What to Expect from Rookie Quarterbacks

The biggest lottery in fantasy football is the output of rookies. To help us make some accurate predictions of what to expect from this year’s class, we’re going to look through previous rookies over the last ten years who have been drafted into similar situations. But before that, if you haven’t already, make sure you subscribe to Razzball so you can enjoy all the awesome tools and content we have on the site. Today we’ll be starting off with the quarterbacks. Should you be drafting Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels in redraft this year? What should you expect? Let’s find out.

Week 1 Starters (eg. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix):

We’ll be breaking our quarterbacks into groups based on their draft slot and their expected role in their rookie season. First up, we’ll look at passers stepping into a starting role. That should cover Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and presumedly Bo Nix who are expected to start week 1 under center.

Since 2013, there have been 23 quarterbacks who started week 1 of their rookie season. There’s some big names in this list but the results have been less than stellar with Dak Prescott (QB6) and Kyler Murray (QB7) the only rookies to finish as a QB1 with just three others finishing in the top 18. While injuries certainly curtailed otherwise positive seasons for Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson, that only adds one more top 12 season. The reality is that most starting rookie quarterbacks will be totally useless for at least the first part of the season. Jayden Daniels is the primary name people are drafting this year and that’s for good reason. He’s an elite runner and an accurate passer who has the upside to perform like Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson in his rookie year. But the floor is evidently tremendously low and I wouldn’t be going out of my way to be drafting him at his current value. Caleb Williams is going far cheaper and he’s also a more talented prospect than most on this list and has been surrounded by better weapons than most rookies. I think given the lower draft capital needed to get him in redraft, I’d consider him in 1QB leagues but he’s too risky in superflex.

Day 1 Quarterbacks who won’t start Week 1 (eg. Drake Maye, Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy):

Quarterbacks not expected to start fall into a number of categories but it is best at this point to consider their draft slot, as this is the best indicator of whether they will permanently win the starting role or not. Hence the previous Top 10 picks are the most useful indicators of this year’s rookies’ success. While memories of Lamar Jackson tearing it up late in his rookie season may make this seem like a tempting proposition, the history of QBs who didn’t start Week 1 is pretty ugly. Only Justin Herbert has provided true season-long value (and he was lucky to start that early) while most other rookies will struggle even in the latter part of the year. I’d be vary wary of expecting a late-season explosion from any of these rookies and would avoid them even in superflex.

Day 3 Quarterbacks who won’t start week 1 (eg. Spencer Rattler, Jordan Travis, Joe Milton, Devin Leary, Michael Pratt):

There have been 70 quarterbacks selected on Day 3 in the last 10 years. While Dak Prescott and Gardner Minshew started Week 1 and had some success, only ten others made a start at any stage during their rookie seasons, with only Brock Purdy keeping the job until the end of the season. That Purdy required two quarterback injuries in front of him to even get a chance shows you how unlikely it is to get any fantasy value out of a late round pick. These guys should never be drafted outside deeper dynasty leagues. In fact of the 70 players drafted in these rounds, only Purdy and Prescott have become meaningful fantasy contributors out of the final day’s picks. Note that the table below only includes players who played at least a half of football in their rookie season.

So to keep it simple, in 1QB leagues, consider Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams if they really fall in your draft. Bo Nix is only a superflex option and only if you’re desperate. Nobody else if worth considering. If you need help valuing players in your specific situation, message me on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown or on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn, plus you can find my full positional and rookie rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com If you need IDP rankings you can find them on my website while I also do paid personalised rankings, as advertised on Razzball last year. Contact me if interested.