Fantasy Football Advice

As you can tell, we have quarterbacks lower (or higher, which is it?) than other sites.  This is an age old tradition of the perts that we are upholding while others seem to be going away from. I’ve seen some perts say that since this has become a quarterback’s league they are worth more and you need to grab them earlier.  Hrmm?  With ten 4,000 yard passers last season there were plenty to go around in a 12 team, single QB league.  I’m not saying you should wait until Daunte Culpepper is the only QB left on the board, but you can wait.  With 2-3 RB’s and 3-4 WR’s needed in most leagues, grabbing a Rodgers/Manning/Brees in the first/second round is a waste.  Much will depend on your individual leagues and next season’s ADP, but 9 out of the top 10 point leaders last season were QB’s and that won’t change this year.  If you grab that ninth placed QB while getting a couple top 10 RB’s you will be sitting pretty and that’ll be true even if you ugly, u-g-l-y, you ain’t got no alibi, you ugly, eh hey, you ugly. Check out our top 20 behind this word.

21. Drew Brees: You probably won’t see Brees go this late, but I wouldn’t take him any earlier for the reasons above.  But he is probably a little more predictable than even Rodgers who is above him.  Much of Rodgers’ lead in fantasy points comes from his rushing TD’s which can vary, even though he keeps scoring them, the bastard.  The Saints offense can function with a bunch of no-names as long as Brees is at the helm.  Projection: 4500/36/14 — 30/2

22. Roddy White: Roddy finished as the 7th best fantasy wide receiver last season even though he was hurting toward the end.  We’ve got him as the 6th receiver this year, but I think he could move up a smidge.  Matt Ryan was injured and had a bit of a sophomore slump.  He should rebound well this year and give White plenty of opportunities. Projection: 90/1225/10

23: Vincent Jackson: I probably would have put VJax ahead of White and Moss if it wasn’t for his probable suspension for DUI’s.  It looks like it may just be one or two games which wouldn’t put a huge dent in his numbers.  And he should have plenty of numbers with the Chargers not having much of a running game and Rivers near the top of the awesome heap. Projection: 75/1250/9

24: Peyton Manning: He’s as solid as they get, but I doubt I’ll own him.  He will anchor your team, but so will a lot of QB’s you can grab later. Projection: 4300/33/13 — 15/1

25: Calvin Johnson: Last season Megatron had a down year due to injuries and inconsistent quarterbacking.  He is of course a bounce back candidate, but I doubt his ADP will drop too much because he is a magical creature from the land of Narnia.  I do think he got a little frustrated last season and didn’t play as well as he could so I’m not 100% sold he can return to top 5 form with a young Stafford, but I do believe he will return to top 10 form without much trouble. Projection: 75/1200/9

26: Brandon Marshall: He will probably be on another team soon which could move him up or down a little, but he is too good to drop no matter what team he is playing for.  He is a ppr beast, but much depends on the offense he ends up on.  Yeah, I know, I’ve said that already. Projection: 100/1175/9

27: Pierre Thomas: Reggie Bush and Mike Bell caused P.T. a lot of grief last season and there is no reason to think they won’t do the same again.  If Thomas stays healthy and takes some incriminating photos of Sean Payton, he may get the bulk of the goal line touches and move into second round value, but I just don’t trust Payton enough. Projection: 1050/7 — 40/325/2

28: Lesean McCoy: As things are, Shady is the main man in Philadelphia right now.  I have a feeling that the Eagles will look for a veteran like Tom Jones, but if that doesn’t happen he could be a steal, especially in ppr leagues. Projection: 1000/6 — 50/450/2

29. Fred Jackson: Finding a starting running back that you can depend on is tough this season and all the seasons before, but who cares about those.  Jackson held the starting position over Marshawn Lynch after he returned from his suspension and ran with it.  There has been talk of Lynch being traded, but it’s starting to look less and less likely.  If Jackson remains the man he is a great pick here, but we’ll have to keep an eye on Lynch; he may pull a gun on Fast Freddie, and talk about a dude who is u-g-l-y and Lynch sure didn’t have no alibi. Projection: 1100/6 — 45/375/1

30. Matt Schaub: Schaub was very good to all those fantasy players who had high expectations for him last season.  He went from injury risk to leading the NFL in passing yards.  I’m not going to factor in injury risk with quarterbacks.  They get hit and lose consciousness, them’s the breaks.  If he plays all 16 games, he will easily be worth a 3rd round pick.

Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary.  As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types.  A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson 25 — You know what he can do.

2. Adrian Peterson 25 — Purple Jesus can still raise the dead (he just has trouble holding onto the ball).

3. Maurice Jones Drew 25 — He’s got a nose for the goal line.

4. Ray Rice 23 — I’m not too worried about McGahee and these are Dynasty rankings we are talking bout.

Tier 2

5. Jamaal Charles 23 — Probably deserves Tier 1 status, but needs to perform for a whole year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall 23 — Young and the #1 on a good team.

7. Shonn Greene 25 — With Jones gone he could rush Rex Ryan’s weight in a single game.

8. Frank Gore 27 — Steady and versatile, but aging and injury prone.

9. Beanie Wells 22 — Hightower will be eating his dust.

10. Steven Jackson 27 — Will put up good numbers, but his team is an albatross around his neck.

Tier 3

11. Jonathan Stewart 23 — His age and ability trump his RBBC lot in life.

12. Michael Turner 28 — He can put up TD’s with the best of them.

13. Knowshon Moreno 23 — Didn’t overwhelm in his rookie season, but his situation is ripe for success.

14. DeAngelo Williams 27 –  He’s too good to knock down far even though he’s older than his RBBC pal.

Tier 4

15. Ryan Grant 27 — On a great offense.  Steady production.

16. Donald Brown 23 — RBBC for now, but youth always wins out.

17. Cedric Benson 27 — Bengals have become run first.

18. Pierre Thomas 25 — Just hope Payton gives him some goal line work.

19. Matt Forte 24 — Chester Taylor hurts him, but thankfully Taylor will be 31 this season.

20. Felix Jones 23 — Worried about his health, but see him getting the most numbers in cow town.

Tier 5

21. LeSean McCoy 22 — He’ll move up the ranks if the Eagles don’t grab a veteran.

22. Joseph Addai 27 — Has some productive committee years left.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw 24 — Jacobs and he were both injured, but he outplayed him.

24. Ronnie Brown 28 — He could slip further depending on how his injury looks, but he is an elite talent.

25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season.  If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.

Tier 6

26. Brandon Jacobs 28 — I’m not a fan, but if he’s healthy he can get in the endzone.

27. Marshawn Lynch 24 — His age and past production make him hard to pass on.

28. Jerome Harrison 27 — I wanted to put him higher, but he’ll probably be in a committee.

29. Fred Jackson 29 — There’s a good chance he’ll get the bulk of the carries this season, but he is old (which makes me ancient).

Tier 7

30. Reggie Bush 25 — Reggie Bush type.

31. Darren Sproles 27 — Reggie Bush type, but older.

32. Darren McFadden 23 — Lots of talent, but is on a bad team and might be a Reggie Bush type.

33. Kevin Smith 23 — His injuries and inability to run well are worrisome, but he has time for redemption.

34. Marion Barber 27 — Most Barbarians have short life spans.

Tier 8

35. Michael Bush 26 — Could end up being the starter on a bad team.

36. Thomas Jones 32 — Doesn’t get hurt so should have a year or two left.  Depends on the team he winds up on.

37. Laurence Maroney 25 — Had a great stretch last season.  Still young.

38. Tashard Choice 25 — Barber is declining.  Jones is injury prone.

39. Chester Taylor 31 — Role is undefined now in Chicago, but he could do some things in a Martz offense.

40. Steve Slaton 24 — Had a great rookie season.  Has skills.  Benched. Is hurt. Flier.

Tier 9

41. Leon Washington 28 — Looks like he’ll be ready to go all season in a run first offense.

42. Tim Hightower 24 — Still young, but will be a Beanie back-up.

43. LenDale White 25 — A bit risky, but anywhere other than behind CJ will help him.

44. Willis McGahee 28 — Staying in Baltimore will hurt his value.

45. Ricky Williams 33 — Should get you one more productive year.

46. Carnell Williams 28 — Lasted all last season.  Probably won’t this season.

47. Arian Foster 24 — He showed some awesomeness, but the Texans are looking at RB’s in the draft.

Tier 10

48. James Davis 24 — Young and will compete with Jerome Harrison for the starting job.

49. Bernard Scott 26 — If Benson goes down he would easily take up the slack.

50. Lex Hilliard 26 — Ricky is old. Ronnie is oldish/injuryish.

51. Jerious Norwood 27 — Turner has had a lot of carries.  Norwood should be healthy.

52. Larry Johnson 30 — I don’t like him, but he could start for the Native Americans.

53. LaDainian Tomlinson 31 — Should hook up with a new team.  A lot depends on that team.

54. Glen Coffee 23 — Gore is injury prone.

55. Rashad Jennings 25 — Just has MJD blocking him.

56. Derrick Ward 30 — Will be in the mix, but the recipe is bland.

57. Maurice Morris 30 — Might, might, be a starter if the Lions are dumb.

58. Correl Buckhalter 31 — Should still be the #2 in the mountains, but old.

Tier 11

59. Tyrell Sutton 23 — A good change of pace back that could flourish with an opportunity.

60. Mike Goodson 23 — See above.

61. Mike Bell 27 — Should find a team and his value will depend on that team

62. Chris Jennings 24 — Slim chance to get into the mix after Harrison and Davis.

63. Jason Snelling 26 — Norwood was hurt much of last season so Snelly got the work.

64. Larod Stephens-Howling 23 — Has the ability to be a Reggie Bush type.

65. Javon Ringer 23 — Would probably pick up the reps if CJ goes down as long as White is gone.

66. Brian Westbrook 31 — If he hooks up with the right team and looks healthy I could see moving him up a little, but I’m not taking him.

updated 3/13/10

There is no off season here at Razzball (except for that 48 hour bender right after the Super Bowl). We’ve already got ourselves a slow mock draft happening to kick off the beginning of the 2010-2011 season.  Yes, there will be a lot of changes as the so-called off season moves players around and brings in new, younger ones, but doing mocks is a great way to see how others value players and helps solidify where you value players.  Here are my co-conspirator mockaletes.

1. Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com

2. Melissa Jacobs - TheFootballGirl.com

3. Melissa Greenhawt – GoGameFace.com

4. Chet Gresham – This Guy

5. Jim Day - FFWhiz.com

6. Charlie Tourtillotte — Tourinct

7. Mike Clay – FantasyDC.com

8. Steve Adler - FantasyDaddy.com

9. Paul M. Bourdett – BaseHeads.com

10. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com

11. Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com

12. Knox Bardeen – Fanhouse.com

We’re still mocking each other so I’ll keep you updated on our progress.  My picks are in bold.  Here are the first three rounds for your amusement:

Round One

1. Maurice Jones Drew

2. Chris Johnson

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Michael Turner

6. Andre Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Matt Forte

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Ryan Grant

– The first round had most of the usual suspects in it, but MJD at #1 was a little surprising. He’s in my 1st tier and I can see him being a #1 pick, but I’m a little worried about Garrard getting him to the goal line as much as he needs. Matt defends his pick here.

– I felt good about getting Ray Rice 4th.  If I had to choose a draft position it would be one of the top 4 or at the turn at 11/12.  I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top 4 picks and if you get 4th you don’t have to decide!

– Drew went with Forte at #10 which is within the realm of where his ADP will be, but I will probably pass on him unless it’s a ppr league.  Martz likes to use his running backs in the passing game, a lot.

– Aaron Rodgers will be in the running for the #1 quarterback off the board, but after last year’s ten 4,ooo yard passers, I’ll be waiting on a quarterback.

– Since I’m pro Chris Johnson, getting him at #2 is good value, but no picks really stood out to me as steals.  I have Jamaal Charles ranked higher than he went, but that second tier is pretty fluid with Gore, A.J., SJax and Charles.

Round Two

13. Drew Brees

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Peyton Manning

16. Rashard Mendenhall

17. Calvin Johnson

18. Reggie Wayne

19. Pierre Thomas

20. DeAngelo Williams

21. Chris Wells

22. Philip Rivers

23. Tom Brady

24. Miles Austin

– The second round saw a big run on quarterbacks.  Once again I just can’t grab a QB with the first 2 picks.  It’s against my code of fake football ethics.  Running backs or wide receivers for me please.  My options at RB were dwindling fast, but I had a difficult time choosing between Beanie, Moreno and Benson.  But for my money, Beanie has the highest upside of the 3.  Whisenhunt won’t put as much of the game in Leinart’s hands, especially with a back as talented as Wells showing his worth toward the end of last season.

– I am a little worried about DeAngelo Williams after Jon Stewart went crazy after D. Willy went down toward the end of the season.  I could even see Stewart out playing him this year, but any way you look at it he isn’t guaranteed the bulk of the carries.

– The same could be true for Pierre Thomas, but I am a little more concerned about him staying healthy than being the primary back.

– I think one of the best picks of round 2 was by Matt who grabbed Miles Austin with the last pick.  I thought about snagging him, but just liked Wells too much.  Austin could easily be a top 3 wide receiver with a full season as the #1 WR in Dallas. Witten will be his only real rival for looks unless Jones gets an itchy finger and tries for a Boldin/Marshall trade.

Round Three

25. Randy Moss

26. Brandon Marshall

27. Ronnie Brown

28. Vincent Jackson

29. Greg Jennings

30. Roddy White

31. Matt Schaub

32. Tony Romo

33. DeSean Jackson

34. Steve Slaton

35. Knowshon Moreno

36. Marion Barber

– It’s interesting to see how far Randy Moss fell.  Even in a not great season he was a fantasy stud with his ability to get into the endzone, but he is also starting to show his age whileWelker could be gone for a big chunk of time which will get Moss a lot of attention if Edelman doesn’t go nuts.  I like Moss here, but I’m still trying to decide if I like him earlier as well.

– I felt good about Vincent Jackson in the third.  The Chargers will once again have to rely on the passing game and VJax should continue to improve.

– Brandon Marshall’s value is still up in the air since we aren’t sure where he’ll end up, but if he can have a big year with Orton, he has a shot of having a big year anywhere.

– I think both Slaton and Barber went too early as they don’t have the starting job wrapped up for next season.  I won’t own a Texan’s running back this season unless they trade for Purple Jesus or his like.  I also won’t own a Cowboy running back unless Felix Jones really slips.  Jones could get the most touches next season, but his injury history is worrisome.  I’ll pass.

– My favorite pick of round 3 is probably Knowshon Moreno.  The Broncos are a bit of a question mark with Josh McDaniels taking multiple power trips, but Moreno is their back and Buckhalter, though awesome last year, isn’t getting any younger and should continue to pop up on the injury report.  And Moreno will have a full off season and preseason compared to his holdout last year.

Who is that, who is that, who is that who is going to outscore the New Orleans Saints?  Nobody, that is who or whom or dat; I dunno.  In between commercials and The CSI Players, Drew Brees picked apart the Indianapolis Colts secondary while Peyton Manning did the same except for one errant throw that went the other way for a Saints touchdown.  And that was the game. Good night, or morning, or grief.

I was fairly confident Manning would gut it out, and when he didn’t my whole world view crumbled and I spiraled into a depression of Steven Wright proportions. Well, not really.  I was surprised though.  All the talk about Manning possibly being the greatest ever will have to be put on hold.  This game doesn’t mean he can’t work his way back into that conversation, but what this game really did was shoot Drew Brees right into the middle of that great quarterback debate.  His numbers are right up there with Kurt Warner’s and after winning a Super Bowl he is assured Hall of Fame talk unless he takes the Tiger Woods/Mark McGwire path to Grandma’s house (which is also the name of a brothel/HGH bar.

This game didn’t make any huge splashes fantasy-wise, but it’s hard to believe both teams won’t be scoring points next season.  Yes, the year after a team wins, loses, or chokes away a Super Bowl they have trouble not sucking, but Manning and Brees will keep their teams competitive at the very least.  Reggie Bush will be discussed a lot this off season.  He is getting paid way too much for the numbers he puts up.  He helps the team, but not enough when that money could go elsewhere. He could land with a team that might use him more, but that would be a mistake since he’s made of peanut brittle.  Pierre Thomas is the best back in New Orleans and will continue to get the bulk of the carries and if he can stay relatively healthy, will be the guy to own.  Of course Sean Payton could use Ron Dayne on the goal line.  Joseph Addai really showed something to his detractors this year and it will be hard for Donald Brown to supplant him, but if Brown stays healthy there is no way he doesn’t dip into Addai’s numbers enough to hurt his fantasy value.  Anthony Gonzalez can’t be happy with what developed at wide receiver while he was hurting.  Pierre Garcon really developed and has earned the right to be the #2 receiver.  And with Gonzalez out of the game for so long I don’t see him taking that job back very quickly.  Brees and Manning of course are atop the fantasy heap, but I doubt I’ll own either one once again next season.  Top QB’s are around later in the draft and I’ll take a RB or three please.

The game was good, but not classic.  We might be getting a little too used to games like the Patriots/Giants and Cardinals/Steelers.  Remember when Super Bowls had the suspense of a Ashton Kutcher movie plot line?  Yes, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman hook up in the end!

So this brings us to a close of the 2009-2010 NFL season, which means we are at the beginning of the 2010-2011 season!! Tonight we are hosting our first mock draft to kick off the breaking down and over-thinking of the season to come.  So stay tuned and remember, the NFL season is never over, it just gets slightly less violent.

Here are my rankings for the Super Bowl peppered with some “remember me hits.”  Let’s get it, as they say, on!

Quarterbacks:

1. Peyton Manning: In these here playoffs the Saints have forced at least one quarterback into retirement and another possibly into hiding/retirement/24/7 news cycle.  They will be coming after Peyton Manning with the force of Zeus’ own thunder! But then he’ll sidestep and throw a touchdown.  We saw the Jets’ #1 defense get to Manning early in the AFC Championship game and then the Manning Machine finally got warmed up and chewed them up and spat them out while throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.  That’s the most passing yards given up by the Jets all year.  And the Saints don’t have as good a pass defense as the Jets. In the Saints’ last 6 meaningful games (not including week 17 when they rested starters) they have given up 303.5 passing yards per game.  Greg Williams wants his players to put some “remember me hits” on Peyton early.  Rex Ryan probably had the same game plan.

2. Drew Brees: He is probably the best all around fantasy quarterback going against the best all around real quarterback.  The Colts are vulnerable against the pass with their young defensive backs and unless Freeney and Mathis can pressure Brees consistently, he will be able to move the ball through the air.  The Saints did try to balance the run with the pass in the championship game. They had 23 rushes to 31 passes even though they only averaged 3 yards a carry.  I believe they’ll try a similar ratio against the Colts, so Brees’ numbers could be dampened just a little.

Running Backs:

1. Joseph Addai: He ran strong against the Jets’ tough run defense totaling 81 yards on 16 carries.  The Colts won’t all of the sudden try to run the ball down the Saints throats, but Addai could see similar to better numbers against a poor rushing defense, and I see him adding a touchdown.  Addai has been a little dinged up and the 2 weeks of rest should help him quite a bit.

2. Pierre Thomas: He says his ribs aren’t bothering him and he did have a decent game against a good Vikings rush defense.  The Colts have had good game plans against elite running backs, but PT won’t be their main focus and could sneak in a couple big runs.

3. Reggie Bush: Bush is the ultimate boom or bust (sounds a little like his girlfriend).  I almost put him above PT because he is always a threat to take the ball all the way.  But in the biggest game in the whole wide world of sports I think Payton trusts Thomas with the ball more.  Bush does elevate his game and could go off, but I’m playing it safe with PT and his 15-20 touches.

4. Donald Brown: He was clearly backing up Addai last week so it looks like he’s passed Mike Hart as he should have.  Coming off his injury I’ve seen a couple very nice runs from him, but for the most part he’s not doing enough to take many looks away from Addai and I doubt things will change much in the Super Bowl.

5. Mike Bell/Lynell Hamilton: Both of these guys have about the same chance of vulturing a touchdown from Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: Garcon and Collie benefited from Wayne getting Revis-ed last week, but Revis didn’t get invited to the Super Bowl.  The Saints did slow Sidney Rice, but he still had 4 receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  The Saints are going to have their hands full with Garcon, Collie and Clark, so giving Wayne extra attention might be tough.

2. Marques Colston: Against the Vikings Drew Brees completed passes to 8 different players and only had a total of 17 completions.  Not one receiver had a great game and that has really been the way it has gone all season.  Colston is the Saints best receiver so he gets the #2 nod.

3. Pierre Garcon: He showed he could be the #1 guy without any downgrade in production.  Reggie Wayne is still the man and unless the Saints spend a lot of resources on shutting him down we should see Garcon’s numbers dip from last week’s game.

4.Devery Henderson: He’s leading the Saints in receiving in the playoffs and has scored as many touchdowns in the playoffs as he did all season with two.  You can’t discount a player who is hot in the playoffs.  Of course he could be shut out, but trying to pick a Saints receiver is tough no matter what you do, might as well go with the hot hand.

5. Robert Meachem: He’s been hurting, but seems to be healthy now and he would probably be my pick to pull another Braylon Edwards on the Colts defense.  The only problem with that is the Saints aren’t a run first team like the Jets, so it will be tougher to beat the Colts deep.

6. Austin Collie: Collie should see the biggest drop off from the Revis game, but you cannot count him out for a touchdown.  Manning will throw to the open guy. So get open!

7. Lance Moore: Just another Saints wide receiver to divvy up the receptions.  What ever happened to a #1 and #2 receiver that got a predetermined number of catches?  That never happens? Hmm, maybe I was watching darts.

Tight Ends:

1. Dallas Clark: This is a bit of a no-brainer based on his competition, but the Saints have been tough against tight ends.  They’ve only given up one TD to a TE and the was the future Hall of Famer Fred Davis. Clark is too good to shut out.

2. Dave Thomas: If I were Sean Payton I would play Thomas over Shockey based on hair alone, but also because Shockey is hurting.  I really wouldn’t want either Saints’ tight end, but the founder of Wendys isn’t hurting.

3. Jeremy Shockey: He says he will risk an even worse injury than he already has to play in the Super Bowl.  Well, that’s very William Wallace of you Jeremy, but I think they’ll go with the healthier guy.

Kickers:

1. Garrett Hartley: The Colts can interpretive dance the cliche of “bend and don’t break” and it is a beautiful display that will go off-broadway after the Super Bowl.  Hartley will have some chances to kick.

2. Matt Stover: I see the Colts converting their drives into touchdowns more often than the Saints.

Defense/Special Teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: I like the Colts to win this game, but with Roby and Bush returning kicks and punts and the Saints loving the turnover they have a little more upside.

2. Indianapolis Colts: This should be a high scoring game.  The Colts might be the safer defense since I see them having more points than that other team.