This week I’ve been tapped to fill in for Seth and write the “Start ’em and Sit ’em” column. Those that have read my Stats Machine posts will know that I think projections are for the birds. I am more of a “by the numbers” kind of guy. I rely on statistics to make my points and fantasy sports decisions. I believe that making “gut” decisions is the recipe for failure, but maybe that’s because I’m gutless. Or was it heartless. I forget.
By no means do I profess to be an expert in this realm, so with the help of some number crunching, I have targeted the players that have good match-ups and those that do not and present them to you as my start ’em, sit ’em’s of the week…
START ‘EM
Philip Rivers, Chargers: The Jaguars defense has allowed a league high average of 306 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Rivers average is 259 yards per game. Is it safe to assume he puts up at least 259 yards? I know what they say about assuming, but in this case I think it’s safe. Jacksonville, along with the Eagles, lead the league in passing touchdowns allowed with 8 in 3 games. That’s 2.6 touchdowns per game. Rivers is averaging 2 per game. And let’s not forget about the 39.7 points per game opponents are scoring against the Jags. Philip Rivers threw 3 touchdown passes and led his team to a 30-21 win over the Seahawks. This one has big fantasy day written all over it. Don’t you make an ass out of me King Philip or it will be off with your head! (Guesstimation: 20.95 points)
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Kaepernick finds himself with a favorable matchup against the Eagles who find themselves near the bottom of the league in passing yards and points allowed. Coming in with a 1-2 record the 49ers still have something to prove and in a division with the Seahawks and 3-0 Cardinals, they cannot afford to fall too far off the pace. Look for Colin and the San Fran offense to get the job done this week at home against Philadelphia in a high scoring contest. I’m colin this one a winner. I’m almost embarrassed to have written that last line. (Guesstimation: 18.7 points)
Nick Foles, Eagles: The Eagles are currently the second highest scoring team with 33.7 points per game. As I’ve already mentioned, with an over/under of 50.5, I expect the Niners-Eagles game to be a high scoring event. While the 49ers are middle of the pack with regards to passing yards allowed per game (226 ypg), Foles currently leads the league with 326 yards per game. So I’d say let’s shoot for somewhere in the middle. On the year San Francisco has given up 7 passing touchdowns and Foles has thrown 6, making 2 touchdowns seem like a realistic expectation. Ain’t no Foles gold here, just some real 18K shizz. (Guesstimation: 18.75 points)
Matt Forte, Bears: Forte leads all running backs with 19 receptions and 24 targets. In PPR leagues that’s gold. That’s gold Jerry! Gold! On the ground he is only averaging 45 yards per game, but Green Bay is giving up a near league high of 156 yards per game. That bodes well for Forte owners. While Matt has yet to find the end zone on the ground, the Packers have let up a league high 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. That too bodes well for Forte owners. Against the weak Packers defense look for Forte to show everyone why he is one of the best in the game. (Guesstimation: 22.9 points)
Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts: What is it they say, “One man’s misfortune is another man’s gain”? Trent Richardson has not looked good this season resulting in Bradshaw’s rise in Indianapolis. Despite being on the lesser end of splitting carries, he has still managed to average 50 yards on the ground per game. While he doesn’t have a rushing touchdown yet, he has 3 in the air, averaging 5 targets, 4 receptions and a touchdown per game. The tides are changing. Ahmad has quickly become more and more involved in the offense and if the brass in Indy knows what’s good for them, that trend will continue. The Tennessee defense is giving up 134 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. So even splitting time with Richardson, there should be plenty of offense for Bradshaw owners to benefit. And maybe he finally gets that rushing TD. (Guesstimation: 20.6 points)
Julian Edelman, Patriots: Edelman has become Brady’s go to receiver averaging 9 targets per game and catching just over 7 of them. With twice as many receptions as the next Patriots pass catcher, look for Brady to continue throwing his way against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 223 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns per game. Edelman has proven himself a must-start and until he shows otherwise, he will remain a must-start. Edelmania is running wild! (Guesstimation: 21.3 points)
Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers: Kelvin Benjamin is a beast. He has 2 touchdowns so far, both coming on deep passes, and is averaging 84 yards receiving per game. In PPR leagues he has two games of over 20 points. While the Ravens have only given up 2 receiving touchdowns so far, they are giving up 264 yards in the air per game and they have allowed a league high of 20.7 yards per pass attempt on deep throws. Kelvin is a deep threat guy and Baltimore is the perfect team for him to line up against. It’s all about the Benjamins! (Guesstimation: 15.9 points)
Michael Crabtree, 49ers: The Eagles are surrendering 288 yards a game to opposing wideouts. Last year they gave up the most fantasy points to wide receivers and so far this year they have given up the third most. Despite a bad week 1, Crabtree is currently averaging 6.3 catches and 62 yards per game. In a game I’ve already said I expect to be high scoring, he seems like someone I’d like to have in my lineup. This Crabtree will be in full bloom. (Guesstimation: 15.3 points)
Keenan Allen, Chargers: Jacksonville has allowed the most receiving yards of any team this season at 1000 yards even. Allen is off to a slow start thanks to a groin injury and tough defensive opponents. What better way to break out than against the worst defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have had 8 receiving touchdowns scored on them. Could Keenan Allen find pay dirt and break the schnide? I think so and therefore I’m keen on Keenan this week. (Guesstimation: 15 points)
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: Buffalo has allowed 282 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game to opposing receivers. Coming of a 116-yard game against the Giants, DeAndre has the chance to have another nice game. With 3 consecutive double digit fantasy weeks in PPR formats, the numbers indicate a strong possibility for a 4th. (Guesstimation: 14.3 points)
Markus Wheaton, Steelers: Did you watch Tampa’s game last week? Their defense looked horrible. This spells good things for anyone on Pittsburg’s offense. The only question is whether they will rely more on Le’Veon Bell and the running game. Tampa is giving up 387 yards per game (262 in the air and 125 on the ground). That sounds like plenty of yards to go around. Better eat your Wheatons! (Guesstimation: 12 points)
Delanie Walker, Titans: Delanie has walked his way into the top tier of tight ends after the first 3 games of the season. On a team that many expected Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter to be the stars, Walker leads the team in targets (26), receptions (17), yards (233) and touchdowns (2). The Colts are the 5th worst defense against tight ends allowing 4.3 catches, 68 yards and a touchdown per game. As long as Locker is a go, I’d rank Walker Tennessee Titan a near must-start. (Guesstimation: 17.2 points)
Antonio Gates, Chargers: In case you haven’t caught onto the theme, I am going all in on the Chargers this week. Let’s face it, the Jaguars suck. And on top of sucking they are the worst team against tight ends. Or best team if you are a tight end. I’m not even going to present you with the numbers on this one. Start Gates. Game over. (Guesstimation: 21.45 points)
Larry Donnell, Giants: I am thinking he is good for 3 touchdowns this week and they will all come in the first half. (Guesstimation: 30.4 points)
SIT ‘EM
Alex Smith, Chiefs: With an 81.5 passer rating, Smith is ranked 25 amongst fellow quarterbacks. He’s already been sacked 11 times, second only to Jacksonville’s Chad Henne (16) and I wouldn’t expect him to have much time this week against New England. The Patriots defense has been downright stingy against quarterbacks allowing the fewest fantasy points and passing yards per game at 168 yards. (Guesstimation: 11.05 points)
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: I’m not sure how many of you actually planned to start Tannehill, but I am here to tell those few that were, not to. Oakland has the 3rd best pass defense in the league allowing only 183 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have not had great days against the Raiders so far this season. Although they have only faced Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady. But I’d put Tannehill right there with those guys. (Guesstimation: 12.8 points)
Cam Newton, Panthers: Cam goes up against a Ravens defense that is not far behind the Patriots for its ability to keep the quarterback’s fantasy points to a minimum so far this season. Through 2 games Newton has only rushed 6 times for 26 yards. It appears his rib injuries and surgically repaired ankles are keeping Carolina from allowing him to run. After a practice on Wednesday, Cam said he felt great, but didn’t deny the aches and pains of his injuries. (Guesstimation: 14.7)
Reggie Bush, Lions: Bush runs into the New York Jets and the number one run defense. The Jets are a running back’s worst nightmare allowing only 55 yards per game and haven’t let up a rushing touchdown yet. With Joique Bell in the mix who knows what kind of production Reggie has in him. Either way I am letting him pick splinters out of his ass this week. (Guesstimation: 10 points)
LeSean McCoy, Eagles: Now we all know that no one is actually going to bench LeSean McCoy. Heck even though I am recommending it, I don’t know if I would either, but that depends on my other options. This is mostly me waving the caution flag. The 49’ers defense is tough against the run and has only allowed 1 rushing touchdown this season to DeMarco Murray in week 1. While McCoy says he’s not concerned about his slow start, if I drafted him in the first round, I’d be concerned and annoyed. (Guesstimation: 13.3)
James Jones, Raiders: Jones has been a popular waiver wire pickup recently emerging as the go to receiver in Oakland. This week he goes up against the Dolphins tough secondary which is ranked 7th in the NFL and has given up only 1 touchdown to wide receivers. I’ll take my chances with someone else this week. (Guesstimation: 8 points)
Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, Colts: I’m lumping these guys together as they are both going up against a good defense in Tennessee which has surrendered just 1 touchdown to a receiver (Dez Bryant). The Titans are second in receiving yards permitted with 187 per game. (Guesstimation: 9 points each)
Eric Decker, Jets: A limited participant in practice this week with a nagging hamstring injury Decker goes up against the number 1 ranked defense with regards to total yards given up. I’ll wait until he is 100% and not playing the Lions. (Guesstimation: 9.25 points)
Travis Kelce, Chiefs: I don’t like the matchup against the Patriots who have yet to let a tight end score a touchdown. Next! (Guesstimation: 9 points)
Owen Daniels, Ravens: Now that Pitta is done for the season Daniels will be the primary tight end in Baltimore. After scoring 2 touchdowns in week 2, he all but disappeared in week 3 ending with 1 catch for 8 yards against a Cleveland defense which has not been very tough against receivers or tight ends. And this week he’ll face a much stiffer opponent in Carolina that has yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end. (Guesstimation: 10.6 points)
Guesstimations are based on 1 point PPR leagues.
Good luck…
