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As we draw closer to the kickoff of the 2023 football season, we need to start aligning our tiers/rankings to ensure we gather as much value as possible and do not waste any roster space on names that will not bring a solid return.
Now is the time to determine which wide receivers are fades less than two weeks from the start of the season. Some of these names you probably have on your Best Ball rosters already, which means you are stuck with them. Fear not, since you undoubtedly have more drafts in the near future. Let’s use what we know regarding camp battles and injuries and move some players down our board or fade altogether. Consider this article a BOGO, as I will provide the fades and players to consider instead later in the draft.
Next to each name is the current ADP as of August 20, 2023, which you can find here: Consensus 2023 Fantasy Football ADP (razzball.com)
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Deebo Samuel (33)
Calvin Ridley (34)
Jerry Jeudy (45)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (83)
Odell Beckham Jr. (101)
Deebo Samuel is a dual-threat talent, and we all fell in love with him two seasons ago when he stepped up for a decimated running back corps for the 49ers. As much as we want to see Deebo do those same things again, with CMC firmly entrenched as the RB1 and commanding a ton of touches, it just won’t happen. Will Deebo get some rushing attempts? Sure, he will, but temper your expectations. Will Deebo run after the catch? You bet he will. Is Deebo worth the 33rd overall pick? I do not think he is. This fade is not so much about the player’s talent as it is the ADP. I prefer waiting 27 picks over two full rounds to select Brandon Aiyuk. Hot Take: At season’s end, Aiyuk will have more PPR points than Deebo.
I will receive a lot of hate mail from the Calvin Ridley truthers. I am here for it. Let me explain why. Two words should sum it up…Michael Thomas. Remember when Michael Thomas was the second coming of Jerry Rice? I do. Remember when Michael Thomas was injured and then came back after missing significant time playing NFL-level football? I do. He was not ready and was not at game speed. He was drafted too high and disappointed a lot of fantasy owners.
The parallels are slightly different as Thomas missed his time due to injury (and maybe some Terrell Owens, diva-like attitude), whereas Ridley missed time for being dumb and betting on sports. Bad look and the commissioner’s office sent a stern message with the full 2022 season suspension. Social media has fallen in love with the Ridley camp footage and his crisp route running. I like the guy, but he has been away from practice and, more importantly, game action for over a year.
Consider in less than two weeks, Ridley has moved from WR33 at 7.02 to WR17 at 3.08 and then tell me if you are willing to ride the hype wave. I probably am not and will be happy to grab the Jags WR2, Christian Kirk, 35 picks, basically three full rounds later.
I like Jerry Jeudy in 2023. There, I said it. I do not like Jeudy at this current ADP of 45. The hope with Denver is that Russell Wilson is not terrible (again) in 2023. The guy can still throw the football, and if he can put 2022 behind him, then I like Jeudy even more this year. A healthy Javonte, with the addition of Samaje Perine, will help take some pressure off Russ. All of that to say, I would like to roster Jeudy, but I am not willing to jump into the 4th Round to do so.
When the season is over, I think the Broncos WR2, Courtland Sutton, will score enough PPR points to justify waiting 52 picks. You read that right…. FIFTY-TWO pick discount on Sutton. That value looks even better with the injury to Tim Patrick. Bottom Line: Fade Jeudy unless he slips into the 5th Round and run to the draft podium to select Sutton at the top of the 9th Round.
I love playing in leagues where I know some of the other managers get too wrapped up in rookie hype. As I started to participate in mock drafts and even a couple of best ball drafts, I took note of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) flying up draft boards. I liked D.K. Metcalf and loved Tyler Lockett before Seattle added JSN. What turned into a nice pair of WRs seemingly became a crowded position room. Geno Smith must love the addition of another weapon, but I am not as high (83 overall) on the player based on the fact Geno has his two top WRs and too many mouths to feed reduces all their value at least a little.
I tend to fade D.K. a little bit at the end of the 3rd Round (29 overall), as I think that area of the draft could be the time to land a high-end QB. I prefer to focus on Tyler Lockett later (65), fading both D.K. slightly and JSN even more. With the recent news of JSN’s wrist fracture potentially costing him 3-4 games, I fade him even further down the draft board. Buyer beware.
I have rostered this guy once, and he was much more boom than bust the year I drafted him. Since then, I have faded Odell Beckham Jr. and will never place him on one of my fantasy rosters again. Two significant ACL injuries and his diva-like attitude tell me someone else can deal with the headache and lack of production. This is not Willis Reed coming down the tunnel to save the day. Beckham is an overpaid, underperforming WR near, dare I say, the end of his decent NFL career.
I am here to promote the rookie WR I think has the best 2023 in front of him, and that is my guy Zay Flowers, currently being drafted 10 slots ahead of Beckham. Flowers was compared to Tyreek Hill on draft night, and his camp tape jumps off the screen and has my attention. If you do not want to pay up the 10 picks, then simply take an eight-pick discount and grab Rashod Bateman at 120 overall. Trust me, a healthy Bateman is worth a ton more than an oft-injured, washed-up Beckham.
Who are your fades at WR, and who are you drafting in their place?Â
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-Mitch-
