happy to get into my thoughts on the two players, but first I’m curious to find out your reasoning. Does “Beanie” simply appeal to your well-documented affinity for propeller hats?

Doc: My propeller hat fetish has nothing to do with this!  Christopher Wells is, how do you say, a bad ass.  I think the crux of my Beanie love comes from his ability to be a feature back, whereas Pierre St. Thomas will always be part of a committee in Sean Payton’s offense and really, that is what PST needs to stay somewhat healthy.  If you think, want, hope, dream of him consistently getting 20 touches a game he won’t last all season and will continue his history of nagging injuries.

Schauf: If it’s a history of nagging injuries what scares you off, then Wells is definitely your man …

I have no problem with Wells the player. I like him and agree with the consensus that he’s clearly the better runner in Arizona’s duo. His draft position, however, doesn’t seem to be in line with realistic expectations for his numbers. Allow me to whip out the nerdulator for a moment and geek this place up: According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Cards’ offensive line sat in the middle of the league in run blocking last year, performing particularly poorly in “Power Success” and “Stuffed” percentage. It’s possible those refer to utilities and baked-potato performance, but I believe they also point to a line that basically couldn’t do its job when most needed. Arizona made some changes, but will they be enough. Even if that group gets better, we’re still talking about an offense that ranked 11^th in scoring last year with a good quarterback. Seems unlikely to me that the whole team scores as much this time around, which simply means fewer touchdowns to spread around. And speaking of spreading around, how many touches can we really expect from Wells – 220 carries, 20-25 catches? Putting aside who’s technically the starter, Tim Hightower will continue to get plenty of work. He has 18 rushing scores through two seasons and caught more passes than any back not named Ray and/or Rice last year.

I’d go on to Pierre Thomas right now, but I must take a drink before I continue.

Doc: Interesting link you have there.  I see the Tennessee Titans were ranked 22nd overall in run blocking.  I feel sorry for whoever their running back was last season.

Yes, the Beanster has had the nagging injury label, but not all labels are made the same.  Think George’s wedding invitations.  Last season Wells played all 16 games and had 176 carries even though he started the season with only 23 in the first 4 games.  Your man P.T. has never played in every game and never topped 147 carries.  P.T. Bruiser, he is not.

As long as we are nerding out, lets see what Football Outsiders says about Wells in short yardage situations last season, “The Cardinals haven’t been aces in goal-line situations in years past, but Wells changed all that with the highest red zone rushing DVOA among backs with at least 20 red zone carries (45.2%).” Now I ain’t no Alfred Einstein, but that sounds good.

With the loss of Warner and Boldin you are going to see a reversion to a more run oriented game. Take Ken Whisenhunt’s first two seasons as offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers where they ran for 2464 and 2263 yards.  This was with a young and not particularly effective Ben Roethlisberger.  Last season with Warner, the Cardinals, as a team, ran for just over 1400 yards.  That number will rise, and Beanie will rise with it.

Schauf: Curses, my own resources turned against me! And then you rub it in by reminding me I was never invited to George’s wedding! Actually, Whisenhunt’s time in the pilot seat for the Pittsburgh offense serves as an interesting frame of reference. The only one of those three years in which the Steelers produced a No. 1 fantasy running back was 2006, when Willie Parker decided to spend all his football lives and then steal some from his teammates Contra-style. With Dookie Davenport striking a fitting pose as the team’s No. 2 back, Parker took 337 handoffs before his career tragically died sometime in 2007. In 2005, Parker got the kind of carry total that Wells can realistically aspire to this year: 255. Should he reach that level, I’d expect more than the four touchdowns that Parker produced, but the fact that Parker managed only four while his team totaled 21 is a lesson either in splitting the pie or Pi. (Not sure which; I never got past 3.14.) Plus, those 2004 and 2005 Pittsburgh teams each led the league in carries while throwing the ball fewer than 380 times. I’m with you on Arizona running the ball more this year, but I’m apparently away from you on just how much more.

Allow me a DeLorean ride, though, as I’m tired of living in the past – which is where you and your Pierre Thomas projections seem to reside. Thomas’ injured nag cost him a whopping three games over the past two seasons, which is one fewer than Frank Gore missed. Larry Johnson totaled a mere 16 games and 140 carries through two seasons before his 2005 breakout. Thomas Jones spent four years being nagged before putting it together in Chicago. DeAngelo Williams was a nicked-up smallish guy with a high of 144 attempts before his 2008. With my precedential campaign out of the way, I’ll go back to FO numbers and something I recently wrote. Like-minded nerds can click that link for the full array of abbreviations, but basically, when you look at things on a per-play basis and adjust for opponent, Thomas has performed like a top-five running back the past two years. Touchdowns are also easier to come by in the offense that has led the league in scoring the past two years. All that’s been missing for Thomas is the touches, and I want to be around when the proper level of touching starts. Wait, I didn’t mean …

Doc: Dookie knew how to squeeze through a tight hole! Anyway, back to Sir Pierre (fancy pants) Thomas and all of these extra carries he’s going to get.  Have you discussed this with Malcolm in the, uh, Sean Payton? He doesn’t seem to be the, give one guy a shot at making it big in the fantasy football world, business.  Since you opened the gate and let the Football Outsiders in, I’ll take another dip in the well(s). In discussing P.T. they say, “He’ll get more opportunities with Mike Bell gone, but he’s never going to handle a 20-carry workload in the Saints offense: The scheme is built around a mix-and- match approach in the backfield, and Thomas is more a system product than a featured back.”

I don’t doubt that IF Thomas gets the bulk of the carries and IF the Saints don’t grab a short-yardage back at cutdown time and IF Pierre can withstand short-yardage carries and the wear and tear of 20 touches a game, he could easily be a second-rounder and win you a whole mantle full of fake-football, fake-pewter trophies, but I don’t like all those ifs sniffin’ around my business.

As far as Beanie’s workload goes, he’s already won the starting job in practice by having more looks from Week 13 on — both overall, 92 to 66, and in the red zone, 17 to 7.  Last season was his rookie year and even though he had the superior raw talent, he didn’t have the experience of Hightower in blitz pickups and in doing all the little things you need to know to stay on the field in different situations.  But with a full season, OTAs and training camp under his belt, he has learned those things and is getting praise from the coaching staff for just that.  We will see him in more passing situations and near the goal line more often this season.  Hightower is the starter in name only.  Whisenhunt is all about seniority and pride and all that military motivational mumbo jumbo, but when it comes down to it, Beanie is the one who will help him keep his coaching job.

P.T. has had his chance.  Reggie Bush proved he can’t be the go-to guy, Mike Bell, is well, Mike Bell, and Thomas couldn’t break out as the main guy.  Is it his size? His nagging injuries?  Payton’s offense? His totally French name? I don’t know, but I do know Wells is ready to roll and you, Mr. Matt Schauf, if that is your real name (just go ahead and switch that F out for a B), better get on board or get out of the way!

Schauf: It’s clear you’re getting more soused with every fictional carry, so I feel the need to cap this bottle. I’m not giving Thomas 20 carries a week, at least not until the Texans trade me there. (Damn … my cover.) In fact, I think if both players are healthy all season, he and Wells should finish about the same in that category. I do, however, expect more receptions and touchdowns for Thomas – something along the lines of the totals that made Ricky Williams the sixth-ranked running back in the PPR RapidDraft scoring system.

Chet Gresham (that’s me!) flaunts his fantasy doctorate as often as possible at Razzball.com. Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. Challenge him anytime in free fantasy football at RapidDraft.com. Follow both on Twitter (Chetrazzball) and (mschauf63).

I was asked by my main man Marv who I thought was flying under the radar in the 7th and 8th rounds this season.  It’s hard for me to see anyone actually flying under the radar since I am so ingrained in fantasy talk and research every day (this is not something to be proud of) that players that may seem like sleepers to some are players I’m discussing and arguing about every day.  So I figured I’d just look at players I am targeting in rounds 7 through 13.  Some may be sleeperish, some just falling further than I think they should, and some are just upside picks who should be going where they are.

Malcom Floyd: ADP 72.9: He keeps moving up and for good reason.  He should easily be the #1 receiver while VJax is suspended/holding out, which might be most of the season.  I’m not reaching for Floyd anywhere earlier than the 7th round but the way things are looking he has value there.

Jay Cutler: ADP 74.4: You know I think he is set for a good fantasy season and at his current ADP you can stack your roster with RBs and WRs before worrying about him.

Ahmad Bradshaw: ADP 77.7: I’ve liked Bradshaw over Jacobs since the olden days of yore and now he’s running with the first team, which is kind of like running with the Sharks or the Jets, but without the finger snapping.  If this continues, his ADP may start to rise, but for now he fits in my 7th round hootenanny.

Michael Bush: ADP 82.4: I wrote some post on how much I love Bush a while back, or was that a Penthouse letter?  Anyway, I see him as the main back in Oakland and McFadden is giving him some more time to shine since The Mac Fad is hurting.

Johnny Knox: ADP 98.8: The Bears receiving corp is all over the place, but Knox has clearly been the most targeted receiver in camp.  You have to take some of that with a grain of salt, which really isn’t very much salt, but this late in the draft it makes it much easier to take on the risk.

Donald Brown: ADP 103.1: There is a very good chance this is Joe Addai’s last season in Indianapolis and the head shmoes are going to want to see if Brown can handle being the #1 guy.

Derrick Mason: ADP 109.3: Mason finished last season as the 17th ranked WR and was drafted as the 37th.  He is now going as the 42nd WR and should easily be top 30.  He’s safe without a huge amount of upside, but that’s sometimes what you need to succeed.

Arian Foster: ADP 101.6: Even though the hype machine is in overdrive on Foster, his ADP is still favorable for a possible starter on a good offense.

Devin Hester: ADP 114.5: Hester fits Martz’s quick hitting, pass happy offense well, and when it comes down to it, could be the biggest beneficiary, especially in ADP.  And he’s also the safest receiver of the 4ish.  I feel good about drafting him in the 10th round every time.

Zach Miller: ADP 117.3: Once again, another of “my” players.  And he could easily be the player I own the most across the board this season.  I don’t even look at where I’m getting him anymore.  I just see what TEs are off the board and if it’s Miller’s turn, it’s Miller’s turn.

Laurence Maroney: ADP 117: Probably my least favorite of this list (whoops, forgot about LJ), but also someone with a lot of upside if he can get his shizz sorted.  He went on a TD tear for a stretch last season and should once again be given the chance to be the main guy, especially with Morris, Taylor and Faulk olding up the depth chart.

Larry Johnson: ADP 149.9: I can’t stand that I keep ending up with him in mocks, but I do, so I should stick him on here.  You all know my faith in Clinton Portis is similar to that of Bill Maher’s in God, so LJ seems like the only guy who could possibly do something, unless of course they trade for Marshawn Lynch.

Early Doucet: ADP 152.9: I’m not sold on Steve Breaston and we could be seeing a battle for the #2 position.  This late he’s droppable if Breaston becomes the clear winner.

Jacoby Jones: ADP 153.2: See above, but I like Kevin Walter even less than Steve Breaston, much less actually.

These aren’t bottomless pit deep sleepers.  They’re more like shallow grave sleepers, as in, grab these guys and prepare shallow graves for your competitors, or just let them lie there, either or.  These are guys I like at their current ADP and am targeting like when I’m driving and an old lady crosses the street (and I get out and help her safely across).

Beanie Wells — People are reading way too much into Tim Hightower running with the first team in OTAs. Ken Whisenhunt is loyal to his veterans, at least in formalities, but Beanie has already taken over the lead back role by having more looks from week 13 on, both overall, 92 to 66 and in the red zone, 17 to 7.  And now that Kurt Warner is gone, The Whiz will be able to implement his run first ways.  in 2004 his Steelers ran 63% of the time and in 2005, 59%.  This with with a young Ben Roethlisberger.  With Warner, the last three years the Cardinals ran 40%, 35% and 38% of the time.  There is no reason to think that percentage isn’t going to shoot up with Leinart at the helm.  Wells is a better back than Hightower and will continue to widen that gap as the season progresses.  Add to that, his ADP is falling around the end of the second round, beginning of the third, and you have some voluptuous value.

Ahmad Bradshaw — Bradshaw is the better back of the running back duo in New York.  That of course doesn’t mean he will end up out fantasy pointing his way to stardom, but I think it gives him a leg up.  Brandon Jacobs will probably remain the lead back, but I don’t trust his ability to stay intact.  His running style lends itself to multiple beatings on each play.  He is a large, large man, but also somewhat of a wuss. Now, I’m not saying I could take him.  He’d beat me like a rented mule, but if both backs are somewhat injury prone, I like the one that has the ability to evade tacklers.

Justin Forsett — The Seahawks offensive players don’t exactly instill much confidence, but Forsett is by far the most explosive player on the team.  Julius Jones is done for, done in and Crocodile Dundee, but not in the “This is a knife” kinda way.  Jones inexplicably remained the lead back last season even after Forsett ran wild while he was down with an injury. But the good news is that there’s a new coach in town and I believe talent will win out.  Another good sign is that Jones wasn’t the hammer last season.  It wasn’t as if Forsett would help them get into the red zone and then JJ would punch it in.  Forsett actually had more looks in the red zone and the same amount inside the 5 yard line.  I don’t believe the Seahawks will have a ton of scoring opportunities, but with Forsett’s ability to catch the ball and the large skill gab between Jones and himself, I see a productive year for a good price.

Donald Brown — I’m not dissing Joseph Addai here (do people still say diss?), but I’m just looking at the long term ramifications of giving Addai the bulk of the work all season.   Do the Colts want to bring Addai back next season?  Do they want to give him a healthy raise?  If they really need him next season, do they want to give him big numbers to bargain with? Would they rather work Donald Brown, the younger and cheaper back, into the starting role?  Do they want to not give Brown a lot of looks when there is a very good chance he will be the starting back next season?  Not at his price, No, No, Yes, and No.  I don’t believe Brown is an extremely superior back to Addai, but I do believe he will be more capable in this, his second season, and as long as he doesn’t get injured like last, he should do well.

Michael Bush — It has yet to be seen how the running back position will play out in Oakland, but as you can tell, I think Bush will become the lead back.  And with an improved team that might be worth his ADP of 99.  Check out my post on him.  I think it has stood the test of time, just like Shakespeare.

Larry Johnson — Now, I loathe to ever mention Larry Johnson’s name in polite company, but thankfully you ain’t all that polite.  If LJ’s ADP wasn’t 155 I wouldn’t even take a second glance, but it is and I did.  There is a lot of noise coming from beat writers and even our man Jason La Canfora that LJ could be the lead back in Washington.  Clinton Portis had about 12 different body parts tweaked, strained or pulled at one point last season and I just don’t see him able to handle a full load.  Add to that Shanny’s ability to squeeze running back goodness from a turd and you have LJ on this list.

The Raiders have been the butt of many jokes the last few seasons and rightfully so.  And I don’t see them becoming a contender anytime soon, but I do see them improving with Jason Campbell leading the way.  Yes, JC wasn’t wanted by an awful Redskins team, but they had their sights set on McNabb and were looking for a change.  Campbell has his flaws, but will be much more consistent than JaMarcus Russell.  The Raiders had trouble keeping drives going with Russell flailing away like a sick wildabeast.  And they were often stuck throwing the ball because they needed to come back from deficits and with JRuss leading the way, that wasn’t the best situation to be in.

So, let’s take it for granted that Campbell is at least a baby step up from the big fat baby Russell.  I’ve already talked about how that will help one of the many Miller tight ends in fantasy, but it will also help our man Michael Bush. Last season there was a three-headed monster at running back for Oakland, which was way too many mouths to feed for such a poor offense. They really needed to go on food stamps.  So let’s cut the monster into thirds and see what we can find:

Darren McFadden: 104 carries, 357 yards, 3.4 y/car, 1 TD |  21 rec, 245 yards, 11.7 y/rec, 0 TD

Justin Fargas: 128 carries, 492 yards, 3.8 y/car, 3 TD |  17 rec, 113 yards, 6.6 y/rec, 0 TD

Michael Bush: 123 carries, 589 yards, 4.8 y/car, 3 TD |  17 rec, 105 yards, 6.2 y/rec, 0 TD

Now if we look at this logically (not always the smartest move when looking at an Al Davis run team) we find that one player out played the others in the running game and another did the same in the passing game and somehow those are the two players the Raiders kept.  They decided to let 3.8 yard a carry, 30 year old, Justin Fargas walk during the off season which leaves us with only two!  And there can only be one!! At least that’s what Highlander aficionado Tom Cable said earlier this year.  Depending on how things went, that could have upped Bush’s value a lot if he was named the main guy and it might have moved him out of sleeper status.  But, coach Cable changed his mind and it looks like he wants to see them split touches. So, as it is, we have a question mark at the position right now.  And that’s good.

Darren McFadden has shown that he cannot run between the tackles (or break tackles) and also has trouble holding onto the ball.  Michael Bush has proven that he can run between the tackles and can average 4.8 yards while doing so. Last season Justin Fargas took away some goal line opportunities from both Bush and McFadden, but Bush does have about 35 pounds on McFadden and should win the goal line duties for this season.  Even on a bad team, you add Fargas’ attempts to Bush’s and you have yourself a decent season at 1k yards and 6 TDs. Now that of course is conjecture and don’t want to make a con out of ject and ure, but it’s safe to say his numbers would have been better.

In comes the savior JC!! WWJD? Well, hand the ball off to Bush of course!  Darren McFadden is clearly the better receiving back and should get passing downs.  Yes, that hurts Bush a little, but thems the breaks.  Of course that leaves early downs and goal line looks for our man Bush.  With no Fargas and no JaMarcus Russell, that spells a solid year.  Currently his ADP is around 105.  105!  There are plenty of backs going before him that we know won’t be getting early downs and goal line looks.  That late you are choosing between the Minnesota defense and Steve Breaston.  Let me make the choice for you, Michael Bush.

At this point Malcom Floyd is a sleeper.  Everything is looking great for him fantasy-wise.  He has a great quarterback in Philip Rivers (must be a tiny guy if he’s inside another guy, but whatever), he is finally a starter, and Vincent Jackson will miss some game(s) because of his drunkenness, and VJax possibly could also miss a big chunk of games if he holds out.

But I say, “at this point,” because this idea is spreading through the fantasy world like Mrs. O’Leary’s cow just kicked over a lantern full of Malcom Floyd sleeper articles. Who knows how long Floyd’s ADP will remain where it is.  Right now it is at 112 which still makes him a sleeper-worthy pick up, because even if VJax gets back on board and is only suspended a game or two, Floyd is still the #2 wide receiver on a darn good offensive team.

As you can see Mr. Floyd’s ADP over at Fantasy Football Calculator is on a rapid rise.

What you have to do at this point is weigh your options.  If you can grab him in the tenth round you are golden, but say he moves up to the 7th round?  Yes, he has the upside to go there, but his downside can be pretty down when you think that he could have Gates, VJax, Sproles and all of those random WR’s that San Diego seems to get into the endzone, all taking looks away from Floyd.

So you have the Three Floyds, the VJax-less Floyd that becomes the #1 receiver on a high scoring offense, the Floyd who gets a lot of reps with Rivers while VJax is pouting and who builds up a good repertoire with Phil, that leads to more looks even if Jackson doesn’t miss much time, and then the Floyd who gets hyped into going too high and gets lost in the shuffle of a lot of good offensive weapons.

I’ll go with the Malcom in the middle, which makes him a good pickup as a 3-4th receiver. And a dead ringer for coach Payton.  Just watch that ADP and don’t get all crazy!