I’ve done some number crunching here to see who the best goal line running back’s have been over the last 3 years. Well, not exactly goal line, these numbers are all from the 5 yard line in. I’ll call it goal line because that sounds better and true goal line numbers are insanely small and make for a poor data set (like I know anything about math). Overall these numbers aren’t exactly indicators of what a player will do the next time he gets inside the 5 yard line but that area of the field is so insanely important that whatever happens there has been dissected by the coaching staff over and over. So anyway, let’s look at some of this stuff.
But before you do that (well I oughta!) check out our book giveaway.
First off we have the bell cow of all bell cows over the last 3 years, Michael Turner. He has 64 carries inside the 5 over the last 3 seasons and has taken 25 of those into the end zone for a TD every 2.56 carries. That ranks him 30th overall in TD rate but that’s not bad since he has a ton more attempts than most of the guys ahead of him. Of course all this work has worn the big-butted man down some. But he will be the goal line guy until he falls apart.
Adrian Peterson leads all running backs in goal line touchdowns because he is a man among boys. I hope he comes back sooner than later.
Matt Forte is an amazing talent but God-awful at the goal line. He’s had 33 attempts inside the 5 and only got into the end zone 3 times. I’m not going to lay that all on Forte but it’s still not good. Last season he only had 5 attempts and couldn’t get into the end zone on any of them while Marion Barber had 8 attempts and found pay dirt 4 times. Barber is gone but Michael Bush will take Barber’s place and he’s a much better player than Barber was last season. Bush saw a lot of goal line work in Oakland and finished his last three seasons with 15 touchdowns in 36 attempts. That’s better than Forte. Dur. Bush will be the goal line back.
For a smaller back Ahmad Bradshaw is quite efficient near the goal line. In 24 attempts he has 15 touchdowns. His foot problems are troublesome but with Brandon Jacobs gone he should at least see more work if healthy. He’s risky but every running back this season is to some degree.
Darren McFadden also has foot problems and also is quite efficient near the goal line. He of course hasn’t had many opportunities but he’s had 6 touchdowns in 7 attempts which is quite good. Of course he is an injury risk, but his upside is insane times insane which is twice the insanity.
Beanie Wells showed that he could play through injuries last season. His overall goal line numbers are good as well with 13 TDs in 25 attempts. Ryan Williams will be back this season but he still isn’t 100 percent and Wells played well enough to be the starter and goal line back once again.
In Kansas City we have two running backs in Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis. I don’t think I can will Charles to get the goal line carries but he has been pretty good at it with 7 touchdowns in 12 attempts for a nice TD per 1.71 attempts. Hillis of course has had more attempts with 9 touchdowns in 28 tries for a less good touchdown every 3.11 attempts.
Rashard Mendenhall: I was slightly amazed that Mendy had the third most goal line carries over the last 3 seasons and third most TDs. Of course he is hurt and could miss a lot of next season and our man Isaac Redman has a paltry 1 TD in 9 attempts, but 9 attempts is still fairly small. He should at least get his opportunities.
I just got back from an interesting shopping experience in Evanston, IL. By chance I saw a sign for a book sale and for me that’s like a sign promoting free donuts anywhere near Vince Wilfork. So I stepped in and it was a mecca of sports themed books! So I started perusing and grabbing and loading up boxes and as I perused and grabbed I started talking with Scott Clayborne who is an administrator with North Shore Youth Football. The book sale is a fund raiser for the program so that children who can’t afford the equipment and fees to play can receive scholarships. He said that last season they paid for 50 kids to play and didn’t have to turn down anyone. They hope to keep that number going up.
I remember as a kid having trouble paying for things like cleats and batting gloves and uniforms and fees for little league. We managed but it wasn’t easy. So after I heard that I really started grabbing books and decided I’d give some away on the site and help promote their cause. At this point they don’t have an easy way to donate but if you are interested in donating you can go here (same link as the “Buy Doc A Whiskey” link) and I’ll gather the donations and write them a check. Just make a note that your donation is for NSYF.
You can check out their site here and learn more about what they do. And if you are in the Chicago area go to 2422 Main Street, Evanston, IL and buy some books!
For our first book we’ll be giving away Total Patriots: The Definitive Encyclopedia of the World-Class Franchise. To be eligible you’ll need to be on Twitter and Re-Tweet this here tweet. And that’s all you need to do! I’ll announce the winner next Sunday 4/22.
If the Patriots make you ill we will be giving away other books so maybe you’ll find something you like as we go along.
So I’m going to mostly predict that Peyton will recover enough to be at least partly Peyton again. There is risk involved here but I just don’t see him starting the season still hurt. I truly have no idea how sound his body will be but he’s still Peyton Manning. The good news is that Manning is the perfect QB to play with a diminishing skill set. His ability to read defenses and make the easy throw should allow him to compensate for less arm strength. So with that caveat out of the way, what does Peyton do for this Broncos’ offense in terms of fake football?
First off, he helps everyone. Tim Tebow bogged that passing offense down like nobodies business, at least until the 4th quarter. That’s pretty much undisputed no matter what your feelings on Timmy Ballgame are. On average Tebow completed 10 passes a game or 46% of his passes. That’s not very good and made it so there just weren’t many catchable balls to go around. For Manning’s career he has completed 22.5 passes per game at a 65% clip. No duh you say and I say the same but it’s still worth looking at the disparity since it is so wide.
Some players will benefit more than others of course and those that can get on and stay on the field will benefit the mostest. Let’s first take a look at the receivers since Manning will be throwing the ball to them and then the RB(s) and then a TS and some other guy.
Demaryius Thomas: First off, why the “y” and the “i”? I see no need for both. But I digress. The one thing Tim Tebow did do well was flood DT’s inbox with targets. Some were pretty spammy but enough of them were well thought out and helpful enough for him to gain yards, TDs, etc… There is a decent chance that he’ll be Manning’s #1 target this season but it’s hard to see him getting more targets than Tebow was chucking at him toward the end of the season. The good news is that those targets from Manning will be better passes. For one thing teams won’t just assume Manning will throw the ball to Thomas, which will help, and they will also be more accurate and easier to catch. I see his production staying somewhat similar all around to his last 5 games last season which makes him a top 20 WR with upside to the low teens.
Eric Decker: I’m putting most of my marbles in Decker’s bag. That doesn’t sound quite right does it? Well, I’m doing it anyway. I’m a fan of his ability and I’m also liking this Manning guy. The best news for Decker is that Manning knows how to not lock onto one receiver like Tebow was wont to do. For the last 7 weeks of the season Thomas averaged 8 targets a game to Decker’s 4 and that included a 1 target game for DT. Last season was an odd one for Decker. He started with Kyle Orton as his QB for the first 4 weeks and he averaged 9 targets a game, 5 receptions, 67.5 yards and 1 touchdown under him. After Orton left, he averaged 4.8 targets per game. Naturally the number of targets dropped under Tebow’s offense but Decker still managed to find the end zone at an incredible rate for the number of receptions he had. He finished with 8 TDs on 44 receptions. He also only had 1 TD in the final 7 games when Thomas started getting zeroed in on. It was truly a roller coaster year for Decker who was on pace for 80 receptions with Orton and ended up with 44. That’s a paltry 2 receptions per game once Tebow took over. If healthy, that 80 reception year should be there with Manning as top dog, with an even higher ceiling.
Willis McGahee: McGahee had quite a rejuvenation under John Fox last season. The run first offense was good for him either with Tebow or Orton; he had good numbers under both. With Manning the offense will change but the convergence of Fox and Manning should still have plenty of opportunity for a running back. When the Colts had a productive running back they ran the ball often. Edgerrin James never had less than 334 attempts when he played all 16 games for the Colts. That might be the biggest concern for McGahee at this point, that he won’t play 16 games. But if he can, his prospects are still quite good, especially with Knowshon Moreno possibly starting the season on the PUP list and also not being very good. They may draft a running back so keep your eye on that. If they invest a somewhat early pick on one my McGahee love will temper even more.
Hundreds of NFL Mock Drafts are available from experts across the internet. Those Mock Drafts are constructed in Reality. This Mock Draft is based in Fantasy. We’re landing the perfect prospect on the perfect team… a match made in Fantasy Heaven.
Rules for the Fantasy Football Matchmaker:
Must have some basis in reality, i.e., the New York Giants are not drafting Trent Richardson.
“Reality” includes the selection of Offensive Linemen, Defensive Tackles, and 3-4 Defensive Ends.
Immediate fantasy appeal and opportunity.
Long term success rate.
Hitting the exact draft slot is a bonus, but not essential. If the Rams obtain my fantasy match at 2.07 instead of 2.01, fans will still rejoice.
In many cases, team positional needs should be regarded higher than any particular player. If a team in need of a cornerback lands Alfonzo Dennard instead of Stephon Gilmore, we’ll still be happy.
April 26: 2012 NFL Draft: Round 1, 8pm ET
April 27: 2012 NFL Draft: Rounds 2-3, 7pm ET
April 28: 2012 NFL Draft: Rounds 4-7, 12pm ET
1.01 Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck, QB
Stanford
Ignore the loud-mouth owner. Luck in Indianapolis is a certainty. Now they have six more rounds to find him some toys.
1.02 Washington Redskins (from STL)
Robert Griffin III, QB
Baylor
There is no doubt Griffin will be selected ahead of Luck in Re-Draft leagues.
1.03 Minnesota Vikings
Matt Kalil, OT
USC
Christian Ponder needs protection. The dominant tackle gives Ponder the best chance to succeed, and clears more room for Adrian Peterson.
1.04 Cleveland Browns
Trent Richardson, RB
Alabama
Peyton Hillis is gone, and there are very few faithful Montario Hardesty fantasy owners.
1.05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Morris Claiborne, CB
LSU
Keep scrolling down and you’ll eventually find the Tampa defense on the team statistics page. Even if Richardson was available, fantasy owners want to give RB LeGarrette Blount one more chance. Plus newly signed Vincent Jackson pushes the receivers back one level (where they belong), and a defensive pick is clearly the best fantasy move.
Let’s take a gander at the targets for tight ends to end last season. There’s nothing insane here unfortunately. For the most part the target numbers coincide with production. Tight Ends need consistent targets since they are rarely targeted deep. Rob Gronkowski led all tight ends with three 40+ yard gains while that would put 18 wide receivers ahead of him. So finding a TE who you know will get his 5+ targets a game can be valuable.
Who is the numero uno tight end for next season? This almost seems like an insanely silly question seeing as how Rob Gronkowski is a friggin unstoppable force. His numbers from last season were ridiculous. He broke records every time he stepped on the field and wasn’t lucky in doing so. He’s fast, strong, tall, has great hands and has the double B’s Brady and Belichick behind him. Let’s just bask a little in the Gronkness here (sans his douchieness which is well documented). His 17 touchdowns broke Antonio Gate’s record of 13 by, well, you can subtract. His 1,327 yards broke Kellen Winslow’s record of 1,290 receiving yards. His 27 touchdowns in his first two seasons beats Mike Ditka’s record of 17 by a whole bunch. And I’m sure there are some others out there. So his season was one of the best seasons by any player ever really. How often has a player broken both the total yardage and total touchdown records for their position? I’m still looking to see if it has happened. So with this kind of dominance why even question his #1 Tight End status in the draft rankings? Well, because Jimmy Graham still lives and breathes.
If it wasn’t for Gronkowski’s record breaking year it would have been Grahamkowski’s record breaking year. Graham finished the season with 99 receptions (9 more than Gronk), 1,310 receiving yards (17 less than Gronk), and 11 touchdowns (quite a few less than ol’ Gronky). So really, the only difference in fantasy production was the extreme TD production of The Gronkster. Will he be able to keep that kind of production up? Well, I’m no Mayan but the odds are somewhat tough. But I’m not just counting on his 18 TDs (one rushing that was pretty passy) dropping into a normal range because solely on regression, but maybe a little. Let’s take a look at some numbers.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Jimbo Graham
Total Targets: 124/149: Graham outdistanced Gronk in targets here fairly easily. Gronk of course was more productive with his targets but this is still a good sign, especially when you look at the next stat.
Percent of Targets: 12.8%/25.3%: Graham saw a quarter of all of Drew Brees’ targets last season while Gronk saw half of that number. I like when my player dominates his quarterback’s mind when looking downfield.
Red Zone Targets: 24/28: Inside the 10: 7/13: Inside The 5: 2/6: It seems the closer to the end zone the more often Tom Brady goes to Aaron Hernandez who had a league high 17 targets inside the 10, while in New Orleans Drew Brees begins to zero in on Graham.
I thought I’d take a look at the wide receivers with the most targets to finish the season. They are sorted by targets per game but that really doesn’t come into effect until #26 with Greg Jennings. So let’s take a look at some of the targeteers for the last 6 weeks of 2012 and see what we can learn.
Roddy White: -13-15-11-16-16-9 (80) — It will be interesting to see what happens with White’s targets next season but I have no doubt he’ll still be very valuable in PPR leagues even with Julio Jones most likely cutting into his overall numbers.
Wes Welker: -12-11-10-6-19-11 (69) — The addition of Brandon Lloyd could possibly hurt Welker somewhat but I believe the extra firepower he brings will keep Welker flush with underneath receptions and red zone targets. Everything seems set up perfectly for a big fantasy year from the Patriots receivers.
Larry Fitzgerald: -9-7-8-8-11-18 (61) — The Cardinals still don’t have a QB but Fitz still continues to be a reliable top 5 fantasy receiver. Some help in the draft could possibly take some pressure off him but no matter what, he’ll still be a target hog.
Percy Harvin: -8-9-15-7-6-16 (61) — Harvin was underutilized all of the first season, so much so that I prayed to Yahweh every night for Leslie Frazier to grow some brain cells in a petri dish, I don’t know, and insert them somewhere? Well, that must have worked because Harvin finished like a bat out of Hades and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be a top 10 or better receiver this season.
Hakeem Nicks: -12-12-10-12-7-6 (59) — Nicks is the prototypical #1 receiver and even with Victor Cruz having a breakout season and putting up insane numbers it’s hard to rank Nicks second to Cruz. As you can see their targets to end the season were nearly identical. Both are possible top 5 receivers but I still trust Nicks’ ability just a bit more.
Calvin Johnson: -8-9-4-14-6-17 (58) — Megatron is just too good and is the only receiver I’d take in the top 5.
Darrius Heyward-Bey: -10-8-9-9-5-17 (58) — If you risk a highish pick on a Raiders’ receiver you are probably going to be disappointed. Not because they can’t be worth the pick but because they will be injured or abducted by aliens. DHB had some crazy target numbers and is actually their “veteran” receiver but I’m afeared.
Victor Cruz: -12-9-9-9-8-11 (58) — He just kept kicking ass all season. Can he repeat? Possibly. I’ll draft him high but I’m not writing last year’s stats in stone for this year.
Brandon Lloyd: -10-2-12-9-12-11 (56) — Does Lloyd equal 2007 Randy Moss? No. Nobody does. Will that be his role? Most likely. And that role can be lucrative. ’07 was pre Gronk and Hernandez so it’s going to be a little tough to decipher who gets the majority of the targets week to week but there’s no reason to not like Lloyd to get deep ball targets and touchdowns.
Steve Johnson: -13-8-10-10-7-7 (55) — Stevie J should remain second tier good. The Bills defense is what’s going to most likely define them this coming season but Johnson will remain the go to guy in the receiving game.
Marques Colston: -6-10-7-9-11-10 (53) — Colston got lucky that he stayed with the Saints. He is no doubt very skilled and catches about everything thrown to him but he’s not a burner and needs Brees’ accuracy. His knees are still a little scary but if he’s healthy he’ll get his.
Pierre Garcon: -8-12-12-4-12-5 (53) — The Redskins overpaid for Garcon and they have a stable of receivers who will try to get on the same page as RG III. I rather trust Moss than Garcon in that situation.
Dwayne Bowe: -11-9-10-5-11-7 (53) — The Chiefs had a lost season with Palko playing Plinko with the football. Bowe started off hot with Cassel at QB so I’m fairly optimistic.
Santana Moss: -7-12-9-5-10-9 (52) — RG III is a special talent and I think Moss can help him by being a stable presence, but the whole offense is going to be in flux. He’s my choice out of the Redskins wide receivers but that’s not saying a ton.
April 15, 2012 by: Doc Category:
2012 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Daily Notes
April 13, 2012 by: Joseph Buccellato 
