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Hey everyone, welcome to the weekend! It’s been a long week (or at least for me), but we are finally here. It’s Saturday. The ‘Bama game will be on soon.

For those that don’t know, I am currently a student, and I’d like to talk about something I’m currently studying. In my Psychology class, we are going over memory processes, which includes mostly recognition and retrieval; fully understanding an event (or series of events) that has just occurred, or remembering an event (or a series). Some of you may already know a little bit about this. Two of the bigger terms we are covering currently is constructive processing and hindsight bias (lightbulb!). Constructive processing refers to the retrieval of memories in which those memories are altered, revised or influenced by newer information. Hindsight bias, on the other hand, is the tendency to falsely believe, through revision of older memories to include newer information, that one could have correctly predicted the outcome of an event. Know the term “Monday Morning Quarterback”? That’s a prime example of hindsight bias.

Fantasy Football is purely based on interpreting data (doesn’t have to be numbers and charts, it could be just injury news, matchups, etc.) and applying this info to our lineups and teams for the week. But sometimes, past events has a great influence over our future moves. Have you ever said to yourself, “Jesus man, why the hell did you not start ____ against the ____?? Stupid!”. Don’t fault yourself, that is a pure example of hindsight bias. We’ll try to eliminate recent events from our thinking, but it’s nearly impossible to do so. This player has been on fire, let’s continue to ride the hot hand. Should we always think this way?

Let me bring this back to the week ahead, by going back to last Sunday night, where the Cowboys mounted a pretty sizable comeback en route to an overtime victory against Philadelphia. Was this shocking, especially the results of Dez after a full comeback from his injury? I say yes. The Eagles had (and still have) arguably a Top-5 pass defense, and against a WR who hadn’t seen the field in a while, all looked good and well for the Eagles to make a strong statement on prime-time TV. But that wasn’t the case, Dak and Dez looked very good together, especially when you consider they hadn’t had a chance to form completely chemistry. So when we consider all the factors, was the result truly surprising? Sure, it was a tough matchup on paper, but Dez has been one of the best offensive weapons in the last couple of years when healthy, with arguably the ROY lead dog at the helm, we should have been all over him. And, we should be on him as a Top-5 wideout rest of season.

Oh, and this week he’ll play the Browns.

Start(s) of the Week: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant

Let’s work with this in three separate parts for these three guys we have here today. First, we have Dak Prescott, arguably the leading Rookie of the Year candidate, and the stats show nothing less. In QB DYAR and DVOA, he ranks third in the NFL, and in total QBR, he’s second in the league behind our good buddy Tom Brady. But there is one problem with Prescott, and that is the fact that this Cowboys offense isn’t as agressive than we’d like. You can’t blame them, they’re freaking 6-1, but the fact of the matter is that Prescott isn’t throwing it as much as we’d like, especially in the redzone, only 35 passing attempts within the 20 all year, and in general, only 9 TD’s on the year thus far. However, there is a reason to feel good about him in Week 9, and that is because they’ll be facing the Browns. Cleveland has seen better days on the defensive front, as on the year, they have allowed 288 yards and 2.4 TD’s on average. Plus, they’ll possibly be without CB Jamar Taylor, who is suffering from a groin injury.

Which leads us to Dez. The Browns have allowed close to 2.4 TD’s per game, and they’re gonna be without their #2 CB. You do the math.

Finally, we have ‘Zeke. You don’t me to tell you that he’s been playing very well so far, as he has scored 5 times on the year, and purely based on running workload, he’s been one of the best, with the best Success Rates in the NFL at 57%. He’ll be squaring off against a Cleveland defense that has given up, on average, 127 yards with 1.3 TD’s per game. You can also make the #NarrativeStreet point that he’ll be returning to Ohio. Either way, you win.

It’s shaping up to be a very nice game from America’s team.

Note: I will be more than happy to answer specific lineup questions below, but I won’t be selecting the “obvious” plays unless I don’t think they are so obvious. Regardless of a great matchup, you won’t see names like Tom Brady, David Johnson or Antonio Brown. Those are no-brainers. Fire ’em up with confidence. 

Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em:

Philip Rivers (vs. TEN)

Rivers has been an absolute stud this year under OC Ken Whisenhunt, and it shows in his highly effective passing (correlates with the high number of passing attempts) and QBR ratings. He’ll get another great matchup against the Tennessee Titnas, a secondary that ranks 24th in the NFL , and is one of the more funnel-y defenses, ranking 9th against the run. It’s a great matchup for Rivers, and Williams, and even Gates this week. Lots of scoring should occur for the Chargers in this matchup.

Ryan Tannehill (vs. NYJ)

Tannehill, believe it or not, actually has a great history against the Jets, averaging 24.0 fpts per game against them in his last two games. Most recently, in Week 12 of the 2015 season, he posted 351/3 TD’s and 1 INT. The Jets secondary is beatable right now, and playing behind of the better offensive lines in the sport today.

Nick Foles (vs. JAX)

Foles has actually had a nice history against the Jags back when he was an Eagle, and under Chip Kelly where he’ll be under now when he takes the field on Sunday. The Jaguars defense has been pretty putrid till this point simply due to the fact that they don’t have enough time to rest because of the offenses’ continuous 3-and-outs. Foles is a nice bye week option for the Brady owners.

Sit ‘Em:

Here is what I am going to say. Except for those select few “duh” sits at the position, there aren’t any bad plays at the QB spot for Week 9, kinda like last week. There are a whole bunch of QB’s this week that I look at them and think, well, maybe they aren’t top-5 options, but you aren’t benching them.  Matthew Stafford? I’m not crazy about him, and if you have better options I could see him as useful, it’s a bad matchup in theory, but Cutler had some success last week, and Detroit is still a high-powered offense.. Derek Carr? He’s got a tough matchup in theory, but he is so active not only on the basis of passing attempts,the entire Oakland offense is one of the best in the business, and Aqib Talib will miss the day.. See what I mean? Drop a comment below for your specific questions regarding the position and we will tackle the week ahead together.

 

Running Backs

Start ‘Em:

Carlos Hyde/DuJuan Harris (vs. NO)

If Hyde plays, he is a strong candidate to finish in the Top 10 of all backs when it is all said and done. Hyde will get his chance, like so many before him, to square off against the sieve that is the New Orleans Saints rush D. Ranking as the 28th best (per FO) defense against the run, the Saints, on average, yield close to 26 fantasy points per game. Plus, the Saints will most likely be without OLB’s Dannell Ellerbe,Stephone Anthony, ILB James Laurinatitis in this game, which is absolutely perfect for whoever gets the start in this game.

Charcandrick West (vs. JAX)

Both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry had field days last week against Jacksonville, and the way the Jags’ offense has been rolling right now, I wonder if it is a matter of time before Jacksonville fires Gus Bradley. With how bad the Jags’ offense is, other opponents will eventually start to constantly run the ball throughout most of the game. West steps in as the replacement for the time being under Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles, and he gets a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 27th in the NFL against the run.

Tim Hightower/Mark Ingram (Flex Only for Ingram) (@ SF)

I’m going make this a short and simple as I can. The Saints rush defenses is brutal as of right now, ranking as the 28th best defense against the run. As we saw earlier in the year where both Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman like that? Although Hightower and may be the lead in the RBBC, it’s still an RBBC, and both backs should get theirs.

Sit ‘Em:

Matt Forte (@ MIA) 

So after what seemed to be a long stretch of some very bad games for Forte after his very good start to the season, we have seen the veteran post some very nice numbers against the Ravens and Browns in back-to-back games over the last two weeks. However, I would strongly suggest you bench him for this week. Not only is it a tough matchup in general (on a fpts per game basis, they’re a top-10 unit against the run), they’ve only allowed 0.3 TD’s per game to the running back position, and only 25 yards receiving. Throw in the fact that LT Ryan Clady and C Nick Mangold will likely miss this game, it really is not looking good.

LeSean McCoy/Mike Gillislee (@ SEA) 

It’s a pretty murky situation here. As of Friday, McCoy was again limited in practice with his lingering hamstring issues, and he has a chance to play Monday night in Seattle. For the long term, I hope he doesn’t suit up. Then we have Gillislee, who has shown us at times to be a very solid backup plan for the McCoy owners, but can we trust him here against Seattle in Seattle? I’m very hesitant to say yes. Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin have returned to practice after some injury concerns, but the Seahawks shouldn’t have any issues taking care of any aspect of this Bills offense. The Seahawks, like always, have been successful against the run this year, only giving up close to 80 yards on the ground per game. It’s best to stay away.

Latavius Murray (vs. DEN)

First, let’s get the fact that he’s never been quite good against the Broncos out of the way. Over his last 4 games against the team, he has averaged just 2.6 YPC, and has never gotten more than 40 yards on the ground. As a defensive unit this year, the Broncos have been really stout against the run. Although they rank 14th in the NFL against the rush this year (per FO), they have allowed only 93.8 yards per game, with 0.5 TD’s along the way. And, ILB Brandon Marshall should return this week from his hamstring injury. The only good thing for Murray here in this matchup is that the Raiders could be without FB Jamize Olawale, or select to give him less work, which could lead to more redzone work for Murray, but that’s if they even get there.

Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em:

Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton (@ GB)

The Packers secondary has played okay this year, ranking 12th in the NFL against the pass (per FO), yielding 173 yards and 1.4 TD’s per game, on average. However, this is a great spot for both Indy wideouts. The Packers will most likely be down two men in their secondary coverage,  CB’s Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins, escalating Moncrief and Hilton’s matchups into Top-3 territory. This is a very Indianapolis offense right now, and we saw how good Moncrief did getting back into the gruve, and Luck should have no problem Sunday.

Terrelle Pryor (vs. DAL)

So yes, Josh McCown will not get the starting job for Sunday against the Cowboys, but this is still a very good matchup to go back to the well for Terrelle Pryor. Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne (groin) and S Barry Church (forearm) are both set to miss this game, leaving some mis-matches on the 6’4 wideout. As a unit with Claiborne and Church, this Dallas defense is a middle-of-the-road one at best, but even still they allowed, on average, 167 reception yards and 1.1 TD’s per game. Pryor is unquestionably Cleveland’s #1 offensive weapon, and should have no problems whatsoever against this Dallas secondary.

Brandin Cooks/Michael Thomas/Willie Snead (@ SF)

San Francisco’s secondary is pretty bad, and they are about to show us how bad they really are especially without CB Rashard Robinson. On the year, the Niners secondary yields 142 receiving yards and close to 2.0 TD’s on average. However, over the last 2 weeks, they have given up close to 190 yards and 3.0 TD’s per game. Throughout the entire year, Football Outsiders has ranked them as the absolute worse secondary in the NFL, ranking 32nd in DVOA given to opposing #1’s, and Cooks is in prime positioning (although who isn’t in this offense? All 3 wideouts are Top-20 material tomorrow.

Sit ‘Em:

Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (vs. DEN) 

Yes, Aqib Talib will miss this game, so there is some hope, but Wade Phillips knows how to shut down these wideouts.  In three straight games against Denver, Crabtree has failed to register more than 10 fantasy points, only catching 4 targets in each game, never topping over close to 55 yards during that span. Meanwhile, for Cooper, he was really silent against them in each of his two games last season, posting 4/47 last year, while registering 0 points in the second meeting. We might be getting to a point where you just cannot bench these two, but it should be known that they do not have a good history against the Broncos, and in general, this is a very tough matchup, as Denver has limited opposing wideouts to less than 100 yards per game. I don’t feel too good about this matchup.

Marvin Jones (@ MIN) 

He’s been slipping ever since a few weeks ago when he broke out against Green Bay, and last week against a supposedly easy matchup against the Texans, caught 3 balls on his 7 targets, good for 33 yards, and this week, he’ll still be without a break, as he’ll likely see CB Rhodes in this matchup against a defensive unit that ranks 4th against the pass.

Tight Ends

Start ‘Em:

Kyle Rudolph (vs. DET)

As a whole, the Lions rank as the 27th defense against the TE position (per FO), giving up close to 18.25 fpts per game in PPR leagues, and 12.25 fpts per game in standard scoring leagues. This week won’t get any better for the Lions against the position, as again they’ll be without  OLB DeAndre Levy with a knee/quad injury. Rudolph also has a nice history against the Lions, catching a TD in both games against the Lions last year. He’s a Top-5 option at the position this week with Gronk on a bye.

Antonio Gates (vs. TEN) 

As Hunter Henry will be out this week due to injury, the ol’ man will take the field to teach these young kids to stop hitting the whip and how to start playing football the way it was meant to be played. Or, in other words, go off and score a crap ton of TD’s against a Tennessee defense that if very funnel-y, ranking as the 24th-best D against the pass, but 9th against the run. He’s had some issues with drops, but he is usually active in that offense, and should get even more attention to Gates with Henry out of the lineup.

Sit ‘Em:

Julius Thomas (@ KC) 

First off, it’s never easy to travel to Arrowhead, and it certainly isn’t easy as a TE traveling to Arrowhead, as the Chiefs rank in the Top-5 of all defenses against TE’s, allowing only 38 yards per game to the position. The Jaguars offense is pretty bad right now, and it shouldn’t get any better in this matchup.

Kickers

Start ‘Em:

Mason Crosby (vs. IND)

In a game with two weak secondaries facing off against pretty efficient offenses, there should be plenty of points had on both sides. Although he’s only had 6 FG’s in the last 3, Crosby should directly benefit from the high-scoring nature of this game.

Sit ‘Em:

Chris Boswell (@ BAL) 

Don’t these Pittsburgh-Baltimore games always seem like the stereotypical kicker-type game, with a likely final score of 13-10? Well, although this might be the case, he’s only had 3 FG’s in the past 2 games, and there are safer options tomorrow.

Defense & Special Teams

Start ‘Em:

Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ)

This Dolphins D/ST is a pretty sneaky option for those streaming or have bye weeks issues. Like I mentioned above, their pass rush and defensive 7 are pretty good thus far into the season, while the Jets, not only starting the inefficient QB under center, they’ll be without LT Ryan Clady and C Nick Mangold. The upside with sacks is pretty real.

Sit ‘Em:

New York Giants (vs. PHI) 

The Giants are not that bad of a defensive unit, believe it or not. They rank 9th in the NFL against the pass, and 12th against the run (per FO), which is very respectable, but the matchup is average at best, and this Eagle offense is still an efficient one, so there are better options on Sunday.

 

Thanks for sticking around to the end for what is shaping up to be a great ninth week of the NFL season. As always, if you agree or disagree with a player above, or have a general question or comment about your team, please do not hesitate to leave one below.

Best of luck, and I’ll talk to you guys next week as we try to get your team to 10-0 on the season.

 

 

You Can Follow Zach on Twitter @ohuhave12.

  1. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Zach! Do you like Fuller, J.J. Nelson, or Kendall Wright ros? Also, Henry, Jennings, or Hightower in a full point, PPR this week? Thanks and enjoy the weekend!

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Jerry: ‘Sup Jerry! For the backs, I will go with Hightower. For the ROS wideouts, I got Kendall Wright.

  2. Jeff says:
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    Hi Zach –

    I have Jack Doyle as my TE, but with Allen coming back I have concerns. Ebron and Witten are both available. Should I drop Doyle for one of those? Which one seems better for this week and for ROS?

    Thanks,
    Jeff

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Jeff: Yes, I don’t know yet if Doyle is better than Ebron rest of season, but I 100% think you should drop him this week for Ebron.

      • Zach

        Zach says:
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        @Zach: Oh, and ‘Sup Jeff!!!!

        • Jeff says:
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          @Zach: Thanks Zach – well, as it turns out Ebron is already gone. Witten or Doyle? Thanks!

          • Jeff says:
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            @Jeff: By the way, I also have Eifert on bye, so the ROS isn’t as big a deal for me.

            • Zach

              Zach says:
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              @Jeff: Gotcha gotcha. I would stick with Doyle then.

              • Zach

                Zach says:
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                @Zach: Actually, I would wait to see if Allen is 100% going. If he is, then Witten, if not, then Doyle.

                • Jeff says:
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                  @Zach: Great. Thanks so much!

  3. STL says:
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    I need to pick two in PPR. I’ll probably need to start the higher-upside guys because I’m already going against that massive Mike Evans game from Thursday.

    Here are my options:

    Charcandrick West
    Theo Riddick
    Allen Robinson
    Ty Montgomery

    Which two would you go with this week?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @STL: West and Riddick.

  4. William Hung says:
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    Zach – you feeling the Kaep hype v. the Saints or feeling Tannehill is the better play? I keep flip flopping between the 2 since I am playing both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, so if the Dolphins have success in the air against the Jets, I’ll be in great position but if they bomb I might end up with like 30 points.

    The other decision I’m 50/50 on is Sammie Coates or Kendall Wright. Where should I go? I play in .5 PPR

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @William Hung: I’m feeling Tannehill as the better option. Their O-Line is one of the best units right now, and we’ve seen New York’s secondary exposed greatly.

      Kendall Wright.

  5. Cram It says:
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    Man I’m really struggling with the Stafford or Tannehill nod. Staffs been my guy all year and he’s only had 2 games under 15 pts. But obviously faces the toughest D, BUT he’s also had success against tough D’s. Every site seems to have him ranked 10-12. I’m just looking for 15-17 pts out of that slot. Don’t need the 300 yd/3 TD game but can’t afford a dud either. I’m leaning Tanny right now. Gun to head, who’s your safer play? Thanks.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Cram It: I agree with you on almost every aspect. Tannehill.

      • Zach

        Zach says:
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        @Zach: Actually let me change my original decision. I think based on safety alone, you roll with Stafford, only because he’s going to outproduce Tannehill based on Volume alone. The upside is more prevalent with Tannehill than it is with Stafford, but the numbers are gonna be there, and you should start him regardless of the supposed tough matchup.

        • Cram It says:
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          @Zach: Word. Thank you.

  6. Chris says:
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    10 tm 2 QB league, I have to play Carr or RWilson, Foles is on waiver wire….Leaning Carr? Thoughts? Hilton, Moncrief, Cooks, DAdams, need 3 who sits? Thanks

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Chris: Carr. It’s a tough matchup but the volume is going to be there. However, it is very close, and it is up to you. For the wideouts, this is an easier decision. Hilton, Moncrief and Cooks.

  7. Nightpandas says:
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    Trying to snap a 3 game losing streak, .5 ppr 12 teams

    1 Newton or Rivers

    2 Need 2 of Asiata, Ry Matthews, Henry or drop one and add Harris to mix

    3 Roll with Hurns and Shepard or drop one (or both) for Kelley, Stills, Janis, Quick

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Nightpandas:

      1.) Newton
      2.) Henry and Ryan Mathews.
      3.) Keep Hurns and Shepard.

  8. Todd says:
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    Hi Zach, PPR flex…I already have T. Pryor starting along with O. Beckham….would you go with J . Maclin or C. Coleman at flex???? Thanks

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Todd: ‘Sup Todd!!

      Coleman has a little bit of upside, but you should still roll with Maclin.

  9. Goingdeep says:
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    Rate this trade please. D. Johnson Gordy and Palmer for Zeke Moncrief and Ryan.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Goingdeep: B+ for your end.

      • Goingdeep says:
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        @Zach: I didn’t say what side was mine

        • Zach

          Zach says:
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          @Goingdeep: I was assuming you were receiving Zeke Moncrief and Ryan, no?

          • Goingdeep says:
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            @Zach: yes thanks just hope Goodell doesn’t try to make an example out of Elliot.

  10. andrewm says:
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    I have both Ingram and hightower 1w team standard who do you like more?
    Jones Jr
    Macklin
    Latavious
    Mccoy
    Bench*
    Adams
    Enunwa
    hightower/ingram
    *any week 9 lineup thoughts? Thanks duder

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @andrewm: Pretty solid lineup, I would roll with Hightower.

  11. Btdrnks says:
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    Was offered his eifert for my Corey Coleman. Been running Bennett out all year, along with Crabtree JMatthews, Crowder and Ty williams…RBs im set with David johnson, Lamar Miller, Jordan Howard Ingram, Dixon and Dion lewis…

    I’ve asked this question to a few folks and I still can’t decide…some say it’s a no brainer…others like colemans upside vs eiferts injury risk…others say my WRs are junk and to stream TE and not give up a solid WR.

    What do you guys think???

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Btdrnks: Personally, I’m with the no brainer, especially because of Tyrell Williams. Look at his playoff schedule weeks 14-16. Insane.

  12. Adam says:
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    Gotta play either Harris or Hightower this weekend, which one to roll with? .5 ppr

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Adam: Hightower

  13. Badonkagronk! says:
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    My opponent has Matt Ryan and I need to make up ground… kap or Dak the better start?

  14. Bobbay says:
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    Howdy mannn .5 ppr league need an emergency RB2 to start this week.

    I have Derrick Henry (he’s at SD) & Bibbs (he’s at OAK)

    Start any of those? Or drop let’s say Bibbs ? If I drop Bibbs I can add + start either :

    Alf Morris (@ Cleveland)

    Mike Davis (vs saints)

    Sankey (vs jax)

    Paul Perkins (vs Eagles)

    Buck Allen (vs Steelers)

    Don Jackson (vs colts)

    Thank you

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Bobbay: ‘Sup Bobbay!

      Believe it or not, I actually am liking Henry a bit this week, and he’s your go to for this lineup, although Perkins is a close second.

  15. Bluety says:
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    Wentz or Nick F?
    Need 3 rbs out of this group: McCoy/Gillislee, Gurly, Gore, C. West, and D.Henry?
    Need 1 wr out of this group; M.Thomas, C. Coleman,R. Cobb
    PPR after 4th rec. Thanks

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Bluety: The NYG secondary is one of the more underrated units in the league, and Foles has a good matchup at hand. Foles.

      • Zach

        Zach says:
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        @Zach: For the rest, West, Gore, and Gurley, and Michael Thomas.

  16. JohnRamboJr says:
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    Who do I drop for Dion Lewis…Crowder, Sneed or Quincy Enunwa. PPR league.

    Thanks in advance,
    JRJ

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @JohnRamboJr: I wouldn’t drop any of these guys for Lewis, but if you have to, then I would drop Crowder now that Reed is back.

  17. Johnc says:
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    Which lineup you like better:

    1. RB: Bell, J Hill
    WR: Green, Brown (gotta love the colors!)
    Flex: Edelman or Bernard

    2. RB: Bell, Gordon
    WR: Green, Edelman
    Flex: J Hill or Bernard

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Johnc: 1st.

  18. Butterfield says:
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    Carr or Taylor this week? Both tough matchups.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Butterfield: Agreed, both have tough matchups, but Carr should be fine.

  19. helo says:
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    derek carr or ryan tannehill this week?

    i don’t see how one has the option to bench forte with 6 teams on bye but i suppose.

    btw to add ryan tannehill i’d have to drop kadeem carey… my rbs are freeman, elliot, forte, kelley, morris, powell

    thanks

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @helo: Stick with Carr.

  20. FrankGrimes says:
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    Latavius Murray isn’t good vs anyone. He stinks.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @FrankGrimes: Hahaha you may be right.

    • I don't want to brag but i have irritable bowel syndrome says:
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      @FrankGrimes: obv the TD’s were all gifts of DEN’s pass interferences, but he still looked good running otherwise.

  21. rainer says:
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    hey zach. if cobb sits again, which one would you choose? janis vs ind, perkins vs phi, inman vs ten, green-beckham @ nyg?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @rainer: Pauly P! (Perkins)

  22. Bluety says:
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    need a def. Lions, Greenbay, Chargers, bills

  23. Jake snakebit says:
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    Jennings or Harris with Hyde out. Ppr

  24. William Trill Cauley-Stein says:
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    Zach! How are you amigo!? Mind helping me figure out who to start this week? C. Michael v Buffalo or D. Henry v SD? Thanks again!

Comments are closed.