Fantasy Football Advice

Matthew Stafford just wrote a story he’ll be able to tell his grand kids.  Of course he won’t say it was against Cleveland, but still, he became the youngest quarterback to ever throw for 5 touchdowns in a game and he did it with a bad wing!  I don’t see Stafford now becoming a fantasy god with the schedule he has, but he’s going to keep Megatron relevant and hopefully make Detroit a contender at some point.

Mark Sanchez: Another rookie quarterback took the field on Sunday, but instead of giving his fans hope for a wonderful future he gave each one of them metaphorical Dirty Sanchez.

Bernard Scott: He ended up with a decent game in Oakland, helped by a 61 yard run.  I’d hold onto him as long as you can in case Benson reinjures himself.  His schedule is too good to lose him because you got nervous that you needed a third tight end to round out your team. (more…)

Maurice Jones-Drew had another huge game, but fell down at the one instead of running it in. No, he wasn’t drunk, at least I don’t think.  The Jags were down at the time so it seems like a questionable call, but hey, I don’t care about the real football, I needed those points!  MJD apologized to fantasy players and to himself, since he owns himself in his league, but this kind of fantasy play is uncalled for from MoJo.

Ronnie Brown: He had a TD and over 100 total yards before he went down with an ankle injury.  He thinks it isn’t that bad, but we have to wait for the physicians to do their thing.  He has a short turn around before playing Thursday night so even if he isn’t hurt badly I doubt he’ll play then.  Burn some incense and sacrifice a Harry Carson rookie card to the Fantasy Gods so he only misses the one game. If you have Ricky Williams, burn something else.

Michael Turner: The Burner had his ankle torched.  We have to wait on more word, but he also looks like he could at least be out a week or two.  Jason Snelling will be a good pickup if Turner is out for an extended period.

Justin Forsett: He totaled 149 yards and a touchdown with Julius Jones breaking a rib early in the game.  He is a must pickup even if Jones comes back in a couple weeks.  It’s hard not to see Forsett getting a lot more touches from here on out.  Sadly he plays Minnesota next week, but still.  If you are in a deep league you should also give Louis Rankin a shot.  He looked stout, quick, and fast on the touches he had.

Brian Westbrook: He suffered his second concussion this season in Sunday’s game.  This wasn’t just some twist of fate that he had this happen again. If we see him back on the field this season I will be surprised.  Lesean McCoy will take over for Westbrook, but who knows if the Eagles will remember how to even run the ball.

Darius Heyward-Bay: He dropped, juggled, and caused an interception as the Raiders were moving down for a possible winning score.  He no longer is just worthless, he is actively losing games in a worthless manner.

Beanie Wells: The guy is just too good to keep down for long.  Tim Hightower works well in the AZ system, but they are going to have to change the system because Wells needs to be in there.  He had 2 touchdowns and 117 total yards.  Buy high!

Jason Avant: 156 yards! Pick him up! Pick him up! Wait, on second thought, don’t.

Jamaal Charles: Finally! I talked to Haley right before the game and implored him to give the ball to Charles.  He said, “Suck it Doc!” I was a little upset, but I knew my man Charles would just go ahead and take control and give Haley no choice! Well, I hoped, and he did.

Cedric Benson: He left the game with a hip flexor, but out of all the running back injuries this weekend his seems to be the least worrisome.  I could see grabbing Bernard Scott, but I wouldn’t waste a waiver claim on him unless news gets worse.

Sidney Rice: The guy has sold his soul to Lord Favre and could be the last piece that will bring about Favrageddon!

Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Mike Bell: This three-headed turd is not making me happy.  Reggie had a nice game when it looked like PT Loser was the main man coming into a cake walk against the Rams.  I still think Thomas is the man for the rest of the year, but you can’t discount Bush as an erratic impact player.

Ladell Betts: He was supposed to be hurt and share the rock with Rock, but instead he ran for 126 yards and a TD against what’s supposed to be a good defense.  He’s gone from your free agent pools, but he made a strong case to be started even in tough matchups.

Calvin Johnson: He had a workman like performance for an elite wide receiver.  It was nice to see.  Eight receptions for 84 yards is a step in the right direction.  I think you’ll be glad you own him down the stretch.

Terrell Owens: He had a decent game, but was going all TO on everything.  He wants out of Buffalo before the blizzards hit.

Marques Colston: Another down game.  He will turn it around.  Grab him from the sweaty palmed Colston owner.

Donnie Avery: 2 touchdowns and 67 yards ain’t too shabby. He’s on a bad team, but he is by far the Rams’ best receiver and as long as he stays healthy he’ll get end zone looks. I would only use him in three wide receiver leagues though.

Bill Belichick: Peyton Manning’s bitch.

The trade deadline isn’t that far away! We should all be throwing out trades right now like nobody’s business, gearing up our teams for a run at the playoffs or more. There are a lot of great trade targets, particularly at receiver sitting out there.

Let’s remind ourselves of the formula:

Sleeper Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Tier I

Calvin Johnson 19 (10+9) – Everything that I have seen has indicated that this injury isn’t nagging. His performance this season hasn’t been dazzling and he just missed a game. Most owners would love to ship him out and cut their losses. I am going to take a chance on him in every league if possible.

Anquan Boldin 18 (9+9) – Before you take any speculative shots on him wait and make sure that this ankle injury isn’t severe. Even if he’s only halfway healthy I love Boldin to turn his season around. Much of his lack of production stems from simply not getting in the end zone; his targets have remained relatively high. His asking price should be extremely low right now.

Greg Jennings 17 (9+8) – Another elite WR who has yet to step up and deliver on his potential. Donald Driver has been getting a lot more love from Rodgers than him and you can bet Jennings will voice his displeasure with the lack of targets.

Brandon Jacobs 16 (8+8) – As dynamic as the Giants offense has been I can’t believe how rarely Jacobs has been able to get in the end zone. Regular readers know I’ve been dissing him and jonesing on Bradshaw all year. But I feel like the time has come where it might be advantageous to take Jacobs off the hands of frustrated owners, particularly in non-PPR formats.

Frank Gore 16 (8+8) – Injured running backs make me really nervous. The upside to Gore is that you know the 49’ers are going to feed him the rock and if he’s healthy he will be extremely productive. Since he’s coming back next week his owner might be somewhat reluctant to sell him as low as they would have previously.

Tier II

Jerricho Cotchery 15 (8+7) – If you read “Gameday Companion” on Sunday you probably noticed that my prediction about defenses’ response to Braylon Edwards was accurate. And like I said I love what this will do for Jerricho Cotchery. Once he comes back, if he’s healthy, he will put up true #1 receiver numbers (not elite #1, think: DeSean Jackson).

Marshawn Lynch 15 (8+7) – If you watch NFL Network you’ve seen Michael Irvin refer to Cedric Benson as “running for money!” I love that bit, it’s hilarious. Marshawn Lynch is running like Forest Gump away from the cool kids on bicycles right now. I wish I could give him a higher “opportunity rating” but with how untalented/injured that Bills line is right now I just can’t do that.

Devery Henderson 15 (8+7) – You have to love any receiver in that Saints offense. As the #2 guy in New Orleans he’s going to get plenty of opportunities to catch the football from here on out. I think he makes a great #3 receiver/flex option for you week in and week out.

Sidney Rice 15 (8+7) – He just had a big game so he’s on people’s radars now. Percy Harvin might be dinged up also. None of us paid enough attention to Sidney Rice this season and it’s time to grab him before everyone catches on.

Michael Jenkins 15 (8+7) – Roddy White should continue to garner more and more attention. Watching Michael Jenkins and his role in that offense it just seems like his production should be higher than it is. Going forward I really like what he might be able to do relative to acquisition cost.

Tier III

Jamaal Charles 14 (8+6) – Larry Johnson needs to just go ahead and get injured already; he has no business being this healthy. I am going to keep touting Jamaal Charles until he gets his chance and rips it up. Then I’ll say “I told you so.”

Davone Bess 14 (7+7) – Chad Henne might actually be a serviceable quarterback. Davone Bess has looked really good so far and I love him for PPR leagues. Pick him up without reservations in 12 team.

Justin Forsett 14 (8+6) – He is starting to get more and more touches in that offense and Julius Jones continues to look more and more mediocre. Whether it’s injury or superior potential don’t be surprised if Forsett gets playing time as the season progresses. I love him as a potential breakout candidate.

Ladell Betts 13 (7+6) – Clinton Portis continues to stay healthy and run like a man possessed. If he goes down I like what Betts will do and he’s barely owned even in deeper leagues.

Garrett Wolfe 13 (7+6) – How bad was Matt Forte last night? How disappointing has his season been so far? Garrett Wolfe has gotten more and more touches in that offense. Forte could get injured or you could see the Bears go to a more democratic carry splitting situation.

Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – “Pocket Hercules” got 33 carries this Sunday. Are you kidding me? I love MJD but I’m really concerned that this excessive workload is going to catch up to him.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

So I was sitting there in front of my Mac, in my favorite coffee shop in Chicago, (Noble Tree check it out), tweeting away about how many live versions of Machine Gun by Hendrix I own and if Brandon Inge should wear a Smashing Pumpkins’ ZERO shirt under his All Star jersey, when My Fantasy Players asked me to join a PPR Mock Draft over at Fantasy Football Calculator.  Now, if you made it through that sentence I’m proud of you and you probably already know that PPR means points per reception, not Pabst Poo Ribbon Mock Draft Beer.

So, in PPR leagues, you want to target those scrappy backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield.  Last year Westbrook would be your #1 PPR back, but this year there is a wide variety,  MJD, Forte, SJax, Slaton, etc . . .  Plus you have your ultimate PPR wide receiver in the scrappiest of Scrappy Doos, Wes Welker.  Did I get any of those guys in my draft?  Of course not.  Let my mock draft be a warning to all of you.  Do not draft unprepared.  I figured my brain was prepared enough for a mock draft, but my brain was not, my brain was like that egg in that 80’s PSA, my brain was all confused like when Picard found himself on that shuttle from another time, well, you get the picture.  Here are my mock draft results.  Mock me.  I can take it.

1. DeAngelo Williams #10: Going with upside here.  Williams, like I’ve said, is a risk, but he was the only one left that could get some receptions while having a big year on the ground. Boom or Bust.

2. Ronnie Brown #15: Probably reached here, but I’m a big proponent of Brown this year.  See what Brown can do for you. He will deliver! Anyway, he is 2 years removed from his surgery, still young, can catch the ball out of the backfield and is on an improved team.

3. Roy Williams #34: Well, every decent wide receiver was gone.  I like Williams.  He never seemed to catch on after being traded mid-season last year, but with TO gone from Big D it’s Roys time to shine or at least sparkle a little.  He will get the opportunity and I think he can succeed. Of course I would rather have at least one top tier receiver and probably should have gone that way with my 2nd pick.

4. Aaron Rodgers #39: This was a mistake.  I love Rodgers this year, but I could have gotten a decent QB MUCH later in the draft!  Rodgers was only behind Brees last year in total fantasy points so I’d be happy to have him on my team, but just wait on a QB, really.

5. Anthony Gonzalez #58: No Marvin, no problem.  Gonzalez will have a productive season.

6. Hines Ward #63: Maybe some unintentional homerism here.  Ward is solid.  I needed some solidity. Damn you Cheesy Bacon Potato Burrito!

7. Ray Rice #82:  I don’t love the Ravens this year, but I think Rice will end up being the go to back.

8. Greg Olsen #87: Olsen is being sold as a top 5 TE with the addition of Cutler and I’m buying.

9. Laveranues Coles #106: I believe this pick has the biggest chance of being a bust.  Coles should fit nicely into Houshmanzadeh’s role, but will he?   I say it’s 50/50, but I was weak at WR and need some reserves.

10. Matt Cassel #111: I don’t think the Chiefs will win over 5 games, but I think that means they will be chucking the ball often.  Cassel fits the bill as a #2 QB.

11. Corell Buckhalter #130: Hmm, dunno.  I like him in a ppr league if he can somehow become the starter for Denver. Of course there may never actually be a starter in Denver.

12. New England Defense #135:  There was a big run on D’s.  I got caught up and trampled.

13. Rob Bironas #154: Another dumb pick.  No need to draft a kicker. I hate kickers.  You should too.

14. Ladell Betts #159: Portis is old.

15. Devery Henderson #178: Probably droppable for the first flavor of the week.  In a great system, but the 16th read.

Here are the results for the entire draft.  You may need to sign up with Fantasy Football Calculator to see the results. I highly recommend that you do.  No, not because I’m so egotistical that I think you’ll be riveted by the results of a mock draft I participated in, but because FFC is now the go to place for ADP.  It filters out computer picks and only averages out the last three days of drafting.  It also gives you charts on how each player is trending in drafts.  I think it does even more than that if you fork over some cash, but I’m poor and if you have any extra cash you should give it to me.