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Before his trade from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles on Tuesday, Dorial Green-Beckham was a late round WR4/WR5 flyer, at best. But DGB was also somebody that people just couldn’t seem to agree on. His average WR ADP was around 50, with some experts ranking him as high as 31 and other ranking him closer to 90. Some touted his untapped potential (and 6’5”, 235 lb frame) and the talent he has flashed in the past, while others have pointed out his overall lack of production and his tendency to disappear (see weeks 1, 5, 7, 10, and 16 last year, when he had exactly zero catches).

At first glance, he is instantly the second best receiver (behind only Jordan Matthews) on an Eagles team that is desperate for playmakers at the position. However, it might not be that simple. Off the field issues aside, DGB faces a number of obstacles on his way to becoming a significant contributor in Philadelphia.

For starters, he has to learn a new offense. That isn’t a huge deal when you sign with a new team in March or April, but we’re halfway through August. Training camps are winding down, there are only a few preseason games left before the season starts, and Green-Beckham isn’t going to play in the team’s next game on Thursday night. It may not seem like a big deal, but he has a TON of information to digest in a short period of time. Not a small feat; NFL playbooks are complex.

Then there is the offense itself. With Captain Checkdown Sam Bradford at quarterback and questions along the offensive line (Lane Johnson’s suspension, Jason Peters’s age/injury history, and a camp battle to determine the starting LG), rookie head coach Doug Pederson is likely to play it safe and rely on his running game. If you watched Philadelphia’s first preseason game, you saw Chase Daniel get beaten up by free or mostly-free rushers for two quarters before handing the reigns over to Carson Wentz just in time for Wentz to have his ribs broken by a free rusher. BREAKING: that offensive line is no bueno and has no depth. Also, with a lack of playmaking receivers to rely on, the Eagles are likely to run a decent amount of two and three tight end sets with Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, and Trey Burton.

But Wait, There’s Upside… The upside here is that, like I said, DGB is instantly the second best receiver on the Eagles. That’s why they made the trade. Oh, and their best receiver, Jordan Matthews, is currently hurt and isn’t a lock to be ready for the regular season opener. Other than Matthews, the Eagles have Nelson Agholor, Rueben Randle, Chris Givens, Josh Huff, and a pile of other stiffs on the depth chart.

Agholor is last year’s first round pick and had a disappointing rookie season, which you know all too well if you made the mistake of drafting him last year. While he is still listed as a starter for now, he is going to have to produce if he wants to keep that job, especially with a new coaching staff in town (a situation DGB is familiar with, as he was just shipped out of town by a new coaching staff). Randle has disappointed thus far, and there is speculation that he isn’t even a lock to make the team at this point. Ditto for Josh Huff. Givens is a speedster on his third team in five years.

The point? Dorial Green-Beckham doesn’t exactly have a lot of competition for playing time. If he proves he can pick up the offense quickly and make some plays, he is going to be on the field. The Eagles went out and traded him for a reason (other than only having to give up Dennis Kelly to get him), and they are going to give him his chances. If he works hard and continues to get better, this trade could be a steal for the Eagles (although, to be fair, trading Dennis Kelly for a cold glass of water could have been considered a steal).

But none of that is a given. Chip Kelly’s up tempo offense is gone, and Doug Pederson looks to be running a more conservative offense, similar to what he ran in Kansas City the last few years. DGB is leaving one run-heavy team for a team that seems to be transitioning to a more run-based offense, albeit it one with west coast offense principles. He will get his chances (at least whenever Bradford isn’t immediately checking down to the flats) to earn more playing time and targets, but that is pretty much all we know at this point.

So, When Should You Draft Him?… Honestly, I would stay away from him until late, and I might stay away from him altogether unless you have a league with large rosters and can stash him. At best, maybe take a flyer on him as a WR5 in deeper leagues based on potential and red zone targets alone (remember, he is a dreamy 6’5”). As for ADP, I would rank him closer to WR 90 than WR 30, for sure. In shallower leagues and leagues with smaller rosters, he will likely go undrafted.

At that point in drafts, I would be more likely to take a flyer on a guy like Braxton Miller as a draft and stash guy if I had the roster spots. Or if you are looking for a WR4/WR5 around the WR ADP 55-65 mark, you might be better off grabbing Laquon Treadwell, Tajae Sharpe, Chris Hogan, or Will Fuller.

 

 

  1. Zach

    Zach says:
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    I’m pretty high on Ertz, I’m hoping Pederson’s style of offense is more ideal for guys like Ertz (his offense in KC really benefited Kelce), but I totally see how he’s pretty much free at the end of drafts with not much risk or downside involved.

    But do you think Darren Sproles gets any significant work out of the backfield?

    Great read nonetheless! Do you have a Twitter account I can follow you by?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Zach:

      Thanks, Zach.

      I think Sproles gets a bunch of work out of the backfield and gets split out a bit to see if they can get him matched up on linebackers. Pederson has already said as much. Mathews is the starter, but Sproles is going to play. They love Sproles and just extended his contract for a year, so he’ll get his looks.

      I like Ertz and think they’ll look to get creative with him, too, especially with the lack of talent at WR. Whether or not Bradford gets him the ball enough is another question, but I think you’re right about Ertz. They will roll out plenty of 2 and 3 TE sets this year.

      I’m @mikeMaher on Twitter – https://twitter.com/mikeMaher

  2. Mike says:
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    Do you think he is worth $20/$250 in a dynasty league? It’s a bit too expensive for me because I already have Brown, Beckham Jr, Hopkins, and Kevin White but I got them all on the cheap so I can afford him. My WRs are stacked, but I’m keeping a ton of guys so the price I will pay for DGB this year isn’t cheap considering I will have about $29 left for the draft if I do. I’m considering dropping him and keeping Bridgewater for $6 but I just traded Jordan Matthews for Bortles and I’m not sure if either player is worth the cost.
    Cheers

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Mike:

      ehhhh, that would be a bit steep for me.

  3. Eric says:
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    This is probably a really dumb question but my league is doing 0.5 points per reception, per rush attempt, and per pass reception. Haha does this mean I should be looking more towards the Non PPR rankings and boost up RBs more? Do QBs fall or what? Thanks, having a bit of a time trying to customize rankings for this league.

    • Eric says:
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      @Eric:

      Oh, and are there any guys that you feel get a surprising boost in this particular scoring format?

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @Eric: This question was too juicy for me to ignore…

        If you are tech savvy enough to stick projections into a spreadsheet then do that. Of course the projections will need to have rush attempts (etc.) or you’ll have to assign a rough approximation of them (rush attempts) yourself. So you’ll adjust the fantasy points column of the projections according to those scoring settings. But hopefully your league will show you the 2015 stats w/ your scoring settings because that would give you a good idea. An ESPN or Yahoo! league would certainly display it that way.

        But yeah man because a high number of receptions is 120 while a feature back can have 300 or more attempts + receptions.. just think about that.

        And I want to assume by “per pass reception” you meant per pass completion? If that’s the case you can’t really knock QBs down in the rankings too much, can you?

        This league will be all about starting as many high volume backs as your RB + FLEX spots will allow. It’s actually kind of a silly scoring system in my opinion because it becomes way too much about RB carries. Your bench should also be mostly RBs because any RB with a decent workload will typically score more than any but the really good WRs. Like, even a 15 carry 50 yard game w/o a TD is decent and in fact on par with what a pretty good WR will average in fantasy points.

        I hope you like predicting the workloads of non-feature backs..

        What say you, Mike? :)

        • Eric says:
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          @RotoLance:

          Hahaha this is what I figured, thanks for the analysis. I think this would make our league really boring so I’ll propose something else to the commish. Thanks for the in depth analysis! Much appreciated. You saved one fantasy league from early inattention.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Eric: You could suggest a rock paper scissors league. It might be more fair.

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @RotoLance:

          Can’t say I disagree with you much here, Roto. I would hate a league that RB carries, though I see what they are trying to do (trying to balance out the scoring output for positions). There are definitely easier ways to do that, though.

  4. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    If you aren’t an Eagles fan than you might know a little too much about football (offensive line situations, etc) for me to feel comfortable….

    Sorry if I missed it in the article, I went over it pretty fast, but what the hell does the Eagles depth chart even look like now? I assume they’ve kept Agholor running ahead of Rueben Randle but is it a given that it stays that way? I suppose Randle is garbage, but might he actually be better than Agholor?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @RotoLance:

      Haha, you didn’t miss any mentions of fandom in the article. I definitely follow some teams closer than others.

      I would say nothing is a given when it comes to the Eagles WR situation. I think they brought in Randle with the idea that he could push for one of the starting jobs on the outside or come in and play when they go to 3 WR sets. However, from everything I have read and seen (not only did he look pretty meh in the first preseason game, he also looked pretty lazy, which was something that Giants fans have complained about for years), Randle has not exactly impressed this offseason.

      Neither has Agholor, which is one of the reasons the Eagles made this trade, I think. The only lock for playing time is Jordan Matthews. After him, it’s all up in the air at this point. I do think that they are likely to give Agholor the first shot and the longest leash, though.

      Thanks for reading and commenting, btw.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @mikeMaher: The reason I read this was curiosity. That curiosity came from your superb title. It’s a title that’s bound to increase page views because we have to at least glance at the post to get an idea of where you stand.

  5. Shivdaddy says:
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    10 team, 6 points for qb TD. 1 Keeper @ round he was drafted. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Def, K

    First off, I dont have a first round pick this year as I went for it last year.

    Keeper Options

    Davonte Freeman *round 7 – could be round 9 if Brandon Marshal is kept by another owner
    DeAndre Hopkins *round 4
    Jordy Nelson *round 10

    I think you could make a case for each of them if you wanted. Please help me out here. My first pick will pick 14 overall.

    Thanks for any help!

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Shivdaddy:

      I think you’re right, you can make the case for each of them.

      My gut says Freeman (ADP 21). Maybe i’m biased because, like you, I drafted him last year and then swooooooned over him as I watched him put up points.

      Round 4 is great value for Hopkins (ADP in the top 10), but 7/9 or 10 is even better value for the other two, so I say Freeman.

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