What’s going on everyone, and welcome back to another edition of my ADP Preview series, where today I’ll be taking a look at some of my favorite options based off their current ADP’s, and some players that I’ll be staying away from.

The NFL is now officially back after Thursday night’s Hall of Fame Game, as we saw some fascinating football being played last night between the Bears and Ravens. The rest of the preseason is almost here, which means that Week 1 will be here before we know it!

So let’s get to it!

Current ADP Data is Based Off 10-Team Leagues, via 4for4.com

Buy

Leonard Fournette (ADP: 2.01)

I haven’t done that great of a job talking about Mr. Fournette over the summer, and he’s by no means a sleeper, but getting a talent like Fournette on your fantasy team in the start of the second round, meaning that he’ll be your 2nd round pick, is just incredible. If you get a 8th, 9th or 10th overall draft pick to work from, it’ll be a dream start if you can get one of Odell or Julio in the first round, and then Fournette on the 1-2 turnaround. If that doesn’t make you squeal with delight, you have no soul.

Fournette will only be able to improve in his second season in the Jaguars offense that revolves around him, more so in 2018 now that they’ve gotten rid of both Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. Being able to take Fournette in the second round is a blessing, so take advantage of it.

Jerick McKinnon (ADP: 3.02)

Another running back who’s value is incredibly high due to his ADP, McKinnon should be a perfect RB2 for those with an early draft pick on the 2-3 turn. After a career year in Minnesota, the Vikings decided to let him walk in free agency, and decided to go all-in on Dalvin Cook. That’s fine for the Vikings, but the 49ers jumped all over this opportunity, and got their versatile back this summer after losing Carlos Hyde to Cleveland.

While he didn’t set the world on fire in Minnesota, he did do enough to finish in the top 12 in fantasy four times during weeks 5-16, and now will head to play under a head coach in Kyle Shanahan who has a very nice track record with his running backs, as his RB units have finished in the top 16 in eight out of 10 seasons. Even the playcalling tendencies of last season will immediately help McKinnon, as the Niners finished 4th in the NFL in plays per game.

I have high hopes for McKinnon in this very creative offense, and for a 3rd-round price, I’ll gladly take him as my RB2 in PPR leagues.

Golden Tate (ADP: 5.07)

Like I mentioned in this article, Tate has a little extra motivation heading into his final year of his contract this season, but even if he didn’t have an extra incentive, I’d still try to get him on my team at all costs. He’s not the sexiest pick in the world, but you’re getting some very reliable production for a 5th-round draft pick.

Even with the emergences of Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick and Kenny Golladay, Tate was still the go-to guy for Stafford last season, as he caught 90+ catches for the 4th-straight year in Detroit, and playing another full 16 games, something he’s done every single year in his professional career. That’s some pretty great production for a 5th-round draft pick, and I have no issues taking him as my WR2 or 3.

Delanie Walker (ADP: 7.03)

After a full summer at Razzball hyping up the new-look Titans offense under Mike Vrabel and Matt LaFleur, I’m going to be very disappointed when they go 0-16 and Mariota becomes the worst QB in NFL history.

I’m kidding of course, but maybe I should dial my Titans love a bit down, right? Anyways, I’ll still keep hyping up all of the Titans, especially Delanie Walker. While he’s not getting any younger, he’s been crazy effective over the course of his career, with racking up 800+ yards in four straight seasons, and catching 60+ balls in 5 straight seasons. Until Corey Davis seriously bursts onto the scene (which I think he will this season), he’ll still be a go-to target for Mariota. The TE position in 2018 is very top-heavy, and if you can’t get the elite guys, Walker is a nice value target in the 7th round for a very reliable Tight End.

Rex Burkhead (ADP: 8.08)

While many others here at Razzball and across the fantasy community love them some Sony Michel, and for good reason, I think I wouldn’t be doing my job correctly if I didn’t advocate for the drafting of Rex Burkhead in the later stages of the draft.

Although the Pats spent big in the draft on Michel, which is a good indicator of fantasy production, Burkhead isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Although he only played 10 games last season, he was a damn good running back for that stretch, posting 8 total TD’s and 518 all-purpose yards. And while his total snap-rate was pretty low, he was an excellent flex play for most weeks. Even with the addition of Michel and Jeremy Hill, Burkhead has the trust of the coaching staff, and should still produce this season. And for an 8th round draft pick, I’ll gladly take the risk of him losing a significant amount of snaps to his counterparts.

Marquise Goodwin (ADP: 11.01)

Although the 49ers still have Pierre Garcon, I believe that Goodwin is their best receiver, and I’ll take any WR1 in the 11th round. While he did benefit from Garcon’s absence last season, he still racked in a lot of targets, 92 to be exact, with 962 yards and 2 TD’s. You’d like to see that TD-number rise up a little bit, it’s understandable that he didn’t score a ton with Jimmy G starting only 5 games towards the end of the 2017.

He carries big-play ability in a very creative offense that should get even better with a full season of Garoppolo. In the 11th round, it’s all about upside, and you’re getting just that with Goodwin as your WR4.

Sell

Tyreek Hill (ADP: 3.09)

Simply put, my issue with Hill is that I don’t want to spend a 3rd-round pick on a wideout whose target share is going to go down by a lot thanks to the new addition of Sammy Watkins. Watkins is already building a nice repertoire with Mahomes, and if they still plan to run Hunt into the ground like all of their RB’s in franchise history, then Hill won’t nearly be as productive as he was last season.

Derrick Henry (ADP: 5.01)

While I do love me some Titans this year, I’m not feeling it towards Henry. While it is good news that they got rid of Demarco, it’s not good news for Henry that they paid Dion Lewis. And when you look at Lewis’ skill-sets, it’s clear that he’s a better fit for an up-tempo, RPO-like offense that they plan on running in 2018. Henry’s ADP isn’t bad, but I’d rather take someone else at that range, and buy Dion only a few rounds later.

Jimmy Graham (ADP: 6.01)

It seems like the Packers have never had a reliable Tight End, and why should it start now with Graham? Gone are the days of his elite-TE1 status in New Orleans, as he was relegated to being a very streaky TD-dependent option for the Seahawks. He’ll have to maintain his TD rate in Green Bay where he’ll have much more competition in the redzone with Adams and Cobb. Personally, I’ll just pass on Graham in the 6th-round

 

Alright guys, that is my time for today. Thank you so much for reading, and I will see you all next week for more strategy articles as we get deeper into August!

 

You Can Follow Zach on Twitter @razzball_zach

  1. Barker says:
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    12 team keeper keep 3 – keep player in rd they were drafted player moves up a rd for each year kept free agents kept in rd 12
    Qb and q/w/r/t flex so basically a 2 qb league

    Kamara 15 th rd
    Mariota 7th rd
    Luck 2nd rd
    Evan engram 12th rd
    Josh gordon 12th rd
    Jay ajayi 12th rd
    Devante parker 8th rd
    Smith schuster 12th rd

    I am thinking kamara ajayi mariota
    Mariota might be a 6th rd pick as he was part of a trade and not sure how the rds will be worked out but i dont think that makes much difference

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Barker: Hey Barker! Thanks for the question!

      For me, it’s really really close but I’d go with Kamara, Smith-Schuster and Gordon. All of them pose some serious upside, but if you want to swap out Gordon for Ajayi or Mariota I’d have no complaints.

  2. MattH says:
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    When do auction values come out? Thanks.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @MattH: Jay’s will come out in a few weeks. We’ll make sure to keep everyone updated!

  3. Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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    just now about to have to make my first football decision of the year, haven’t caught back up on anything yet, but that’s coming right soon. 12 team 2 QB half PPR dynasty (also short IDP’s). we have a message board slow draft in which we can draft up to 3 people (we can drop as we draft). i need to drop 2 people today though. it’s 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 team D, 4 flex IDP’s (and they don’t score huge here relatively to the offensive players)
    QB (have tons, always never a problem to stash)- rodgers, mahomes, rodfather, foles, lynch, brissett
    RB: kamara (it was sooo nice how cheap i got him last year after i thought i missed out on all the better RB’s at the time he was pick 24), ingram, burkhead (seems to have gained value in offseason), perine/gallman (both lost value big time)
    WR: (seems like these are all kept players): k.allen, theilen, m.lee, d-jax (TB in case there is a new one), jordy, edelman
    TE: ertz
    K: KC kicker
    team D: JAX
    IDPs: r.jones DB, t.smith, ogletree, burfict, trevathan
    with the worst pick in all 3 rounds last year went mahomes/kamara/charles (worthless on last pick)
    so i’m clearly looking to draft RB depth now with the 3rd to worst pick in all rounds. guessing my drop here is a QB and probably an IDP (during season i want probably 1 BN IDP, but they are somewhat easily findable). draftable RB outside of rookies would be blount/sims/ekeler/ware

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey: What’s up man, thanks for the question!

      Yeah, I would probably drop Lynch and Gallman. I don’t see any of those two having any value in the future. If you don’t want to drop Lynch, then I’d go with one of the IDP players or Brissett, up to you.

  4. Nightpandas says:
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    Hey Zach,

    12 team std keep 3 forever

    My keepers are looking like Gurley Kamara M Thomas (Gronk on the outside looking in)

    Just got offered OBJ for Kamara…would you do it?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Nightpandas: Honestly, you already have Michael Thomas, who may exceed OBJ’s value in the next year or so, so I’d stay put for now.

  5. Nightpandas says:
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    12 team .5ppr keep 3 (forever)

    Elliot $60
    D Henry $25
    Jones Jr $11
    Funchess $2
    Rivers $5
    Last Murray $5
    P Barber $5

    Pretty sure I’m keeping Zeke as i am almost sure he would go for more if I threw him back

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Nightpandas: I would keep Zeke, Barber and Henry. Thanks for the question!

  6. Justin Ralph says:
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    10 team keeper league. PPR. 2 QB. You can keep three players for the round they were selected in.

    Which three would you keep.

    Keenan Allen (5)
    Diggs (7)
    Kenyan Drake (16)
    Garoppolo (16)
    Marvin Jones (16)

    Its two QB so I’m keeping Garoppolo for sure. Allen also is a great value so I’m keeping him too. So it comes down to Diggs for a 7th or Kenyan Drake for a 16th. I’m leaning towards Drake but could use some help with this one. Who would you keep?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Justin Ralph: Hey Justin, thanks for the question!

      I would keep Garoppolo, Allen, and Drake. Personally, because you’re holding onto Allen already, I’d rather get a RB1 in the 16th than another wideout in the 7th that you can easily make up for in the draft. Hard to deny Drake’s value.

      Let me know if you have any other questions!

      • Justin Ralph says:
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        @Zach: Great thanks for the advice!

  7. Drekkan says:
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    Hi Zach,

    Full disclosure, asked MB for his views, but want to try to get as much input as I can, so thanks for the time if you can answer this.

    Twelve team 0.5PPR. Keep 2:

    T. Hill (5th Round)
    A. Thielen (8th Round)
    K. Drake (8th Round)

    If I keep both 8th rounders one gets bumped to a 7th. Sorely tempted by Hill & Thielen and then just pounding RBs early on. I know Hill will see some decrease in production, but not sure if keeping Drake as effectively a 7th will work.

    • cmutimmah says:
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      @Drekkan: Theilen, Drake, not even close. Hill is going to be a bust this year, so unless you can line up a trade for him, he can’t be your 5th.

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Drekkan: No worries man! I hear what you’re saying, but I think you should keep Drake and Thielen, just because the 8th-round value is too good to pass up for Drake. You can easily target another wideout that you’ll have to have because of Hill.

  8. I also don’t like Henry, and love McKinnon for the same reasons you stated. Id much rather Dion Lewis later and he is the better all around back. McKinnon is an athletic freak, thats will get a lot of touches and Shanahan will find creative ways to use him and get him the ball. The third round may seem a little high although. Would you rather have Lewis or McKinnon at their draft prices?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @Donny MIller: I agree wholeheartedly about Lewis>Henry when you factor in ADP price. However, I would still rather take McKinnon over Lewis.

  9. cmutimmah says:
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    McKinnon has ZERO competition for the job. Don’t underestimate the importance of a clear path. When McKinnon had a clear path for the Vikings, we was putting up 20+ point weeks in PPR formats.

    Now, you’re paying close to full price for McKinnon because of this, and buying into SF’s offense has become late round posh in drafts recently. So, even though McKinnon is more of a late 3rd early 4th value play today, he could be one of those preseason movers if he starts putting up some good tape in that offense. I expect guys like Rashaad Penny, Kerryon Johnson, Guice, and others to dance up a few spots in the drafts as they show anything in the preseason.

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