LOGIN

First allow me to send my condolences to any of you that have already had your draft and in said draft you drafted Jordy Nelson. This is one of the main reasons I won’t allow my leagues to draft more than five days before the start of the season. Ranking players within the same position is relatively easy, but comparing players across positions is a much more difficult task. However, it is an essential exercise in order to figure out who to draft, and when. Using my 2015 projections and both VORP (value over replacement player) and VOAP (value over average player), I have ranked the top 543 players. Here are my first 8 rounds in a 12-team league…

Pick Standard ADP Diff PPR ADP Diff PPR (half point) ADP Diff
1 Le’Veon Bell 2.8 -1.8 Le’Veon Bell 1 0 Le’Veon Bell 1 0
2 Adrian Peterson 1.7 0.3 Antonio Brown 3.8 -1.8 Antonio Brown 3.8 -1.8
3 Eddie Lacy 3 0 Rob Gronkowski 10 -7 Rob Gronkowski 10 -7
4 Marshawn Lynch 4.8 -0.8 Demaryius Thomas 10.5 -6.5 Demaryius Thomas 10.5 -6.5
5 Rob Gronkowski 12.7 -7.7 Adrian Peterson 3 2 Adrian Peterson 3 2
6 Demaryius Thomas 11.7 -5.7 Odell Beckham 9.5 -3.5 Odell Beckham 9.5 -3.5
7 Antonio Brown 6.5 0.5 Julio Jones 8.5 -1.5 Dez Bryant 8 -1
8 Jamaal Charles 2.7 5.3 Matt Forte 12.8 -4.8 Julio Jones 8.5 -0.5
9 Dez Bryant 10 -1 Dez Bryant 8 1 Jamaal Charles 3.5 5.5
10 Matt Forte 10 0 Jamaal Charles 3.5 6.5 Eddie Lacy 4.3 5.7
11 Odell Beckham 13.7 -2.7 Eddie Lacy 4.3 6.7 Marshawn Lynch 8.8 2.2
12 Julio Jones 15.8 -3.8 Marshawn Lynch 8.8 3.2 Matt Forte 12.8 -0.8
13 Andrew Luck 11.7 1.3 C.J. Anderson 12 1 C.J. Anderson 12 1
14 C.J. Anderson 12.5 1.5 Calvin Johnson 14.5 -0.5 Calvin Johnson 14.5 -0.5
15 Calvin Johnson 16.2 -1.2 Andrew Luck 15.3 -0.3 Andrew Luck 15.3 -0.3
16 Aaron Rodgers 11.2 4.8 Justin Forsett 22.8 -6.8 Aaron Rodgers 20.8 -4.8
17 Jeremy Hill 14.5 2.5 Aaron Rodgers 20.8 -3.8 DeMarco Murray 17 0
18 DeMarco Murray 12.7 5.3 Randall Cobb 20.5 -2.5 Jeremy Hill 16.8 1.2
19 Randall Cobb 21.8 -2.8 DeMarco Murray 17 2 Randall Cobb 20.5 -1.5
20 LeSean McCoy 16.7 3.3 A.J. Green 18 2 LeSean McCoy 20 0
21 A.J. Green 20.8 0.2 LeSean McCoy 20 1 A.J. Green 18 3
22 Mike Evans 28.2 -6.2 Jeremy Hill 16.8 5.2 Justin Forsett 22.8 -0.8
23 Mark Ingram 30.5 -7.5 Alshon Jeffery 23.3 -0.3 Alshon Jeffery 23.3 -0.3
24 Alshon Jeffery 24.8 -0.8 T.Y. Hilton 24.8 -0.8 Mike Evans 25 -1
25 T.Y. Hilton 24.7 0.3 Greg Olsen 58.3 -33.3 T.Y. Hilton 24.8 0.2
26 Justin Forsett 26 0 Mike Evans 25 1 Mark Ingram 33.8 -7.8
27 Russell Wilson 33 -6 Jimmy Graham 30.3 -3.3 Jimmy Graham 30.3 -3.3
28 Alfred Morris 32.8 -4.8 DeAndre Hopkins 31 -3 Russell Wilson 56.8 -28.8
29 Jimmy Graham 27.5 1.5 Mark Ingram 33.8 -4.8 Greg Olsen 58.3 -29.3
30 DeAndre Hopkins 36.5 -6.5 Emmanuel Sanders 31.5 -1.5 DeAndre Hopkins 31 -1
31 Emmanuel Sanders 32 -1 Russell Wilson 56.8 -25.8 Emmanuel Sanders 31.5 -0.5
32 Lamar Miller 31.3 0.7 Brandin Cooks 29.8 2.2 Frank Gore 30.3 1.7
33 Frank Gore 32.3 0.7 Frank Gore 30.3 2.7 Lamar Miller 29 4
34 Peyton Manning 29.5 4.5 Lamar Miller 29 5 Alfred Morris 37.3 -3.3
35 Greg Olsen 50.3 -15.3 Martellus Bennett 68.5 -33.5 Brandin Cooks 29.8 5.2
36 Melvin Gordon 34.3 1.7 Travis Kelce 51 -15 Peyton Manning 52.3 -16.3
37 Joseph Randle 55.5 -18.5 C.J. Spiller 52.3 -15.3 Melvin Gordon 32 5
38 Carlos Hyde 40 -2 Peyton Manning 52.3 -14.3 Travis Kelce 51 -13
39 Brandin Cooks 35.3 3.7 Alfred Morris 37.3 1.7 Jordan Matthews 34.5 4.5
40 Jordan Matthews 39.2 0.8 Melvin Gordon 32 8 Martellus Bennett 68.5 -28.5
41 Ben Roethlisberger 46.5 -5.5 Jordan Matthews 34.5 6.5 Joseph Randle 44.5 -3.5
42 Travis Kelce 52.3 -10.3 Ben Roethlisberger 59.5 -17.5 Carlos Hyde 42.3 -0.3
43 Drew Brees 39 4 Andre Ellington 41.5 1.5 Ben Roethlisberger 59.5 -16.5
44 Martellus Bennett 65.7 -21.7 Keenan Allen 48.3 -4.3 Drew Brees 59.3 -15.3
45 Latavius Murray 41.5 3.5 Joseph Randle 44.5 0.5 T.J. Yeldon 51.3 -6.3
46 T.J. Yeldon 66.2 -20.2 Drew Brees 59.3 -13.3 Latavius Murray 38.3 7.7
47 Matt Ryan 56.3 -9.3 Carlos Hyde 42.3 4.7 Keenan Allen 48.3 -1.3
48 Todd Gurley 55.7 -7.7 T.J. Yeldon 51.3 -3.3 Golden Tate 48.3 -0.3
49 DeSean Jackson 53.2 -4.2 Latavius Murray 38.3 10.7 Matt Ryan 75.5 -26.5
50 Brandon Marshall 62.8 -12.8 Golden Tate 48.3 1.7 Todd Gurley 46 4
51 Golden Tate 54.8 -3.8 Julian Edelman 45.3 5.7 Andre Ellington 41.5 9.5
52 Jonathan Stewart 51 1 Todd Gurley 46 6 Brandon Marshall 58 -6
53 Keenan Allen 56.5 -3.5 Matt Ryan 75.5 -22.5 Zach Ertz 105 -52
54 LeGarrette Blount 73.3 -19.3 Jason Witten 103 -49 Jason Witten 103 -49
55 Zach Ertz 112.7 -57.7 Brandon Marshall 58 -3 C.J. Spiller 52.3 2.7
56 Cam Newton 81.2 -25.2 Zach Ertz 105 -49 Jonathan Stewart 48.3 7.7
57 Tony Romo 60 -3 Ameer Abdullah 47 10 Julian Edelman 45.3 11.7
58 Jason Witten 81.5 -23.5 Cam Newton 96.8 -38.8 Cam Newton 96.8 -38.8
59 Sammy Watkins 53.2 5.8 Tony Romo 86.8 -27.8 DeSean Jackson 62.3 -3.3
60 Andre Ellington 48.3 11.7 Jonathan Stewart 48.3 11.7 Tony Romo 86.8 -26.8
61 Dwayne Allen 119 -58 Giovani Bernard 59.3 1.7 Ameer Abdullah 47 14
62 Isaiah Crowell 94.5 -32.5 Andre Johnson 45.5 16.5 Sammy Watkins 52.5 9.5
63 Torrey Smith 102 -39 DeSean Jackson 62.3 0.7 Andre Johnson 45.5 17.5
64 Amari Cooper 50.2 13.8 Delanie Walker 116.5 -52.5 LeGarrette Blount 77.3 -13.3
65 Chris Ivory 80.5 -15.5 Amari Cooper 46 19 Delanie Walker 116.5 -51.5
66 Julius Thomas 76.3 -10.3 Sammy Watkins 52.5 13.5 Amari Cooper 46 20
67 Delanie Walker 129 -62 Ryan Tannehill 91.8 -24.8 Julius Thomas 86.8 -19.8
68 Julian Edelman 47.3 20.7 Julius Thomas 86.8 -18.8 Ryan Tannehill 91.8 -23.8
69 Andre Johnson 44.2 24.8 Roddy White 79.8 -10.8 Giovani Bernard 59.3 9.7
70 Vincent Jackson 74.8 -4.8 Eli Manning 94.5 -24.5 Dwayne Allen 145.8 -75.8
71 Jordan Cameron 93.8 -22.8 Philip Rivers 111.5 -40.5 Vincent Jackson 73 -2
72 Brandon LaFell 107.3 -35.3 LeGarrette Blount 77.3 -5.3 Chris Ivory 76.5 -4.5
73 Ryan Tannehill 96 -23 Allen Robinson 63.8 9.2 Isaiah Crowell 84.5 -11.5
74 Mike Wallace 83.5 -9.5 Brandon LaFell 93 -19 Brandon LaFell 93 -19
75 Martavis Bryant 66.8 8.2 Jordan Cameron 92.8 -17.8 Jordan Cameron 92.8 -17.8
76 Nelson Agholor 91.7 -15.7 Vincent Jackson 73 3 Eli Manning 94.5 -18.5
77 Ameer Abdullah 75.2 1.8 Rashad Jennings 71.8 5.2 Roddy White 79.8 -2.8
78 Eli Manning 88.2 -10.2 Chris Ivory 76.5 1.5 Philip Rivers 111.5 -33.5
79 Jeremy Maclin 65.8 13.2 Jeremy Maclin 58.3 20.7 Allen Robinson 63.8 15.2
80 Roddy White 86.8 -6.8 Anquan Boldin 102 -22 Torrey Smith 105 -25
81 Philip Rivers 99.3 -18.3 Dwayne Allen 145.8 -64.8 Jeremy Maclin 58.3 22.7
82 Allen Robinson 91.3 -9.3 Isaiah Crowell 84.5 -2.5 Rashad Jennings 71.8 10.2
83 Anquan Boldin 120.2 -37.2 Matthew Stafford 89.3 -6.3 Anquan Boldin 102 -19
84 Rashad Jennings 69.2 14.8 Joique Bell 70.5 13.5 Nelson Agholor 72.3 11.7
85 Marques Colston 122.3 -37.3 Heath Miller 198 -113 Mike Wallace 79.5 5.5
86 Antonio Gates 130.8 -44.8 Jarvis Landry 53.3 32.7 Matthew Stafford 89.3 -3.3
87 C.J. Spiller 79.2 7.8 Nelson Agholor 72.3 14.7 Heath Miller 198 -111
88 Eric Decker 116.3 -28.3 Torrey Smith 105 -17 Joique Bell 70.5 17.5
89 Matthew Stafford 78.3 10.7 Mike Wallace 79.5 9.5 Eric Decker 95.8 -6.8
90 Coby Fleener 136 -46 Eric Decker 95.8 -5.8 Jarvis Landry 53.3 36.7
91 Giovani Bernard 76.3 14.7 Colin Kaepernick 140 -49 Martavis Bryant 57.5 33.5
92 Heath Miller 160 -68 Shane Vereen 76 16 Antonio Gates 147 -55
93 Charles Johnson 104.5 -11.5 Charles Clay 190 -97 Charles Clay 190 -97
94 Charles Clay 179 -85 Larry Fitzgerald 92 2 Marques Colston 110.5 -16.5
95 Joique Bell 70.8 24.2 Antonio Gates 147 -52 Colin Kaepernick 140 -45
96 Tyler Eifert 163 -67 Devonta Freeman 92.3 3.7 Larry Fitzgerald 92 4

The “ADP” column is the the player’s current average draft position based on thousands of completed drafts. The “Diff” column represents the difference between the player’s ADP and my ranking for that player. A negative value means that I have that player ranked higher than his ADP. This data is useful in determining if it is time to select a player. For example, in standard leagues I have Martellus Bennett ranked at 44, but his ADP is 66. Based on my rankings he is a 4th round pick. However since he is going in the 6th round, I’d wait until the 5th round for Bennett and make a nice value pick. And if I can get him in the 6th, even better!

Le’Veon Bell is the to unanimous top pick in all formats. However, in standard format I’d have no issue with Adrian Peterson as the first pick. You know he’s hungry, and he’s got something to prove. Bell is suspended, and while it’s only for two games, it might be more productive to have Peterson for a full season than Bell for two games less. I can even make a solid argument for Eddie Lacy. Will Rodgers rely on him a bit more now with Jordy Nelson out of the picture?

Gronkowski in the top 5? Yes sir. He is that far ahead of the rest of the tight end field that his value at his position propels him an early-mid first round pick in my eyes. This is the same principle I argued on the baseball side of things for taking Buster Posey in the second (or third) round. And you know what, he currently has about 100 points more than the next catcher. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Here are some players that I think are being drafted too early:

Standard Format:
Julian Edelman, ADP: 47, Rank: 68
Andre Johnson, ADP: 44, Rank: 69
Joique Bell, ADP: 71, Rank: 95

PPR Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 79
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 86

PPR Half-Point Format:
Jeremy Maclin, ADP: 58, Rank: 81
Jarvis Landry, ADP: 53, Rank: 90
Martavis Bryant, ADP: 57, Rank: 91
Andre Johnson, ADP: 45, Rank: 63

And now some players that have great draft value:

Standard Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 50, Rank: 35
Joseph Randle, ADP: 55, Rank: 37
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 66, Rank: 44
T.J. Yeldon, ADP: 66, Rank: 46
Zach Ertz, ADP: 112, Rank: 55
Cam Newton, ADP: 81, Rank: 56
Isaiah Crowell, ADP: 95, Rank: 62
Brandon LaFell, ADP: 107, Rank: 72
Anquan Boldin, ADP: 120, Rank: 83

PPR Format:
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 25
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 31
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 35
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 64
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 67
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 71
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 81
Charles Clay, ADP: 190, Rank: 93

PPR Half-Point Format:
Russell Wilson, ADP: 57, Rank: 28
Greg Olsen, ADP: 58, Rank: 29
Martellus Bennett, ADP: 68, Rank: 40
Matt Ryan, ADP: 76, Rank: 49
Cam Newton, ADP: 97, Rank: 58
Tony Romo, ADP: 87, Rank: 60
Delanie Walker, ADP: 116, Rank: 66
Ryan Tannehill, ADP: 92, Rank: 68
Dwayne Allen, ADP: 146, Rank: 70
Philip Rivers, ADP: 111, Rank: 78

Please note that I am using 1-point PPR ADP for the half-point PPR formats as well. These numbers are likely very slightly skewed, but I do not expect them to be that far off.

Here are all 543 picks (Excel Spreadsheet).

Good luck, and don’t snooze on Greg Olsen!