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After publishing my first post on Razzball, I wanted to also offer my selection for the most overrated player in upcoming fantasy football drafts as Drew Brees. While Brees has been the model of excellence while quarterbacking the New Orleans Saints by averaging between 21 and 24 standard fantasy points per game since 2012, he is entering his 17th year in the NFL at age 38. For over a decade, Brees has had the pleasure of playing in a division with historically weak defenses while playing 10+ games per year in temperature controlled domes with an offensive mastermind calling the shots and incredibly talented weapons catching his touchdown passes. However, in the past 3 seasons, Brees has lost favorite targets such as Jimmy Graham, Brandin Cooks, and Marques Colston. Down the stretch of 2016, Brees only had a 7-to-7 TD:INT ratio in the final 5 games of the season, which was a main reason that the New Orleans Saints barely missed the playoffs with a 7-9 record. While the addition of Adrian Peterson to team up with Mark Ingram in the running game should take some of the onus off of Brees to carry the team on his back for another season, a stronger commitment to the running game would also limit red-zone touchdown and overall yardage production for the prolific quarterback.

As of July 25, 2017, Brees is the 3rd ranked quarterback on FantasyPros with an ADP of 40, which equates to a draft pick in the 3rd or 4th round in most standard leagues. FantasyPros experts ranked Drew Brees slightly below ultra consistent and elite quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, who have an ADP of 30 and 32 respectively. If a fantasy football drafter is going to be taking a quarterback somewhere between pick 30 and 40, which I personally cannot recommend, there is a huge drop-off between Rodgers and Brady to Brees. Additionally, the opportunity cost of taking Drew Brees in the 3rd or 4th round means that a drafter is consciously forgoing the chance to snag a target monster in wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, a potential workhorse running back in Marshawn Lynch or a touchdown machine at a very top-heavy position in tight end Travis Kelce when the production of lower tiered quarterbacks selected 2 to 4 rounds later can offer similar upside and consistency at a fraction of the cost.  To strengthen my claim that Drew Brees is being overrated, Brees does not deserve to be drafted over quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan with Julio Jones as his alpha receiver, youngster Jameis Winston with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson catching bombs and uber upside dual threat QBs such as Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota and Russell Wilson that have a high floor and ceiling due to rushing statistics and big-play ability on every snap.

Experts project Michael Thomas, Brees’ 2nd year top target, to catch 90+ receptions for 1,100+ yards and 8+ touchdowns, but there really isn’t a secondary or tertiary complimentary threat in the Saints offense. Coby Fleener is more of a safety blanket when the play breaks down Willie Snead is an above average slot receiver and Ted Ginn Jr. is almost exclusively a boom-or-bust deep threat.  Brees’ lack of passing weapons are certainly not on par with Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s receivers, but they might even be the worst trio of pass-catchers for any quarterback ranked in the top 12 and an ADP in the top 100. When diving deeper down into the ranking list of potentially less consistent and productive quarterbacks that can be selected in round 8 and beyond such as Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Carr, drafters can select a quarterback with weapons such as the consensus wide receiver #1 and running back #2 in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to pair with rising star Martavis Bryant from the Pittsburgh Steelers or highly drafted and insanely talented Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree from the Oakland Raiders.

BenK’s Razzball Ruling: Overrated! I certainly do not recommend drafting a quarterback in the early-to-mid rounds and suggest streaming quarterbacks weekly to exploit positive match-ups. I would not advise drafting Brees, especially before the more valuable candidates in and below his ADP tier.

If you don’t believe me, check out Razzball.com’s own rankings expert Jay and his 2017 Quarterback Ranking Rankings where he has Drew Brees as his fifth rated quarterback, a full two slots below the consensus value on FantasyPros…

 

 

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  1. LadyScorpio says:
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    Congrats on your 1st Razzball article! Though I do wish that you weren’t down on Brees as he is my favorite QB and I’m a die-hard Saints fan. Still, I understand your apprehension about his fantasy value for the 2017 season. How I wish the Saints could repeat their 2009 season!!! THAT would be glorious!! That team hasn’t been the same since the whole “bounty-gate” scandal. The Saints are the ONLY other team in the NFL that has been penalized in recent years other than the penalty stricken Patriots. Roger Goodell sucks!

    • benk

      benk says:
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      @LadyScorpio: Thanks LadyScorpio! It was very tough to have Brees on my overrated list because he is such a phenomenal quarterback and person (and I will certainly be cheering for him to prove all his doubters wrong), but his ADP is just too rich for my taste asI don’t see him finishing the season as the #3 or better QB based on statistics alone. However, if his price falls to the 6th to 7th QB range, I might hop back on the Brees train one more time.

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      @LadyScorpio: he only goes on personal vendettas on these things. NE got in the doghouse from GODdell covering up the tapes NE had back when him and NE’s owner were buddies, it made GODdell look like an idiot. many teams by reports did the bounties in those years (probably less now)

  2. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    colston was terrible way before he “left” so while i’d agree losing jimmer and cooks isn’t good, when colston actually left this helped brees.

    • benk

      benk says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: thanks for the read Jo Jo! Colston had a rough last year of his career in NO before retiring, but he had nearly 1,000 yards, scored 5TD and caught 60 receptions, 45 of which were for first downs, the year before in 2014. I’m sure Brees has missed a big bodied sure handed receiver like Marques Colston, the Saints all-time leader in receptions, yards and total touchdowns.

      Will you be taking Brees the first QB after Rodgers and Brady are off the board?

      • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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        @benk: good lord no, i’m not contradicting the main point of the article. and brees didn’t miss colston last year for sure from his stats. i did well with brees last year in one money league (and i’ve probably had brees in like 4 out of 6 years in that league, but it’s a 6 pt per TD league with bonuses for going over 300 yards throwing) but i’m pretty sure i didn’t have to pay top 3 QB pick on him last year, it seems odd he’d have moved UP at his age. i haven’t checked, but i think he was a late 5th or early 6th in that league last year (which IS valuetown)

        • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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          @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: and i’m not disputing that colston had a good career with brees, just saying the truth in that before he left they would’ve been better off with somebody else. it wasn’t quite as bad as how DEN won a SB in spite of the state of forehead (peyton) but clearly him and dilfer are certainly legitimate claims at worst QB to win a SB (when they won it)

          • benk

            benk says:
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            @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: fair enough, Brees has certainly won owners many leagues in the past and he does carry a lot more value in a 6Pt per TD league with passing bonuses. One of my best DFS weeks in NFL came from a Brees-Cooks stack against Detroit In 2015, so I certainly know his booming upside on a weekly basis.

            I too thought it was odd that Brees was ranked in the top40 overall and top3 of QBs on FantasyPros, which is why I wanted to highlight his overrated status in 2017 to Razzball readers.

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