First allow me to send my condolences to any of you that have already had your draft and in said draft you drafted Jordy Nelson. This is one of the main reasons I won’t allow my leagues to draft more than five days before the start of the season. Ranking players within the same position is relatively easy, but comparing players across positions is a much more difficult task. However, it is an essential exercise in order to figure out who to draft, and when. Using my 2015 projections and both VORP (value over replacement player) and VOAP (value over average player), I have ranked the top 543 players. Here are my first 8 rounds in a 12-team league…
The “ADP” column is the the player’s current average draft position based on thousands of completed drafts. The “Diff” column represents the difference between the player’s ADP and my ranking for that player. A negative value means that I have that player ranked higher than his ADP. This data is useful in determining if it is time to select a player. For example, in standard leagues I have Martellus Bennett ranked at 44, but his ADP is 66. Based on my rankings he is a 4th round pick. However since he is going in the 6th round, I’d wait until the 5th round for Bennett and make a nice value pick. And if I can get him in the 6th, even better!
Le’Veon Bell is the to unanimous top pick in all formats. However, in standard format I’d have no issue with Adrian Peterson as the first pick. You know he’s hungry, and he’s got something to prove. Bell is suspended, and while it’s only for two games, it might be more productive to have Peterson for a full season than Bell for two games less. I can even make a solid argument for Eddie Lacy. Will Rodgers rely on him a bit more now with Jordy Nelson out of the picture?
Gronkowski in the top 5? Yes sir. He is that far ahead of the rest of the tight end field that his value at his position propels him an early-mid first round pick in my eyes. This is the same principle I argued on the baseball side of things for taking Buster Posey in the second (or third) round. And you know what, he currently has about 100 points more than the next catcher. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Here are some players that I think are being drafted too early:
Standard Format:
Julian Edelman, ADP: 47, Rank: 68
Andre Johnson, ADP: 44, Rank: 69
Joique Bell, ADP: 71, Rank: 95
PPR Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 79
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 86
PPR Half-Point Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 81
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 90
Martavis Bryant, ADP: 57, Rank: 91
Andre Johnson, ADP: 45, Rank: 63
And now some players that have great draft value:
Standard Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 50, Rank: 35
Joseph Randle, ADP: 55, Rank: 37
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 66, Rank: 44
T.J. Yeldon, ADP: 66, Rank: 46
Zach Ertz, ADP: 112, Rank: 55
Cam Newton, ADP: 81, Rank: 56
Isaiah Crowell, ADP: 95, Rank: 62
Brandon LaFell, ADP: 107, Rank: 72
Anquan Boldin, ADP: 120, Rank: 83
PPR Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 25
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 31
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 35
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 64
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 67
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 71
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 81
Charles Clay, ADP: 190, Rank: 93
PPR Half-Point Format:
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 28
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 29
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 40
Matt Ryan, ADP: 76, Rank: 49
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Tony Romo, ADP: 87, Rank: 60
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 66
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 68
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 70
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 78
Please note that I am using 1-point PPR ADP for the half-point PPR formats as well. These numbers are likely very slightly skewed, but I do not expect them to be that far off.
Here are all 543 picks (Excel Spreadsheet).
Good luck, and don’t snooze on Greg Olsen!