Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math
December 21, 2009
Category: 2009 Fantasy Football, 2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers
This will be the final edition of “Sleeper Math” for this season but it’ll be back next year. For the remainder of the season we’re going to focus on matchups for the playoffs, Keepers, and setting the table for the offseason. Here at Razzball we’ll be active all the year leading up to next year’s draft. Speaking of next year’s draft we’re going to have free draft guides that will blow you away. Why, you ask? I guess you’ll just have to wait until August 2010 to find out! I do want to thank all of our readers because without you there’d be no website. We hope that we’ve been able to help you be more competitive in your league and assure you that next season we’ll be back even stronger!
If you’re reading this chances are you’re in the finals of your league. If you’re in the finals chances are your team is fairly stacked and you don’t need a lot of help. But as I preached last week I think it’s important to finish strong and roster the best team possible because you never know. In addition by snagging players off the wire you’re taking them away from your opponent.
The other group of active owners is people in Keeper leagues. In some leagues you have to declare your Keepers at the end of this season. In others you declare before the draft next year. Either way you should be looking to bolster your roster with as many young studs as possible to give you more options and your opponents fewer.
And while you’re here make sure you enter our contest!
Worth a Waiver Claim
Jerome Harrison – for obvious reasons…
Maurice Morris – He’s getting the bulk of the carries. Opportunities equal production or something like that.
Darren McFadden – in PPR you should take a look at him. McFadden’s had several productive weeks in row, particularly in the passing game.
Ryan Moats – There’s no telling what crazy man Gary Kubiak has in store for Fantasy owners this week. Arian Foster got benched after fumbling and Ryan Moats got the most carries with 13. Would I play him in Week 16? Probably not but you have to put a claim on him regardless.
Michael Bush – Justin Fargas suffered a knee injury (the extent of which we’re not really sure right now) and Bush took over, gaining 144 yards. It’s unknown at this point whether Fargas will play in week 16 but the Raiders will be facing the Browns; that’s reason enough to put a claim in on him.
Jeremy Maclin – He was dropped in a lot of leagues due to the injury and missing Sunday’s game. Definitely worth adding to your roster in case you need another starter.
Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)
Josh Morgan – This early season bust has benefited from the improved San Francisco passing game. He put together seven catches this week (one for a touchdown). You might have more useless junk on your roster than him.
Chris Brown – As I mentioned above we’re not really sure what the end game will be in the backfield in Houston. More than likely you’ll want to avoid the situation at all costs.
Kenneth Darby – The Swine Flu wreaked havoc on the Rams this week, including SJax but he still played. Like all the players in this group you’re not expecting production unless there’s an injury at the top of the depth chart.
Aaron Brown – Maurice Morris played well (as expected) and should be in no danger of losing his job. If there is some sort of an injury, however, the speedy Aaron Brown could step in and be productive.
Tyrell Sutton – DeAngelo Williams left Sunday’s game with an injury. Sutton’s probably completely irrelevant for this year but he’s worth stashing if you have room in leagues where you don’t have to declare Keepers until next season.
You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew
December 22nd, 2009 at 4:36 am
[...] do like Fanhouse’s and Razzball’s mention of Josh Morgan and could see him as a risky grab if you need a plug at WR3 this [...]
December 22nd, 2009 at 5:35 am
Just like you said: I’m in the title game and I’m higher on the waiver list than my opponent, so even though I don’t really NEED anybody, I want to do my best to screw him over and nab the best available guy on the board. So who is it: Jason Snelling (Buf), Jerious Norwood (Buf), Mike Crabtree (Det) or Mike Bush (Cle)?
@Josh: If it were me I’d probably snag Crabtree. Fargas is supposed to be able to play this weekend. If we knew Fargas was going to miss this game then I’d say grab Bush for sure (it’d be tough not to start him, also). But the Lions are just as much of a cake matchup and Crabtree could have a nice outing.
December 22nd, 2009 at 6:02 am
Yeah, I like Crabtree too because my opponent already has good backs (AP, Jamaal, Daily Show, Ganther, Fargas), but he has dick at WR (Jennings, Housh and…Devin Thomas?).
I take it from your response though that you think the Burner is playing on Sunday? Otherwise, one of those Atlanta backs (Snelling?) seems hard to pass up vs. Buffalo, no?
@Josh: there are too many unknowns in that backfield regardless of whether or not Turner plays. Starting any of those guys would be a huge risk. How the hell did he get to the finals with such horrible receivers?
December 22nd, 2009 at 7:31 am
This is an excellent question. He finished 7th in points but sneaked into the #4 seed in the final week of our regular season (week 14). Then he beat the #1 seed this week thanks to those backs (and Jennings) and now here we are.
December 22nd, 2009 at 7:38 am
As for my own starters, the only spot where I’m really stuck is my WR2. Definitely starting VJax, but after him I’ve gotta choose between Megatron, Meachem, Smith (NYG) and MSW (well, and Crabtree too if I pick him up). I started Meachem last week and he didn’t do shit but it didn’t hurt me. I don’t like MSW on the road and the Panthers have a good pass defense, so I guess I’ll either roll the dice again with Meach or maybe give my #2 pick Megatron some love for old time’s sake.
December 22nd, 2009 at 8:15 am
Ravens DST @ Pit, or 49ers vs. DET?
PPR: Addai vs NYJ, Harrison vs. OAK, or F Jackson @ ATL
PPR: H Ward vs BAL, Harvin @ CHI, Cotchery @ IND
@Josh: I’ll take a dinged up Megatron. He’s capable of 25 any week even if he’s injured.
@Matt B: 49′ers, Addai, Cotchery
December 22nd, 2009 at 8:50 am
I need a D for the Finals. Currently have Chargers (@ Ten), which scares me even though they played ok last week against a good Cincy offense. I put a waiver claim in for Falcons (vs. Buf). Not much else out there: Buffalo, Carolina, Titans, Skins, Chiefs, Raiders…ugh.
Any suggestions?
December 22nd, 2009 at 9:46 am
Who do you like as a better claim? Harrison or Morris?
I know Harrison just went all Peter North last week, but he does have Mangini as a coach who could decide to try out the punter at RB next week and Morris is getting all the touches..
BTW – Jim Zorn rules for calling the football game like a really bad game of madden by trying anything when he was losing. I wish he would have took it a step further and called the fg block defense on 2nd downs towards the end of the game.
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:09 am
This setup got me to the finals with credit to you guys, so I’m seeking one
last head check (12-team, redraft, 6
FP/pass TD, 1 FP/10 ret yd for W/R).
Mainly considering Ochocinco over Colston in case NO decides to rest him or
he drops another sure TD.
Figure on dumping Barber and Morris for Scaife/Williams/Cosby/Davis on
Friday.
Any other pickup suggestions (I’ll post her [yes, her] lineup next for
reference)?
Based on my bench, one might surmise there are no weekly waiver
requirements for adds in this league.
Current Starters
QB Matt Schaub
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Marques Colston
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
TE Brent Celek
W/T Miles Austin
W/R Cedric Benson
K Garrett Hartley
DEF Arizona (home vs. STL)
Bench
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Calvin Johnson
WR Josh Morgan
RB Jerome Harrison
RB Maurice Morris
RB Marion Barber
Watched Players
TE Bo Scaife (after what CIN just did to SD with an undrafted TE)
WR Derrick Williams (for possible ret yd)
WR Quan Cosby (for possible ret yd)
WR Andre’ Davis (for possible ret yd)
Other KR
DEF CIN
DEF CLE
DEF ATL
DEF DAL
DEF IND
DEF OAK
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:10 am
Here’s her lineup for reference.
She has a solid team other than DEF (BUF, NYG) and she’ll probably let it
ride.
There are a number of decent DEF available but it might be a bit
unsportsmanlike for me to pick up 6 all at once to
block her since I obviously wouldn’t play them.
Yahoo projects 112-110 in her favor right now but she could add a couple if
she puts in the G-Men.
Should be a good matchup for the finals.
Current Starters
QB Drew Brees
WR Brandon Marshall
WR Mike Sims-Walker
RB Frank Gore
TE Heath Miller
W/T Greg Jennings
W/R Fred Jackson (killing us on returns)
K David Akers
DEF Buffalo
Bench
DEF New York Giants
RB Laurence Maroney
WR Roy Williams
Schmohawk 1
Schmohawk 2
Schmohawk 3
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:34 am
I managed to snag Jonathan Stewart, Maurice Morris, and Michael Bush, and I already have LT, Knowshon, and Snelling on my roster. I’m thinking LT and Stewart are must-starts, assuming Williams remains hurt, but which of the rest makes the best flex option?
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:39 am
Pick 3 in 0.5 PPR – Mendenhall v Balty, Charles @Cincy, Harrison v Oak, Forsett @GB
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:35 pm
@Drew: dude in the finals of my primary league starts housh as his #2 WR and julius jones as his #2 RB. he managed to finish ahead of my to snag a bye, while i finished 4th despite the most points and a starting lineup of brees, wayne, white, sjax, gore, and witten/olsen, with ryan grant to stick in for gore or sjax on occasion.
this is why i hate fantasy football.
julius motherf’ing jones. and he’s been his #2 all season. same with housh.
December 22nd, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Hey guys…thanks to your advice in starting Cribbs, I’m in the championship game! Now I’m really in a bind though as I have Wayne and Clark on my team and the combination of them playing the Jets and the fact that they may only play a half has me really nervous about starting either of them. This is a PPR/Kick-return yardage league so here are my options:
WR:
Steve Smith (CAR)
Megatron
Josh Morgan
Cribbs
TE:
Dave Thomas
Dante Rosario
Anthony Fasano
I was thinking of going with Smith, Mega and Morgan as my WR’s and rolling the dice with Dave Thomas (assuming Shockey doesn’t play).
Thoughts?
December 22nd, 2009 at 1:32 pm
haha asked u whether to take a shot on jerome harrison (or ryan grant) last week, but u shot that down. I won anyway so it’s all good. Anyway, this week Grant against an average Seattle run defense or take a shot w Bush playing Cleveland, Harrison playing oakland, or Jason Snelling playing Buffalo. I appreciate ur help. Also Roddy White against Buffalo, or pick up Crabtree against Detroit?
@stumanji: With Brohm starting I think I’d like Atlanta over SD.
@sal: I think Harrison is the better pickup. Morris has a tough matchup.
December 22nd, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Do you like Morris or Bush better? Also, Bengals or 49ers D/ST? Thanks!
December 22nd, 2009 at 2:40 pm
PPR League: Who do you think are the 2 best RB options for this week?
T. Jones @ ATL,
B. Wells @ STL,
P. Thomas @ TB,
J. Harrison @ OAK
Thanks
December 22nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Hey, I’d post my question here but its really long lol… if you could go to the forums to answer, I’d really appreciate it! Thanks
http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=5796
@Rnunnerley: Wells, Jones
@Tecmo Super Bowl: Morris, 49ers
@Dominator: I like Harrison, but Grant is a little safer.
@Marvin N.: I think you’re on the right track.
@Jake In Columbus: I could see going with Ocho. They need a win and he is by far their best threat. Payton says he won’t rest his players, so I think you’re ok either way since both have good matchups.
December 23rd, 2009 at 10:53 am
Big money Super Bowl – Pick 3 in 0.5 PPR – Mendenhall v Balty, Charles @Cincy, Harrison v Oak, Forsett @GB, Norwood v Buff.
Thanks in advance!