Awards put a wrap on another exciting fantasy football season! How many #RazzballTitles did you win?
This was a fun article to write! I continue our series of Fantasy Awards with my colleagues Matt Stiles (@Stiles08), Derek Favret (@Derek_Favret) and Bobby Lamarco (@BobbyLamarco). I was tasked (or rather rewarded) with running backs.
Join me as I recap my 2023 Fantasy Award winners (and loser) for Running Back MVP, Bust, Steal, and look ahead to 2024 with my first RB Sleeper (go get him in Dynasty!).
Who did I miss?
Who are your “way-too-early” predictions for 2024’s awards?
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Running Back MVP
- Player: Christian McCaffrey
- Team: San Francisco 49ers
- Positional Finish (ADP): RB1 (RB1)
In PPR leagues, McCaffrey finished as the No. 1 overall player in points per game, including quarterbacks, with 24.5. He sat Week 18 in a meaningless game for the 49ers, so he dropped to 3rd overall in total points with 391.3 behind only Josh Allen and CeeDee Lamb. CMC was the consensus 1.01 unless you went with Justin Jefferson. The last time the 1.01 draft pick in fantasy actually finished first was Antonio Brown in 2016. It might seem obvious that McCaffrey would be named the Fantasy MVP this season, but meeting expectations with top picks is incredibly rare, unfortunately.
Here’s a list of the top draft picks in fantasy and where they finished in PPR formats over the last decade:
2013: Adrian Peterson – finished RB11
2014: LeSean McCoy – finished RB12
2015: Adrian Peterson – finished RB2
2016: Antonio Brown – finished WR1
2017: David Johnson – finished RB114 (hurt Week 1)
2018: Todd Gurley – finished RB3
2019: Saquon Barkley – finished RB10
2020: Christian McCaffrey – finished RB54 (missed 13 games)
2021: Christian McCaffrey – finished RB54 (missed 8 games)
2022: Jonathan Taylor – finished RB33 (missed 6 games)
2023: Christian McCaffrey – finished RB1
Not only did CMC pan out as your top pick, but he dominated, leading the NFL in rushing yards, attempts, receiving TDs by RB, fantasy points per game (PPG), and total PPR fantasy points (123 more than Etienne at RB2). He had 21 total TDs, was 2nd w/ 20+ rushes (behind only De’Von Achane) and finished 3rd in targets and receiving yards among RBs. When healthy, he’s the best player in fantasy football, and it’s not close.
Honorable Mention: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Running Back Bust
- Player: Austin Ekeler
- Team: Los Angeles Chargers
- Positional Finish (ADP): RB26 (RB2)
Can you guess who was the RB1 in Week 1…? It was Aaron Jones, but RB2 was Ekeler with a blistering 26.4 fantasy points, good for seventh overall on the week among all positions. He was the top RB in fantasy between Weeks 8-10, averaging 22 PPR fantasy points per game. Other than that, it was a nightmare. Ekeler would miss three games in Weeks 2-4 before the Chargers’ bye in Week 5. He had one more game of 20+ fantasy points in Week 14 but less than 12 in nine of his 14 healthy games. If you somehow made it to the fantasy playoffs, he was RB34 with 9.2 PPRPPG. He had his lowest reception total since 2019 with 51 and went from 20 total touchdowns in 2021 and 18 total touchdowns in 2022 to a measly six total touchdowns in 2023. Justin Herbert playing hurt and missing four games didn’t help, but yikes. If you took Ekeler at his ADP as a Top 5 overall selection, you most likely had your playoff hopes dashed early. He’s one of the biggest proponents of fantasy football among NFL players. I wish him the best and root for him, but this one stings. It’ll be hard to buy back in next year unless his draft day cost drops dramatically.
Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Running Back Steal
- Player: Raheem Mostert
- Team: Miami Dolphins
- Positional Finish (ADP): RB5 (RB36)
Heeeeeeeem was HIM! Drafted in the middle 8th, Mostert rallied to RB5, staying healthy and scoring more touchdowns (21) in 2023 than the rest of his career combined (19). His teammate De’Von Achane was a possibility for this award as well but was missed or was irrelevant in eight games. Mostert had career-highs across the board and would have most likely landed RB2 if he had played in the final two games for Miami. He had shown flashes while in San Francisco but couldn’t stay healthy. This year, he paced the Dolphins’ run game with an NFL-leading 18 rushing touchdowns. In the 8th Round, you’re hoping for a bye week replacement. Mostert was that and then some. If you drafted Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara or J.K. Dobbins as your RB1/RB2 and took a flier on Mostert late, you most likely made the fantasy playoffs and possibly won it due to your depth. It’ll be very interesting to see what drafters do come August with Mostert and Achane. Although he’ll be 32 and has been in the league since 2015, Mostert only has about four season’s worth of work on his body. If healthy, he should stay relevant for Mike McDaniel, with Achane as one of the best “lightning” backs in the NFL.
Honorable Mention: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Early 2024 Running Back Sleeper
- Player: Tyjae Spears
- Team: Tennessee Titans
- Positional Finish (ADP): RB51 (RB36)
With King Henry most likely out in TEN, Spears should be slotted as the next man up. He had an impressive rookie campaign, playing all 17 games and finishing with 152 total touches, 838 total yards, and three touchdowns. Spears was tied for 7th in RB targets with Rachaad White (70) and 8th in RB receptions with Joe Mixon and Jahmyr Gibbs (52). For comparison, Henry’s rookie season (backing up DeMarco Murray) was 123 total touches, 627 total yards and five touchdowns (RB46 in PPR). The Titans recently fired HC Mike Vrabel, so who knows how the offense will develop over the offseason, but as of now, Spears is the clear-cut starter in what should remain a run-first attack with Will Levis coming into year two. Spears showed advanced metrics as a rookie, which bodes well for breaking out in 2024. He was 4th in juke rate (26.3%), 5th in breakaway run rate (7%), and yards created per touch (4.58), 6th in yards per touch (5.5), and 7th in target share (14.7%) among running backs. Try to move a 2nd for him in dynasty leagues while you can.
Honorable Mention: Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
For more from Sky and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @skyguasco.
