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Good news folks, Razzball has renewed my contract for a third season! While I’d love to say that I am to Razzball what Game of Thrones is to HBO, or The Walking Dead is to AMC, it simply would not be true. I’m more like Silicon Valley and Better Call Saul. But hey, that’s something right? Speaking of The Walking Dead, is it too early to start the “who does Negan kill” conversation? Just let it be Glen and let’s be done with it. Ok, back to me. As excited as I’m sure you all are to the prospect of me spending another year spewing nonsense intermingled with football advice, I’m twice as excited to be back. However, I’d like to make a minor request. Good or bad, I’d appreciate you leaving me a comment after reading my posts. If after reading something I’ve written you instantly wish you had the previous six minutes back, then please say so. If taking a dump is more enjoyable than listening to my advice, then tell me about your dump. Got it? Good.

Even though it was a full year ago, it feels like just yesterday that we collected all eight pieces of the Triforce, defeated Gannon and his minions, and saved Princess Zelda from certain peril. Since then a full season of fantasy football and baseball has passed, and during that time Gannon’s underlings have recaptured Princess Zelda as part of their plan to resurrect the ashes of their evil leader. Wait, WHAT???

Last year, in The Legend of the Bid Button, I introduced my strategy for approaching fantasy football auctions. I absolutely urge you to go back and read (or re-read) that post as I do not want to rewrite it today. For those of you that adamantly insist on not doing so, I will try and summarize as briefly as possible. Set a budget for each position on your roster. Use these values as soft limits. That means do not be afraid to bid a little more for the right player. But if you do, be sure to adjust your budget to account for the extra spending. When targeting players to bid on, compare players based on their “points per dollar” (PPD) value. This value is determined by dividing a player’s projected fantasy points by their estimated average cost. This will give us the number of points that player will give you for each dollar you spend on them if you purchase them at their estimated average value.

Here is a simple example. Adrian Peterson is projected to score 244 points and has an average cost of $58. That’s an average of 4.24 points per dollar. Mark Ingram, on the other hand, is projected to score 239 points, just 5 less than Peterson. However, Ingram’s estimated cost is only $37 (6.53 PPD). Why not draft Ingram for $37 and save yourself $21 that you can use to get yourself a shiny new wide receiver?

Here is my starting budget: QB=$10, RB1=$50, RB2=$30, WR1=$30, WR2=$25, Flex=$30, TE=$10, K=$1, DST=$1, Bench=$13 (7 players)

This post is based on a one-point PPR league.

Quarterbacks

Player FPTS Cost PPD
Cam Newton 347.67 33 10.53
Russell Wilson 329.74 18.7 17.63
Aaron Rodgers 321.63 27.5 11.69
Tom Brady 241.19 12.9 18.69
Andrew Luck 302.97 16.2 18.70
Drew Brees 294.15 14 21.01
Blake Bortles 282.38 7 40.34
Ben Roethlisberger 281.64 12.5 22.53
Carson Palmer 276.53 9.1 30.38
Tyrod Taylor 274.45 2.7 101.65
Eli Manning 271.36 7.2 37.68
Philip Rivers 270.09 6 45.01
Matthew Stafford 265.94 3 88.64
Kirk Cousins 265.36 3.2 82.92
Ryan Fitzpatrick 262.90 2.7 97.37
Andy Dalton 262.09 3.4 77.08

Cam Newton is the consensus top quarterback in everyones rankings, including mine. I project Newton to score more points than any other quarterback, but I still have no intention of winning him on auction day. Let’s see why? Newton will cost about $33. If I go after Russell Wilson I will save about $14 and it will only cost me approximately 18 points. Personally I’m targeting both Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. Even though Brady projects to 241 points, I still have him as my fourth best QB because those points are based on only 12 games. If I can grab Brady for $13 and pair him with a cheap $2 backup like Tyrod Taylor, I’ll be all set.

However, the QB that really intrigues me based on PPD is Blake Bortles. For just $7 I can get 282 points. That’s quite a return on my investment, leaving me with an extra $9 or so to bid on other players. And don’t kid yourself, $9 is a lot in an auction. When it’s over, you’ll look back at all the players you missed out on by a few dollars and only then will you realize how important that $9 was. I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable with Bortles as my QB, but I wanted to put the option on the table.


Running Backs

Player FPTS Cost PPD
David Johnson 277.13 49.2 5.63
Todd Gurley 261.62 55.3 4.73
Devonta Freeman 252.46 45.3 5.57
Le’Veon Bell 251.59 47 5.35
Jamaal Charles 250.99 37.2 6.75
Lamar Miller 247.68 43.3 5.72
Adrian Peterson 244.25 57.6 4.24
Mark Ingram 239.01 36.6 6.53
Ezekiel Elliott 234.28 55.4 4.23
LeSean McCoy 226.17 33.4 6.77
Matt Forte 211.07 20 10.55
Eddie Lacy 209.71 36.7 5.71
Doug Martin 209.26 37.8 5.54
C.J. Anderson 206.49 22.7 9.10
Latavius Murray 200.43 15.3 13.10
Danny Woodhead 198.49 4.6 43.15
Thomas Rawls 192.66 28.1 6.86
Carlos Hyde 191.74 22.4 8.56
Duke Johnson 188.57 4.6 40.99
Giovani Bernard 188.31 3.9 48.29
Jeremy Langford 187.89 9.9 18.98
DeMarco Murray 186.63 13.9 13.43
Ryan Mathews 177.87 9.6 18.53
Matt Jones 172.99 6.5 26.61
Jonathan Stewart 172.38 23.6 7.30
Jeremy Hill 170.42 15.7 10.86
Melvin Gordon 170.35 7.2 23.66
Ameer Abdullah 166.55 3.5 47.59
T.J. Yeldon 166.32 3.4 48.92
Charles Sims 164.20 1.4 117.29
Frank Gore 163.75 5.6 29.24
Theo Riddick 163.54 1.3 125.80
Arian Foster 163.07 8.2 19.89
Rashad Jennings 160.89 4.1 39.24
Dion Lewis 148.15 2 74.08
Shane Vereen 147.17 1.1 133.79
Justin Forsett 146.99 2.4 61.25
Bilal Powell 140.72 1.4 100.52
Darren Sproles 140.15 1.2 116.79
LeGarrette Blount 137.22 2.3 59.66
Isaiah Crowell 137.02 1.3 105.40
Chris Ivory 133.77 2.9 46.13
James Starks 126.75 1.2 105.62
DeAngelo Williams 123.82 5 24.76
Jay Ajayi 122.55 1.7 72.09
Derrick Henry 112.89 4.2 26.88
Jerick McKinnon 110.68 1.4 79.06
Javorius Allen 110.27 1 110.27
DeAndre Washington 106.55 1.6 66.59
Chris Thompson 106.27 1 106.27
Tevin Coleman 106.00 1.4 75.71
James White 105.32 1.6 65.82

Here’s an important point to keep in mind. Expensive studs are never going to have an attractive PPD value. But that does not mean you should avoid them. That would be a bad plan of attack. One of the reasons we use PPD is so that we can save a few dollars here and there so we have extra dollars to spend on a stud. Studs, barring injury, are your best source of consistent points. We can, however, use PPD to help us determine which stud we should target. Todd Gurley is projected to score 10 more points than Devonta Freeman, but he also costs an additional $10. I think I’ve got to go with Freeman here.

Matt Forte is projected to score 211 points and comes with a $20 price tag. Both Eddie Lacy and Doug Martin are projected to score 209 points yet they have an average cost of about $37 each. Are they really worth $17 more than Forte?

Here’s another. Latavius Murray at $15 for 200 points (13.10 PPD) or Danny Woodhead at $5 for 198 (39.6 PPD)? This is your brain. This is your brain on PPD.

Wide Receivers

Player FPTS Cost PPD
Antonio Brown 364.79 63 5.79
Julio Jones 336.50 58.3 5.77
Odell Beckham Jr. 319.73 58.1 5.50
DeAndre Hopkins 302.30 50.5 5.99
Keenan Allen 268.90 25.1 10.71
A.J. Green 266.71 48 5.56
Brandon Marshall 266.55 36.6 7.28
Jordy Nelson 264.44 38.3 6.90
Allen Robinson 264.35 40.7 6.49
Dez Bryant 263.79 47.4 5.57
Alshon Jeffery 260.03 33.3 7.81
Brandin Cooks 253.63 28 9.06
Demaryius Thomas 249.06 24.7 10.08
Mike Evans 247.40 31.8 7.78
Amari Cooper 247.28 28.9 8.56
Jarvis Landry 247.13 17.4 14.20
Sammy Watkins 244.34 30 8.14
T.Y. Hilton 242.72 21.7 11.19
Randall Cobb 234.74 15.8 14.86
Julian Edelman 233.99 19.8 11.82
Golden Tate 231.29 11.3 20.47
Jeremy Maclin 228.62 14.2 16.10
Eric Decker 226.67 12.3 18.43
Larry Fitzgerald 222.54 8.2 27.14
Doug Baldwin 221.65 16 13.85
Kelvin Benjamin 218.19 15.5 14.08
Jordan Matthews 215.15 4.9 43.91
Emmanuel Sanders 213.90 8.6 24.87
Donte Moncrief 209.68 8.8 23.83
Michael Floyd 203.31 6.9 29.47
Michael Crabtree 198.51 3.5 56.72
Allen Hurns 193.24 4.3 44.94
John Brown 192.68 5.4 35.68
DeVante Parker 191.67 4.8 39.93
DeSean Jackson 191.61 4.5 42.58
Tyler Lockett 189.89 3.4 55.85
Marvin Jones 188.40 4 47.10
Willie Snead 180.85 1.6 113.03
Stefon Diggs 178.91 2.6 68.81
Torrey Smith 177.24 1.8 98.47
Kevin White 171.76 3.1 55.41
Tavon Austin 165.44 1.6 103.40
Vincent Jackson 164.75 1.5 109.83
Sterling Shepard 164.47 3 54.82
Corey Coleman 162.41 1.6 101.51
Travis Benjamin 160.88 1.4 114.92
Markus Wheaton 159.74 1.3 122.87
Steve Smith 153.50 1.3 118.07
Josh Gordon 152.81 5.2 29.39
Mohamed Sanu 152.74 1.5 101.82
Kamar Aiken 148.49 1.2 123.74
Pierre Garcon 147.46 1.4 105.33
Rishard Matthews 145.29 1.4 103.78
Mike Wallace 142.52 1.6 89.08
Michael Thomas 142.23 1.6 88.89
Devin Funchess 138.85 1.8 77.14
Phillip Dorsett 137.23 1.2 114.35
Terrance Williams 137.19 1 137.19
Laquon Treadwell 131.32 2.2 59.69
Jermaine Kearse 130.35 1 130.35
Will Fuller 126.99 1.9 66.83
Tyler Boyd 125.52 2 62.76
Sammie Coates 125.08 1.2 104.23
Kendall Wright 123.55 1 123.55
Kenny Britt 121.95 1 121.95
Robert Woods 121.65 1 121.65
Anquan Boldin 116.30 1 116.30
Jamison Crowder 115.58 1 115.58
Nelson Agholor 114.60 1 114.60
Ted Ginn Jr. 112.30 1.7 66.06
Chris Hogan 107.03 1.1 97.30

With all of your savings at QB and RB, you should have enough dollars to get Antonio Brown. But if you get outbid on Brown because someone in your league was willing to spend $80 on him, make sure you get one of Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr or DeAndre Hopkins. You’ll thank yourself later. These are the studs to which I was referring earlier.

By now you should be a pro at spotting PPD values. Anyone stick out in the top ten wide receivers? How about Keenan Allen. If I can get him for under $30 I am taking him every time.

Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green are both looking at potential 266 point seasons. Marshall costs about $11 less. I’ll take Marshall.

I’m not quite sure how anyone could take Sammy Watkins over Jarvis Landry or T.Y. Hilton. Or how about Emmanuel Sanders over Jordan Matthews?

Both of Randall Cobb (14.86 PPD) and Golden Tate (20.47 PPD) appear to be excellent value picks. And if you’re not afraid of Larry Fitzgerald (27.14 PPD), his value could be through the roof.

Tight Ends

Player FPTS Cost PPD
Rob Gronkowski 245.44 49.1 5.00
Jordan Reed 212.16 25.7 8.26
Greg Olsen 211.21 17.9 11.80
Delanie Walker 195.15 8.4 23.23
Coby Fleener 187.00 5.3 35.28
Travis Kelce 185.90 7 26.56
Gary Barnidge 170.36 3.3 51.62
Antonio Gates 168.77 2.1 80.37
Zach Ertz 168.64 2.4 70.27
Jason Witten 161.37 2.6 62.07
Tyler Eifert 160.88 3.2 50.27
Julius Thomas 157.89 1.9 83.10
Jimmy Graham 152.64 2.5 61.06
Martellus Bennett 149.74 2 74.87
Dwayne Allen 146.54 1.8 81.41
Zach Miller 144.20 1.2 120.16
Charles Clay 143.74 1.5 95.83
Eric Ebron 136.28 1.2 113.57
Ladarius Green 123.35 1 123.35
Kyle Rudolph 122.64 1 122.64
Clive Walford 114.78 1 114.78
Jacob Tamme 110.83 1 110.83
Austin Seferian-Jenkins 107.16 1 107.16
Jared Cook 106.47 2.2 48.40
Vance McDonald 104.92 1 104.92

In snake drafts I can see you drafting Rob Gronkowski, but in auctions, there is no way I can justify spending $50 on a tight end. No freaking way. I’ll take Coby Fleener for $6 and call it a day. Heck, how about the ageless Antonio Gates for two bucks!

An auction can change at a moments notice. One click of the bid button can have a rippling effect on the rest of your auction. The best thing you can do is to be prepared. Know who you are targeting and how much you are willing to spend on each of them. Know who you plan to avoid. Nominate these players when it’s your turn and let your league mates lower their remaining budgets bidding on them. However, don’t be a fool. If you can get a player you really weren’t targeting at a deep discount, take the player. I’m not a fan of  width=”200″ and his $47 price tag, but if I can get him at $35, I’ll take him. Dez is not going to go for $35, but hopefully you catch my drift.

You can download the spreadsheet here. If you enter the number “1” (no quotes) in the “drafted” column that row will be highlighted in green to represent a player you have drafted. Entering any other value highlight the row in red to indicate a player that is no longer available.

Good luck. Wisdom, power and courage!

 

 

  1. Old Forester says:
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    My auction league drafts tomorrow. Perfect timing for an article like this. 10 teams, we keep up to two players ($2 inflation cost each year), and this is year three of the league. I’m going in with Brown at $37 and Gronk at $20 (grabbed Brown the year of his breakout, and Gronk was starting the season hurt, to explain the deep discounted prices). How greedy should I get going for a stud RB and another stud WR? Available RB’s are D. Johnson, Gurley, AP, Charles. Hopkins is the only “stud” you listed that is available.

    • malamoney says:
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      @Old Forester: Keep in mind that this post is based on a 12-team league. Considering the discount you got on Brown and Gronk, I’d spend up to $50 on Hopkins, but since you already have Brown, you might be better served spending a combined $60 on two receivers in the tier 2 range. I’d be willing to spend market price on any of the RBs that are available. Is this a PPR league?

      • Old Forester says:
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        @malamoney:.
        Thanks for the reply. League is half ppr.

  2. Nightpandas says:
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    For my third keeper would you go with

    Big Ben 12
    Ryan Matthews 12
    Gary Barnidge 5

    12 team .5ppr$200 budget. My first two keepers are Ingram $8 and Hurns $2

    • malamoney says:
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      @Nightpandas: I am leaning Big Ben since you’d be keeping him at market value and at $12 his PPD is attractive. But if you’re the type of player that likes to load up on RB, then I would understand going with Mathews…

  3. David says:
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    Good to see posts on auction leagues. I typically have been approaching auctions the same way except for the PPD tool which might have been helpful. I recently had my auction. I’m in a 10-team keeper PPR league. It’s a 2 QB league and they get 6 pts per TD + .5 pt per completion. My auction went as follows:

    Starters:
    QB1 Cam Newton $12 (KEEPER)
    QB2 Ben Roethlisberger $10 (KEEPER)
    RB1 Ezekial Elliott $41 (#1)
    RB2 Jeremy Langford $1 (KEEPER)
    WR1 Julio Jones $53 (KEEPER)
    WR2 Demaryius Thomas $34 (#2)
    WR3 Amari Cooper $55 (#3)
    TE1 Zack Ertz $5 (#4)
    Flex1 Kelvin Benjamin $2 (KEEPER)
    Flex2 Sterling Shepard $21 (#6)
    DST Cardinals $2 (#7)

    B1 Gary Barnidge $6 (#5)
    B2 Rishard Matthews $2 (#8)
    B3 Bilal Powell $1 (#9)
    B4 Alfred Morris $2 (#10)
    B5 Jaquizz Rodgers $1 (#11)
    B6 Paul Perkins $1 (#12)
    B7 Darren McFadden $1 (#13)

    My strategy was to get the players I targeted and be aggressive in pursuit. I left last year’s auction w/ $8 on the table, I didn’t want that to happen this year, so I knew I had some money above my budgets to play with. Surprised to get Ezekial, he came in lower than he was valued on my board. Thomas was a surprise as well, never targeted him, but I kept bidding on him because he was valued above $40 on my board (values were skewed after keepers were removed). I basically reset my values based on how much money was left in the pool after all keepers were declared. I was very aggressive w/ Cooper because I targeted him. He was the best WR left in the draft (1-2 w/ Thomas). My next 3 gets, I kind of lost my thinking. I can live w/ both TE’s because I get them for less than what I allotted for my TE spot, production should be good. My draft fell apart at Shepard. I went too aggressive w/out any thought of the repercussions. I’m not unhappy with him as my last starting spot, but my depth is lacking as a result. I have no viable 3rd option at RB, but I only need 2 healthy ones and I did lock up my handcuffs. I also have no viable receiving option outside of my 2nd TE.

    My goal in the season is to target high end FAAB gets to build my depth to get through the bye weeks through the season which shouldn’t be hard. Maybe I can luck into a good situation w/ Powell or Perkins? Health aside, my starting squad ended up looking pretty formidable I think. My team will be a big challenge for opponents.

    I’m interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for the hard work.

    • malamoney says:
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      @David: I don’t care for Morris, Rodgers or McFadden. The rest of the squad looks pretty good. $55 on Cooper seems a bit much…

  4. Rondo says:
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    .5PPR where my 2 keepers are Allen Robinson and Mike Evans. The format allows us to start 4WR and only requires we start 1RB.

    Format:
    QB
    RB
    WR
    WR
    WR-RB
    WR-TE

    With the 4th overall pick in the 1st round, and the players below available, would it be a reach to grab Keenan Allen or should I start with another player (Peterson maybe)?

    Peterson, Keenan Allen, Elliot, Dez, Jeffrey, Cooks, Bell

    • malamoney says:
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      @Rondo: I’d probably look to take the best RB available. You already have 2 solid WR and there are a lot more out there. I do like Allen this year, but his ADP is between 20-24, which means he might be there for your second pick…

  5. nightpandas says:
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    First auction of the year, .5 ppr, how do I look? paid a lot for Cooper but was in a bidding war on the last higher end WR. Howard I’ll probably boot for a kicker. Really wanted K Benjamin for my #2 but $38 was too high for my liking at mid point of draft.

    Q – Newton $30
    RB1 – Ingram $12 (keeper)
    RB2 – R Matthews $11 (keeper)
    WR1 – Cooper $51
    WR2 – Fitzgerald $26
    WR3 – John Brown $24
    TE – Gates $4
    Def – Minn $1
    K – ??
    BN Q: Palmer $6
    BN RB: D Williams $13, T Coleman $5, J Allen $2, J Howard $1
    BN WR: A Hurns $2 (keeper), S Shepard $11, T Williams $1

    • malamoney says:
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      @nightpandas: Looks good. As much as I like Newton, I’d rather spend less on another “lesser” QB and use the extra dollars elsewhere though.

  6. Psh says:
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    Hello! Did you have a Microsoft excel spreadsheet download like last year? It was so money. Those formulas were perfect for on the spot drafting as players went for certain dollar amounts I would put it into the “formula” and it instantly showed me the “best value player left”. I killed my draft because of you.

    Quick question, I play in a 12 team keeper league. I have the following what 3 do you think? We can keep a player for 3 years.

    Alshon Jeffery $32
    Sammy Watkins $9
    Antonio brown $63
    Dez Bryant $58
    Lamar miller $31
    Devanta Freeman $1

    Based on what 3 you choose, who would be your first big target? A RB? WR?

    Thanks.

    • malamoney says:
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      @Psh: Brown, Watkins and Freeman. Watkins and Freeman because they are dirt cheap. Brown because he’s Brown. Then I’d target an RB.

      Do you still have that excel sheet from last year. I am trying to remember which one that was…

    • malamoney says:
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      @Psh: Spreadsheet attached…

      • Psh says:
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        @malamoney: hey thanks, I’ll take a look at that spreadsheet. I do have the old one downloaded if you were still confused on what I was talking about..

        I’m personally between sammy Watkins and lamar miller… I hate to get roped into keeping guys for the value (freeman and watkins) but I’m not 100% sold on miller either. I figure miller will go for like $50 in my draft so Id be saving $19 of draft money. Watkins I have no idea. I know there’s guys in my league who won’t touch him and there might be some who pay $30 or $40…

        You like watkins at $9 over miller? I’m torn because I like them both. I guess I can just target the guy I dont keep

        • PSH says:
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          @Psh: X actually miller is $33 to keep and Sammy is only $7. Just another $5 total draft dollars i’m getting back.

          I think I start to see your point with keeping sammy over lamar miller purely based on price. I can still draft lamar back if i “must have him”. It becomes the game of who i think i can get in the draft cheaply, miller or watkins.

  7. Flowers misses his old glasses... but he's ok tho says:
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    ok, better call saul is much better than walking dead, so nice humble brag on that one. it is cool they got the comedian for negan though.

      • Flowers misses his old glasses... but he's ok tho says:
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        @malamoney: no no, that’s clearly 3rd out of these. i’m saying if you think you are 2nd best to me that WOULD make you walking dead, saul is the best.

          • Flowers misses his old glasses... but he's ok tho says:
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            @malamoney: use breaking bad with better call saul and then you’d get better call saul, pretty good haul.

  8. Michael says:
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    My first ever auction tomorrow!! Thoughts on Josh Gordon at 15-17 with a 200 budget?

    • malamoney says:
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      @Michael: Way too much. Most I’d spend would be about $8. Not a dollar more. I plan to upload a spreadsheet you can use later today. I can’t do from behind this firewall, so once I go home I will upload or provide a link to it…

  9. Steve Bailey says:
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    I don’t understand your initial budget. You allocate $30 for WR1, but you advocate grabbing one of the top four WRs. The budgeted amount doesn’t seem reasonable.

    • malamoney says:
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      @Steve Bailey: Actually you’re right. I neglected to edit that from my post from last year when I cut and pasted it. It should be:

      QB=$10, RB1=$35, RB2=$25, WR1=$55, WR2=$25, Flex=$25, TE=$10, K=$1, DST=$1, Bench=$13 (7 players)

      Thanks for pointing this out. But it was a good example of how to rebalance. I upped the WR1 to $55 to accommodate a WR stud and adjusted the rest of the values. If I spend $30 on my WR2, then I’d likely just adjust my flex budget to $20. And if I spend $5 on a QB I’d add $5 back to my flex or maybe my RB1…

      • Steve Bailey says:
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        @malamoney: Yeah, I like that shift. If ya got a sec, my draft tonight has just 5 on the bench. How much would you budget and which 5 positions. All WRs ad RBs?

        • malamoney says:
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          @Steve Bailey: Are you asking about how much to budget for you 5 bench spots? If so I’d still leave $13 for my bench. Then I’d probably shoot for 3 RB and 2 WR. Probably budget something like:

          $6, $3, $2, $1, $1

  10. Rondo says:
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    What do you think of this team in a 12-Team .5PPR?

    QB: T. Brady
    RB: A. Peterson
    WR: A. Robinson
    WR: A. Jeffrey
    WR/RB: M. Evans
    WR/TE: D. Moncreif
    DST: Texans
    K: Crosby

    Bench QB: E. Manning
    Bench WR: K. Aiken, C. Coleman,
    Bench RB: M. Gordon, G. Bernard, J. McKinnon
    Inj: T. Eifert (round 15 pick)

    Thanks.

  11. Rondo says:
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    12 team .5PPR – who are your top 3 you grabbing off the waiver wire from the list below?

    Stiils, Doctson, T. Coleman, Hogan, McFadden, Morris, J. White, Kearse, Riddick, Coates, Draughn

    • malamoney says:
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      @Rondo: Depends on my needs. Probably White, Riddick and Coates…

Comments are closed.