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As the title states (SPOILER ALERT), Rudy Gamble (Stat Guru for Razz) joined me in our latest podcast, and it was a great conversation. Sure, I may be a biased source, but let me introduce you to these totally unbiased people sitting right next to me watching as I type this intro. They have given the thumbs up, and if you can’t trust me, trust them. And if you think I’m making this up, I can unapologetically confirm that I’m probably not. And talking about making things up, I got the opportunity to talk about the 2016 election in a way that won’t piss off anyone (maybe!) by going directly to the numbers. We talk about what it takes to create an aggregate system like the one Nate Silver has made famous at FiveThirtyEight.com, and what we can learn from that system when applying it to fantasy sports. True, we do get lost in the weeds a bit, wondering what it is exactly about Trump that allows for such a… unique and fervored following, but before we get into real trouble of entering an echo chamber, we switch directly into examining Rudy’s tools, and some ways that we can take advantage of projection systems in fantasy football, and furthermore, have a great back and forth on how to go about targeting players who might break out. I wish we didn’t run out of time, but we’ll have Rudy back on soon, so until then, enjoy!

  1. omar says:
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    Listening now. Love this stuff, keep it up….

    12 team 1pt PPR. Thinking about making this offer.

    Give
    A-Rob
    Ajayi
    Gillislee

    Get
    Dez
    Mark Ingram

    Rationale: Currently 7-1, and trying to line up roster for the playoff run. Don’t trust Bortles, and A-Rob’s playoff schedule is brutal, while Dez’s is very favorable. Like the recent usage from Ajayi, but I’ve been stashing Dion Lewis and would like to plug him in my RB2 spot for the stretch run. Don’t love Ingram, but he’s a good bench stash/possible flex based on matchups, and has a nice playoff schedule. Throwing in Gillislie because the trade partner owns McCoy.

    Current Roster:
    QB – Big Ben
    WR – A-Rob
    WR – Nuk
    RB – Lamar Miller
    RB – Ajayi
    TE – Gronk
    Flx – Diggs
    Bn – Eifert
    Bn – Dion Lewis
    Bn – Gillislie
    Bn – R Kelley
    Bn – Tyrell Williams
    Bn – Mariota

    Thoughts?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @omar: Thanks man! I like this trade for the boldness. I think you could use Dez here, and while the Ingram thing is worrisome, I’d be surprised if they willingly keep him out of the mix for too long.

  2. Cheese says:
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    3-5 in a 16 team 0.5PPR

    Give: Mike Evans and Greg Olsen
    Get: OBJ and Brandon Marshall

    Thoughts?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Cheese: wow, interesting. I think I want the Marshall side, but it’s close.

  3. Brian says:
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    Would you drop Travis Benjamin for Coleman or Parker ? Reading he has a PCL sprain and there is a,lot of mouths to feed in SD anyway just wondering what you think ?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Brian: I think I’d hold, but what are your other bench options? Parker might be worth an add.

      • Brian says:
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        @Jay:
        Watkins and JJ Nelson I read,Watkins should be back soon and he has a sweat playoff schedule and Nelson looks like the real deal can’t wait to see what he can do after the bye week.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Brian: Oh, yeah, probably hold then.

  4. GJH says:
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    Jay,
    I could use a QB with Brady on a Bye and Alex Smith getting dinged up. The available QBs are:

    Manning
    Tannehill
    Flacco
    Fitzpatrick
    Bortles
    Wentz
    Kaputznick

    Many thanks for the advice.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @GJH: Sure thing. I think I like Manning there right now, but double check tomorrow morning just in case. Rankings may change.

  5. William Hung says:
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    Jay – someone dropped Kenneth Dixon. Is he worth a stash? My drop would most likely be Peyton Barber if he sucks tomorrow night, if not, it’d be Kendall Wright or Sammie Coates.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @William Hung: Yeah, if Barber doesn’t show anything, that switch is fine. I’d rather keep Wright, Rudy had some nice things to say about him last night when prepping for the pod.

  6. Jtbleezt says:
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    See any trades I can make Jay

    My team:
    Rb Terrance west, Howard, Langford, sproles, shephard, Jordan Matthews, jj Nelson, Olsen

    Team A:
    Landry, Demarco, Rudolph, Ingram, Dwayne Washington, James white, Chris Thompson, eifert

    Team B: Mike Evans, Marvin jones, Montgomery, Gordon, charcandrick west, Lamar Miller, gio Bernard, dion Lewis

    Ppr league to

    • Jtbleezt says:
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      @Jtbleezt: deandre Washington*

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Jtbleezt: I don’t see any huge matches here, I hate to say it, but your talent isn’t something that I think people would go crazy for. Olsen would probably have to be paired with Howard or West, but not sure that gets you anything worth it.

  7. Brian says:
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    Okay podcast to much political talk though. I don’t know about you but I am so tired of hearing about this clown show lol.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Brian: We went at it from the polling perspective, since Rudy’s tools are actually sorta based on these aggregate systems used by people like Nate Silver, and it’s hard to stay away with it being such a huge part of our lives right now, and it’s something I at least enjoy discussing at a serious level. Second half is all football.

  8. Bock says:
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    Hey jay!

    .5 ppr league I just received a trade where I send Corey Coleman & I receive Russell Wilson.

    I’m only considering it because week 11 my matt Ryan has a bye & Wilson already had his bye.

    My WRs are Hopkins, Hilton, sanders, fuller, Shepard, hogan, Corey Coleman, moncrief, Watkins we start 3

    Or on the flip consolidate two of my WRs into a RB?

    Which level RB would you aim for? Also which two WRs to package? Who to offer to aquire Booker? I have Bibbs as insurance already

    My RBs DJ(bye), Gordon, Derrick Henry, Hightower, James Starks, Bibbs

    Or drop Bibbs for any of these available RBs? Alf Morris, small wood, ty Montgomery (RB/WR), paul Perkins, Damien Williams, don Jackson, farrow (cuff for Gordon), jujuan Harris, Mike Davis?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Bock: Yeah, I like that trade. I’d do it. And actually, I think Gordon is a RB1 now, so your situation there might be fine. If you need a flex upgrade, maybe combo Hilton and Hightower.

      • Bock says:
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        @Jay:

        Good idea, I’m all about wheeling /dealing what type of RB range (I can use this week at RB2 & flex going forward I should target by dealing Hilton + Hightower?

        • Bock says:
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          @Bock:

          Thoughts on smaller deal to aquire Jeremy hill for depth ?

          Henry + moncrief? Or Hightower + Shepard or fuller? He owns Ingram

          • Jay

            Jay says:
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            @Bock: Yeah, I like that a lot. Maybe see if Ingram is for sale first.

            • Bock says:
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              @Jay:

              Thanks jay! I’ll see if he’s selling Ingram but looking at his RBs he’ll take a hit trading Ingram. He lost AP, he just traded away spencer ware for Jordan Reed. His RBs are Ingram,James white(bye), hill (bye), Jordan Howard (bye), Ivory,Asiata.

              But with him having Ingram + Jordan Howard + white + Asiata too & if I give him Hightower as a RB plus a WR he should be fine

              • Jay

                Jay says:
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                @Bock: I hear ya!

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Bock: Hmm, probably see if that’s enough for Gurley at this point. Aim high and see what happens.

  9. William Hung says:
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    Awesome podcast, even with the Trump stuff in there… haha.

    One question I have is regarding the last 20 mins when Rudy basically said it comes down to opportunity and guesswork for RBs and a little less so for WRs – so I was wondering if you guys do “Market Share” trends to try to find players who are getting the ball more or less week to week. So if we have Player A who is a RB and hasn’t done anything the first 4 weeks, but then the past 2 weeks had his snap count rise 10% each week, and along with that the carry % went up 5% and the reception % went up 5% it might give you an edge in identifying a sleeper before everyone else.

    Another aspect is how the team trends offensively… for example, if we take Player A and put him on a team like the Vikings, he’d be pretty valuable, but if we put him on a team that primarily passes, then the carry % is probably not carrying much weight.

    For example, CJ Prosise appears to be a player on the rise as he got 23 snaps to 28 for Christine Michael and now had Carrol “coach speak” and say he will be more involved. That could make a lot of people interested.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @William Hung: Thanks man! This is more of a Rudy question I think, I’ll forward to him and see what he has to say.

    • The Harrow says:
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      @William Hung: exactly who by being on the Vikings is MORE valuable than an average fantasy production team? i’m quite sure you put mckinnon on a team with an average or better O-Line or a QB better than bradford and his stats would actually be pretty good, whereas they aren’t on MIN at all.

    • @William Hung: Sorry for the delayed response. The ‘market share’ data you’re talking about are currently just factored into my projections and shared in the football player pages. I convert snaps into a percentage of team snaps so it’s easier to compare across games. I do the same with rush distribution and target distribution. Your logic on Michael/Prosise makes perfect sense. See your point about putting together a post that highlights players with significant changes in snaps/rushes/targets. Will keep that one in mind.

  10. Mordacious Levator says:
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    same league mentioned earlier. start ONLY 2 RB (no flex). have l.bell/d-will (PIT)/howard/langford/kelley/d.lewis (in RES slot somebody’s dropped if/when he’s brought out)/thompson
    record is 7-1, with 2 game lead on 1st place (but multiple guys at 5-3). there’s money in most points (me by still over 100 even with a bad week 8 where i punted D/K and forgot to get cobb out, which only lost me about 6.4 or so points). PPR. due to byes only guys i have playing right now are the two PIT guys. drop kelley (or langford, but he seems more important to keep in case CHI management gets goofy again) for any of these for one week guy (using fantasy pros RB/PPR/top 40 or better only rankings)
    d-wash (OAK) vs DEN
    ivory @ KC
    ward @ TB
    draughn vs NO
    d-will (MIA) vs NYJ
    barber vs ATL
    rainey vs PHI
    perkins vs PHI
    m.davis vs NO
    harris vs NO
    turbin @ GB
    i’m currently with d-will (PIT) being in lineup favored by smallish margin.

    • Mordacious Levator says:
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      @Mordacious Levator: also money for best record in season (and a bye for top 2 spots). when i say “top 40” i mean i ONLY use those who’ve been top 40 in 2016 at PPR RB’s.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Mordacious Levator: I think you’re actually okay holding right now. I kinda like where Kelley is going.

  11. Jtbleezt says:
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    He won’t do Olsen and west for ajayi because it’s his keeper In a Ppr league

    Try and get freeman, forte, Lat Murray, Yeldon, riddick from him
    He offered me forte for my Greg Olsen

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Jtbleezt: Ah, I gotcha. I’d aim for Freeman, but the Forte for Olsen deal seems fair.

  12. goodfold2 says:
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    12 team .2 PPR (so standard really)
    own max 6 RB, start 3 with 2 flexes. have langford/howard/mccoy/ingram/dixon/rawls. drop anybody for any of: jennings/hightower/starks/antone s/ward
    guessing at this point have to gamble on dropping langford for at least one of jennings/hightower/antone S? that order or different (or anybody else too?)

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @goodfold2: I’d probably trade in Langford for Jenings. And yeah, I like that order.

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