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We made it to Week One! I don’t know about you, but I am STOKED! We will have three days of NFL football and I may shed a happy tear. As we gear up for the first week in fantasy, I will provide start/sit recommendations utilizing Razzball’s TD Rushing/Receiving Share Tool.

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Start/Sit

  • Player: Javonte Williams
  • Week 1 Opponent: at Seattle
  • Recommendation: Start

I think this is a SMASH start for Williams. The Seahawks allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to RBs in 2023 with 19 TDs. The Broncos RB1 has the red zone and goal-line touches locked up with the release of Samaje Perine. Over his last 16 games, Williams received 53.8% of Denver’s red zone rushing attempts and is projected to score 51.5% of the Broncos’ rushing scores. Expect an RB2 finish in Week One.

  • Player: Brian Robinson Jr.
  • Week 1 Opponent: at Tampa Bay
  • Recommendation: Sit

Entering an RBBC in DC, Robinson and Austin Ekeler were each relied upon to handle 50% of their teams’ rushing attempts, red zone rushing attempts, and rushing scores in ’23. We’ve seen plenty of dual-threat QBs vulture TDs away from RBs and Jayden Daniels seems posied to fit the bill. The jury is still out in DC on which RB is trusted inside the 20 and the Commanders do not get an easy opponent in Week One. The Buccaneers allowed five rushing TDs to RBs in 2023, which was the fewest of all teams in the NFL. Tampa Bay did allow the second-most rushing TDs (6) to QBs in ’23.

  • Player: Gus Edwards
  • Week 1 Opponent: vs. Raiders
  • Recommendation: Start

New team, same scheme. The Chargers’ home opener is against rival Las Vegas Raiders who allowed the seventh most rushing attempts (23.4) and seventh-most receptions (5.24) per game to opposing RBs in ’23. As three-point favorites, Los Angeles should have a positive game script. Edwards led the Ravens’ number-one rushing attack in ’23 with 36.6% rushing share and 34.2% red zone rushing shares. I expect him to see a similar workload with 15-17 touches and a score in his first game with the Bolts. 

  • Player: Devin Singletary
  • Week 1 Opponent:  vs. Vikings
  • Recommendation: Sit

Saquan Barkley was responsible for 64% of the Giants’ rushing attempts over a 14-game span last season. During his time in Houston, Singletary was given 49.2% of the Texans’ rushing attempts. We like seeing an increase in touches, but Minnesota allowed the sixth-fewest points to RBs in ’23.  The potential increase in volume will not be sufficient for Week One success. If the preseason is any indication, the Giants may struggle to move the ball. I would avoid Singletary.

*Streamer Start*

  • Player(s): Tyjae Spears
  • Week 1 Opponent: at Chicago

Titans and Bears have the fifth-highest points total (45.5) according to the Vegas. Chicago allowed the most receptions (107), receiving yards (1,003), and the second-most receiving TDs (7) to RBs in ’23. Spears’ 14.2% target share ranked among the top seven of RBs. For context, the RB leader was Alvin Karam with an 18.4% target share.  In a potential shootout, he should be heavily involved in the passing game to produce fantasy points.

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# Name Team Pos Games

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