Week 10 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

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This week, my domain grows.

As you might have noticed from the title, I will now be incorporating two of RazzballNFL’s FREE tools: the Win/Loss Player Splits and the Home/Road Player Splits. I’m the geek that loves data points and the more, the better. With the data points going all the way back to the beginning of the 2023 season, there are now as many as 26 games worth of data points. And if you look below the title, you’ll notice six tools are available for free: we invite people to familiarize themselves with them all.

The reason why I like combining data points is because I look at things from both a macro and micro point of view: macro gives me a way to look at trends and micro allows me to look at individual factors, while also allowing me to factor in volatility.

In Week 10, we get back Pittsburgh and San Francisco from byes while Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas, and Seattle have the week off. The Week 11 bye weeks will affect Arizona, Carolina, the New York Football Giants, and Tampa Bay. In Week 10, we also have the final international game between the Giants and Panthers in Munich, Germany. Plan accordingly.

For the numbers below for Win/Loss and Home/Road: a positive number means a player scores more in wins for Win/Loss and more at home for Home/Road; a negative number means a player scores more in losses for Win/Loss and more on the road for Home/Road. The index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in wins divided by PPR points scored in losses for Win/Loss and of PPR points scored in home games divided by those scored in road games: an index of 100 means the numbers are equal, more than 100 means the player scores more in wins (W/L) or at home (H/R), and less than 100 means the player scores more in losses (W/L) or on the road (H/R).

Let’s look at some players for Week 10 for WR 3 and flex spots.

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STARTS

Player: Calvin Ridley

Team: Tennessee Titans

Spread: +7.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

Win/Loss: +2.8, W/L Index 126

Home/Road: -4.8, H/R Index 67

I look at the indices and I see an arrow down for Win/Loss and an arrow up for Home/Road. There are other factors at play: Ridley played for Jacksonville in 2023, and Will Levis played quarterback the first five 2024 games for Tennessee.

Since Mason Rudolph took over in Week 7, Ridley has had 32 targets, 18 receptions, and 258 receiving yards. The fewest passes Rudolph has thrown is 33 in the three games he’s played. As good as the Chargers defense is (101 points and 10 touchdowns allowed in 8 games), they’re only 10^th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts. Ridley lines up wide 77% of the time and while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine gets more snaps (and the touchdowns), Ridley is by far the highest on the Titans in routes run, target percentage, and fantasy points per route run (FP/RR).

Things could scotch this: the Titans could start Will Levis, Tyjae Spears could return, or the Titans keep this game closer than expected. The Chargers defense doesn’t break often, but it does bend some.                       

Player: Jordan Addison

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Spread: -4.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Win-Loss: +0.9, W/L Index 107

Home/Road: +0.0, H/R Index 100

Players don’t get much more neutral than this in these indices. I wish Addison was more consistent, but against the league’s 4^th friendliest defense to wide receivers, I have to get him in my lineups.

The Vikings line their receivers up all over the formation but Addison plays 65% of his snaps and scores 71% of his points as a wideout, and at 27.4 PPR PPG, Jacksonville allows the most points to wideouts.

I can’t help but think the presence of T.J. Hockenson on the field is a boon to all the Vikings’ receivers. Addison is capable of doing a fair amount of damage with limited targets. A touchdown would help here.

Player: Rhamondre Stevenson

Team: New England Patriots

Spread: +6.0 at Chicago Bears

Win-Loss: -1.4, W/L Index 89

Home/Road: +0.6, H/R Index 105

I’m surprised Stevenson would be ranked in the 20s for running backs, but if I can flex him, I’m all for it. It’s a small sample, but in the two full games Stevenson has played with Drake Maye, he’s scored 23.5 and 22.4 PPR points. And he was part of one of the highlights of the year: if you haven’t seen the last ditch, game-tying play in Week 9 game at Tennessee, treat yourself and find it.

The Bears can be murder on receivers but are only 21^st in fantasy vs. running backs and allow 5.1 targets per game to running backs.

The Patriots aren’t very good, but they’re committed to the run and Drake Maye is fun. Stevenson has a tendency to produce more in losses and is close to neutral home/road.

 

 

SITS

 Player: Michael Pittman Jr

Team: Indianapolis Colts

Spread: +4.0 vs Buffalo Bills

Win/Loss: +3.6, W/L Index 133

Home/Road: -1.7, H/R Index 87

 A healthy Michael Pittman does not belong in this bucket.

This is not a healthy Michael Pittman.

Going into Week 6, it looked very much like Pittman was going to be placed on IR due to a back injury that surfaced in the Week 5 game only to have the team do an about face and designate him questionable going into the game at Tennessee. He’s played every week since.

In that time, he’s had 8 receptions on 20 targets for 128 yards. If this wasn’t Michael Pittman, I’d tell you to drop him.

The next two weeks the Colts face the 6^th best defense vs. wide receivers in fantasy and the best defense. There is nothing about this I like.

Player: Javonte Williams

Team: Denver Broncos

Spread: +8.0 at Kansas City Chiefs

Win/Loss: +4.4, W/L Index 152

Home/Road: -0.9, H/R Index 92

 At this point, it must look like I have a problem with Javonte Williams. I assure you, I do not. I like Javonte Williams. But I don’t like running backs going against the best defense vs. running backs in 2024. The W/L Index supports this. Javonte is slightly better on the road but not enough to move the needle.

Javonte does have the ability to make me eat my words. He had 84 scrimmage yards and two receptions against a stingy Ravens defense vs. the run. But the Chiefs are also stingy vs. the pass.

Williams also has only 2 TDs in 2024 and those both came in Week 7. Jaleel McLaughlin has half the production and 1 more TD.

There will come a week I will jump to start Williams. I would cringe to do it this week.

Player: Quentin Johnston

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: -7.5 vs Tennessee Titans

Win/Loss: +4.0, W/L Index 171

Home/Road: -3.2, H/R Index 64

 Quentin Johnston just had one of his best days as a pro. That was against one of the seven friendliest fantasy defenses to wideouts.

The Titans are the seventh-best fantasy defense against wideouts. They’re also top-6 in funneling to the slot. I like Ladd McConkey this week over Johnston in what should be a fairly low-scoring game.

The W/L Index supports Johnston, the Home/Road Index supports me. I’ll give this to other data points.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 10!