First allow me to send my condolences to any of you that have already had your draft and in said draft you drafted Jordy Nelson. This is one of the main reasons I won’t allow my leagues to draft more than five days before the start of the season. Ranking players within the same position is relatively easy, but comparing players across positions is a much more difficult task. However, it is an essential exercise in order to figure out who to draft, and when. Using my 2015 projections and both VORP (value over replacement player) and VOAP (value over average player), I have ranked the top 543 players. Here are my first 8 rounds in a 12-team league…
Pick | Standard | ADP | Diff | PPR | ADP | Diff | PPR (half point) | ADP | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Le’Veon Bell | 2.8 | -1.8 | Le’Veon Bell | 1 | 0 | Le’Veon Bell | 1 | 0 |
2 | Adrian Peterson | 1.7 | 0.3 | Antonio Brown | 3.8 | -1.8 | Antonio Brown | 3.8 | -1.8 |
3 | Eddie Lacy | 3 | 0 | Rob Gronkowski | 10 | -7 | Rob Gronkowski | 10 | -7 |
4 | Marshawn Lynch | 4.8 | -0.8 | Demaryius Thomas | 10.5 | -6.5 | Demaryius Thomas | 10.5 | -6.5 |
5 | Rob Gronkowski | 12.7 | -7.7 | Adrian Peterson | 3 | 2 | Adrian Peterson | 3 | 2 |
6 | Demaryius Thomas | 11.7 | -5.7 | Odell Beckham | 9.5 | -3.5 | Odell Beckham | 9.5 | -3.5 |
7 | Antonio Brown | 6.5 | 0.5 | Julio Jones | 8.5 | -1.5 | Dez Bryant | 8 | -1 |
8 | Jamaal Charles | 2.7 | 5.3 | Matt Forte | 12.8 | -4.8 | Julio Jones | 8.5 | -0.5 |
9 | Dez Bryant | 10 | -1 | Dez Bryant | 8 | 1 | Jamaal Charles | 3.5 | 5.5 |
10 | Matt Forte | 10 | 0 | Jamaal Charles | 3.5 | 6.5 | Eddie Lacy | 4.3 | 5.7 |
11 | Odell Beckham | 13.7 | -2.7 | Eddie Lacy | 4.3 | 6.7 | Marshawn Lynch | 8.8 | 2.2 |
12 | Julio Jones | 15.8 | -3.8 | Marshawn Lynch | 8.8 | 3.2 | Matt Forte | 12.8 | -0.8 |
13 | Andrew Luck | 11.7 | 1.3 | C.J. Anderson | 12 | 1 | C.J. Anderson | 12 | 1 |
14 | C.J. Anderson | 12.5 | 1.5 | Calvin Johnson | 14.5 | -0.5 | Calvin Johnson | 14.5 | -0.5 |
15 | Calvin Johnson | 16.2 | -1.2 | Andrew Luck | 15.3 | -0.3 | Andrew Luck | 15.3 | -0.3 |
16 | Aaron Rodgers | 11.2 | 4.8 | Justin Forsett | 22.8 | -6.8 | Aaron Rodgers | 20.8 | -4.8 |
17 | Jeremy Hill | 14.5 | 2.5 | Aaron Rodgers | 20.8 | -3.8 | DeMarco Murray | 17 | 0 |
18 | DeMarco Murray | 12.7 | 5.3 | Randall Cobb | 20.5 | -2.5 | Jeremy Hill | 16.8 | 1.2 |
19 | Randall Cobb | 21.8 | -2.8 | DeMarco Murray | 17 | 2 | Randall Cobb | 20.5 | -1.5 |
20 | LeSean McCoy | 16.7 | 3.3 | A.J. Green | 18 | 2 | LeSean McCoy | 20 | 0 |
21 | A.J. Green | 20.8 | 0.2 | LeSean McCoy | 20 | 1 | A.J. Green | 18 | 3 |
22 | Mike Evans | 28.2 | -6.2 | Jeremy Hill | 16.8 | 5.2 | Justin Forsett | 22.8 | -0.8 |
23 | Mark Ingram | 30.5 | -7.5 | Alshon Jeffery | 23.3 | -0.3 | Alshon Jeffery | 23.3 | -0.3 |
24 | Alshon Jeffery | 24.8 | -0.8 | T.Y. Hilton | 24.8 | -0.8 | Mike Evans | 25 | -1 |
25 | T.Y. Hilton | 24.7 | 0.3 | Greg Olsen | 58.3 | -33.3 | T.Y. Hilton | 24.8 | 0.2 |
26 | Justin Forsett | 26 | 0 | Mike Evans | 25 | 1 | Mark Ingram | 33.8 | -7.8 |
27 | Russell Wilson | 33 | -6 | Jimmy Graham | 30.3 | -3.3 | Jimmy Graham | 30.3 | -3.3 |
28 | Alfred Morris | 32.8 | -4.8 | DeAndre Hopkins | 31 | -3 | Russell Wilson | 56.8 | -28.8 |
29 | Jimmy Graham | 27.5 | 1.5 | Mark Ingram | 33.8 | -4.8 | Greg Olsen | 58.3 | -29.3 |
30 | DeAndre Hopkins | 36.5 | -6.5 | Emmanuel Sanders | 31.5 | -1.5 | DeAndre Hopkins | 31 | -1 |
31 | Emmanuel Sanders | 32 | -1 | Russell Wilson | 56.8 | -25.8 | Emmanuel Sanders | 31.5 | -0.5 |
32 | Lamar Miller | 31.3 | 0.7 | Brandin Cooks | 29.8 | 2.2 | Frank Gore | 30.3 | 1.7 |
33 | Frank Gore | 32.3 | 0.7 | Frank Gore | 30.3 | 2.7 | Lamar Miller | 29 | 4 |
34 | Peyton Manning | 29.5 | 4.5 | Lamar Miller | 29 | 5 | Alfred Morris | 37.3 | -3.3 |
35 | Greg Olsen | 50.3 | -15.3 | Martellus Bennett | 68.5 | -33.5 | Brandin Cooks | 29.8 | 5.2 |
36 | Melvin Gordon | 34.3 | 1.7 | Travis Kelce | 51 | -15 | Peyton Manning | 52.3 | -16.3 |
37 | Joseph Randle | 55.5 | -18.5 | C.J. Spiller | 52.3 | -15.3 | Melvin Gordon | 32 | 5 |
38 | Carlos Hyde | 40 | -2 | Peyton Manning | 52.3 | -14.3 | Travis Kelce | 51 | -13 |
39 | Brandin Cooks | 35.3 | 3.7 | Alfred Morris | 37.3 | 1.7 | Jordan Matthews | 34.5 | 4.5 |
40 | Jordan Matthews | 39.2 | 0.8 | Melvin Gordon | 32 | 8 | Martellus Bennett | 68.5 | -28.5 |
41 | Ben Roethlisberger | 46.5 | -5.5 | Jordan Matthews | 34.5 | 6.5 | Joseph Randle | 44.5 | -3.5 |
42 | Travis Kelce | 52.3 | -10.3 | Ben Roethlisberger | 59.5 | -17.5 | Carlos Hyde | 42.3 | -0.3 |
43 | Drew Brees | 39 | 4 | Andre Ellington | 41.5 | 1.5 | Ben Roethlisberger | 59.5 | -16.5 |
44 | Martellus Bennett | 65.7 | -21.7 | Keenan Allen | 48.3 | -4.3 | Drew Brees | 59.3 | -15.3 |
45 | Latavius Murray | 41.5 | 3.5 | Joseph Randle | 44.5 | 0.5 | T.J. Yeldon | 51.3 | -6.3 |
46 | T.J. Yeldon | 66.2 | -20.2 | Drew Brees | 59.3 | -13.3 | Latavius Murray | 38.3 | 7.7 |
47 | Matt Ryan | 56.3 | -9.3 | Carlos Hyde | 42.3 | 4.7 | Keenan Allen | 48.3 | -1.3 |
48 | Todd Gurley | 55.7 | -7.7 | T.J. Yeldon | 51.3 | -3.3 | Golden Tate | 48.3 | -0.3 |
49 | DeSean Jackson | 53.2 | -4.2 | Latavius Murray | 38.3 | 10.7 | Matt Ryan | 75.5 | -26.5 |
50 | Brandon Marshall | 62.8 | -12.8 | Golden Tate | 48.3 | 1.7 | Todd Gurley | 46 | 4 |
51 | Golden Tate | 54.8 | -3.8 | Julian Edelman | 45.3 | 5.7 | Andre Ellington | 41.5 | 9.5 |
52 | Jonathan Stewart | 51 | 1 | Todd Gurley | 46 | 6 | Brandon Marshall | 58 | -6 |
53 | Keenan Allen | 56.5 | -3.5 | Matt Ryan | 75.5 | -22.5 | Zach Ertz | 105 | -52 |
54 | LeGarrette Blount | 73.3 | -19.3 | Jason Witten | 103 | -49 | Jason Witten | 103 | -49 |
55 | Zach Ertz | 112.7 | -57.7 | Brandon Marshall | 58 | -3 | C.J. Spiller | 52.3 | 2.7 |
56 | Cam Newton | 81.2 | -25.2 | Zach Ertz | 105 | -49 | Jonathan Stewart | 48.3 | 7.7 |
57 | Tony Romo | 60 | -3 | Ameer Abdullah | 47 | 10 | Julian Edelman | 45.3 | 11.7 |
58 | Jason Witten | 81.5 | -23.5 | Cam Newton | 96.8 | -38.8 | Cam Newton | 96.8 | -38.8 |
59 | Sammy Watkins | 53.2 | 5.8 | Tony Romo | 86.8 | -27.8 | DeSean Jackson | 62.3 | -3.3 |
60 | Andre Ellington | 48.3 | 11.7 | Jonathan Stewart | 48.3 | 11.7 | Tony Romo | 86.8 | -26.8 |
61 | Dwayne Allen | 119 | -58 | Giovani Bernard | 59.3 | 1.7 | Ameer Abdullah | 47 | 14 |
62 | Isaiah Crowell | 94.5 | -32.5 | Andre Johnson | 45.5 | 16.5 | Sammy Watkins | 52.5 | 9.5 |
63 | Torrey Smith | 102 | -39 | DeSean Jackson | 62.3 | 0.7 | Andre Johnson | 45.5 | 17.5 |
64 | Amari Cooper | 50.2 | 13.8 | Delanie Walker | 116.5 | -52.5 | LeGarrette Blount | 77.3 | -13.3 |
65 | Chris Ivory | 80.5 | -15.5 | Amari Cooper | 46 | 19 | Delanie Walker | 116.5 | -51.5 |
66 | Julius Thomas | 76.3 | -10.3 | Sammy Watkins | 52.5 | 13.5 | Amari Cooper | 46 | 20 |
67 | Delanie Walker | 129 | -62 | Ryan Tannehill | 91.8 | -24.8 | Julius Thomas | 86.8 | -19.8 |
68 | Julian Edelman | 47.3 | 20.7 | Julius Thomas | 86.8 | -18.8 | Ryan Tannehill | 91.8 | -23.8 |
69 | Andre Johnson | 44.2 | 24.8 | Roddy White | 79.8 | -10.8 | Giovani Bernard | 59.3 | 9.7 |
70 | Vincent Jackson | 74.8 | -4.8 | Eli Manning | 94.5 | -24.5 | Dwayne Allen | 145.8 | -75.8 |
71 | Jordan Cameron | 93.8 | -22.8 | Philip Rivers | 111.5 | -40.5 | Vincent Jackson | 73 | -2 |
72 | Brandon LaFell | 107.3 | -35.3 | LeGarrette Blount | 77.3 | -5.3 | Chris Ivory | 76.5 | -4.5 |
73 | Ryan Tannehill | 96 | -23 | Allen Robinson | 63.8 | 9.2 | Isaiah Crowell | 84.5 | -11.5 |
74 | Mike Wallace | 83.5 | -9.5 | Brandon LaFell | 93 | -19 | Brandon LaFell | 93 | -19 |
75 | Martavis Bryant | 66.8 | 8.2 | Jordan Cameron | 92.8 | -17.8 | Jordan Cameron | 92.8 | -17.8 |
76 | Nelson Agholor | 91.7 | -15.7 | Vincent Jackson | 73 | 3 | Eli Manning | 94.5 | -18.5 |
77 | Ameer Abdullah | 75.2 | 1.8 | Rashad Jennings | 71.8 | 5.2 | Roddy White | 79.8 | -2.8 |
78 | Eli Manning | 88.2 | -10.2 | Chris Ivory | 76.5 | 1.5 | Philip Rivers | 111.5 | -33.5 |
79 | Jeremy Maclin | 65.8 | 13.2 | Jeremy Maclin | 58.3 | 20.7 | Allen Robinson | 63.8 | 15.2 |
80 | Roddy White | 86.8 | -6.8 | Anquan Boldin | 102 | -22 | Torrey Smith | 105 | -25 |
81 | Philip Rivers | 99.3 | -18.3 | Dwayne Allen | 145.8 | -64.8 | Jeremy Maclin | 58.3 | 22.7 |
82 | Allen Robinson | 91.3 | -9.3 | Isaiah Crowell | 84.5 | -2.5 | Rashad Jennings | 71.8 | 10.2 |
83 | Anquan Boldin | 120.2 | -37.2 | Matthew Stafford | 89.3 | -6.3 | Anquan Boldin | 102 | -19 |
84 | Rashad Jennings | 69.2 | 14.8 | Joique Bell | 70.5 | 13.5 | Nelson Agholor | 72.3 | 11.7 |
85 | Marques Colston | 122.3 | -37.3 | Heath Miller | 198 | -113 | Mike Wallace | 79.5 | 5.5 |
86 | Antonio Gates | 130.8 | -44.8 | Jarvis Landry | 53.3 | 32.7 | Matthew Stafford | 89.3 | -3.3 |
87 | C.J. Spiller | 79.2 | 7.8 | Nelson Agholor | 72.3 | 14.7 | Heath Miller | 198 | -111 |
88 | Eric Decker | 116.3 | -28.3 | Torrey Smith | 105 | -17 | Joique Bell | 70.5 | 17.5 |
89 | Matthew Stafford | 78.3 | 10.7 | Mike Wallace | 79.5 | 9.5 | Eric Decker | 95.8 | -6.8 |
90 | Coby Fleener | 136 | -46 | Eric Decker | 95.8 | -5.8 | Jarvis Landry | 53.3 | 36.7 |
91 | Giovani Bernard | 76.3 | 14.7 | Colin Kaepernick | 140 | -49 | Martavis Bryant | 57.5 | 33.5 |
92 | Heath Miller | 160 | -68 | Shane Vereen | 76 | 16 | Antonio Gates | 147 | -55 |
93 | Charles Johnson | 104.5 | -11.5 | Charles Clay | 190 | -97 | Charles Clay | 190 | -97 |
94 | Charles Clay | 179 | -85 | Larry Fitzgerald | 92 | 2 | Marques Colston | 110.5 | -16.5 |
95 | Joique Bell | 70.8 | 24.2 | Antonio Gates | 147 | -52 | Colin Kaepernick | 140 | -45 |
96 | Tyler Eifert | 163 | -67 | Devonta Freeman | 92.3 | 3.7 | Larry Fitzgerald | 92 | 4 |
The “ADP” column is the the player’s current average draft position based on thousands of completed drafts. The “Diff” column represents the difference between the player’s ADP and my ranking for that player. A negative value means that I have that player ranked higher than his ADP. This data is useful in determining if it is time to select a player. For example, in standard leagues I have Martellus Bennett ranked at 44, but his ADP is 66. Based on my rankings he is a 4th round pick. However since he is going in the 6th round, I’d wait until the 5th round for Bennett and make a nice value pick. And if I can get him in the 6th, even better!
Le’Veon Bell is the to unanimous top pick in all formats. However, in standard format I’d have no issue with Adrian Peterson as the first pick. You know he’s hungry, and he’s got something to prove. Bell is suspended, and while it’s only for two games, it might be more productive to have Peterson for a full season than Bell for two games less. I can even make a solid argument for Eddie Lacy. Will Rodgers rely on him a bit more now with Jordy Nelson out of the picture?
Gronkowski in the top 5? Yes sir. He is that far ahead of the rest of the tight end field that his value at his position propels him an early-mid first round pick in my eyes. This is the same principle I argued on the baseball side of things for taking Buster Posey in the second (or third) round. And you know what, he currently has about 100 points more than the next catcher. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Here are some players that I think are being drafted too early:
Standard Format:
Julian Edelman, ADP: 47, Rank: 68
Andre Johnson, ADP: 44, Rank: 69
Joique Bell, ADP: 71, Rank: 95
PPR Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 79
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 86
PPR Half-Point Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 81
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 90
Martavis Bryant, ADP: 57, Rank: 91
Andre Johnson, ADP: 45, Rank: 63
And now some players that have great draft value:
Standard Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 50, Rank: 35
Joseph Randle, ADP: 55, Rank: 37
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 66, Rank: 44
T.J. Yeldon, ADP: 66, Rank: 46
Zach Ertz, ADP: 112, Rank: 55
Cam Newton, ADP: 81, Rank: 56
Isaiah Crowell, ADP: 95, Rank: 62
Brandon LaFell, ADP: 107, Rank: 72
Anquan Boldin, ADP: 120, Rank: 83
PPR Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 25
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 31
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 35
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 64
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 67
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 71
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 81
Charles Clay, ADP: 190, Rank: 93
PPR Half-Point Format:
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 28
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 29
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 40
Matt Ryan, ADP: 76, Rank: 49
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Tony Romo, ADP: 87, Rank: 60
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 66
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 68
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 70
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 78
Please note that I am using 1-point PPR ADP for the half-point PPR formats as well. These numbers are likely very slightly skewed, but I do not expect them to be that far off.
Here are all 543 picks (Excel Spreadsheet).
Good luck, and don’t snooze on Greg Olsen!