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faab-bibbs

I’m writing this during Monday Night Football. You’ll (hopefully) be reading this on voting day. It’s a #big day (believe me). Those of us that play in FAAB leagues are free from the tyranny of “reset to inverse order of standings” waiver claims. Free from the passivity of “continual rolling list” waiver claims. We have freedom of FAAB. Freedom to choose Kapri Bibbs or Peyton Barber or Eli Rogers.

This post can be #difficult to write. This is mainly true because I need to have all or most of it done by Monday evening. That means I need to identify players worth acquiring, rank them and assign best guess FAAB values. Because I write this on Monday there is very little news out there. Two weeks ago I recommended Devontae Booker, but without consideration that C.J. Anderson would miss the season (or any time at all) because that information wasn’t out there yet. Now I recommend Kapri Bibbs. Like Booker, he was worth acquiring before news broke in his favor.

Last week I wrote some words about the difficulty of assigning bid recommendations particularly this time of year. This time of year it depends so much on your team situation and the plan you have for your team. With this in mind I’ll be including some notes for different scenarios you may be facing. In general the prices assume you don’t still have 100% of your budget and all prices are based on $100 budgets.

Kapri Bibbs ($30 or a lot more if you can afford it) I just read that Bibbs is expected to play more against New Orleans, a great match up that could make his season. Unfortunately his bye is the week after so if he doesn’t receive a decent workload there will be a question as to whether to keep him. He’s definitely worth owning in 12-team leagues regardless of what happens next week. If you are running back needy I think you need to bid somewhat aggressively or very aggressively depending on how much you like him. Why might you only bid somewhat aggressively? So you can save your budget in case a star running back goes down. In most 12-team leagues this isn’t a valid strategy because there aren’t enough handcuffs left on the market. So bid, bid, bid.

Eli Rogers ($4) “Tue, Nov 1 Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said Eli Rogers is healthy and “up for considerable play” against the Ravens in Week 9.” You see? You see what I miss by writing this early? That news was from last week and is courtesy Rotoworld, via Yahoo! player news updates.

Austin Hooper ($3) and C.J. Fiedorowicz ($2) and Cameron Brate ($2) Tight ends have been brutal this year. Those of us in an unfortunate situation are lucky to have decent players break out this late in the season. I favor Hooper because I like his upside the best based on his skills and the offense he’s in.

Cordarrelle Patterson ($3) Still out there, still receiving targets, maybe he’ll start receiving more carries soon.

Mike James ($1) Is a decent desperation add in leagues where Peyton Barber is owned.

10-team FAAB

There’s always good players available in shallower leagues. Kapri Bibbs is owned in only 4.4% of 10-team ESPN leagues. He’s my top add in 10-team. Thomas Rawls ($3) is owned in 43% of 10-team ESPN leagues. Sammy Watkins ($4) is often available and even Jamison Crowder ($8) is occasionally still available. Rishard Matthews ($6) is out there and I’d pick him up if I had need but I still don’t fully trust the Tennessee passing offense. Obviously Rawls and Watkins fill different needs than the others, higher upside but greater chance they will do nothing.

Peyton Barber ($9) Antone Smith is injured and out for the year, Jacquizz Rodgers seems unlikely to play and Doug Martin is iffy. Still, I have to consider him a player that’s useful for one week only because certainly Martin should be back soon and he could still be back this week.

Alfred Morris ($4) My friends, I have positive news to report regarding Alfred Morris. (He was the topic of last week’s World Wide FAAB, didn’t you know?) While I am disheartened to hear that there are multiple allegations (albeit by the same person) of domestic violence made against Ezekiel Elliott, we must put ourselves in a good position by owning Alfred Morris. This is especially true if you own Elliott.

You also might still consider making your team great again by adding Dion Lewis. There are folks out there that think he won’t contribute. I disagree. If he’s healthy I think he’ll be great again.

Here’s your video: Freedom of Choice

And remember, just because a player you are interested in isn’t here it doesn’t mean I don’t like him. Sometimes I forget people. It’s just reality. Sometimes I even fail to remember a completely obvious name or two, so comment below.

 

Follow Lance on Twitter @Rotolance.

  1. ryanoger says:
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    .5 ppr 10 team

    Been holdin’ tight to my FAAB money (have the full $100), should I go full in to get Bibbs?

    My bench is looking like this right now: Jacquizz, T Coleman, Langford, Dixon, and Dion Lewis

    You think he is here to stay and has potential to shape up as a solid keeper for next year, or little too early to commit to that?

    What’s your thoughts on Langford ROS?

    thanks man!
    ryan

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @ryanoger: It’s definitely a murky situation for 2017 in Denver right now. By the end of the season we’ll know more. C.J. Anderson has a big contract. I assume it’s not easy for them to get out of it but I don’t know those details. If I were them I’d want to get out of it.

      Booker’s been garbage since he took over but so many people were high on him before he took over! What matters is what the Broncos think and as you can imagine they aren’t pleased with Booker’s performance, it’s a results driven league. I own Booker in my FAAB league and I don’t know if I have a realistic chance to acquire Bibbs or who I’d even drop. Right now I think Bibbs > Booker for ROS but I think this next game will go a very long way to determine who has the ROS edge.

      Because it’s a 10-team league I don’t think you have to go all in. There are other players out there. How good is the Denver running game, really? Look at what CJA did when he was more or less full time. Inconsistent. And I doubt either Booker or Bibbs will get the workload CJA had early on. More of a time share.

      I don’t have a problem with blowing all or most of your FAAB though. I guess I’d probably do it. I did it on Booker a couple weeks ago (I spent about 90% of what I had left).

      Jeremy Langford, I thought maybe he’d have a chance to contribute that was until Jordan Howard got almost all the work against the Vikings and ripped it up.

      • ryanoger says:
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        @RotoLance:

        Thanks so much! Appreciate it man, as always, these write up help me hash things out so much…

        cheers,
        Ryan

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @ryanoger: I’m noticing other fantasy writer/analyst folks are not necessarily as high on me on Bibbs. That’s fine. That’s good actually. I think you don’t need to spend all your FAAB on him. The market is an important consideration and it’s not like Bibbs suddenly has the job. It’s really up in the air who will get the bigger workload. The idea is to own Bibbs in case it’s him.

          Like I said still plenty of good players left in 10-team although I’m not really sure what 10-team keeper leagues look like. I’d think there would be more of the short term types available like Peyton Barber.

          • ryanoger says:
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            @RotoLance:

            So my team is solid and shakes out like this:

            QB- A Rod
            WR- Evans, Jordy
            RB- DeMarco, Latavius
            TE- Olsen
            FLEX- Landry
            Bench- Fitz, Jacquizz, T Coleman, Langford, Dixon
            IR- Dion Lewis

            FAs up for grabs:
            Bibbs, Eli Rogers, Peyton Barber, Ivory, JJ, Crowder, Starks, P Perkins, D Harris, Gillislee, S Shepard

            Out of that bunch you likin’ Bibbs the best based on my team above? I have a DEF to drop to acquire Bibbs (or the best out of that bunch). I could then drop Langford to add another FA from above, thoughts? Thanks again man!

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
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              @ryanoger: Yep, that’s probably what I’d be doing, just what you said.

              Bibbs my favorite out of those. Probably Langford for one of the receivers. You are just trying to have decent bench options in case one of your starters goes down. Plus DeMarco has a late bye. I kinda like D Harris as the best 2nd option if you don’t land Bibbs.

              • ryanoger says:
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                @RotoLance:

                Sounds good man, I may throw some solid money at Bibbs and then look to snag Harris or Eli Rogers who I think is a stud.

  2. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    I still kinda like Ladarius Green as a high upside tight end. More than the players I named above except possibly Hooper.

  3. Nightpandas says:
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    You dropping Barnidge for Hooper or Ertz in a 12 team .5ppr?

    • Nightpandas says:
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      @Nightpandas:Zach Miller out there too

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @Nightpandas: Yeah I like Miller’s combination of safety and upside, probably would go with him above the others.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Nightpandas: If Tamme is expected to be out again this week I think I’d go Hooper there but .5 PPR does help Barnidge the most of the 3 I think. Ertz appears to have a good matchup as ATL has given up a ton of points to tight ends. I think I still go Hooper for the best chance of the 3 for a TD (or two).

  4. IrishGuy says:
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    Need RB, 12 man Ppr 24 of my 100 left, spend how much on Bibbs or Starks?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @IrishGuy: Starks probably has legitimate competition in the form of Ty Montgomery and has less upside than Bibbs. I prefer Bibbs of the two. The market for Bibbs is looking a bit weaker than I expected so maybe bid 20$ish on Bibbs? Yeah it’s most of your budget but I think it’s worth it and I think you have a legit chance to acquire him for that much. Maybe a little less if $0 bids aren’t allowed, assuming you’ll make other transactions this year. I wouldn’t target Starks aggressively with so little budget remaining, maybe $4 if you need him to start this week. Otherwise $2 I guess. Every dollar matters when you have so little.

      Good luck.

  5. omar says:
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    12 team 1pt PPR.

    Currently rostering Gronk and Eifert. Thinking about making the following offer:

    Give:
    Gronk
    Nuk Hopkins

    Get:
    AJ Green
    Delanie Walker

    Current Roster:
    QB – Big Ben
    WR – A-Rob
    WR – Nuk
    RB – Lamar Miller
    RB – Ajayi
    TE – Gronk
    Flx – Diggs
    Bn – Eifert
    Bn – Dion Lewis
    Bn – Tyrell Williams
    Bn – R Kelley
    Bn – Deangelo Williams
    Bn – Prosise

    Rationale: Got a feeling Eifert will go off ROS, and I don’t trust Hopkins or A-Rob (well, their QB’s at least). Love Gronk, but I feel like I could maximize my potential by moving one of my TE’s. Walker would give me some security and be a solid contributor should Eifert go down.

    Thoughts? Should I switch A-Rob for Nuk in the deal? I trust A-Rob a little more based on volume alone and the hope that Bortles can show some of that 2015 productivity.

    Thanks

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @omar: I do think that Gronk is a legit sell high if you get the right pieces back.

      If you’ll be starting Eifert at TE and not starting Delanie in FLEX (which makes sense, he’s probably not an upgrade there) than this is basically a 2 for 1 Gronk and Nuk for A.J. Green. I can’t say I like the trade for your end but if Eifert can perform very well than it probably will work out. I’m fairly sure I still value A-Rob over Hopkins so I agree there.

      At the very least check the Bengals schedule first. You’ll have a lot invested in that offense. Ok so I checked that schedule and nothing really stands out as far as their matchups.

      Again, I don’t really have a problem with it. It’s an interesting gamble.

  6. Mike says:
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    I have an offer on the table: Dion Lewis for Jordan Matthews (on my roster). I am pretty deep in the WR/TE position (Julio, Jordy, D Adams, J Graham, Eiffert, Moncrief, Wallace and Matthews) but very thin at RB (Melvin Gordon and Bibbs). Would you recommend making the trade? Thank you for your help.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Mike: I’m going to make an assumption that Matthews’ best fantasy weeks are ahead. That he will outperform what he’s down so far. Under that assumption Lewis v Matthews is a close call.

      Because of your depth at WR I would go ahead and make the trade.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @RotoLance: what he’s done* so far.

        • Mike says:
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          @RotoLance:

          The other manager pulled the trade offer before I had a chance to accept it. Rawls, Crowell, Harris, Barber, Matt Jones/Kelley and Langford are all available. I was considering Rawls since Michael has been struggling and could be a nice rest of the season pickup. Please let me know your thoughts. Thank you.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Mike: Lame! But in a way understandable with things trending in Lewis’ direction.

            Rawls and Crowell are very tempting. Doug Martin looks to be back, although Carlos Hyde not yet so D Harris is another interesting player.

            • Mike says:
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              @RotoLance:

              My concern is week 11 especially as my only two RB’s will be on bye. I agree on Harris; was just concerned on possibly missing the boat on Rawls and with Harris likely being a one more than done. Crowell is coming off waivers and I would have a good shot to get him I think. Rawls and Harris as well as most of the ones I mentioned are sitting on the waiver wire.

              • RotoLance

                RotoLance says:
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                @Mike: Week 11 is the earliest Rawls will return and I see it as very iffy. Even if he did return I bet he doesn’t get his full workload that week.

                As far as Harris, I’m not sure if Hyde will still be out for week 11. Due two your bye situation I’d definitely lean Harris as more of a sure thing to get you something for week 11. Although I haven’t looked at the Matt Jones / Kelley situation recently.

                • Mike says:
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                  @RotoLance:

                  Sounds good. Thank you, RotoLance!

                  • RotoLance

                    RotoLance says:
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                    @Mike: I meant i’d lean CROWELL

                    DUH. Sorry about that.

                  • RotoLance

                    RotoLance says:
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                    @Mike: Just saw this on Twitter:

                    @MasterTes 21s21 seconds ago
                    “Rob Kelley is our first string running back.” – Jay Gruden #Redskins

                    • Mike says:
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                      @RotoLance:

                      I’ll go get him! Thanks for the tip.

                    • Mike says:
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                      @RotoLance:

                      Sorry to keep bugging you! I was able to pick up Kelley. Thanks again for that tip! My week 10 lineup is as follows:

                      QB Rivers
                      RB Gordon’
                      WR Julio
                      WR/TE Jordy
                      WR/TE Graham
                      WR/TE Eifert
                      WR/RB Matthews

                      BN Kelley
                      BN Bibbs
                      BN Wallace
                      BN D Adams
                      BN Moncrief (Bye)

                      Would you start Kelley (or any other player on my roster) over what I have set up now. I had Kelly on bench due to tough match-up with Min. Let me know your thoughts.

                      Thanks.

                    • RotoLance

                      RotoLance says:
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                      @RotoLance: I’d probably leave as is.

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