Touchdown Rushing/Receiving Share Tool – WR Tandems

The TD Rushing/Receiving Share Tool returns for the 2025 season. This tool provides valuable insights into RB rushing team share, rushing red zone team share, and rushing touchdown team share. It also provides WR and RB receiving target team share, receiving red zone target team share, and receiving touchdown team share. Let’s dig into the numbers utilizing our model and other metrics to interpret target shares along with red zone target shares and touchdown production for intriguing WR tandems at cost in drafts. 

Our model identifies players who had anomalously high or low rushing and receiving TD rates over a rolling 18-week period of regular season games (including the previous season) with a minimum of four games played. The TD models for rushing and receiving are position-specific and derived based on the player’s overall and red zone shares in games they played 1+ snaps.

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Wide Receivers 

• Team: Green Bay Packers 
• Wide Receivers: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson & Matthew Golden

I am fascinated with the Packers’ WR room as Green Bay continues to be an elite offense on paper. They rank in the top 10 for points scored and total yards. The issue for fantasy is that their top WR, Jayden Reed, finished as the WR29. He was third third-highest targeted WR on the team despite running the most routes on the team, while leading all Packer WRs with six TDs. 

Romeo Doubs leads the squad with 18.5% target share and 18.8% redzone target share. He finished his ’24 season second in receptions, touchdowns, and routes in 13 games played. On per per-game basis, Doubs was the WR51, while Reed was WR42. 

Lastly, there is Christian Watson. He was supposed to be the Packers’ go-to playmaker, but it just has not panned out. He’s the fourth most targeted WR of the bunch and tallied a mere two TDs in 15 games before tearing his ACL in January. Interestingly, he has the highest Green Bay WR aDOT at 17.57. Doubs is second at 11.01, and Reed has the lowest at 7.85. 

The Packers brass felt the need to improve their WR core by selecting Matthew Golden in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Golden has elite speed after posting a 4.29 40-yard dash. In his final year in college, he tallied an aDOT of 13.5, showcasing his play-making ability. I can see him take targets away from Reed in the short game, the intermediate area from Doubs, and getting the deep shots while Watson recovers. 

Fantasy Implications: Matt LaFleur tends to spread the ball around with Jordan Love, and I cannot envision that changing right away this season. Watson will be out a good chunk of the season, allowing for a golden opportunity for the former Longhorn to showcase his abilities. Reed should be the most consistent option again, while Doubs has the safest floor and Golden has the most upside. Their ADPs are Golden WR44, Reed WR46, and Doubs WR69. If I wanted a Packer WR, I would prefer taking a gamble on Golden’s potential to be WR1.

• Team: Los Angeles Chargers 
• Wide Receivers: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Tre Harris & Keenan Allen

McConkey dominated a rookie last year, posting 25.5% target share (top 20), 18.2% red zone target share, and 34.8% TD share (top 20) for the Chargers. McConkey was WR12. The consensus expects similar results as he is the WR11 and 25th player off draft boards. 

The WR2 in LA could have some sneaky value. Johnston drew 21.1 target share, a team-high 24.5 red zone target share, and recorded s team-high right TDs. He tallied the most receiving yards by a WR2 under Greg Roman’s offense. I view this as Roman evolving his offense to fit the skill set of his QB and the pass-heavy era of the NFL, which bodes well for fantasy. 

Entering his third season, Johnston has rave reviews in camp despite some brutal drops. He has 10 drops through two seasons, with seven drops alone last season. If his drops continue, he could lose targets to the Chargers’ new rookie, Tre Harris. Harris was selected in the second round, who has a big frame at 6’2” and could be a red zone target as he replaces Joshua Palmer, who posted a 19.6% red zone target share.

Fantasy Implications: Keenan Allen has been rumored to return to the Chargers. The reunion makes sense. However, this would reduce all the WR values in LA, specifically Johnston and Harris. McConkey falls to a third-round pick based on Allen’s rapport with Herbert. They posted a 32% target share in ’23. If Allen does not return, I would prioritize the wee Ladd in the second and pass on Harris (WR53) in the 11th round to take a flier on Johnston (WR66).

• Team: Los Angeles Rams   
• Wide Receivers: Pucka Nucua & Davante Adams

This WR duo ranks within the top three in the NFL. As for fantasy, I have my concerns. The alpha WR in LA is Nucua after pushing Cooper Kupp as the second option in the passing offense. He finished the ’24 season as the third-best WR, averaging 18.8 points per game while scoring at least 17 points in eight games from Week 8 to Week 1.  Nucua is one of three WRs to have at least 30% (30.32) target share. He procuded these numbers despite hauling in only three TDs. Our projections showed he should have tallied at least seven TDs in his 12 games. 

Adams has an ADP of WR17 as the 38th selection in early drafts. I cannot get on board with this. Yes, he finished as the WR11 along with a 29.5% target share and 38% redzone target share between Vegas and the New York Jets. However, Kupp finished as WR22 while posting 24.8% and 16.1% redzone target share. If we all agree that Nacua is a top-five WR, I am not so sure his WR2, no matter how talented, can finish as high as the WR17 with a reduced role in LA. 

Fantasy Implications:  Nucua is worth a selection in the first round as the WR5. I will be targeting him in the first round. The addition of Adams should help Nacua see more man coverage, boosting his fantasy output. Due to Adams’ draft capital, I prefer Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, and Rashee Rice to fortify my receiving corps as my WR2. 

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