Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math Week 9
November 03, 2009
Category: 2009 Fantasy Football, 2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers
Formula:
Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity
Tier I
Jason Witten 17 (9+8) – I know that Miles Austin is catching everything in Dallas right now but there’s no way this pace continues. Think: Steve Smith, New York Giants. I still believe in Jason Witten and his track record.
Brian Westbrook 16 (8+8) – He’s still worth the gamble considering how low his value is. Concussions can be really tricky and he is injury plagued as it is but you have to love his ceiling still. If his owner thinks his value is anything even close to his ADP tell him/her to get lost.
Calvin Johnson 17 (9+8) – It’s disconcerting that his injury has lingered like this. All indications were that he was going to play this Sunday but he didn’t. I still like him as a 2nd half of the season comeback player.
Anquan Boldin 16 (8+8) – Similar to the Calvin Johnson situation. Dude’s a warrior. Wants a new contract in the offseason. He played after having a broken face last season. The Cardinals have a cupcake Fantasy Playoff schedule. I’ll double down on Anquan.
Steve Slaton 16 (8+8) – What is Gary Kubiak thinking? I know Slaton’s been fumbling the ball all over the place but I don’t understand how you can go from exclusively featuring somebody to just yanking them out of the game entirely. There might be something else going on in Houston that we don’t know about yet. It’s just hard to believe that Slaton’s going to be sitting on the bench the rest of the season. Right now is a good time to capitalize on those fears.
Tier II
Jonathan Stewart 15 (8+7) – Big game on Sunday for this goal line back with 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. He has been such a disappointment this season for fantasy owners but don’t be surprised if he has a solid 2nd half of the season.
Jerricho Cotchery 15 (8+7) – He had a nice game on Sunday. I really like him from here on out to deliver value. He appeared very healthy on Sunday and it looks like the Jets were telling the truth when they said they just didn’t want to rush him back.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 15 (8+7) – Doc talked about how easy the Seahawks have it down the stretch in terms of the passing defenses they’ll face. I really like him as a second half Sleeper.
Malcolm Floyd 15 (7+8) – I’ve had Floyd on here as Sleeper in Tier III before but the Chargers made him a starter and they waived Chris Chambers. Their offense has been so solid all year; Floyd’s upside could be really huge. I can’t imagine he’s out there on waivers (if he is, grab him). See if you can make a cagey trade for him where you don’t give up a ton.
Jamaal Charles 15 (8+7) – Larry Johnson’s days in KC are all but numbered. Charles is another player that’s been a Sleeper Math veteran, always in Tier III. I am moving him up to Tier II because the word is out- everyone knows. Even so no one’s had a chance to see him play a game yet so there’s still a small (very, very small) window of opportunity for you to grab him in a trade.
Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – With Owen Daniels out for the season Schaub is going to need a new target in the middle of the football field and on short to intermediate routes. Kevin Walter should see an increase in both targets and receptions from here on out.
Tier III
Ryan Moats 14 (8+6) – I refuse to put him in Tier II yet. Doc and I were talking about Moats last month when Slaton was struggling. Since then he’s turned it around and just like everyone else I was shocked to see him benched like that. Odds are Gary Kubiak was using last weeks game to “Show Steve Slaton who’s Boss.” There have been a lot of elite backs who have struggled with fumbling the football. Slaton will get his ego back in check, work on the fundamentals, and find his way back in to Kubiak’s good graces. That being said you need to put a waiver claim in on Moats just in case.
Jerome Harrison 14 (8+6) – Another week, another Jerome Harrison… Here’s another Sleeper Math veteran. We saw what he was able to do earlier in the season when Lewis was injured. Hopefully he gets hurt again and Harrison can get the opportunity to start that he deserves.
Maurice Morris 14 (7+7) – Kevin Smith left last Sunday’s game with a minor injury. Morris came in and played well in his stead. The coaching staff said Smith could’ve returned but they were being precautionary. It sounds like he’ll be ready to go this Sunday. Even so this makes Morris a really nice stash in case Smith’s injury is worse than reported or he re-aggravates it.
Mike Thomas 14 (7+7) – My esteemed colleague, Mr. Jones will be dropping “Targets” on the website this afternoon. He will discuss, much more eloquently than I can, why this guy is good pickup.
Tashard Choice 14 (8+6) – There’s reason to question whether Barber and Felix Jones can manage to stay healthy. Choice’s value is back down again, to waiver wire level in most leagues. He proved what he can do when he gets an opportunity. Stashing him for the second half is not a bad idea.
Justin Forsett 14 (7+7) – He has continued to get more and more looks in the offense while Julius Jones is boring us all to death. Forsett is one of the best second half Sleepers- he is a player who could leapfrog to the top of the depth chart either via injury to Jones or superior skill set.
Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot will bother him the rest of the season. At some point he could injure it worse than it already is. If that happens Danny Ware will become the change of pace back to Jacobs and you could expect him to be solid producer for the G-Men.
You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew
November 4th, 2009 at 3:53 am
I need a DEF for this week. Arizona vs. Chicago or Seattle vs. Detroit.?
@cleaver596: Arizona
November 4th, 2009 at 5:37 am
@Drew:
Do you like Slaton more than Moreno the rest of the way in a non-PPR league?
Thanks.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:37 am
Floyd or Sims Walker and Flacco or Romo?
Thanks!
November 4th, 2009 at 6:11 am
@Scott: my two cents, I’d say Sims-Walker and Romo. Tony’s really gotten it together over the past few weeks thanks in large part to Miles Austin.
I’ve got my own Floyd question though: he’s still sitting on waivers in my league and I’m definitely enticed, but I don’t want to drop someone who may be more useful. Are any of these guys droppable in order to snag Floyd: Felix Jones, Mike Bell, Beanie Wells?
November 4th, 2009 at 6:25 am
Give Charles a start over Mendenhall in a PPR league?
@Scott: Floyd, Flacco
@Josh: if you are deep at running back, i’d lose mike bell.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:38 am
@Drew: wow, you’d really rather have Floyd than Sims-Walker? I know he did bupkis last week, but he’s put up quality numbers in every other game he’s played this season. Do you think Thomas is on his way to usurping him as the Jags’ #1? obviously Floyd is never going to be the #1 in SD, barring injury.
@Josh: teams are going to keep honing in on Vincent Jackson. Floyd is a very talented receiver. I don’t have anything against Sims-Walker. Both have favorable matchups but I typically lean toward the better QB and Rivers is da man.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:52 am
Drew, MG,
Given Matt Ryan’s tough going for the rest of the season and your advice to sell if possible, does that advice extend to Roddy White as well?
I own him in a 12-team non-PPR league.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:58 am
drop bradshaw for charles in a td league?
@Christopher: it does make sense to sell Roddy but he hasn’t put up big numbers. You might not be able to get enough to make it worth your while…
@Fresh: dropping Bradshaw is tough…. if you have no worse player on your team I’d do it.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:01 am
@Drew: There’s a good chance this won’t get accepted anyway, but just in case, before I send it (always like to have a second opinion), what do you think of me offering Rodgers, Bradshaw and Steve Smith (NYG) for Phil Rivers and Larry Fitz?
November 4th, 2009 at 7:15 am
@Drew: Thanks Drew – I was hoping to take advantage of his 100/1 on Mon night.
What do you think of this trade in a 10-team PPR:
My Lynch and Nicks for
His Westbrook and Boldin
Team as is:
RB = CJ/Rice/Moreno/Lynch (w/ Stewart and Wells on WW)
WR = Collie/Smith (NYG)/Austin/Rice (MIN)/Nicks
November 4th, 2009 at 7:16 am
Drew, forgot to add Megatron to WR corps in the post above
November 4th, 2009 at 7:18 am
@Drew: What about my White for his Fitzgerald?
@Christopher: I like the first trade if you can get it done. It’ll take more than just Roddy White to get Fitz from someone. I would add Lynch to that trade and still do it.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:04 am
@Drew:
Asked earlier, may have gotten lost in the thread…
Do you like Slaton more than Moreno the rest of the way in a non-PPR league? I’m thinking of offering Moreno for Slaton in a trade as Slaton’s value has never been lower (and perhaps justifiably so).
Thanks.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:05 am
Would you trade Greg Jennings and Pierre Thomas for Steven Jackson in a keeper league? Sims-Walker is my backup WR.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:14 am
@Drew: you know roddy white is on pace for 1200ish yards and 10+ TDs? i mean, he’s not blowing people away with his numbers a la moss in 2007, but at the end of the year that should put him right around the top 7-8 WRs, which is where he was generally drafted.
@cleaver596: on paper i’d say arizona, but then again paper told me to play arizona last week at home v. carolina and the human turnover, yet the netted me a -2 and was a huge reason i lost my first matchup of the season (lost by 10 points).
November 4th, 2009 at 8:16 am
Do you trust Hasselbeck enough for the rest of the season to trade away Rodgers for a stud WR or RB?
November 4th, 2009 at 8:18 am
Does Chambers have any fantasy value in KC?
November 4th, 2009 at 8:19 am
Someone offered me Larry Fitz and Jon Stewart for Ronnie Brown and Percy Harvin.
Is this a no brainer?
November 4th, 2009 at 8:28 am
@stumanji: I’d say no unless the rest of your team is ridiculously stacked. Maybe try and package Rodgers and a lesser RB/WR in exchange for a better RB/WR and a QB who is between Rodgers and Hass in quality (like, maybe Favre or Palmer or Flacco).
November 4th, 2009 at 9:00 am
@Drew: Thanks again Drew!
In my 10-team PPR league I found Julius Jones on the WW.
Is his match-up against DET too juicy to ignore?
Right now I have in the line-up:
Rice @ CIN
CJ @ SF
With Moreno on the bench against PIT, I pick up Jones and put him CJ’s spot. I don’t expect CJ to go off against SF like he did v. JAC.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:54 am
@Falcon: Not necessarily a no-brainer. I think it depends on your team needs, but the jump from Harvin to Fitz is greater than the dropoff from Brown to Stewart, IMO.
@Howie: I think They could be about equal going forward with Moreno getting more goalline looks. Slaton’s upside is higher if you are looking to take risks, but Moreno is safer.
@Jamarcus: Unless SJax gets some offensive help I like the Jennings and PT side long term.
@stumanji: I wouldn’t trust Hass. His line is too iffy, as is Rodgers, but I wouldn’t want to rely on Hass.
@Guy: Depends on how deep your league is, but he didn’t have it in SD with a very good QB throwing to him. I say no.
@Falcon: It’s close. Depends on needs. If you have good RB depth do it, but otherwise don’t.
@Christopher: I love Jones matchup, but you can’t sit CJ.
New post up. Sling your questions up there!