There is a constant struggle to slice, dice, and crunch the statistics in a way that is most helpful for you. The struggle this week was about if we should continue to use 2010 stats or rely only on the two weeks of 2011. While a solid argument can be made for using the second half of last season’s stats in conjunction with the two weeks of this season, we decided to use exclusively 2011 data.
I feel strongly that using current data, based on current defensive rosters performances is the right way to proceed. Over the next month, statistical trends will grow stronger and we will be able make even better predictions on who will have success or fail based on their matchup. Until the sample size grows we will have to rely on some interpretations. Below are a couple of quick observations.
-Houston and Cleveland have both played Kerry Collins. Their pass defenses, while good, might not be as good as Collins has made them look.
-Jets, Steelers, and despite what Matt Ryan did on Sunday night…the Eagles pass defense, will be in the top ten all season, get used to it.
-Miami got into a week one shootout with Tom Brady and played Matt Schaub in week 2. Their pass defense is probably better than 32nd in the league.
I would also like to use the chart to make a few player specific observations.
-The Chiefs have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends this year, and they are playing Antonio Gates this week.
-If Evan Moore can score on Cincinnati, so can Vernon Davis.
-Kerry Collins and the Steelers are two good reasons to sit Reggie Wayne this week if you have another option.
-Jerome Simpson and David Nelson’s breakouts should continue this week against San Francisco and New England, respectively.
-The only thing that will slow down Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson this week against Kansas City is if they are so far ahead they stop passing.
-You are not in a good place if you are considering starting Donovan McNabb, but let me just say, “Don’t do it.”
-From the desk of Captain Obvious, Jay Cutler will throw for a lot of yards, multiple TDs and multiple INTS this week against Green Bay. If you aren’t penalized too much for interceptions, Cutler is a good play this week.
[table id=37 /]
Key:
Team: The team that is being evaluated for their defensive strength
Opp: The team with your fantasy players
Yds/gm: Total passing yards given up per game
QB FPA: Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks
Comp%: Completion Percentage against
WR FPA: Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers
TE FPA: Fantasy points allowed to tight ends
DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Yds/c: Yards Per Catch
TDs: Passing touchdowns allowed
Average: The average of each each individual ranking
