If you’ve been along on this A Man For Early Seasons article journey with me, thank you. I could not have made it this far without you. The format and series carry on like a premium cable television series about a serial killer who kills serial killers. It’s gone on as far as it really can, it’s ending, but wait, what’s that? It’s going to be coming back later this year! I personally think Deb is going to be his new conscious like his dad was in the first few seasons, but back to the fantasy. We are looking at early season matchups to play, fade, or stream entering the 2021 fantasy football season. Today we focus on the tight ends, which, unlike wide receivers, teams allowed the least amount of fantasy points per game. Only the Jets and Bears allowed more than fifteen PPR fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. On average teams only allowed 12.6 PPR fantasy points a game. The margin between average points and twenty-eight of the thirty-two teams was within 2.8 PPR fantasy points per game. We are leaving out the top names like Travis Kelce and Darren Waller because if you are spending the draft capital, you are essentially committed. Also, they seem matchup-proof to a large degree. Below is a chart of each team’s first four weeks of the season, where their weekly opponents ranked in allowing fantasy points to the tight end, and the average ranking of those teams.
BEST STARTS
Blake Jarwin – Dallas Cowboys
Start: @TB (12th), @LAC (11th), PHI (10th), CAR (9th)
Blake Jarwin was a tight end many were waiting to breakout last season, but he tore his ACL after only his first reception ending his 2020 campaign. Dalton Schultz filled in respectfully with eighty-nine targets, sixty-three receptions, and four touchdowns finishing as the TE17. Not what the Cowboys were hoping for, but much of that can also be attributed to Dak Prescott being out. Jarwin should have little trouble reclaiming his role with a better career catch percentage, yards per completion, and average depth per target. The Cowboys have a rather loaded receiver group, but I am looking for Jarwin to have a better start as the receiver matchups in the first four weeks pose some challenges. His average draft position is also fantastic right now as he is going as the twenty-second tight end off the board according to NFC ADP.
Jordan Akins – Houston Texans
Start: JAC (3rd), @CLE (4th), CAR (9th), @BUF 8th)
There really isn’t too much to love about the Houston Texans in 2021, but with Darren Fells departing for Detroit and an opening schedule against teams who gave up the most fantasy points to tight ends in 2020, I like the opportunity for Jordan Atkins. It does appear the Texans will be without quarterback Deshaun Watson, which leaves the team to Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills. The Texans used a second-round pick on Mills, but all signs point to Taylor getting the nod to at least start the season. Taylor is not much of a downfield threat for defenses, but he does do great at checking the ball down to his slot receivers and more frequently tight ends. Enter Atkins, who last season averaged four receptions a game in four out of his last five games and this was with him splitting work with Fells. Atkins is the most established and talented of the tight ends in Houston and I have no concerns about the Texans giving much work to fifth-round draft pick Brevin Jordan to start the season. If you are waiting until late on a tight end, Atkins is a great target.
PLAYERS TO FADE
Gerald Everett – Seattle Seahawks
Start: @IND (30th), TEN (13th), @MIN (19th), @SF (32nd)
While there may be a couple of decent matchups sprinkled in the beginning of their season, the fact remains the Seahawks will face the three toughest teams against tight ends in their first six weeks. At this point, there seems to be no reason to draft Everett in his first season away from the division-rival Los Angeles Rams if you are going to be streaming tight end. He should be widely available on the waiver wire throughout the season. He hits another rough patch later in the season with a repeat matchup against the best team against tight ends, San Francisco, and three of the seven other best teams against the position. He is currently being drafted before Blake Jarwin, Anthony Firkser, and Austin Hooper all of which have better opening matchups on the season, as well as season long. I would much rather have any of those three over Everett, especially at their draft value.
Adam Trautman – New Orleans
Start: GB (29th), @CAR (9th), @NE (28th), NYG (24th)
There have been few players talked up more for 2021 than Adam Trautman. It cannot be denied he has a great opportunity in front of him with both starting wide receivers possibly out to start the season. Michael Thomas is out until at least week seven and Tre’Quan Smith is dealing with an undisclosed training camp injury. However, we still do not know who the Saints quarterback will be when they step on the field in week one against the fourth-best team against tight ends last season, the Green Bay Packers. The matchups from there aren’t much better having to face the Patriots, Giants, and Football Team’s very good defenses in a five-week period. Those four teams allowed less than eleven PPR fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. The fading recommendation is only temporary as after their week six bye, things get much better. Eight of their remaining eleven games are against teams in the top third in allowing fantasy points to tight ends. If Trautman does have a rocky start, teams might be eager to cut him free to allow you a pickup off the waiver wire or a buy-low trade.
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KILLER LATE ROUND TANDEMS
Cole Kmet- Chicago Bears & Austin Hooper – Cleveland Browns
Start: @KC (7th), CIN (6th), CHI (2nd), DET (15th)
The combination of most redraft fantasy teams drafting only one tight end and a small difference in point totals leads me to using a tandem style if you miss on one of the big earlier round guys. There is no other late-round tandem I’d rather roll out with than Cole Kmet and Austin Hooper. Sure, Jesse James caught the touchdown on Saturday, but it has been Fields and Kmet putting the time together this offseason. Kmet averaged six targets a game in his final five games of 2021, but now he has a quarterback who loves targeting his tight ends in the red zone. For those saying Dalton will start the season, I don’t disagree with you. Once week two at home against Cincinnati rolls around I am fully expecting Fields is the starting quarterback. To avoid Andy Dalton in week one, I love pairing Kmet with Hooper in Cleveland. He was second on the Browns in targets in 2020 with four touchdowns and doesn’t look to be losing much of a role to either the fading David Njoku or second-year fourth-round draft pick Harrison Bryant. Odell Beckham is returning to the Browns lineup, but Hooper was still managing 5.5 targets per game with him on the field.
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I mentioned earlier much like Dexter, the schedule reviews will have a limited run again this season. Approaching the trade deadline, I am going to highlight some players with great playoff runs you can either make deals for or possibly grab off the waiver wire. Next week I will be going over my 2021 Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts. Speaking of busts, I just visited the Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio where I got to see more bronze than a United States Olympic run. If there were a Hall of Fame for draft prep, Rudy Gamble’s Razzball Site Tools would be a first-ballot inductee. We are offering a free three-day trial of both our Roto and DFS packages to help you bring home your 2021 fantasy championships. On Friday late morning, I will be doing a Reddit Ask Me Anything on behalf of Razzball. You can follow me on Twitter to get the link for the online social event of the year when it is posted on Friday.
