Week 5 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss Players Splits

Welcome to bye weeks. And games outside the U.S.

This week, the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennessee Titans have a bye. Each team will have a bye between now and Week 14 with the exceptions of Week 8 and Week 13. Looking ahead, Weeks 12 and 14 will hit harder with six teams off each week. Week 6 teams on bye are the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings. It’s not a bad idea to start looking ahead.

At 9:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday, October 6, the New York Jets visit the Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, U.K. There will be one game in London for each of the next three weeks and a game in Munich, Germany in Week 10.

Returning to the recent past, Week 4 was the second-highest scoring week of the 2024 NFL season: that certainly makes picking players to start easier, but it also makes picking players to sit more difficult.

I have to admit, when the first player I offered last week, Tank Dell, was all but declared out by his team mere hours after my article posted, I was worried that I was a jinx. In my first Razzball article in Week 2, I offered a quarterback to start who nearly had to retire after his game and a running back and tight end who didn’t show up until Week 3.

This is about perseverance and continual learning.

One more thing before we start: if I’m in a 10-team or a shallow 12-team league, I very well may not need the players I list except in dire times: they may not even be on rosters in those leagues.

Once again, welcome to Week 5. Let’s look at some players to start in our third wide receiver and flex spots; some to sit also. And if there is injury news adversely affecting any of the players below in the interim before gametime, I’ll amend my article in the comments section of that article on Razzball NFL.

STARTS

• Player: Dontayvion Wicks
• Team: Green Bay Packers
• Spread: -3.5 at Los Angeles Rams
• Win/Loss: +1.6, W/L Index 121

I’ve stated that I’d rather have Green Bay receivers in bestball formats than managed formats – I feel there are too many weapons there for them each to be consistent. But the matchup here is good if Wicks gets more snaps due to Christian Watson’s injury: Wicks is efficient (0.57 fantasy points per route run [FP/RR]), and an uptick in his route percentage could help his value. Wicks has been a sub for all three receiver spots in the Packers’ offense, but I expect him to be outside more in this game, where the Rams Tre’Davious White and Cobie Durant play. While I expect Wicks’ role to be in line with where it was in Week 4 once Watson left, I expect that some combination of Bo Melton and Malik Heath to assume at least part of Wicks’ normal role.

The Win/Loss splits give Wicks an edge in wins and the Packers are favored at SoFi Stadium. While the Rams have been competitive despite a slew of injuries, that will likely be up to their offense. The one worry I have is the Rams have allowed the most rushing yards through four weeks, so the Rams will need to keep this close.

• Player: Roschon Johnson
• Team: Chicago Bears
• Spread: -4.0 vs Carolina Panthers
• Win-Loss: +1.0, W/L Index 115

The last time I recommended a back as a flex against the Panthers, the Raiders came out and passed on four of their first six plays, had two three-and-outs, and fell behind 14-0. No other team has approached the Panthers that way – last week Cincinnati had two backs finish inside the top 17 for the week at the position in PPR. Roschon Johnson has had 37% of the Bears’ running back snaps each of the last two weeks and is versatile even though he had no targets in Week 4.

I said on Twitter on Sunday “If Roschon Johnson is the Bears’ goal line back, there’s value there in a depressed running back market.” I feel comfortable flexing him against the number 28 defense in offensive yards allowed, the number 29 defense in rushing yards allowed, and is banged up in the front seven. A low win/loss index helps reinforce that comfort.

• Player: Tutu Atwell
• Team: Los Angeles Rams
• Spread: +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
• Win/Loss: -2.2, W/L Index 74

I am offering up two receivers this week that are not only from the same game, but Atwell is low in most rankings. Two reasons: this game has one of the highest over/under props on the slate, and while the Packers’ secondary is capable of big plays, they give up points to the wide receiver position: Jaire Alexander missed Week 4 and did not practice Wednesday, Eric Stokes is allowing 0.40 FP/RR, and KaiSean Nixon is not stingy at 0.28 FP/RR in the slot. Atwell’s time is spent in all three WR positions and he’s played 98 snaps over the last two weeks, second only to Demarcus Robinson.

I don’t believe Atwell will be a volume receiver – he thrives farther down the field. The Rams may well need some big plays to keep pace with the Packers, and Atwell is one of their best weapons in that area. Atwell has fared better in losses since the beginning of 2023, and the Rams are underdogs.

SITS

•  Player: Xavier Worthy
• Team: Kansas City Chiefs
• Spread: -6.0 vs New Orleans Saints
• Win-Loss: N/A 

I’ve stayed away from rookies at this point because one of my goals is to make us aware of Razzball’s Win/Loss Player Splits database as a tool to help with decision-making. For the first time this season, 2024 rookies have been integrated into this database. So why did I pick a player that gives me no information in this area (small sample size plus Worthy has yet to play in a loss)? One, because I am likely to fade a player that is the football equivalent of a home-run hitter. Two, as uncharitable as Cam Taylor-Britt’s assessment of Worthy’s route-running ability was (“Speed. That’s about it. He can run straight”), I’m unconvinced it was entirely inaccurate. He had a 54-yard touchdown in Week 4, but only two other receptions for 19 yards – without the TD, that would have been his third straight week under 20 yards receiving. Three, the Saints’ secondary is formidable – Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, and Alontae Taylor are all solid at corner – and Dennis Allen is a first-rate defensive mind:

I’m betting he’ll allow Patrick Mahomes to nickel-and-dime the Saints with Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, Justin Watson, and whatever combination the Chiefs use of Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Four, I have this game as a low scorer. I won’t blame anyone who wants to go for the home run, but I’ll look elsewhere.

• Player: Josh Downs
• Team: Indianapolis Colts
• Spread: +3.0 at Jacksonville Jaguars
• Win-Loss: -1.8, W/L Index 83 

Josh Downs was a fantasy stud in Week 4. He’s a better player in fantasy over time in losses and the Colts are underdogs. So, what’s my problem with Downs for Week 5? My problem is with Anthony Richardson. The data points are limited, but Downs has yet to have more than 6 PPR points with Richardson under center for a full game. If for some reason, Richardson is not able to come back for this game, late-career Joe Flacco is the most fun fantasy quarterback this side of Jameis Winston, and I could have my mind changed.

I still think Jarrian Jones in the slot is the best cornerback on the banged-up Jaguars’ side, but Pittsburgh’s Beanie Bishop Jr. was a better matchup in Week 4. The W/L Index supports Downs performing better in losses, but not enough that I’m comfortable starting him this week.

• Player: Darnell Mooney
• Team: Atlanta Falcons
• Spread: -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Win-Loss: -0.6, W/L Index 91 

This may seem like punching down but of the wide receivers playing in Week 5, Mooney is 35th in PPR points. He’s playing nearly all of his team’s snaps. Opportunity is there, but the Falcons’ passing game has been “meh” with only four Kirk Cousins touchdown passes so far. Mooney should be a flex consideration most weeks, but I’m steering clear this week: the Bucs don’t give up a ton of yards passing.

Mooney is going to see Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum on the outside and they’re each allowing less than 0.25 FP/RR. There are better options above and below Mooney’s top 36 ranking this week.

That’s a wrap for this week. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 5!

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