2020 Shadow Coverage Report
Division: NFC South
WR1: D.J. Moore
Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 9
In 2019 D.J. Moore somehow avoided multiple match-ups vs. shadow corners. In week 3 the Panthers faced the Arizona Cardinals while Patrick Peterson was on suspension. In Week 5 the Panthers played against the Jaguars with no Jalen Ramsey. Finally, in week 12 the Saints were without Marshon Lattimore and in Week 17 Lattimore played limited snaps as the Saints had their playoff seed sealed up. Even young cornerback Carlton Davis was yet to be used in shadow coverage as the Panthers faced the Buccaneers both times early in 2019. These circumstances have led to D.J. Moore being shadowed only once in his career and that was against the New Orleans Saints without Marshon Lattimore in week 12 of 2019. In that game P.J Williams was no match for Moore as he went for 6-126-2.
2019 Yards Per Covered Snap
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||2,10||Carlton Davis||1.08|
Los Angeles Chargers
|Casey Hayward Jr.||0.71|
|Chris Harris Jr.||1.12|
|Arizona Cardinals||4||Patrick Peterson||1.25|
|New Orleans Saints||7||Marshon Lattimore||1.21|
|Detroit Lions||11||Jeffrey Okudah||Rookie|
|Denver Broncos||14||A.J. Bouye||1.48|
|Green Bay Packers||15||Jaire Alexander||1.3|
|League Average 2019 Yards Per Covered Snap||1.31|
Early Season Schedule (Weeks 1-4)
After a week 1 tilt vs. the Raiders the Panthers have three straight potential shadow coverage match-ups. The first comes in week 2 vs. Carlton Davis and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Davis down the stretch of 2019 held his own vs. Julio Jones (7-78) and (5-68) and DeAndre Hopkins (5-23). In Week 3 D.J. Moore will square off vs. Casey Hayward/Chris Harris and the Los Angeles Chargers. Both cornerbacks have experience shadowing opposing number ones so it will be interesting to see if one gets assigned Moore. Finally, in week 4, D.J Moore will face Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals who baring an injury should be on the field to square off vs. him this time around. Something notable about Patrick Peterson is that he is one of the few elite shadow corners that will travel into the slot so Moore could see him almost all game.
Fantasy Playoff Schedule (Weeks 14-16)
After Week 4 D.J Moore does have 6 more potential shadow coverage match-ups including 3 in the fantasy playoffs. The good news is only 1 of the 3 match-ups in the fantasy playoffs comes against a tier 1 corner. That match-up is against A.J Bouye and the Denver Broncos in Week 14. Even though Bouye is coming off a down year in 2019, he still played well versus notable wide receivers including Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen.
The second match-up will be verse Jaire Alexander and the Green Bay Packers. By the time week 15 rolls around we should know if the Packers are deploying Alexander as a full-time shadow corner in 2020. Finally, in week 16 Moore will square off vs. Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team. Rivera used a lot of shadow coverage in his time in Carolina so it will be interesting to see if one of the Washington corners emerges in that role. However, until further notice we are not avoiding this match-up.
2020 Draft Recommendation
Currently being drafted as the WR 11 in the back of the third round Moore’s situation is similar to Mike Evans as his early season schedule could make him a fade in drafts and a trade target mid-season. Also, another key element to why it might be a good idea to avoid Moore is the potential drop in targets. Last season the Panthers were second in the NFL with 633 pass attempts, and with a new coaching staff coming in it could take time for new Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady to get acclimated to calling plays in the NFL. Finally, new QB Teddy Bridgewater has never been a high-volume passer in his career and with Robby Anderson now in the fold D.J. Moore could struggle to return WR1 value early on in 2020.