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First allow me to send my condolences to any of you that have already had your draft and in said draft you drafted Jordy Nelson. This is one of the main reasons I won’t allow my leagues to draft more than five days before the start of the season. Ranking players within the same position is relatively easy, but comparing players across positions is a much more difficult task. However, it is an essential exercise in order to figure out who to draft, and when. Using my 2015 projections and both VORP (value over replacement player) and VOAP (value over average player), I have ranked the top 543 players. Here are my first 8 rounds in a 12-team league…

PickStandardADPDiffPPRADPDiffPPR (half point)ADPDiff
1Le’Veon Bell2.8-1.8Le’Veon Bell10Le’Veon Bell10
2Adrian Peterson1.70.3Antonio Brown3.8-1.8Antonio Brown3.8-1.8
3Eddie Lacy30Rob Gronkowski10-7Rob Gronkowski10-7
4Marshawn Lynch4.8-0.8Demaryius Thomas10.5-6.5Demaryius Thomas10.5-6.5
5Rob Gronkowski12.7-7.7Adrian Peterson32Adrian Peterson32
6Demaryius Thomas11.7-5.7Odell Beckham9.5-3.5Odell Beckham9.5-3.5
7Antonio Brown6.50.5Julio Jones8.5-1.5Dez Bryant8-1
8Jamaal Charles2.75.3Matt Forte12.8-4.8Julio Jones8.5-0.5
9Dez Bryant10-1Dez Bryant81Jamaal Charles3.55.5
10Matt Forte100Jamaal Charles3.56.5Eddie Lacy4.35.7
11Odell Beckham13.7-2.7Eddie Lacy4.36.7Marshawn Lynch8.82.2
12Julio Jones15.8-3.8Marshawn Lynch8.83.2Matt Forte12.8-0.8
13Andrew Luck11.71.3C.J. Anderson121C.J. Anderson121
14C.J. Anderson12.51.5Calvin Johnson14.5-0.5Calvin Johnson14.5-0.5
15Calvin Johnson16.2-1.2Andrew Luck15.3-0.3Andrew Luck15.3-0.3
16Aaron Rodgers11.24.8Justin Forsett22.8-6.8Aaron Rodgers20.8-4.8
17Jeremy Hill14.52.5Aaron Rodgers20.8-3.8DeMarco Murray170
18DeMarco Murray12.75.3Randall Cobb20.5-2.5Jeremy Hill16.81.2
19Randall Cobb21.8-2.8DeMarco Murray172Randall Cobb20.5-1.5
20LeSean McCoy16.73.3A.J. Green182LeSean McCoy200
21A.J. Green20.80.2LeSean McCoy201A.J. Green183
22Mike Evans28.2-6.2Jeremy Hill16.85.2Justin Forsett22.8-0.8
23Mark Ingram30.5-7.5Alshon Jeffery23.3-0.3Alshon Jeffery23.3-0.3
24Alshon Jeffery24.8-0.8T.Y. Hilton24.8-0.8Mike Evans25-1
25T.Y. Hilton24.70.3Greg Olsen58.3-33.3T.Y. Hilton24.80.2
26Justin Forsett260Mike Evans251Mark Ingram33.8-7.8
27Russell Wilson33-6Jimmy Graham30.3-3.3Jimmy Graham30.3-3.3
28Alfred Morris32.8-4.8DeAndre Hopkins31-3Russell Wilson56.8-28.8
29Jimmy Graham27.51.5Mark Ingram33.8-4.8Greg Olsen58.3-29.3
30DeAndre Hopkins36.5-6.5Emmanuel Sanders31.5-1.5DeAndre Hopkins31-1
31Emmanuel Sanders32-1Russell Wilson56.8-25.8Emmanuel Sanders31.5-0.5
32Lamar Miller31.30.7Brandin Cooks29.82.2Frank Gore30.31.7
33Frank Gore32.30.7Frank Gore30.32.7Lamar Miller294
34Peyton Manning29.54.5Lamar Miller295Alfred Morris37.3-3.3
35Greg Olsen50.3-15.3Martellus Bennett68.5-33.5Brandin Cooks29.85.2
36Melvin Gordon34.31.7Travis Kelce51-15Peyton Manning52.3-16.3
37Joseph Randle55.5-18.5C.J. Spiller52.3-15.3Melvin Gordon325
38Carlos Hyde40-2Peyton Manning52.3-14.3Travis Kelce51-13
39Brandin Cooks35.33.7Alfred Morris37.31.7Jordan Matthews34.54.5
40Jordan Matthews39.20.8Melvin Gordon328Martellus Bennett68.5-28.5
41Ben Roethlisberger46.5-5.5Jordan Matthews34.56.5Joseph Randle44.5-3.5
42Travis Kelce52.3-10.3Ben Roethlisberger59.5-17.5Carlos Hyde42.3-0.3
43Drew Brees394Andre Ellington41.51.5Ben Roethlisberger59.5-16.5
44Martellus Bennett65.7-21.7Keenan Allen48.3-4.3Drew Brees59.3-15.3
45Latavius Murray41.53.5Joseph Randle44.50.5T.J. Yeldon51.3-6.3
46T.J. Yeldon66.2-20.2Drew Brees59.3-13.3Latavius Murray38.37.7
47Matt Ryan56.3-9.3Carlos Hyde42.34.7Keenan Allen48.3-1.3
48Todd Gurley55.7-7.7T.J. Yeldon51.3-3.3Golden Tate48.3-0.3
49DeSean Jackson53.2-4.2Latavius Murray38.310.7Matt Ryan75.5-26.5
50Brandon Marshall62.8-12.8Golden Tate48.31.7Todd Gurley464
51Golden Tate54.8-3.8Julian Edelman45.35.7Andre Ellington41.59.5
52Jonathan Stewart511Todd Gurley466Brandon Marshall58-6
53Keenan Allen56.5-3.5Matt Ryan75.5-22.5Zach Ertz105-52
54LeGarrette Blount73.3-19.3Jason Witten103-49Jason Witten103-49
55Zach Ertz112.7-57.7Brandon Marshall58-3C.J. Spiller52.32.7
56Cam Newton81.2-25.2Zach Ertz105-49Jonathan Stewart48.37.7
57Tony Romo60-3Ameer Abdullah4710Julian Edelman45.311.7
58Jason Witten81.5-23.5Cam Newton96.8-38.8Cam Newton96.8-38.8
59Sammy Watkins53.25.8Tony Romo86.8-27.8DeSean Jackson62.3-3.3
60Andre Ellington48.311.7Jonathan Stewart48.311.7Tony Romo86.8-26.8
61Dwayne Allen119-58Giovani Bernard59.31.7Ameer Abdullah4714
62Isaiah Crowell94.5-32.5Andre Johnson45.516.5Sammy Watkins52.59.5
63Torrey Smith102-39DeSean Jackson62.30.7Andre Johnson45.517.5
64Amari Cooper50.213.8Delanie Walker116.5-52.5LeGarrette Blount77.3-13.3
65Chris Ivory80.5-15.5Amari Cooper4619Delanie Walker116.5-51.5
66Julius Thomas76.3-10.3Sammy Watkins52.513.5Amari Cooper4620
67Delanie Walker129-62Ryan Tannehill91.8-24.8Julius Thomas86.8-19.8
68Julian Edelman47.320.7Julius Thomas86.8-18.8Ryan Tannehill91.8-23.8
69Andre Johnson44.224.8Roddy White79.8-10.8Giovani Bernard59.39.7
70Vincent Jackson74.8-4.8Eli Manning94.5-24.5Dwayne Allen145.8-75.8
71Jordan Cameron93.8-22.8Philip Rivers111.5-40.5Vincent Jackson73-2
72Brandon LaFell107.3-35.3LeGarrette Blount77.3-5.3Chris Ivory76.5-4.5
73Ryan Tannehill96-23Allen Robinson63.89.2Isaiah Crowell84.5-11.5
74Mike Wallace83.5-9.5Brandon LaFell93-19Brandon LaFell93-19
75Martavis Bryant66.88.2Jordan Cameron92.8-17.8Jordan Cameron92.8-17.8
76Nelson Agholor91.7-15.7Vincent Jackson733Eli Manning94.5-18.5
77Ameer Abdullah75.21.8Rashad Jennings71.85.2Roddy White79.8-2.8
78Eli Manning88.2-10.2Chris Ivory76.51.5Philip Rivers111.5-33.5
79Jeremy Maclin65.813.2Jeremy Maclin58.320.7Allen Robinson63.815.2
80Roddy White86.8-6.8Anquan Boldin102-22Torrey Smith105-25
81Philip Rivers99.3-18.3Dwayne Allen145.8-64.8Jeremy Maclin58.322.7
82Allen Robinson91.3-9.3Isaiah Crowell84.5-2.5Rashad Jennings71.810.2
83Anquan Boldin120.2-37.2Matthew Stafford89.3-6.3Anquan Boldin102-19
84Rashad Jennings69.214.8Joique Bell70.513.5Nelson Agholor72.311.7
85Marques Colston122.3-37.3Heath Miller198-113Mike Wallace79.55.5
86Antonio Gates130.8-44.8Jarvis Landry53.332.7Matthew Stafford89.3-3.3
87C.J. Spiller79.27.8Nelson Agholor72.314.7Heath Miller198-111
88Eric Decker116.3-28.3Torrey Smith105-17Joique Bell70.517.5
89Matthew Stafford78.310.7Mike Wallace79.59.5Eric Decker95.8-6.8
90Coby Fleener136-46Eric Decker95.8-5.8Jarvis Landry53.336.7
91Giovani Bernard76.314.7Colin Kaepernick140-49Martavis Bryant57.533.5
92Heath Miller160-68Shane Vereen7616Antonio Gates147-55
93Charles Johnson104.5-11.5Charles Clay190-97Charles Clay190-97
94Charles Clay179-85Larry Fitzgerald922Marques Colston110.5-16.5
95Joique Bell70.824.2Antonio Gates147-52Colin Kaepernick140-45
96Tyler Eifert163-67Devonta Freeman92.33.7Larry Fitzgerald924

The “ADP” column is the the player’s current average draft position based on thousands of completed drafts. The “Diff” column represents the difference between the player’s ADP and my ranking for that player. A negative value means that I have that player ranked higher than his ADP. This data is useful in determining if it is time to select a player. For example, in standard leagues I have Martellus Bennett ranked at 44, but his ADP is 66. Based on my rankings he is a 4th round pick. However since he is going in the 6th round, I’d wait until the 5th round for Bennett and make a nice value pick. And if I can get him in the 6th, even better!

Le’Veon Bell is the to unanimous top pick in all formats. However, in standard format I’d have no issue with Adrian Peterson as the first pick. You know he’s hungry, and he’s got something to prove. Bell is suspended, and while it’s only for two games, it might be more productive to have Peterson for a full season than Bell for two games less. I can even make a solid argument for Eddie Lacy. Will Rodgers rely on him a bit more now with Jordy Nelson out of the picture?

Gronkowski in the top 5? Yes sir. He is that far ahead of the rest of the tight end field that his value at his position propels him an early-mid first round pick in my eyes. This is the same principle I argued on the baseball side of things for taking Buster Posey in the second (or third) round. And you know what, he currently has about 100 points more than the next catcher. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Here are some players that I think are being drafted too early:

Standard Format:
Julian Edelman, ADP: 47, Rank: 68
Andre Johnson, ADP: 44, Rank: 69
Joique Bell, ADP: 71, Rank: 95

PPR Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 79
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 86

PPR Half-Point Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 81
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 90
Martavis Bryant, ADP: 57, Rank: 91
Andre Johnson, ADP: 45, Rank: 63

And now some players that have great draft value:

Standard Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 50, Rank: 35
Joseph Randle, ADP: 55, Rank: 37
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 66, Rank: 44
T.J. Yeldon, ADP: 66, Rank: 46
Zach Ertz, ADP: 112, Rank: 55
Cam Newton, ADP: 81, Rank: 56
Isaiah Crowell, ADP: 95, Rank: 62
Brandon LaFell, ADP: 107, Rank: 72
Anquan Boldin, ADP: 120, Rank: 83

PPR Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 25
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 31
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 35
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 64
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 67
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 71
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 81
Charles Clay, ADP: 190, Rank: 93

PPR Half-Point Format:
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 28
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 29
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 40
Matt Ryan, ADP: 76, Rank: 49
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Tony Romo, ADP: 87, Rank: 60
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 66
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 68
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 70
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 78

Please note that I am using 1-point PPR ADP for the half-point PPR formats as well. These numbers are likely very slightly skewed, but I do not expect them to be that far off.

Here are all 543 picks (Excel Spreadsheet).

Good luck, and don’t snooze on Greg Olsen!