Fantasy Football Advice

Here are the passing and rushing defensive rankings and matchups for this week. Take a look and if you have any questions be sure to ask!

Passing Defenses Week 10:

Rushing Defenses Week 10:

Chaz Schilens – The Raiders’ top receiver is back…with a mediocre performance.  I know Schilens only had three receptions for 27 yards in yet another pitiful Raider performance during which JaMarcus Russell was benched…again, and claimed he had no idea why he was benched…again.  Maybe Russell should be forced to watch the atrocity that is Raider wife-beating football and then he could understand how the rest of us feel.  Anyway, I digress.  Schilens, in all seriousness, is a great talent.  At 6-4 he can go up and get the deep ball and he has shown some good speed and quickness.  Last week he received four targets, second to WWF wrestler Johnny Lee Higgins.  I certainly wouldn’t waste a waiver on Schilens quite yet, but I may snag him off of free agency if you have an open spot, or I would at least keep an eye on him.  It’s a shame to see such a talent go to waste and I can honestly say I haven’t seen anything like that since…well…Monday night when vowel master Massaquoi fell victim to Quinn’s ineptitude.

Kenny Britt – With Gage held back (pun intended) with multiple, yes, multiple back fractures; Britt has and will be the starter across from Nate Washington in Tennessee’s improved offense.  Somehow Vince Young has managed to release the ball underneath that giant head of his and get the ball downfield without turning it over.  Last week, against a stingy Bills secondary, Britt led the team with five targets, hauling in two for 55 yards.  Earlier in the year, Britt showed big play ability but the geriatric Tom Collins, I mean Kerry Collins (alcoholic reference) wasn’t able to get him the rock.  I am actually contemplating spending a waiver claim on him simply because I believe in his talent and he could have an even better performance against Houston this weekend.

Brandon Gibson – The Rams announced early in the week that Burton is done for the year, which makes Gibson the starter across from Donnie Avery.  Last Sunday, Gibson led the Rams with nine targets, making good on seven for 93 yards.  With Bulger showing glimpses of his old, pro-bowl self over the past two weeks, Gibson is looking like a viable option in deeper leagues.  Additionally, Avery is now an option in shallower leagues or a must grab in deep leagues.  Gibson, a guy who is almost universally available, should get a lot of opportunities going forward, especially with the play of studly Steven Jackson who eats eight men fronts for breakfast.

Laveraneus Coles – Coles is certainly not a sleeper and he is probably unavailable in your league, but Coles’ embers are burning and he just might catch on fire.  With Henry done for the year, Coles seems to be the beneficiary.  Coles led the team in targets last week with 9 and he contributed five catches for 67 yards in the Bengals’ defensive slug-fest with Pittsburgh.  Over the last four games, Coles has averaged just over four catches for 54 yards.  A difficult man to start even in deep leagues at the beginning of the year, he may just be worth a flex spot against Oakland who will focus on 85.

Legedu Naanee-na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na, hey-hey-hey, Naanee - Legedu has a sweet name and sweet potential.  I certainly wouldn’t read too much into the fact that Naanee was the leading target getter last Sunday with four, or that he was the only Charger wide receiver with a red zone target, but I would feel comfortable with the fact that he made the most of those targets.  Jackson was bottled up by double teams all day, which allowed Naanee to catch three passes for 42 yards and a touchdown.  Naanee even stole a page out of former Boise State teammate Ian Johnson’s playbook when he “proposed” to a cheerleader on the sidelines after making his first regular season touchdown grab of his career.  While Floyd is still the number two guy, Naanee has been a consistent contributor to the Chargers’ offense (though to a much lesser degree).  If you are hurting badly, Naanee has matchup potential against a Denver pass defense that has been reeling as of late.  Over the last four weeks, Denver has given up the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing receivers with 24.3 per game and is giving up 1.7 pass touchdowns a game to receivers.

Deion Branch - yeah, I went there.  As you can probably tell from the aforementioned group of gentleman that I have already discussed, I am really focusing on sleepers and waiver wire guys this week.  Considering the trade deadline has passed in most leagues, I find it more practical to give you desperate owners in deep leagues some insight.  That being said, let’s talk about the 2^nd most targeted Seahawk receiver last Sunday.  Though he is obviously a shell of his former self, Branch had nine targets last Sunday and got two red zone looks (2^nd behind Housh who had three).  He snagged four balls for 50 yards and is averaging three receptions over the last four games.  Though I would not advise anyone to invest long term in Branch, he is facing a Minnesota pass defense that has been struggling without Winfield.  The Vikings rank 28^th in pass yardage allowed and have given up a dismal 14 passing touchdowns already this year.  Also, over the last four weeks, the Vikings have given up the 7^th most fantasy points to receivers (24.7 a game). Despite the pass rush and the loss of Julius Jones, I think it’s reasonable to start Seahawk receivers this week and if you’re incredibly desperate you could even start Branch.  I’m either a genius or an idiot.

Dennis Northcutt - was 2^nd to Calvin Johnson last Sunday with eight targets, catching four passes for 48 yards.  Stafford is playing well but I would beware of Northcutt as he is now the third receiver with Megatron now somewhat healthy.  However, Bryant Johnson or Northcutt could be a potential option this week against the dismal Browns who have given up the fourth most fantasy points per game to receivers of the last four weeks (25.7).

General Target Information From Week 10

League Leaders in Targets

1. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (18)

2. Desean Jackson (16)

2. Randy Moss (16)

4. Devin Hester (14)

4. Santonio Holmes (14)

6. Dwayne Bow(ped) (13)

6. Megatron (13)

6. Joshua Cribbs (13)

League Leaders in Red Zone Targets

1. Santonio Holmes (4)

1. Bernard Berrian (4)

1. Randy Moss (4)

4. Hines Ward (3)

4. Reggie Wayne (3)

4. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3)

4. Carolina Smith (3)

8. Jeremy Maclin (2)

8. Pierre Garcon (2)

8. Desean Jackson (2)

(7 more with 2)

Players With Highest Percentage of Team Targets

1. Randy Moss (23%)

2. Santonio Holmes (22%)

3. Joshua Cribbs (21%)

4. DeSean Jackson (20.5%)

5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (20%)

Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math Week 11

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Greetings Razzballers! We have come to the end of the trading season in Fantasy Football. This week is the last opportunity to move players and shuffle your roster in almost all leagues. So I will shift this column to align with what’s happening in Fantasy.

Beginning next week I will eliminate Tier’s I and II other than occasionally pointing out players I think are due for improvement or regression, just for kicks. Instead I will focus on Tier III players who are likely to be out there and available to claim on waivers or pick up via free agency.

At the beginning of next season I will once again resume Sleeper Math’s three tiered system because then you can actually make trades to grab those players. As an aside I would like to let everyone know that the writer’s here at Razzball have been talking a lot about next season already. We will have very extensive pre-draft rankings, downloadable cheat sheets (for PPR and standard), and discuss the top sleepers quite extensively. We are also going to discuss keepers in the offseason.

Tier I

Drew Brees 20 (10+10) – I really wish he’d stop finding his way on to this list since I own him in my most competitive league. He just hasn’t delivered consistently but I love his chances of rebounding (combined with the cupcake schedule) going forward.

Marques Colston 18 (9+9) – Partner in crime and another player who keeps finding his way on to this list. I lust Colston for all the same reasons as Brees. If the price is right feel comfortable about pulling the trigger.

Calvin Johnson 18 (9+9) – I’m as sick of having to put him on this list as he is of being on it and you are reading about him. His second game back was better than the first. He didn’t re-injure anything so you have to think he’ll only get more healthy from here. Stafford’s health also continues to improve. Calvin’s projections for this week (at least in Yahoo) aren’t very good so this would be a nice final opportunity for you to get him on the cheap.

LeSean McCoy 18 (8+9) – He’s the only player to move all the way up from a Tier III Sleeper to Tier I guy. I don’t have an award for that but if I did he’d get it. Some people might question placing this much value on him but he’s the only horse in the stable in Philadelphia; it’s questionable whether or not Brian Westbrook will even play at all the rest of the season. It’s very possible that you’ll think you’re giving up too much to get him but in reality you’re still buying production on the cheap.

Tier II

Steve Slaton 16 (9+7) – He’s moved in the wrong direction the last few weeks. There are a lot of question marks about whether he or Ryan Moats is going to be the man going forward. The playoff schedule is a cakewalk and Slaton’s got boatloads of talent; I’d pay what his value is right now to get the upside.

Justin Forsett 15 (8+7) – He is slated to get the start for the upcoming week. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the full time starter. This past Sunday he tore it up for over 20 points. I see him as a double-digit contributor if he remains at the top of the depth chart. He doesn’t have the best matchup this week but after that there are some weak defenses coming his way.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – in PPR. I’m just going to repeat what I said last week. This guy is still super undervalued and he could be a really nice flex starter for you in deeper leagues from here on out: “The Texans are a high powered offense and their passing game continues to be a strong source of Fantasy points. Walter is a poor man’s Wes Welker. In PPR that’s definitely a valuable asset to your team. Walter battled injuries earlier in the season but is getting more and more productive each week.”

Correll Buckhalter 15 (8+7) – For some reason he barely touched the football on Sunday. He did have a fumble early but I don’t see why McDaniel’s would strip him of opportunities entirely after that. It shouldn’t cost you that much to trade for him so I think he’s worth grabbing.

Tier III

Jason Snelling 15 (7+8) – In deeper leagues you should be using a waiver claim on him. Michael Turner might be out for multiple weeks; in fact it looks like he’s going to be despite the faux-optimism his coach is throwing out there.

Jerious Norwood 14 (7+7) – He was such a popular stash preseason, especially in PPR. Word on the street is he’s finally healthy. If that’s the case he could see some action while Turner’s out. Probably not worth a waiver claim but I’d snag him in free agency if there’s room.

Bernard Scott 14 (7+7) – Here’s what I said last week: “Cedric Benson is getting a ridiculous amount of carries right now. He has shown no signs of breaking down but you have to wonder how he’s going to hold up late in the season. Scott is a really nice stash in case he goes down.” I can’t say it any better this week.

Larry Johnson 13 (7+6) – I question whether or not Larry Johnson will step in there and start in Cincinnati right away. Unless Marvin Lewis announces otherwise I’m sticking with Bernard Scott as my recommendation for the player likely to hang on to the starting gig. He’s still worth stashing if on free agency, however.

Maurice Morris 14 (8+6) – Another week, another poor performance by Kevin Smith. The reports on him continue to get more and more negative. When Morris has gotten a chance he’s done really well. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions get fed up with Smith’s ineffectiveness and give Morris a shot.

Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – The gauntlet of injuries to stud running backs this past Sunday reminds us all that any player can go down at any time. Jennings really has no one competing with him for touches should something happen to Pocket Hercules. Stash away if you have space.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – What’s not to love? Jacobs and Bradshaw are sitting in front of him- both are big time injury concerns. That offensive line will create opportunities for him if he gets his chance.

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Maurice Jones-Drew had another huge game, but fell down at the one instead of running it in. No, he wasn’t drunk, at least I don’t think.  The Jags were down at the time so it seems like a questionable call, but hey, I don’t care about the real football, I needed those points!  MJD apologized to fantasy players and to himself, since he owns himself in his league, but this kind of fantasy play is uncalled for from MoJo.

Ronnie Brown: He had a TD and over 100 total yards before he went down with an ankle injury.  He thinks it isn’t that bad, but we have to wait for the physicians to do their thing.  He has a short turn around before playing Thursday night so even if he isn’t hurt badly I doubt he’ll play then.  Burn some incense and sacrifice a Harry Carson rookie card to the Fantasy Gods so he only misses the one game. If you have Ricky Williams, burn something else.

Michael Turner: The Burner had his ankle torched.  We have to wait on more word, but he also looks like he could at least be out a week or two.  Jason Snelling will be a good pickup if Turner is out for an extended period.

Justin Forsett: He totaled 149 yards and a touchdown with Julius Jones breaking a rib early in the game.  He is a must pickup even if Jones comes back in a couple weeks.  It’s hard not to see Forsett getting a lot more touches from here on out.  Sadly he plays Minnesota next week, but still.  If you are in a deep league you should also give Louis Rankin a shot.  He looked stout, quick, and fast on the touches he had.

Brian Westbrook: He suffered his second concussion this season in Sunday’s game.  This wasn’t just some twist of fate that he had this happen again. If we see him back on the field this season I will be surprised.  Lesean McCoy will take over for Westbrook, but who knows if the Eagles will remember how to even run the ball.

Darius Heyward-Bay: He dropped, juggled, and caused an interception as the Raiders were moving down for a possible winning score.  He no longer is just worthless, he is actively losing games in a worthless manner.

Beanie Wells: The guy is just too good to keep down for long.  Tim Hightower works well in the AZ system, but they are going to have to change the system because Wells needs to be in there.  He had 2 touchdowns and 117 total yards.  Buy high!

Jason Avant: 156 yards! Pick him up! Pick him up! Wait, on second thought, don’t.

Jamaal Charles: Finally! I talked to Haley right before the game and implored him to give the ball to Charles.  He said, “Suck it Doc!” I was a little upset, but I knew my man Charles would just go ahead and take control and give Haley no choice! Well, I hoped, and he did.

Cedric Benson: He left the game with a hip flexor, but out of all the running back injuries this weekend his seems to be the least worrisome.  I could see grabbing Bernard Scott, but I wouldn’t waste a waiver claim on him unless news gets worse.

Sidney Rice: The guy has sold his soul to Lord Favre and could be the last piece that will bring about Favrageddon!

Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Mike Bell: This three-headed turd is not making me happy.  Reggie had a nice game when it looked like PT Loser was the main man coming into a cake walk against the Rams.  I still think Thomas is the man for the rest of the year, but you can’t discount Bush as an erratic impact player.

Ladell Betts: He was supposed to be hurt and share the rock with Rock, but instead he ran for 126 yards and a TD against what’s supposed to be a good defense.  He’s gone from your free agent pools, but he made a strong case to be started even in tough matchups.

Calvin Johnson: He had a workman like performance for an elite wide receiver.  It was nice to see.  Eight receptions for 84 yards is a step in the right direction.  I think you’ll be glad you own him down the stretch.

Terrell Owens: He had a decent game, but was going all TO on everything.  He wants out of Buffalo before the blizzards hit.

Marques Colston: Another down game.  He will turn it around.  Grab him from the sweaty palmed Colston owner.

Donnie Avery: 2 touchdowns and 67 yards ain’t too shabby. He’s on a bad team, but he is by far the Rams’ best receiver and as long as he stays healthy he’ll get end zone looks. I would only use him in three wide receiver leagues though.

Bill Belichick: Peyton Manning’s bitch.

Sunday’s finally here! To start things off we have our “Matchup Savers,” players that you can start today if you’re in a pinch due to the bye week, injuries, etc. I do all of this within the context of 12 team leagues that are competitive. Often there will be more talented/valuable players than these available- take them unless you are really enamored with a certain matchup.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez: At home against a poor Jags secondary with Cotchery and Marshall healthy.  He’s worth a start over Alex Smith, oh wait, he already sucked all your potential fantasy points out of your team.

Vince Young: This recommendation comes to you via the ground instead of the air.  Young can run and the Bisons cannot tackle people who run.  Just hope he doesn’t try to throw too often.

Josh Freeman: Miami is not good at stopping the pass.  Freeman showed some brass ones against the packers last Sunday.  Miami should be able to control the clock and keep Freeman off the field, but I could see him throwing a strike to Winslow and Stroughter.

Running Backs

Rock Cartwright: The forgotten Cartwright brother should get some looks with Ladell Betts’ foot hurting. Denver is tough, but maybe you have Jacobs, Bradshaw, Slaton, Portis and a possible non-starting Deangelo Williams on your team.  Oh hell, just give up.

Kevin Faulk: You never know when he’ll grab a TD.  The heroes from this Pats/Colts game will probably be the ones you least expect.

Kolby Smith: He could get goal line carries if the Chiefs get any.

Wide Receivers

Robert Meachem: With Lance Moore out and the Saints facing the Rams he is a good play.  He’s owned in 23% of yahoo leagues which means he’s owned in about half of active leagues.

Davone Bess: He’s getting the targets as of late and gets a bad Tampa Bay defense to help him out.

Sammie Stroughter: He has a lot of speed and Freeman likes him. He’s worth a flier if you need another S.S. to compliment the Steve Smiths on your team.

Tight Ends

Brandon Pettigrew: There’s a chance he’s not a free agent, but if he is and you’re wavering about your TE, you can’t go wrong with whoever is going againt the Vikings. They are giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Gary Barnidge: He plays for Carolina if you are wondering.  And he’s better than Dante Rosario who is in the process of getting Wally Pipped.  Add to that the Falcons have given up the most yards to tight ends in the league.

Bo Scaife: He’s not great by any means, but the Bills are tough against wide receivers.  I expect Young to hand it off often, run it often, and check it down often.  Scaife should get some looks.

Defenses

Tennessee: They have been looking better as of late and with CJ running all over Buffalo the defense should have time to rest up for the QB stylings of Trent Edwards.

Atlanta: Carolina has Jake Delhomme, that always helps, but if Deangelo Williams is out that really boosts Atlanta’s D and they will be a sneaky play.

Oakland: Greg Ellis should be back which will help a little. KC will be passing and I could see some picks in this game, on both sides! Oakland has played much better at home and if you are desperate you can throw them out there and hope they stay upright.

Buy and Sell

If your trade deadline hasn’t already passed it probably will this coming week. I am going to lay out the prime targets you should be buying or selling. There are going to be some obvious ones on here.

Buy High

Andre Johnson/Fitzgerald/Wayne: These are the three receivers I’m laying out there as the best of the best going forward. Nothing mind blowing here. Johnson and Fitzgerald, in particular, have RIDICULOUS playoff schedules.

MJD/AP/Ronnie Brown/Ray Rice/Chris Johnson/DeAngelo Williams: This opens up a can of worms about other guys I left out/dudes that arguably shouldn’t be in this group. Nabbing any of these uber-elite players should certainly help your chances of going deep in the playoffs.

Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers/Drew Brees: This is the same grouping except for quarterbacks. It’ll probably be difficult to pry them away from their owners unless they have a really good secondary quarterback.

Vincent Jackson: Speaking of sweet playoff schedules….. Jackson started off the season hot and hasn’t slowed down since. The playoff schedule is right in your wheelhouse. I’m buying all day on him.

Sell High

Marion Barber: The whole world’s convinced that Barber’s multiple injuries are behind him. Sweet. Now you can unload him in case the masses are wrong (which happens OFTEN). I really am just not a big believer in messing around with injured players. This is an ideal situation because his value has recovered so you can get enough for him.

Miles Austin: Why you hatin’ on the Cowboys, yo? Here’s a great rule of thumb for you- whatever ESPN Analcysts profess, expect the opposite. The Cowboys are the greatest team ever- allegedly. Look they implode every year. Zero leadership, zero discipline. I’ll go out on that ledge right now. Even if you don’t agree with me you should be selling Miles Austin for the right price.

DeSean Jackson: He just isn’t getting enough catches. It’s tough to recommend selling him because he’s such a game breaker but the Eagles are too keen on spreading the wealth. Their Marxist-Lenninist philosophy leaves too many questions unanswered going in to the fantasy playoffs for me.

Ricky Williams: I’ve seen him dealt at a very high value in a lot of trades. There’s no reason to dislike what he’s done so far but the touches aren’t where you’d like them. If it weren’t for some longish touchdown runs in some games his production would be a lot lower than it is right now. If you can get value I’d feel very good about dealing him.

Hines Ward: He can’t possibly be this productive all season. I’m just saying…

Mario Manningham: Not that you’re going to get a ton for him or anything but unless you’re in a keeper league I’d look to deal him as part of a multi-player deal. The later in the year it gets in Giants stadium the harder it gets to throw the football. Add to that Steve Smith is clearly the #1 and Hakeem Nicks is getting more and more targets since getting healthy.

Buy Low

Brandon Jacobs: I hate Brandon Jacobs, the New York Giants, and everything that either one of them love. But the reality is that Jacobs has to be better going forward than he has been to this point. Bradshaw won’t usurp him as the #1 guy (a broken foot tends to make it harder to play football) and the Giants offense should be able to score points consistently.

Anquan Boldin: It’s time for Boldin to stud it up. I’m not going to go on a long diatribe and repeat myself from previous weeks. If you’re going to place a wager throw it down on this guy.

Beanie Wells: I’m buying Cardinals whenever I get a chance. The schedule is too good.  Wells has been a tough trade target because of his potential, but Hightower keeps doing his thing and holding Beanie at bay.  I can’t guarantee Wells will blow up in the second half, but I think he’s worth the risk for anybody who needs to make a push to get in the playoffs.

Dwayne Bowe: Hey this is Doc speaking, Drew hates Dwayne Bowe, so he would never say to buy him; I’m going rogue here! The Chiefs are a horrible, horrible team, but with LJ gone and my man Lance Long in the slot and Chris Chambers giving some name recognition to the #2 position I see ex-Pat Haley going for a pass heavy offense.  Does Bowe live up to his potential? No, but he shows flashes and with more opportunities even a blind squirrel can find a nut. His schedule isn’t great, but I think he can be had for cheap and Asomugha may make him even cheaper.  If you are looking to shake things up, take a flier on him.

Sell Low

LaDanian Tomlinson: His value has recovered somewhat; take what you can get now and run with it. He just doesn’t look strong running the football. It’s sad to see such a great player on the decline but its happening. Oh well, Hall of Fame shouldn’t be that bad.

Steve Smith (CAR): You might be able to trick someone into thinking that he isn’t bad anymore. Hopefully he’ll score a couple touchdowns today and boost his value up.

Greg Jennings: Deep threat receiver with a quarterback who might get sacked a record number of times. I tried to come up with something to like about his situation but I got nuttin.

Matt Ryan: He’s going to be great quarterback. In long term keeper leagues it’s legitimate to want to hang on to him. Otherwise his schedule the rest of the way is horrible and you should move him if the value’s there.

Roddy White: High up on the list of dudes you don’t want heading in to the playoffs in fantasy football, particularly as a high round pick. If you can get something decent in return I’d feel pretty good about it.