Fantasy Football Advice

Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there’s a lot of fantasy playoff leagues as well, and if you haven’t joined one yet, be sure to check out our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

Saturday, 4:30 PM

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

Despite Cincinnati’s stoutness against the run during the regular season I think Thomas Jones is a relatively solid play.  You know he’s good for 80 yards and if there’s any sort of touchdown opportunity for the Jets he’s the man, no doubt. So I’m giving him a little bit of a downgrade for the matchup but he is still the main man.  Shonn Greene continues to see more work and will get enough work to be of some use in a run heavy offense.

Jets: Jones +1, Greene -1

Although the Bengals weren’t really trying to win last week their offensive struggles concern me. Regardless of where he ends up signing in the offseason (I think he’ll stay in Cincy) Benson will almost certainly be overrated for next season. This playoffs might be the beginning of that.  I don’t like the matchup here against the tough Jets defense.

Bengals: Benson -3

Saturday, 8 PM

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Brian Westbrook has had 23 looks to Lesean McCoy’s 10 in the last 2 games.  Add in Leanord Weaver getting a goal line carry here and there and you have a difficult choice.  Westbrook doesn’t look the same, but he is clearly the number one back right now.  I can’t really enthusiastically recommend him and the others aren’t getting enough work.

Eagles: Westbrook -1, McCoy -2, Weaver -3

The Eagles defensive statistics don’t indicate how truly bad they’ve been against the run this season. I should know; I’m an Eagles fan. They are just undersized up front and too bent on playing the pass/running exotic blitzes. In the last 3 weeks Marion Barber has had 58 looks to Felix Jones’ 48.  Jones is healthy for now and is worth using, especially in return yardage leagues like Sporting News.  Barber is still getting most the goal line looks so is the safer choice, but against the Eagles both could get theirs. I am giving both an upgrade for the matchup because like I said the Eagles can’t stop the run.

Cowboys: Barber +2, Jones +2

Sunday, 1 PM

Baltimore @ New England

Ray Rice is too dynamic to keep down, but that’s what Belichick does; he focuses on taking the biggest threat out of the game.  Can he do it on Sunday?  Couldn’t tell you.  The Patriots defense is very middle of the road and their offense could struggle in the absence of Wes Welker. If they don’t get up early, you could see a lot of Rice and McGahee no matter how successful they are.

Ravens: Rice +1, McGahee 0

I wouldn’t be surprised if Bill Belichick found Christian Okoye and put him out there on Sunday. Fred Taylor’s back in the mix now but you can’t play him; I’d be surprised if he gets many touches. Maroney and Taylor both fumbled recently so Sammy Morris could be in line for a good chunk of carries, but nothing is a lock with BB.

Patriots:  Morris 0, Maroney -1, Taylor -2

Sunday, 4 PM

Green Bay @ Arizona

I really like Ryan Grant in this game. The Cardinals started the season tough against the run, but have been poor of late. Grant is the feature back and won’t lose too many touches to Brandon Jackson. It’s a warm weather contest which should bode well for both team’s offenses.

Packers: Grant +4

Tim Hightower’s role in the offense has diminished a lot lately.  The Packers defense is really solid but the Cardinals passing game should force them to play back and open up some holes in the running game for Arizona.  I look for Wells to get a lot of work unless the Packers get out to a quick lead.

Cardinals: Wells +1, Hightower -2

There may be a few of you doing a playoff draft or a salary cap league so I decided to put together a rankings/draft sheet.  It’s a tricky thing, playoff leagues.  You have to account for the chance that the team your player is on could lose quickly, no matter how good you think the team is.  I am ranking them with some thought to who might win, but more toward how I think they’ll play.

Don’t forget to join us in our two playoff leagues: you can join our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

Here we have QB’s and RB’s.  Look for the WR’s, TE’s, K’s and D’s soon.

Quarterbacks:

There are a ton of good QB’s in the playoffs this year.  I wonder what you need more to be a successful NFL team, a good QB or good RB?  Rhetorical question.  With all the talent here much depends on how many games you will get out of them.  For my money Aaron Rodgers has the best shot of playing the most games, but that is a guess.  If you get him and he loses in the wildcard round you better have a backup! It might be best to wait on a QB since they are so deep and grab a starting RB you think will contribute the longest?

1. Peyton Manning: Whatever the Colts’ “psyche” is, I could care less. Peyton is a machine and he runs a machine and unless the other team disrupts that machine’s mechanics they won’t lose.  Their state of mind when playing won’t change.  Of course you won’t be able to use him in the first round!

2. Philip Rivers: Is Rivers better than Drew Brees? Can’t say for sure, but I like Rivers’ team more and the Saints will have tough competition to get to the championship game.

3. Aaron Rodgers: ARodg ended up the #1 fantasy QB for 2009 and his team has been playing lights out. Rodgers looks like he has at least a slim chance of playing in every playoff game.  If you have faith in the Packers you can’t do much better.

4. Drew Brees: The Saints have lost three in a row and don’t play in the first round.  He has a ton of upside, but if he doesn’t get into the championship game he was a wasted pick.  Like every player you have to do a little Carnac work, if you like the Saints chance of going to Miami.  Grab him.

5. Brett Favre: If the Vikings hadn’t gotten home field I would have him lower, but I think they righted the ship enough and The Favres like the domes.

6. Tony Romo: He has a ton of risk attached to him.  The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1896.  But they have been looking too good to blindly say they will choke.  Romo would be the steal of the playoffs if he could lead his team to Miami.

7. Donovan McNabb: Not too long ago I had the Eagles going to the bowl, but oh how fickle fate can be according to Beth Orton and any team that doesn’t win the Super Bowl.  They could be sitting at how eating bean dip and Fritos, but they got spanked in Dallas and now have to go back there.  I think they have a good chance to win this game, but not if they play anywhere close to last weekends performance.

8. Tom Brady: He dropped pretty far in my rankings based solely on Wes Welker’s injury.  That could be a bit reactionary of me, but Welker leaves a pretty big hole in the offense.  If Edelman can come up big they could do something, but that is a lot to ask.

9. Kurt Warner: Could be the absolute steal of the playoffs (I know I said that about Romo already, sue me!), but I think his first game is too risky to put all my eggs in Warner’s Power Chair basket.

10. Joe Flacco: Flacco is a great backup choice if you are going with a QB with a first round bye.  He gets a poor Patriots secondary in the wildcard round and you could get lucky and the Ravens could go deep in the playoffs.

11. Mark Sanchez: I think the Jets will beat the Bengals so that is the only reason Sanchez is ahead of Palmer, that, and the Jets pass defense.

12. Carson Palmer: He’s starting.  That’s his biggest upside.

13. Matt Leinart: Warner is old.

14. Kevin Kolb: If you have a big roster he has a lot of upside if McNabb goes down.

15. Billy Volek: Same as above.

Running Backs:

There are very few stud running backs in the playoffs.  Would you rather have Joseph Addai or Ray Rice?  Well, next year’s draft will probably be a different answer than what you’ll get here.  The Ravens could beat the Pats, but it will be tough and then they’d get a very good team on the road.  The playoffs bring out strange game plans and sometimes backup RB’s get stats you wouldn’t expect.  It’s a very good idea to horde as many backup/RBBC type backs as you can.

1. Adrian Peterson: Elite back on a good team.  Bit of a no brainer.  Will they go all the way? I have no idea, but they have a decent chance.

2. Joseph Addai: Donald Brown doesn’t look like he’s going to take too much away from Addai and the guy knows how to get into the endzone. Not a sexy pick, but a reliable, William H. Macy kinda pick.

3. L.T.: Another TD machine on a good to great team. He’ll be rested for his goal line vulturing.

4. Ryan Grant: Again, the Packers are my, cross my fingers and give them a shot team.  I am not good at calling games.  If I was I’d bet on them and be able to keep Sallie Mae from stalking me, bitch, but I’m putting my fantasy bucks on them, with a lot of hedging.

5. Ray Rice: He’s unbelievable and if I thought the Ravens had a shot to go all the way he’d be in the top 2.  Yes, McGahee exploded on the Raiders, but Rice is still the guy in Baltimore.

6. Thomas Jones: His chances of playing more than 2 games are very slim, but I do think he’ll get those 2 games and will get his carries. And now that I don’t overlook him he’ll go for 10 yards and a loss.

7. Marion Barber: This is how shallow the running backs are this year.  I don’t love Marion Barber, well, he does have a nice smile, but the Cowboys have about as good a chance as most of the NFC teams and Barber is the goal line back.

8. Beanie Wells: I wish they didn’t start with the Packers, but like I said, anything can happen. If they move on they know what they need to do and Beanie will be a big part of that.

9. Cedric Benson: I don’t have much faith in the Bengals winning, and the Jets defense has been stout, so he has a shot at a razztastic game and also being done.

10. Pierre Thomas: This is a risky pick with his rib injury, but he will have time to rest it and like I said, there aren’t many starting RB’s worth their salt.  Not that PT is worth his salt, and it’s not like I have any idea what that means, but he’s on a good team and he should be the starter.

11. Brian Westbrook: He’s the starter again.  Not sure if that was the best idea, but it’s what is happening.

12. Felix Jones: He’s a home run kind of back and you have to get fairly lucky to win in playoff leagues.  A couple long runs from him can win a league for you.

13. Tim Hightower: He still sometimes vultures touchdowns from Beanie and even though his touches have gone down he is still getting work.

14. Darren Sproles: L.T. has kept Sproles from getting much work this season, but he is still a threat to go all the way at anytime and if you are in a league like Sporting News where return yardage counts he will give you some automatic points.

15. Sammy Morris: Who is the starter for New England? I’m giving Morris the nod, but my opinion, sadly, is irrelevant.

16. Donald Brown 17. Reggie Bush 18.Willis McGahee 19. Kevin Faulk 20. Shonn Greene 21. Chester Taylor 22. LeSean McCoy 23. Laurence Maroney 24. Mike Bell 25. Brandon Jackson 26. Leonard Weaver 27. Fred Taylor 28. Tashard Choice

Week 16 had a lot of big scorers come from odd names: Brandon Jackson, Jabar Gaffney, Darren Sproles, and not Curtis Painter. Hopefully you sat your Colts except for Austin Collie and started only players who scored lots of points!

I know not everybody’s league is over, including the RCL leagues, so we’ll be going into as much detail about injuries and matchups for week 17 as we have for the whole season.

Our fantasy contest will be decided tonight and it looks like Guy and Asdrubal Bastardo will be vying for the prize. If Purple Jesus can score 23 or more points Mr. Bastardo can win at the wire.  Good luck to you both!

Here are my thoughts on Sunday’s games:

Jonathan Stewart and the Carolina Panthers punched the Giants in the mouth and then teabagged them after they were knocked out on the ground. If Stewart didn’t have D Willy to contend with he would be a top 10 back.  Williams and Stewart are only the sixth running back duo to go for a thousand yards a piece in the same year.  I’m guessing John Fox is kicking himself for sticking with Delhomme for so long, or at least he should be.

Peyton Manning: He kept his helmet on and sang “Put me in coach, I’m ready to play!” while Caldwell ignored him and put in Curtis Painter to prove that our old timey surnames should determine our careers.

Jerome Harrison: He carried the ball 39 times which set a Browns’ record and had a touchdown and 148 yards. He will have some competition from James Davis next year, but he is every down material.  We’ll have to see how things play out in Cleveland, but he will be high in a lot of rankings this off season. Including ours.

Brandon Jackson: Jebus! What happened up in Green Bay? The Seahawks are making a run for worst team in the NFL. As I was needing Aaron Rodgers to throw for a few touchdowns instead he was handing off to Grant and Jackson. Oh fantasy football Gods, why are you so fickle?

Brandon Jacobs: He has gone from a bull to a steer (they have their junk snipped).  Ahmad Bradshaw is the better of the two and should be the one you want next year.

Laurence Maroney: This is why you don’t own Patriot running backs.  Maroney fumbles on the goal line and he’s done. Sammy Morris became the fantasy back for the rest of the game.  Another situation to just stay away from unless Belichick takes a leave of absence.

Mike Sims-Walker: He was only targeted three times.  Hrm?  He wasn’t on the injury report and the Jags needed to throw, so it doesn’t make much sense.  Maybe today was just a bad day for hyphenated fantasy players.

Wes Welker: He was hurt early in the season and missed 2 games and has 122 receptions, breaking his franchise record.  I think that’s an average of 36.5 receptions a game.  You may want to check my math.  The guy is a ppr monster.

Cedric Benson: His injury slowed down a huge fantasy season, but he helped a lot of teams this year and his 140 yards against the Chiefs wasn’t too bade. He should be good to go once again next season.  Bernard Scott will push him, but he should keep the starting job.  All this next year talk is making me sad.

Jamaal Charles: He had a tough matchup against a good Bengals’ defense and still totaled 124 yards. We were confident he could do it against weaker teams, but this game makes it easier to see him as an every week starter next season.  As my mom used to say, “he’s a keeper!”  She always loved my brother more!  Next week he should run over Denver.

Steve Smith: Eli Manning was horrid just like the rest of his team, but Smith was one of the few bright spots for the Giants. He will be high on many waiver wire pickups of the year lists.

Arian Foster: One week too late! Foster had 97 yards and a touchdown the week after being benched in the first quarter after fumbling. I don’t want to get into how stupid Kubiak is.  When you argue with fools, well, you know.  The Texans running backs are a mess going into the off season.

Justin Forsett: Once again he looked better than Julius Jones.  It’s too late for him this year, but he should pass Jones as the #1 back next year.  Now, if  Matt Hasselbeck can suck less.

Matt Hasselbeck: Yes, he’s thrown 4 interceptions, but that was against the Packers in the frozen tundra and what not; cut him some slack!  Wait, what’s that? He also threw 4 last week at home? Against the Bucs!? Oh, what’s up with that?

Ryan Grant: I haven’t been a Ryan Grant believer this season, but he went and showed me! His 97 yards and 2 touchdowns could have been much better if Brandon Jackson hadn’t vultured 3 TD’s!  I’m never going to think he is an elite back, but he gets the job done.  I’ll still be wary of him next year, but you can call me an idiot if you want.

Robert Meachem: Another waiver wire success this year.  He got into the end zone once again. He gets a TD every 4.75 catches. How he gets three quarters of a catch is a mystery, but Meachem is a TD magician.

Roddy White: He came on strong for the fantasy championship game with 139 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Falcons will be back next year and White and Ryan will be had at good value.

Cadillac Williams: He ran for 148 total yards against a pitiful Saints run defense.  He still can play, but there is no clear winner in the Bucs backfield.  Josh Freeman has a chance to be a decent QB and could help Ward or Williams to some decent numbers next year, but both are such injury risks it will be impossible to recommend either.

Thomas Jones: He continues to put up numbers even with Shonn Greene cutting into his carries. The Jets offensive line should get a lot of credit for how well the 31 year old Jones has played this year, but Jones continues to stay healthy.  Greene had a nice game as well and it will be interesting to see how long Jones holds him off.

Quinton Ganther: He’s not very good.  If he even makes a starting roster next year I would be surprised.

Pierre Thomas: It finally looked like he might have a decent game, well, for him, he did, but he was injured and didn’t play in the second half. Sean Payton, Bill Belichick and Gary Kubiak are fantasy RB coolers.

Worth a Waiver Claim

Jerome Harrison – So I guess he’s the guy, not Chris Jennings going forward. Unless you have one of the top few spots you probably won’t be able to acquire him but either way it’s worth a shot. In PPR he could be a poor man’s Ray Rice going forward. I would take a whole team full of poor man’s Ray Rice’s.

Robert Meachem – There’s been too many good games in a row to doubt him any more. Unfortunately he could’ve been had as a free agent almost all season and now you’ve got to use a claim on him. His matchups down the stretch and the targets he’s currently receiving warrant it.

Antonio Bryant – Remarkably he’s STILL on waivers in a lot of leagues. Had a big year last year and despite the slow start has begun to really turn it on. Good matchups upcoming also. Throw down a claim on him.

Steve Breaston – Another player that I doubt is on waivers but if he is you have to love his potential down the stretch.

Sammy Morris – Bill Belichick is back to his old tricks again. Maroney has been extremely effective since becoming the primary ball carrier (other than the occasional fumble) but he was almost non-existent in the second half of the game this Sunday. Morris got a lot of touches and it looks like he might be on his way to becoming the primary back in New England once again.

Justin Forsett – A ton of people dropped him because Julius Jones was returning from injury. Not surprisingly Jones was totally ineffective on Sunday but given the majority of the touches. Forsett scored a touchdown and made the best of what he was given a chance to do. He deserves to be the starter there and I will be surprised if Mora doesn’t realize that. In Keeper Leagues in particular he’s a great acquisition.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Willie Parker – Rashard Mendenhall had a “slight” injury but the team claims he’ll be good to go for Thursday’s game. Even so we’re looking at a short week here so there’s less time for him to heal up. If for some reason he can’t play, or if he does an aggravates his injury Willie Parker will be ready to step in as the feature back.

Lex Hilliard – Still hasn’t had the type of production I’d anticipated being the second fiddle in a run happy scheme but that wouldn’t discourage me from stashing him. Ricky Williams does have a lot of miles on him so the odds of injury are high.

Maurice Morris – Still one of my favorite stashes in case Kevin Smith goes down. This offense is legit with Stafford and Johnson in the lineup.

Chris Jennings – He didn’t get nearly the number of opportunities I’d anticipated and Jerome Harrison’s cemented his role as the primary back in Cleveland. Jennings is still a great stash on your bench in case the situation changes.

Darren McFadden – Justin Fargas is still getting most of the touches in Oakland but McFadden’s talent could shine through in the final few weeks. Brad Gradkowski’s got the offense looking respectable again so it might be safe to own Raider’s now.

Quinton Ganther – I had this no name on here last week as a deep stash but the surprising number of touches he got on Sunday warrants him moving in to this category. Rock Cartwright just hasn’t done as much with his opportunity as I assumed. Who knows, Ganther might sneak his way in as the top dog by season’s end.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Kenneth Darby – Steven Jackson suffered from back spasms again last week but played and was productive. Any time a running back is battling injuries the value of his backup instantly goes up. You never know…

Kahlil Bell – It’s obvious that carrying the entire workload at running back is taking a toll on Forte and his production. I doubt Lovie Smith will smarten up and start giving Bell a decent number of touches. He is an explosive player though and certainly worth hanging on to in case something changes.

Tyrell Sutton – DeAngelo Williams was a surprise inactive on Sunday. One would assume that he’ll be back in action shortly but you never know. Sutton’s a great guy to own if that happens.

Rashad Jennings – The Jaguars don’t really split the touches so should something happen to MJD expect Jennings to be the work horse. Given his lack of touches this season he should be able to handle it.

Ryan Moats – Slaton should be back this week but in deeper leagues you could do worse than stash Moats. Coach Kubiak benched Slaton earlier in the season because he was fumbling so there’s a chance he could lose his job.

Brandon Jackson – If Ryan Grant gets injured Jackson will be the man in Green Bay, particularly in passing situations. So in PPR he’s obviously more valuable.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

Did you see “The Wizard” with Fred Savage? It’s this cheesy early 90’s movie with a climactic Nintendo showdown. Mario Brothers III was unveiled at the end. It was like, the future or something. I remember being so pumped about that game. In fact if you weren’t pumped about Mario Brothers III then I hate your face.

As I discussed last week “Sleeper Math” is changing with the season and will now focus on the best players to roster (mostly RB’s). It’s not easy to unearth diamonds in the rough this time of year but I’m up for the challenge. Waive goodbye to your backup Tight Ends, Quarterbacks, and marginal Team Defenses and say hello to no name running backs who might just win you a title (and be a ridiculously good keeper for next season).

Worth a Waiver Claim

Fred Jackson – Probably not available but get him if you can. Marshawn Lynch left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. Not sure what that means going forward other than Jackson’s value just shot up.

Rock Cartwright – No, I’m not talking about return yard leagues here people. Portis and Betts are ruled out for next week. There’s an outside chance that Cartwright could wind up starting for the rest of the season. In the meantime he’s going to get all the touches out of the backfield because he’s all there is.

Bernard Scott – He shouldn’t be on waivers but a lot of you out there have boneheads in your league. Clearly if he’s still available you should claim him. It’s unclear whether Benson will play this week against Cleveland.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clear)

Danny Ware – Jacobs got injured on Sunday. It’s tough to say what the extent of it will be. Regardless Ware is an excellent stash right now. He could  be a big surprise to close out the season.

Brandon Gibson – Jones will be taking an extensive look at him in his Targets article tomorrow. He is getting the ball thrown A TON to him.

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith had a good game but Morris is still worth stashing because he’s talented and Smith’s been injured this season.

Chris Jennings – He had just under 10 points in PPR this week. It’s miraculous that Jamal Lewis is still out there. If he gets hurt Jennings could find his way in to your starting lineup.

Lex Hilliard – I thought he’d get more touches in his first outing but I’m sure he’ll get more involved in the offense. Miami’s offense can easily support two productive running backs (as they’ve shown all season).

Mohamed Massoquoi – He’s probably not available in your league. If he is on Waivers I wouldn’t put a claim on him, personally. I do think he could be useful toward the end of the season but you shouldn’t need to slide him in there as a starter.

Darren MacFadden – I’m not that excited about him but if he’s a free agent I’d throw him on your bench and wait to see if he does anything.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Tyrell Sutton – He is drawing a lot of praise in Carolina. Unfortunately that backfield is really packed right now. If either Williams or Stewart goes down he could put up useful digits though- keep your eyes open.

Rashad Jennings – Not going to be a factor unless Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. If that happens, however, you’ll be glad you own Rashad Jennings.

Ryan Moats – It’s evident now that Slaton’s won his starting job back. Moats has once again become a stash. The good part is he showed that he can be productive when given an opportunity.

Jerious Norwood – I guess we’re just going to wait forever for him to get healthy. With Turner still out (more than likely) you could do worse than stashing Norwood just in case.

Brandon Jackson – Just when you think he’s irrelevant again… Jackson had 6 catches for 65 yards on Sunday (he’s a running back, not a receiver). If Ryan Grant goes down to injury he could be valuable. For obvious reasons he’s a better stash in PPR leagues.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew